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Post by shoc13 on Jan 21, 2013 10:20:15 GMT -8
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Post by mstefa on Jan 21, 2013 10:23:29 GMT -8
I was just about to post it. Calculation doesn't have obvious flaws and looks like a nice upside surprise: " Paying that value forward yields 770,000 iDevices per day for a total of 69M iDevices for 1Q2013. Extrapolating that result to dollars produces sales of $58B and $14B in profit." and " or the upside surprise, we have to assume when Apple announces that it had over 500M App Store accounts, the huge majority of those accounts were added before Christmas. With that assumption, we can back up some sales. Then what we find is that 1Q 2013 delivers 83M iDevices with revenue of $70B and profit of $17B. " intriguing.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 21, 2013 10:33:12 GMT -8
To the mods: On the old AFB, the discussions of various aspects of Apple were in separate threads. On this site, it is always one long stream. I really enjoy this site and the posters as much as any site I have used. I would much prefer to see the separate threads, for many reasons. Even on this one weekend thread, there is an extended discussion of iPhone screen sizes, and also a general discussion of stock manipulation. Should not these be in separate threads? Also the top-level categories and not good, e.g. iStull, AAPL News (how is that different from Intraday updates?), Apple fundamentals vs AAPL technicals, etc. Confusing. The old organization was better in my opinion. You might like this better: on the menu at the top of the screen, click NEW TOPICS.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 10:39:16 GMT -8
Big displays, btw, solve absolutely nothing if Apple doesn't increase pixel size. See - same tiny text on iPad status bar just like iPhones.
For the rest there's pinch and zoom and some font sizing preferences.
If it's an iOS revolution you want then I doubt you'll get it. OS X - no revolutions since 2001.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 21, 2013 10:45:36 GMT -8
Here is my thought. The market makers on apple's options (those that sold calls to retail investors like me) probably acquired common shares as a hedge for the calls they sold. That can help explain the parabolic run we experienced - smart money was selling calls and buying shares at the same time. Now that apple's jan exp has occurred - we hopefully have them on our side as the shares they bought can run up for a bit. Once apple gets to a certain level - market makers will rinse and repeat. Lets see what tues brings. Yes, but the part missing - what we will call "manipulation" - is that the MM's can also dump those shares at key times to lower the stock price to avoid paying off certain call strikes. It's done by algos, not actual people who look like Ming the Merciless, stroking their mustaches, saying, "now my plan for market manipulation shall commence!" Ming, plotting to fuck retail options traders. The same can happen in reverse, to avoid paying off a put wall, their algos will buy shares. And when these algos kick in, other HFT triggers are tripped, and it leads to a direction in the stock that our TA friends observe in their squiggly lines (i.e., Chaikin Chicken Entrails Indicator, et al). Why on earth would a sophisticated firm want to be a market maker if they couldn't rig the game participate? If the SEC rules for MM's were, "to provide liquidity, you shall write any contract anyone wants to buy, and then you have to sit back and watch what happens, and you cannot participate in the trading of the underlying security," nobody would be a market maker. Would you? But the rules don't say that, so of course they participate in the trading of the underlying stock. And you think the MM's algorithmic buying and selling of securities like AAPL have no subroutines for what is happening around option expiration? With hundreds of millions of dollars at stake? There is no SEC rule that says, "when approaching the expiration of an option strike you sold, you may not dump or buy shares." Nobody would write option contracts if that were the case. So why wouldn't they do it then? Because it would be uncool to do so?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 10:46:07 GMT -8
One thing that there's broader agreement on probably? Apple is always benchmarking. They have prototypes of larger screened iPhones for sure.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 21, 2013 10:48:39 GMT -8
... Prior to that I had a Blackberry Curve, but that was primarily a work-only device at the time. I was thinking of holding out to wait for the Blackberry 10, but I was also waiting for the iPhone 5 and hoping for a larger screen. Rumours of Blackberry 10's 4.2" screen didn't impress me - I was looking for 4.7" screen or bigger ... As I suspected. Galaxy users are mostly ex-Black Berry users. Well, I did have an iPhone 3GS for 4 years...much longer than I actually had my Curve. In fact I also had an original iPhone (still have it).
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 21, 2013 10:59:19 GMT -8
I'm watching a fairly effective commercial for Samsung during the game ( unicorns) and that T-mobile lady in the pink and black jumpsuit is still flying all over the country.... Everyone advertises.... Agree Red, but Apple has not advertised as much in the past, I like it. Actually, Apple dropped $75M in ads on the iPod release. That was 12 years ago, so that would be close to $100M in today's dollars. Hopefully, the Apple PTB's looked at SAMEsung's marketing budget and decided to spend some of that cash hoard on ads. And BTW, I thought the unicorn ad was quirky and mildly amusing, but not effective as to why one should buy a SAMEsung. Because some deluded, dorky video game startup geeks use the phone, my 14-yr-old niece should buy the phone? And halfway through the ad, I was asking, "WTF are they selling here?" And comparing it against a Blackberry? Might was well stick a RAZR in the ad and make fun of it too.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 21, 2013 11:00:10 GMT -8
Here is my thought. The market makers on apple's options (those that sold calls to retail investors like me) probably acquired common shares as a hedge for the calls they sold. That can help explain the parabolic run we experienced - smart money was selling calls and buying shares at the same time. Now that apple's jan exp has occurred - we hopefully have them on our side as the shares they bought can run up for a bit. Once apple gets to a certain level - market makers will rinse and repeat. Lets see what tues brings. Yes, but the part missing - what we will call "manipulation" - is that the MM's can also dump those shares at key times to lower the stock price to avoid paying off certain call strikes. It's done by algos, not actual people who look like Ming the Merciless, stroking their mustaches, saying, "now my plan for market manipulation shall commence!" Another aspect of price manipulation that is not explained simply by the closing of open contracts, is the price movements outside of regular trading hours when options trading is not available. We still see some significant moves at critical times in the options calendar which cannot be explained by the news or market mechanics. Also the opening print each day can be hugely manipulated and requires no trades apart from that first print to have occurred at all.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 21, 2013 11:05:02 GMT -8
I agree with everything you stated below Phoe. I have no desire to have a phone with a larger screen and yes, I am a man. With that being said I do believe that there is a market for a phone with a larger screen, especially for men that feel some how inadequate in other ways The last sentence was just for humor, send the lynch mob home I may be in a minority on this board but i absolutely love the size of the screen and the size of the iPhone 5. As a female, it makes the previous iPhones feel like a brick. I can do everything with one hand now (don't go there - be grown ups) and can't help but wonder what the gender split is with the buyers of all iPhones. Just wondering. There is, as you pointed out, I believe a significant market for a larger screen. It's nothing about insignificance, but for sure us older folk - 40+ have aging eyes and having a large screen is a high desireable. After using my Galaxy Note II for a couple months now I have to say I am amazed I waited so long for a larger screen phone. When I pick up my iPhone 3GS I can't imagine how I used that tiny screen for all those years. It feels like a toy compared to my Note II. Now, I'm all for Apple - I am a shareholder after all, and I think they make better products, but I do believe they have to cater to different market segments more (they have started this with the iPad mini - and look at what a success that is). They need to continue to segment the iPhone with more colours, sizes, and prices (like a cheaper phone for emerging markets I do believe is a good idea). A "one size fits all" phone doesn't cut it anymore in the (now maturing) smartphone market. Of course this is really not innovation - that part was already done with the original iPhone. Apple also will need the next big thing to drive further growth. I'm hoping that is the iTV.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2013 11:11:17 GMT -8
looks like 504 close in Frankfurt Wednesday Close at $504 and 2% pop AH puts AAPL at $514 just in time for my $505/$510 Call Spreads
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2013 11:15:46 GMT -8
They (goog) don't charge for the OS and hardware vendors hate licensing. Their love of profits can, does and will offset their hate of licensing.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 21, 2013 11:21:03 GMT -8
There is no SEC rule that says, "when approaching the expiration of an option strike you sold, you may not dump or buy shares." Nobody would write option contracts if that were the case. So why wouldn't they do it then? Because it would be uncool to do so? Great post! +1 to all of it!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 21, 2013 11:47:29 GMT -8
Agree Red, but Apple has not advertised as much in the past, I like it. Actually, Apple dropped $75M in ads on the iPod release. That was 12 years ago, so that would be close to $100M in today's dollars. Hopefully, the Apple PTB's looked at SAMEsung's marketing budget and decided to spend some of that cash hoard on ads. And BTW, I thought the unicorn ad was quirky and mildly amusing, but not effective as to why one should buy a SAMEsung. Because some deluded, dorky video game startup geeks use the phone, my 14-yr-old niece should buy the phone? And halfway through the ad, I was asking, "WTF are they selling here?" And comparing it against a Blackberry? Might was well stick a RAZR in the ad and make fun of it too. JD, I think this was Samsung's opening salvo to pick up the Blackberry users who will....finally.....abandon ship when Blackberry 10 disappoints. BB was always about physical keyboard and security. Both strengths (if you call a physical keyboard a strength..some love them) are now deeply eroded. Samsung wants those BB diehards...
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 21, 2013 12:03:59 GMT -8
Actually, Apple dropped $75M in ads on the iPod release. That was 12 years ago, so that would be close to $100M in today's dollars. Hopefully, the Apple PTB's looked at SAMEsung's marketing budget and decided to spend some of that cash hoard on ads. And BTW, I thought the unicorn ad was quirky and mildly amusing, but not effective as to why one should buy a SAMEsung. Because some deluded, dorky video game startup geeks use the phone, my 14-yr-old niece should buy the phone? And halfway through the ad, I was asking, "WTF are they selling here?" And comparing it against a Blackberry? Might was well stick a RAZR in the ad and make fun of it too. JD, I think this was Samsung's opening salvo to pick up the Blackberry users who will....finally.....abandon ship when Blackberry 10 disappoints. BB was always about physical keyboard and security. Both strengths (if you call a physical keyboard a strength..some love them) are now deeply eroded. Samsung wants those BB diehards... I know, but it seems like an awful lot of work to go after BB's 1.6% US market share, half of which they will likely get by default. Any chance of an Apple Super Bowl ad this year?
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Post by Rupert on Jan 21, 2013 12:22:28 GMT -8
Nick Nansen's case for stock split and BOD reaction to manipulation. Time For Apple TO Show The LovePosted on January 21, 2013 LINK: nanseninvestments.com/
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Post by appledoc on Jan 21, 2013 12:32:33 GMT -8
This is what happens when sentiment is bad. A larger iPhone is a gimmick. It adds next to nothing. But if idiots want to buy it, maybe Apple should sell it to them. Doc, Calling us idiots because you have not thought this through is shameful. If you think about it, the 5 was a bigger screen than the 4/4S. Hello! So was it not necessary and a gimmick then? When Apple went to a taller screen, the scaling should have allowed for some width to be added and retain the retina display. What people like me look for Apple to do is increase the screen size but not increase the form factor much. What Apple has done with the ipad mini is amazing, they can do it with the iphone. It wasn't my intention to call you guys idiots. Sorry for lumping you into the lame "OMG small iPhone screen is so stupid my 20" Galaxy is the best". With that said, I guess my comment was short sighted. I'm just not a fan of a larger screen, and if we take what TC said about the 5 at face value, the company isn't either. I don't think phablets are the next big thing. And I would hope Apple doesn't jump into the 5" device space. The 4" screen on the iPhone 5 is PERFECTION. Just my two cents. Sorry to anyone I offended.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 12:33:48 GMT -8
appledoc, just be watching that broad brush and you'll be fine.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 21, 2013 12:37:52 GMT -8
Actually, Apple dropped $75M in ads on the iPod release. That was 12 years ago, so that would be close to $100M in today's dollars. Hopefully, the Apple PTB's looked at SAMEsung's marketing budget and decided to spend some of that cash hoard on ads. And BTW, I thought the unicorn ad was quirky and mildly amusing, but not effective as to why one should buy a SAMEsung. Because some deluded, dorky video game startup geeks use the phone, my 14-yr-old niece should buy the phone? And halfway through the ad, I was asking, "WTF are they selling here?" And comparing it against a Blackberry? Might was well stick a RAZR in the ad and make fun of it too. JD, I think this was Samsung's opening salvo to pick up the Blackberry users who will....finally.....abandon ship when Blackberry 10 disappoints. BB was always about physical keyboard and security. Both strengths (if you call a physical keyboard a strength..some love them) are now deeply eroded. Samsung wants those BB diehards... BB10 is very nice, but I don't really see it much better than WebOS was. Technically better doesn't always translate into marketplace success. Look at Windows - it sucked compared to Amiga, Atari, and even Apple at the time, but it succeeded in the market. I am afraid RIM has a large hurdle to overcome and it remains to be seen whether or not they will achieve success with BB10. I can see muted success if they come out with lots of different phone models and some very nice software features, but the days of them owning the smartphone market are long since passed. I can see them holding <10% of the market going forward, maybe even just 5%. But even that might be enough to sustain a business. Maybe they should license it out and let everyone make phones with the BB10 software installed, like Google does with android. But then again who's going to buy it when Android is free?
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Post by sponge on Jan 21, 2013 12:46:32 GMT -8
looks like 504 close in Frankfurt Wednesday Close at $504 and 2% pop AH puts AAPL at $514 just in time for my $505/$510 Call Spreads I think the Frankfurt move is a byproduct of Friday pin. Tomorrow with Verizon and Google reporting our stock could move very wildly. Some TA folks say to get ready for the 485 dump early on. I don't see that but instead a 2-3% move up. If we only get to 515 by Friday it will be because Apple reports under 14. The odds of that are slim. I expecting at least 555 or higher by Friday.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 21, 2013 12:48:13 GMT -8
I may be in a minority on this board but i absolutely love the size of the screen and the size of the iPhone 5. As a female, it makes the previous iPhones feel like a brick. I can do everything with one hand now (don't go there - be grown ups) and can't help but wonder what the gender split is with the buyers of all iPhones. Just wondering. Phoebes, it is not a matter of being in the minority or majority. Apple responded with the mini to combat the 7" tablet. Quite successfully I might add. I/we love the mini and this is coming from someone who was against Apple even building the device. If Apple decides to build a larger screen, which I think you guys are blowing way out of proportion since they already made a larger screen from the 4 to 5., why are people against it? Is it because we own 5's and don't want the next one to diminish our phone? The GSIII and Note are selling well, why concede that market. It is actually the same argument that was put out for the mini. The mini squeezed a 7.9" screen into a tablet that is smaller than the competition. I see no reason why Apple can't do the opposite in the phone. You need to remember the math involved. Screens are measured diagonally. Apple can easily add a little height on the existing phone and add a little width and be over 4.5 " with little effort and minimal form factor change. Just think mini. I feel completely inadequate. I want a bigger screen just like I wanted my corvettes to make up for my shortcomings. After all, I have struggled through life not being able to get a date and need big things to compensate. (eyes roll in text since madam dictator won't fix the smiley)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 12:53:12 GMT -8
I don't think Apple was combatting the 7" iPad at all. If you look at iPod, I think Apple may actually have been planning the iPad mini all along (just without Steve's blessing right away, if you believe the stories ). However, the iPad mini would not be what it was without the A5 - a requirement for Siri and other hardware/software. IF iPhone will have a new screen size...you have to make the business case and use case - look, don't make ME go and run the numbers with the pixels and dimensions, YOU'RE the guys who want it. Oh, a final thing. You have to be happy with ONE additional screen size. If you're not - well, you're looking at the wrong tech company. Because the second Apple splits atoms between 4.5" screens and 4.8" screens and 5.5" screens (and 7.0" screens and 7.7" screens and 8.9" screens...) the way Samsung does, I'll be selling, because Apple's losing its way, or Jony Ive is out the door. Probably both.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 21, 2013 12:54:57 GMT -8
If we only get to 515 by Friday it will be because Apple reports under 14. The odds of that are slim. I expecting at least 555 or higher by Friday. If we get mid 14's I am expecting that Wednesday afternoon. Since I am in the low 14 camp, I am still nervous. I just feel that WS priced in an earnings contraction. Why wouldn't they with that awful guidance? Any decent expansion and we should be in great shape for a few months.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jan 21, 2013 12:59:56 GMT -8
I think this article is fundamentally flawed. Applying these statistical methods to stock price or earnings data assumed that the data is independent. In other words, knowing one data point does not give us any information about the next data point. I would argue that the data is highly dependent. The presence of competition, the effect of options, the larger economy, all these factors act on the variable we are trying to predict. Indeed, TA is based on the belief that there are feedback loops (i.e. momentum) and that that the momentum is predictable based on crowd psychology. If this is true, none of these variable, and especially stock price can be viewed as a random independent variable. This article is at best worthless, and at worst misleading. A postdoc should know better
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 13:01:01 GMT -8
MB, at some point repeating oneself doesn't need to be done. We get that you hate Oppenheimer and his guidance.
REVS guidance was quite good, considering. I strongly suspect EPS guidance would've been better by a dime or so if not for the congestion of new products.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 21, 2013 13:05:50 GMT -8
Just got my confirmation for my stay in Vegas at the end of March. Last year (when I had money) I bought a weekend stay at the Palazzo through AMEX. It was one of those to good to pass up offers. They did not tell me I was going to have to jump through a hundred hoops to actually get it. Geeeeeez I love American Express. The cost of the card is nothing when compared to the benefits you receive. (special purchase deals not available to the general public. Hotels, shows, concerts, companion tickets, free luggage on flights, etc......) any particular AMEX or all cards? I'm actually in the market for a new card with the wife and was browsing all the deals for best rewards % etc. Right now I'm looking at the Blue Cash Preferred.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 21, 2013 13:06:47 GMT -8
I don't think Apple was combatting the 7" iPad at all. Disagree 1000000000000000% There were calls for the mini 2 years ago inside Apple. Apple management felt like they had the market cornered. (with good reason) This was Apple holding market share until they can get the next version of the mini out. Apple only builds what they can make a profit on. If they built the mini to the ipad 4 specs the margins would be much smaller. I think the mini is going to be a decent margin device this quarter. Mav, the resolution is so high a large screen would not even be noticeable. My projector shoots a 1920x1080 image on to a 110" screen. It looks better than our 50" SONY. There I go again with the big stuff, completely inadequate.
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Post by mstrmac on Jan 21, 2013 13:16:54 GMT -8
Nick Nansen's case for stock split and BOD reaction to manipulation. Time For Apple TO Show The LovePosted on January 21, 2013 LINK: nanseninvestments.com/If Apple splits the per share price under 100, how will this effect the coming mini options contracts which start this spring? exchanges.nyx.com/us-trading-news/launch-mini-options-contractsProbably no split because the plans are in the cards. How will the mini options effect the cause and effect of price action? And how does this bode for the long term regular Apple common shareholders. Seems to me they have to now time the options movement in order to activate their retirement plans more profitably.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 21, 2013 13:25:54 GMT -8
any particular AMEX or all cards? I'm actually in the market for a new card with the wife and was browsing all the deals for best rewards % etc. Right now I'm looking at the Blue Cash Preferred. It really depends on what you like to do. Tammy and I usually go on 4 trips a year so I /we get cards that encourage travel. Delta is based out of Atlanta and is our preferred airline. Because of this I got the AMEX Platinum Delta card. They give you sign up points, wave the first year fee, give you a free companion airfare ticket (US travel), first checked bag free for up to 8 people in your group. (That adds up in a hurry) You also get to buy travel packages from time to time. Last year I bought the Palazzo strip view Sienna package which covers room, taxes, and fee's. Worked out to over a 50% savings. I normally would not book that kind of room, but the price was to good to pass up. The big kicker is the companion ticket. Since we get two, Tammy has the card also, we get to fly 2 for 1 twice a year with AMEX. (I have the CITI Premier card also that gives a companion ticket also.) When you add in the checked bags, $50 each way and the free ticket, it is a deal. The key is if you are going to use it the way it is intended. If you just want a reward card there are better cards out there with lower fees.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 21, 2013 13:34:17 GMT -8
Does anyone know if data exists that would track open interest of past options. For example, if I wanted to find out the Open interest of the Jan '13 500 CALL OI, on the first of each month for 12 months prior to that option's expiration?
I know TD has something called ThinkBack, but I've never tried it so I don't know if it would have that data.
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