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Post by mbeauch on Jan 20, 2013 20:14:27 GMT -8
"Wing clipped"? Kiwi= flightless New Zealand bird...( ever see the shoe polish can? - no wings). Red, Tammy got a mini yesterday, replaced her 1. She is so happy. BTW, that is a big difference in technology from the 1 to a mini. I like the mini. It really is not that much smaller screen wise. Apple did a great job of maximizing the screen to the case. I admit I was a doubter, now I am sold. I do like the idea of a larger screen iphone and I do believe one is coming. (when I have no idea)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2013 20:16:40 GMT -8
If apple builds a retina 4.8 inch phablet, it will be a big winner.....
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 20, 2013 20:18:38 GMT -8
If apple builds a retina 4.8 inch phablet, it will be a big winner..... Red, I am doing this for you. ;D Lovey seems to be MIA soooooooo Directtv genie.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2013 20:21:37 GMT -8
If apple builds a retina 4.8 inch phablet, it will be a big winner..... Red, I am doing this for you. ;D Lovey seems to be MIA soooooooo Directtv genie. How does THAT look on the mini?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 20:24:15 GMT -8
If apple builds a retina 4.8 inch phablet, it will be a big winner..... Well yes, Apple having "follow-on" products is right out of their playbook. But you have to answer some serious questions first, like: - What screen resolution are we talking here? There's iPhone pixels (which the iPad mini uses) and iPad 2 pixels and iPad retina pixels. Will Apple apply a new pixel class with lower-quality (read: bigger) pixels to a flagship iPhone? - What about the iPhone 5 and 4S? (Developer headaches!) - What about the end of one-handed operation? - What about half the market? (Women) See: Usability. I mean, that's one reason why Apple went _smaller_ with iPad. - Who is Apple trying to keep just with a bigger screen? - Why would Apple torpedo iPad mini and iPad this early in the game? - Will Apple meaningfully grow sales by sprouting a new screen size?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 20, 2013 20:39:21 GMT -8
The iphone 5 seems small in my hand. Bring on bigger.
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Post by rosie on Jan 20, 2013 20:43:29 GMT -8
don't get up at dawn for this "up 5%"...wait til Tuesday :-) and here's hoping!
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 20, 2013 20:46:58 GMT -8
How does THAT look on the mini? Had to buy the app again on Tammy's account. The forum presents well on the mini also.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 20, 2013 20:55:53 GMT -8
Settle down boys, Genie is taken by some dude named Derek Jeter. Big Red, love the D Trump comment. Just wondering if there's a bit of hair envy there? (Miss your old avatar!). What happens with earnings isn't so much about TA, BUT about a severely needed change in sentiment. That's the key IMO. The race to the biggest phone seems like a losing proposition. Agree with Mav on most of his points. I like the stepping stones we have of phone, mini, iPad, laptop, iMac. How big can these other phones get? Have you ever looked in a woman's purse? Even the big ones are filled to the brim. they look like a 75 yr. old guys garage :-) where the hell they gonna put a bigger phone? Probably way off base but it doesn't make sense to me. Young chicks stick them in their back pockets all the time (bring a toilet proof phone to market ASAP!).
Gonna need to innovate some other ways. Wonder how far Apple is from using Haptic technology? Still think they can win on IP/innovation in areas that will be increasingly harder to copy. Size, screen res, look and feel, camera res.... Getting close to being like TVs.
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Post by hellojapan on Jan 20, 2013 21:08:59 GMT -8
There is certainly room for a 5 inch iPhone. That is what I have wanted for years. In Horace's latest podcast he spends a few minutes talking about the ways that he expects Apple to expand its iPhone portfolio and that there is room for them to expand it at the high end (the larger iPhone) and the low end.
A lot of people said that Apple would not make an iPad mini for similar reasons that they are saying they will not make a 5 inch iPhone and I think (and hope) that they will turn out to be just as wrong.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 20, 2013 21:26:49 GMT -8
There is certainly room for a 5 inch iPhone. That is what I have wanted for years. In Horace's latest podcast he spends a few minutes talking about the ways that he expects Apple to expand its iPhone portfolio and that there is room for them to expand it at the high end (the larger iPhone) and the low end. A lot of people said that Apple would not make an iPad mini for similar reasons that they are saying they will not make a 5 inch iPhone and I think (and hope) that they will turn out to be just as wrong. How big a screen do they need to go to not run into scaling issues?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 21:29:38 GMT -8
For the record, I've been on the "mini" train ever since iPod mini. I was on board the iPad mini express no later than when it was actually "visualized" by rumors and well-connected sources (screen size, form factor, pixel maths). It's my next iPad, someday.
A bigger iPhone isn't out of the question, but it's the opposite argument as mini-ing things - you're maxing out an iPhone instead.
I get that there's a market for phablet/whatevers. In recent travels I saw the phenomenon and I think the rationale is quite simple - there's a market for people who want to dispense with the phone + tablet combo and just get the one device. Convergence within convergence. (I still saw tons of iPhones though.)
Is that a market Apple wants? Is it big enough, or can it be incrementally grown? That's the key to everything, because once Apple puts its mind to it, they will find a way.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 21:32:15 GMT -8
chas, I'm too brain-fried from technicals, earnings analysis and trade planning to run the maths on pixels for a bigger phone. Hopefully someone else will pick up the banner...btw, it's probably best to assume a bigger iPhone will have the same size pixels as Retina iPhones, so I'd think the goal is to estimate the resolution kept to the same aspect ratio/PPI.
Btw, it's more than a day away but there may be a pro-AAPL skew in the Nasdaq futures. It's not like INTC is helping.
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Post by yellowhandman on Jan 20, 2013 21:53:29 GMT -8
Most likely a translation issue. Apple would never deviate from its labeling. JMO of course. I tried looking at the original article in Chinese. The name of the phone is actually spelt out in English, so any mistranslation must stem from the reporter's source, rather than from a mistranslation of the article itself.
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Post by jeffi on Jan 20, 2013 21:56:22 GMT -8
I find it amazing how many on this board think options expiration day results in a "manipulated" closing price. It is really just math. Closing out options drives the price in the opposite direction. A bullish option purchase drives the common price up, while closing the position drives it down. If the option holder exercises instead of closing the position than there is no pinning effect. I understand that the price movement appears manipulated as the pinning frequently causes the buyers of the options to perform sub optimally. But... Appearances can be deceiving. Those that don't understand this and make money in the options market should consider themselves very fortunate (and a novice). FUD on the other hand can and is used to manipulate the market. Any genius trader or investor who poo-poo's pain theory, feel free to post your YoY results that beat Travis Lewis' 107% yearly performance. I'm not sure if we disagree. I very much believe in pain theory. I just do not believe its evil manipulation that causes the pain. I believe much of the price action is the result of the mechanics of closing out open contracts. I outlined what I considered to be the dynamics in another post today. I'm sure it's incomplete. I presume my novice comment was innappropriate. Poor choice of words. I do believe those that trade options profitably and do not understand the dynamics at option expiration are fortunate as they are much more likely to make a mistake. Regarding Travis's returns... I must say that I'm embarrassed by my own recent trading losses in AAPL. That being said I have compounded my capital about 90% per year for about 5 straight years (approximately 30x return).
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Post by Nevyn on Jan 20, 2013 22:03:09 GMT -8
Travis agrees with you. According to him, the WSJ story was manipulation to knock it down from 516is to 500ish. The close at 500 was market mechanics of options expiry. See following video: aaplpain.com/?p=4497
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Post by Nevyn on Jan 20, 2013 22:05:52 GMT -8
Here is my thought. The market makers on apple's options (those that sold calls to retail investors like me) probably acquired common shares as a hedge for the calls they sold. That can help explain the parabolic run we experienced - smart money was selling calls and buying shares at the same time. Now that apple's jan exp has occurred - we hopefully have them on our side as the shares they bought can run up for a bit. Once apple gets to a certain level - market makers will rinse and repeat. Lets see what tues brings. Sent from my iPad using ProBoards app This is a popular theory and has gotten widespread coverage in Apple blogosphere (daring fireball, loop insight etc) This is the article many are linking to : seekingalpha.com/article/1002601-buy-apple-on-january-18
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Post by nagrani on Jan 20, 2013 22:07:00 GMT -8
Travis is a confusing smart guy.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2013 22:08:24 GMT -8
Gregg, any interest or insights to add? I've been meaning to post one of the spreadsheets I started last summer (need to update first) for tracking the daily OI on particular popular strikes (like JAN'13 500, ha!). There are two kinds of analysis, fundamental and technical. Eventually fundamentals prevail over everything technical because its long term vs short term. Tuesday is a 'fundamentals' inflection point of major significance. AAPL has been trading as it has because Apple missed its fundamentals (earnings reports) 7 of its last 12 quarters including the last two consecutively. On top of that, during the last 4 months we have had portfolio rebalancing, institutional sell off prior to July and October earnings reports, an election that presaged a mythical 'fiscal cliff', and numerous bogus reports of this and that that caused shell-shocked investors to respond irrationally. It is going to take a 'fundamentals' issue to begin the restoration of investor confidence in AAPL. I'm talking about a strong earnings report and guidance of two or more consecutive quarters. Until then we can expect any kind of craziness to come out of the blogosphere, and for that craziness to move AAPL in ways we don't like. I'm anticipating, and I believe the market is anticipating Apple to exceed expectations by a great deal. With the sentiment the way its been since September 21, exceeding expectations (whatever that is) is going to make AAPL pop 3+% on Wednesday. I base this on last weeks drop in the P/C Ratio, down from .69:1 to .63:1 (lowest I've seen in over 2 years) at the same time OI has increased to very near record levels, and the extraordinary bias of Calls over Puts extending to July with max pain in the area of $550.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 22:11:51 GMT -8
3%?
I expect sharp moves of >5% in either direction. I mean look at INTC.
Just my opinion of course. When was AAPL's last 3% (peak/intraday high) move post-earnings?
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Post by jeffi on Jan 20, 2013 22:57:26 GMT -8
Gotta love John Gruber...
Jackass of the Week: Eric Mack
Eric Mack, CNet:
"Just to be clear on what I’m saying, my best educated guesses are that we will see a new iPhone this summer, and it will be an iPhone 5S with mostly iterative updates, a choice of colors, and perhaps the lower-cost model of the latest rumors. But the real question is: then what?
My gut tells me the iPhone as we know it will be done at that point. I have a hunch there will never be an iPhone 6, because Apple will be forced to move into a significantly different form factor to keep people interested and compete with the movement toward bigger phablet-like thingies and emerging wearable electronics (lots of us have fat thumbs, after all). Or, there will be an iPhone 6 and it will disappoint."
For context, the iPhone 4S was the best-selling smartphone in history, the iPhone 5 appears set to sell even better than the 4S did, and Apple currently reaps upwards of 70–75 percent of all profit in the handset industry. So Mack thinks they’ll make one more, it’ll disappoint, and that’ll be that and the iPhone will move into the Home for Retired Apple Product Lines, down the hall from the Newton. OK.
★ Sunday, 20 January 2013
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Post by appledoc on Jan 21, 2013 3:32:23 GMT -8
Gotta love John Gruber... Jackass of the Week: Eric Mack Eric Mack, CNet: "Just to be clear on what I’m saying, my best educated guesses are that we will see a new iPhone this summer, and it will be an iPhone 5S with mostly iterative updates, a choice of colors, and perhaps the lower-cost model of the latest rumors. But the real question is: then what? My gut tells me the iPhone as we know it will be done at that point. I have a hunch there will never be an iPhone 6, because Apple will be forced to move into a significantly different form factor to keep people interested and compete with the movement toward bigger phablet-like thingies and emerging wearable electronics (lots of us have fat thumbs, after all). Or, there will be an iPhone 6 and it will disappoint." For context, the iPhone 4S was the best-selling smartphone in history, the iPhone 5 appears set to sell even better than the 4S did, and Apple currently reaps upwards of 70–75 percent of all profit in the handset industry. So Mack thinks they’ll make one more, it’ll disappoint, and that’ll be that and the iPhone will move into the Home for Retired Apple Product Lines, down the hall from the Newton. OK. ★ Sunday, 20 January 2013 This is what happens when sentiment is bad. A larger iPhone is a gimmick. It adds next to nothing. But if idiots want to buy it, maybe Apple should sell it to them.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 21, 2013 4:11:03 GMT -8
Are we sticking with this thread for the long US holiday weekend? Or do we need to open a new thread? I'll assume we come here to listen to the prophets, no?
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 21, 2013 4:28:35 GMT -8
Just fyi - in Europe with a 15 minute delay: 377.69 € = 503.12 U.S.D
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Post by appledoc on Jan 21, 2013 4:43:48 GMT -8
Am I the only one who things apple Will go up 4-5pct tomorrow? I have a new theory brewing. Lets see if it plays out. Respectfully we won't do shit tomorrow (market closed) but like your idea for Tuesday. Certainly a piece of arguably big portion of resistance has been eliminated (OE). If we go up that much before earnings, I'm escaping a lot of my positions.
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Post by hellojapan on Jan 21, 2013 4:51:08 GMT -8
Gotta love John Gruber... Jackass of the Week: Eric Mack Eric Mack, CNet: "Just to be clear on what IÂ’m saying, my best educated guesses are that we will see a new iPhone this summer, and it will be an iPhone 5S with mostly iterative updates, a choice of colors, and perhaps the lower-cost model of the latest rumors. But the real question is: then what? My gut tells me the iPhone as we know it will be done at that point. I have a hunch there will never be an iPhone 6, because Apple will be forced to move into a significantly different form factor to keep people interested and compete with the movement toward bigger phablet-like thingies and emerging wearable electronics (lots of us have fat thumbs, after all). Or, there will be an iPhone 6 and it will disappoint." For context, the iPhone 4S was the best-selling smartphone in history, the iPhone 5 appears set to sell even better than the 4S did, and Apple currently reaps upwards of 70–75 percent of all profit in the handset industry. So Mack thinks theyÂ’ll make one more, itÂ’ll disappoint, and thatÂ’ll be that and the iPhone will move into the Home for Retired Apple Product Lines, down the hall from the Newton. OK. ★ Sunday, 20 January 2013 This is what happens when sentiment is bad. A larger iPhone is a gimmick. It adds next to nothing. But if idiots want to buy it, maybe Apple should sell it to them. "An iPad mini is a gimmick. It adds next to nothing. But if idiots want to buy it, maybe Apple should sell it to them." "An iPad is just a gimmick, it is only a giant iPhone. But if idiots want to buy it, maybe Apple should sell it to them." Calling people (including me) idiots for wanting a larger iPhone is unnecessary. A larger iPhone would be a great device, plain and simple. That is what Apple makes. An iPad mini does not exist today because Apple is blindly following its competition, it exists because it is a great device that delights my girlfriend every day. We will have a larger iPhone for the same reason.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 21, 2013 5:55:39 GMT -8
Had to use non-adjusted closes from historical data for simplicities sake. Percentages should all be very similar regardless. Blue numbers are the price/change if you took it out to Friday on weekly options. 0 is the closing on day of earnings. Please check the numbers if trading off of this.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 21, 2013 6:23:36 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Jan 21, 2013 6:31:13 GMT -8
To the mods:
On the old AFB, the discussions of various aspects of Apple were in separate threads. On this site, it is always one long stream.
I really enjoy this site and the posters as much as any site I have used.
I would much prefer to see the separate threads, for many reasons.
Even on this one weekend thread, there is an extended discussion of iPhone screen sizes, and also a general discussion of stock manipulation. Should not these be in separate threads?
Also the top-level categories and not good, e.g. iStull, AAPL News (how is that different from Intraday updates?), Apple fundamentals vs AAPL technicals, etc. Confusing. The old organization was better in my opinion.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 21, 2013 6:51:23 GMT -8
This is what happens when sentiment is bad. A larger iPhone is a gimmick. It adds next to nothing. But if idiots want to buy it, maybe Apple should sell it to them. I disagree an iPhone with a larger screen is a gimmick. The #1 reason why I did not purchase an iPhone 5 was the screen size. I went with a Galaxy Note 2 (and I love the large screen). Many of us who are getting older - eyes not like they were even 5 years ago, who has large fingers, or uses the phone more as a media consumption device than an actual phone (not to mention wants an easier typing experience with a larger on screen keyboard) wants a larger screen/phone. Yes, there are some downsides. They are bigger, don't fit as nicely in your pocket, might be a little bit heavier, and you may need to use two hands sometimes to reach all areas of the screen. But trust me, there are many people who want the larger screens. There are also those who don't. Younger teenagers and women may not want the larger screen. The phone has to fit in purses, after all. By offering a larger screen phone Apple just addresses an additional segment of the market. I'm 100% in favour of this and I wish they would have done it sooner - I'd probably own that iPhone right now instead of a Samsung device.
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