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Post by tuffett on Feb 23, 2013 12:39:58 GMT -8
Some humour to start the weekend off: What a fresh, original ad for an innovative company. Jony Ive looks and sounds different these days This is a joke, right? Sadly, that is a real google ad for their latest creation.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 12:52:11 GMT -8
Or NTT Docomo and/or China Mobile adds iPhones. Agreed. This year EPS will PROBABLY not rise with what has worked in the past (feature and incremental upgrades to the iPhone). It will probably take one or more of the following: Large increase in customer base through major carrier deal(s) and/or an off contract phone in the $200 range (existing or new device). New disruptive device or major change and expansion of existing devices. Major change in cash utilization (multiple options but the benefit of just saving it is is clearly gone). All of the above have inherent challenges (e.g. margins) but IMHO the fact evidence is clear that growth is slowing: we can't just stick our head in the sand and think that staying the course of the past is somehow going to magically fix the outcome of the future. Apple is a different company in many ways than it was even in the recent past, the expectations of the addressable consumer in regards to handsets is different than it was in the past and to cope with this the company has to change. Change is hard, it has risks but complacency in day-to-day company operations is temptingly comfortable; change presents opportunity. One thing for sure though: in technology (and retail) there are many company histories of failure from those that refused to recognize it. Myopia prevails. Everyone calling for this or that, either are ignorant of, or fail to see the significance of (same thing really), Europe's overall economic weakness and how that has impacted Apple's results. My god, I sometimes wonder why Apple issues a 10Q. It doesn't seem that people read them, and if they did, they certainly don't do comparative analysis against prior periods. Europe's economic weakness resulted in lower top line revenue at Apple, and a higher effective tax consequence. Had Europe performed as before, Apple's reported EPS would have been about 60¢ higher, easily besting WS consensus. Would we be having the same discussions about Apple needing to do this or that, if Apple had reported $14.41 vs $13.81? I think not. But then there will always be those that think they know more than the management team leading the world's most valuable company. Hubris exists every where.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 23, 2013 13:30:18 GMT -8
The fact of the matter is that all smartphone vendors have had to deal with the same economic climate. Apple profit was flat (slightly up if you account for the extra week last year) while Samsung's almost doubled. That is the bottom line and it is a legitimate reason for shareholders to show concern over. To add to that, the quarter we are currently in is almost certain to show negative year over year profit growth. That just doesn't fly for a "growth" company. I'm aware of all the issues and the fact that revenue will be higher, but the bottom line is there will likely be no profit growth this quarter and maybe this year. Growth going forward will be much harder to come by than in the last few years. As a result, while Apple could get away with ignoring shareholders in the past, they cannot continue to do so as the company is maturing and growth will taper off.
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Post by fas550 on Feb 23, 2013 13:38:11 GMT -8
Agreed. This year EPS will PROBABLY not rise with what has worked in the past (feature and incremental upgrades to the iPhone). It will probably take one or more of the following: Large increase in customer base through major carrier deal(s) and/or an off contract phone in the $200 range (existing or new device). New disruptive device or major change and expansion of existing devices. Major change in cash utilization (multiple options but the benefit of just saving it is is clearly gone). All of the above have inherent challenges (e.g. margins) but IMHO the fact evidence is clear that growth is slowing: we can't just stick our head in the sand and think that staying the course of the past is somehow going to magically fix the outcome of the future. Apple is a different company in many ways than it was even in the recent past, the expectations of the addressable consumer in regards to handsets is different than it was in the past and to cope with this the company has to change. Change is hard, it has risks but complacency in day-to-day company operations is temptingly comfortable; change presents opportunity. One thing for sure though: in technology (and retail) there are many company histories of failure from those that refused to recognize it. Myopia prevails. Everyone calling for this or that, either are ignorant of, or fail to see the significance of (same thing really), Europe's overall economic weakness and how that has impacted Apple's results. My god, I sometimes wonder why Apple issues a 10Q. It doesn't seem that people read them, and if they did, they certainly don't do comparative analysis against prior periods. Europe's economic weakness resulted in lower top line revenue at Apple, and a higher effective tax consequence. Had Europe performed as before, Apple's reported EPS would have been about 60¢ higher, easily besting WS consensus. Would we be having the same discussions about Apple needing to do this or that, if Apple had reported $14.41 vs $13.81? I think not. But then there will always be those that think they know more than the management team leading the world's most valuable company. Hubris exists every where. Nice example of changing the argument :-) I will accept you challenge and bring it back to the only issue that matters: growth. I do fact read the 10Q, I'm well aware of the small amount they missed average estimates by and how that by a just a few more things going right they would have met estimates. That's history; It became all about the future the moment they gave the numbers. It's not what they missed as it was not going to be about the current numbers unless they blew the doors off, it was and IS primarily about guidance. A phrase I have often heard by sales VPs is, "We are not here to be history majors". The guidance, in POs own words, the more accurate guidance does not show any or significant level of growth.
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Post by vikesfaniv on Feb 23, 2013 13:47:59 GMT -8
Anyone take the time to read through Einhorn's proposal? I'm curious on what impact it may have on Option/LEAP holders if Apple ever went through with something like this. His description of it shows that it would actually cause the stock price to decline in proportion to how many iPrefs were issued (assuming a constant PE ratio). The preferred stock would not be like a "special dividend" where option prices are reduced accordingly. It would simply depress the common stock because it would reduce EPS by the amount paid out to the preferred stock. Long story short, my take away unless I'm understanding it wrong (which is very likely), it would be great for shareholders and perhaps very painful for option holders.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 23, 2013 14:14:24 GMT -8
Would we be having the same discussions about Apple needing to do this or that, if Apple had reported $14.41 vs $13.81? I think not. Except you're wrong. TC and PO still would have sounded like shit during the CC, Q2 guidance still would have been shit, and WS would still treat the cash pile as a heaping pile of shit since the company has failed to utilize it in a manner that makes WS happy.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 14:27:22 GMT -8
I just wish the cash/shareholder issues would just get sorted once and for all and the market can get back to focusing on fundamentals. Cash on hand is a fundamental issue. WS isn't happy with how it's being used. Other fundamentals aren't pretty either. There's a strong possibility of negative EPS growth in 2013 unless something saves us in Q3 and Q4. Either a summer iPhone release or a new device that is a winner. This quarter will take a miracle to beat last years EPS, but I'm not to worried about Q3 & Q4 given the margins last year for those quarters was not as mind blowing as Q2. If the strong revenue growth achieved in Q1, and guided for in Q2, continues through Q3 & Q4, then combined with conservative Gross margin % growth we should get strong, above $10 per share EPS for Q3 & Q4. And to add to that, don't forget that the 5S, even if released in the same week as last year, will ship in far greater volume in Q4 than compared to last year, as the product ramp on an unchanged form factor will be much much faster. That should push Q4 up and over $11 per share. And imagine if the release is pushed up a few weeks... All of the above is highly likely. And now imagine that we get an additional iPhone model released alongside the iPhone 5S.. And also imagine any amount of increased share buyback occurring. Every 1% of shares bought back and cancelled increases 2013 EPS by approximately 50c per share.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 14:54:42 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 15:08:58 GMT -8
Apple CFO visits analysts and investors By GARETT SLOANE Last Updated: 2:56 PM, February 23, 2013
Apple is making the Wall Street rounds — and it comes bearing gifts.
Apple’s chief financial officer, Peter Oppenheimer, was in New York this week chatting up analysts and investors as the company battles hedge-fund manager David Einhorn’s efforts to get his hands on Apple’s $137 billion cash hoard.
The Apple moneyman was spotted at a conference with investors in Philippe Laffont’s Coatue Management, according to hedge fund publication Absolute Return.
Apple has fallen out of favor among some top hedge funds, which dumped shares last quarter and sent the stock sliding from its all-time highs. Apple’s stock is down by nearly one third since September.
Even Coatue, a vocal member of the Apple fan club, sold half its holdings. Despite the diminished position, Oppenheimer delivered iPad Minis to the almost 300 in attendance, according to the report.
The charm offensive didn’t stop there.
Yesterday, Morgan Stanley told clients that Oppenheimer briefed its analysts on the company’s plans and tried to shift the focus from Apple’s huge cash pile to the company’s product pipeline.
“Innovation remains top priority,†Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients. “Cash return a plus.â€
It is a sentiment most of Wall Street agrees with if Apple is going to reverse its stock slide. Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes said this week that Apple needs to launch a cheaper iPhone to counter Samsung, especially in emerging markets.
Apple execs have been more visible in recent weeks as concerns mount over the cash just sitting on its books.
CEO Tim Cook sought to reassure investors at a Goldman Sachs conference just two weeks ago, saying the company is considering ways to return money to shareholders.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 23, 2013 15:27:06 GMT -8
Cash on hand is a fundamental issue. WS isn't happy with how it's being used. Other fundamentals aren't pretty either. There's a strong possibility of negative EPS growth in 2013 unless something saves us in Q3 and Q4. Either a summer iPhone release or a new device that is a winner. This quarter will take a miracle to beat last years EPS, but I'm not to worried about Q3 & Q4 given the margins last year for those quarters was not as mind blowing as Q2. If the strong revenue growth achieved in Q1, and guided for in Q2, continues through Q3 & Q4, then combined with conservative Gross margin % growth we should get strong, above $10 per share EPS for Q3 & Q4. And to add to that, don't forget that the 5S, even if released in the same week as last year, will ship in far greater volume in Q4 than compared to last year, as the product ramp on an unchanged form factor will be much much faster. That should push Q4 up and over $11 per share. And imagine if the release is pushed up a few weeks... All of the above is highly likely. And now imagine that we get an additional iPhone model released alongside the iPhone 5S.. And also imagine any amount of increased share buyback occurring. Every 1% of shares bought back and cancelled increases 2013 EPS by approximately 50c per share. One could argue the EPS contraction ("negative growth" is contradiction) is already priced in, since we are ~$65 off since the last earnings call. The thing is, Apple didn't provide an EPS. The analyst estimate number I saw was $10.24 on WhisperNumber.com & Yahoo ($10.22 on Market Watch, $10.99 on EarningsWhispers.com). So, isn't that the number(s) to beat, rather than last year's $12.30?
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Post by Mav on Feb 23, 2013 15:47:49 GMT -8
The thing is, Apple didn't provide an EPS. The analyst estimate number I saw was $10.24 on WhisperNumber.com & Yahoo ($10.22 on Market Watch, $10.99 on EarningsWhispers.com). So, isn't that the number(s) to beat, rather than last year's $12.30? Optics issues aside, Apple didn't give out an EPS only because Apple is making everyone solve for share count. All of the other variables were given. So assuming share count doesn't move much from last quarter, we're looking at a "hidden" EPS guidance range of $9.25-$10.25 IIRC.
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 23, 2013 16:31:46 GMT -8
The thing is, Apple didn't provide an EPS. The analyst estimate number I saw was $10.24 on WhisperNumber.com & Yahoo ($10.22 on Market Watch, $10.99 on EarningsWhispers.com). So, isn't that the number(s) to beat, rather than last year's $12.30? Optics issues aside, Apple didn't give out an EPS only because Apple is making everyone solve for share count. All of the other variables were given. So assuming share count doesn't move much from last quarter, we're looking at a "hidden" EPS guidance range of $9.25-$10.25 IIRC. I know this is a working theory, but to describe it declaratively as the reason for the Apple POB's actions is bit of a stretch, IMO. My problem with it is it assumes that Apple doesn't know how many shares it will buy back in the very next quarter, which I find hard to believe. And is the point of doing this little math exercise? WS doesn't like unexpected things and sudden moves. This obviously didn't go over well (nor was it presented well).
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Post by fas550 on Feb 23, 2013 16:35:17 GMT -8
Apple CFO visits analysts and investors By GARETT SLOANE Last Updated: 2:56 PM, February 23, 2013 Apple is making the Wall Street rounds — and it comes bearing gifts. Sincerely glad to hear PO has left Camp Infinite Loop and talking to analysts.
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Post by fas550 on Feb 23, 2013 17:06:52 GMT -8
One could argue the EPS contraction ("negative growth" is contradiction) is already priced in, since we are ~$65 off since the last earnings call. The thing is, Apple didn't provide an EPS. The analyst estimate number I saw was $10.24 on WhisperNumber.com & Yahoo ($10.22 on Market Watch, $10.99 on EarningsWhispers.com). So, isn't that the number(s) to beat, rather than last year's $12.30? Respectfully one could also argue the cash is not part of the equation anymore (at least at this point in time), fundamentals haven't been part of the stock price conversation in the past 5 mos and have become less and less of over time in general. I mean I hear and have heard multiple times how Apple is cheap, great value, cheapest growth stock when compared to... but that does not seem to matter squat. As irrational is it is, (and how many times have we heard irrational used since 600) another gradual 100 point drop would caused raised eyebrows perhaps but there is no evidence it would cause a buying frenzy. Basically it would be an "oh well how that mighty have fallen" conversation and yes "its cheap." IMHO nothing is priced in, instead everyone is waiting for the next news good or bad to decide direction.
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Post by rickag on Feb 23, 2013 18:00:17 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Feb 23, 2013 18:09:53 GMT -8
Or NTT Docomo and/or China Mobile adds iPhones. Doesn't matter until they can keep up with demand. It took way too long after release of the 5 for supply to meet demand. And don't get me started on not being able to meet demand for the 4. They are in supply demand balance now. If NTT Docomo adds the iPhone in the near future that would add what ~ 3 - 5 million more sales. China Mobile has between 10 - 12 million iPhones on their network unsupported so add another 10+ million sales. And don't get me started on iPad and iPad mini sales. So yes adding only these 2 carriers would affect sales growth, not the 60 - 80 % Apple has seen in the past but still significant. Then add an increased effort in India.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 20:02:48 GMT -8
I would love to see this in an apple advertising campaign - 3 x more reliable than its biggest competitor is a hugely impressive statistic.
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Post by sponge on Feb 23, 2013 20:28:04 GMT -8
I would love to see this in an apple advertising campaign - 3 x more reliable than its biggest competitor is a hugely impressive statistic. Consumers are very smart and already know. How many 4S commercials did you see in the last three month? None. And yet Samsung spend $30 per Galaxy phone on marketing and the 4S kicked their butt. A phone that is out for almost a year longer the S3. TC said don't bet against us. He is not taking about two or three quarters but 2 or 3 years. We are doing fine.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 20:56:16 GMT -8
I would love to see this in an apple advertising campaign - 3 x more reliable than its biggest competitor is a hugely impressive statistic. Consumers are very smart and already know. How many 4S commercials did you see in the last three month? None. And yet Samsung spend $30 per Galaxy phone on marketing and the 4S kicked their butt. A phone that is out for almost a year longer the S3. TC said don't bet against us. He is not taking about two or three quarters but 2 or 3 years. We are doing fine. Don't get me wrong, I hate Samsung, but that survey/report means zilch. Samsung sells dozens of different models of smartphones, the fact that there flagship model is ranked third 9 months after release is very impressive, especially considering the range of choice Samsung buyers have with dozens of different sizes and prices to choose to suit their needs. And of course that report was for 4th quarter, and the 4S was the best iPhone available to a lot of consumers for much of the 4th quarter (remember the iPhone 5 only had its china launch in December) - I doubt the 4S remains in the top 3 for the current quarter.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 23, 2013 21:05:38 GMT -8
I would love to see this in an apple advertising campaign - 3 x more reliable than its biggest competitor is a hugely impressive statistic. Consumers are very smart and already know. How many 4S commercials did you see in the last three month? None. And yet Samsung spend $30 per Galaxy phone on marketing and the 4S kicked their butt. A phone that is out for almost a year longer the S3. TC said don't bet against us. He is not taking about two or three quarters but 2 or 3 years. We are doing fine. No. No they are not. There is an obvious correlation between Samsung's success and their ad spending. Just because the 4S outsold the S3 doesn't mean Apple can't further improve the success with a good ad campaign. Advertising works - always has and always will. With the S4 looming, I really hope Apple makes a strong presence in advertising, if they aren't coming out with a competing product around the same time.
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Post by sponge on Feb 23, 2013 21:43:22 GMT -8
Consumers are very smart and already know. How many 4S commercials did you see in the last three month? None. And yet Samsung spend $30 per Galaxy phone on marketing and the 4S kicked their butt. A phone that is out for almost a year longer the S3. TC said don't bet against us. He is not taking about two or three quarters but 2 or 3 years. We are doing fine. No. No they are not. There is an obvious correlation between Samsung's success and their ad spending. Just because the 4S outsold the S3 doesn't mean Apple can't further improve the success with a good ad campaign. Advertising works - always has and always will. With the S4 looming, I really hope Apple makes a strong presence in advertising, if they aren't coming out with a competing product around the same time. I think you missed my point. Consumers chose the 4S despite the ads. They knew the 4S is better then all the Galaxy phones. Apple's biggest problem is manufacturing not lack of advertising.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 23, 2013 21:49:31 GMT -8
Wrong. They are in supply-demand balance for all their products except iMac. Every additional sale they are able to make as a result of advertising or whatever else, they are able to produce at this point.
You're the one who's missing the point. Yes, a lot of people are buying the iPhone 4S. But a lot of people are also buying the S3 and other non-Apple. Those all represent potential sales to Apple, and vice versa for the competition.
Advertising has been proven to work for centuries. If Apple advertises more (and it is well within their budget) they will likely sell more. Given the stickiness of Apple products, it seems like a good idea to swing more sales Apple's way at a crucial time like this.
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Post by sponge on Feb 23, 2013 22:25:42 GMT -8
They are only marketing the heighest margin products and latest. IPhone 5 and Mini.
They are not in competition with Samsung, regardless what the media would have you think. Samsung is growing because of ads, but that only works if you don't mind spending $30 a phone for ever. They can't do that and it is catching up to them quickly. 4S no ads is beating then.
If they spend more money on Ads they may sell more. But I think they are on auto pilot when it comes to growth. They are now growing with market growth in smartphones and tablets. That is huge since they are on less carriers, in less countries and 2x more expensive in tablets and also have the highest margin in the business.
You start spending money on ads when you need a boost. They don't need that boost. As they ramp down production of older models 4S, iPad, and now slowly the 5, they will get ready for a new ad campaign as those products get new upgrades.
Keep in mind apple is in this for a long haul. It took them 15 years to hurt and surpass MS in revenue and just about the same to beat HP and Dell.
They will continue to grow the Eco system of iOS devices and mobile to the tune of 25% a year. That is huge when you have an installed base of 500 million. Wait 3 years when they really unleash their many software solutions in mobile payments, search, shopping, iTV, gaming, enterprise, education, home automation, autos, and many other areas.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 0:06:49 GMT -8
The fact of the matter is that all smartphone vendors have had to deal with the same economic climate. True. But nobody is calling for their CEO's head, or demanding they produce this or that. They already are, and they aren't making any money doing so. Bullshit. Where do you think a huge portion of that profit came from? Samsung benefits IMMENSELY from Apple product sales, and is lauded for its business practices, while Apple is criticized for not doing enough of this or that (which would benefit Samsung even more than the relationship already does). No, you are not, as evidenced by the idiocy you spew above. For FQ2/2012 Apple reported an industry all-time record high Gross Margin. No hardware manufacturer has come close to attaining such levels since before 2000, and you are pissed that Apple isn't going to do it again? Management guided FQ2/2013 Gross Margin % (likely to achieve) to the average of fiscal 2009, 2010 & 2011. Apple's gross margin for FQ2/2013 is going to be hugely greater than any of its competitors (~40%). Apple's management guided $2 to $4 billion more revenue for FQ2/2013, than Apple ACHIEVED for FQ2/2012. The issue clearly isn't revenue growth, its the extraordinary gross margin % that Apple achieved for FQ2/2012. Further, future growth will stagnate only if Apple were to rest on its laurels, as did Dell, HP, Palm, RIMM, Nokia, MSFT, HTC, Sony, Creative, Archos, iRiver, Gateway, eMachines, Singer, Olivetti, Northern Telecom, DEC, Compaq and countless others. There is no evidence of that happening. To the contrary, the world is widely speculating (expecting?) Apple is about to disrupt the TV industry (with nothing more than unsubstantiated rumors to support the thesis). You are a great example of being ignorant of Apple's 10Qs, or the issues surrounding Apple's performance. Thank you for that display. Please come again.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 0:17:09 GMT -8
This quarter will take a miracle to beat last years EPS, but I'm not to worried about Q3 & Q4 given the margins last year for those quarters was not as mind blowing as Q2. If the strong revenue growth achieved in Q1, and guided for in Q2, continues through Q3 & Q4, then combined with conservative Gross margin % growth we should get strong, above $10 per share EPS for Q3 & Q4. And to add to that, don't forget that the 5S, even if released in the same week as last year, will ship in far greater volume in Q4 than compared to last year, as the product ramp on an unchanged form factor will be much much faster. That should push Q4 up and over $11 per share. And imagine if the release is pushed up a few weeks... All of the above is highly likely. And now imagine that we get an additional iPhone model released alongside the iPhone 5S.. And also imagine any amount of increased share buyback occurring. Every 1% of shares bought back and cancelled increases 2013 EPS by approximately 50c per share. highlight mineThank you (seriously) for noting what others can't seem to grasp. FQ2/2013 was preordained to underperform FQ2/2012, not by Apple's UNDER PERFORMANCE this year, but by its extraordinary over performance last year.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2013 0:55:35 GMT -8
They are only marketing the heighest margin products and latest. IPhone 5 and Mini. They are not in competition with Samsung, regardless what the media would have you think. Samsung is growing because of ads, but that only works if you don't mind spending $30 a phone for ever. They can't do that and it is catching up to them quickly. 4S no ads is beating then. If they spend more money on Ads they may sell more. But I think they are on auto pilot when it comes to growth. They are now growing with market growth in smartphones and tablets. That is huge since they are on less carriers, in less countries and 2x more expensive in tablets and also have the highest margin in the business. You start spending money on ads when you need a boost. They don't need that boost. As they ramp down production of older models 4S, iPad, and now slowly the 5, they will get ready for a new ad campaign as those products get new upgrades. Keep in mind apple is in this for a long haul. It took them 15 years to hurt and surpass MS in revenue and just about the same to beat HP and Dell. They will continue to grow the Eco system of iOS devices and mobile to the tune of 25% a year. That is huge when you have an installed base of 500 million. Wait 3 years when they really unleash their many software solutions in mobile payments, search, shopping, iTV, gaming, enterprise, education, home automation, autos, and many other areas. Ovi, I'm assuming that where I highlighted "they", "them" and "their" you are referring to Apple, and where I did not highlight you are referring to Samsung. I'm in 100% agreement with your observation.
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Post by wheeles on Feb 24, 2013 4:23:26 GMT -8
Sadly, that is a real google ad for their latest creation. Not only has Google ripped off iOS, they are now ripping off the adverts for Apple's products.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 24, 2013 4:26:50 GMT -8
Gregg, all that crap you posted doesn't matter. WS doesn't give a damn that GM was out of this world last quarter. They don't make those logical comparisons if they don't want to.
If sentiment remains the same, and there is negative EPS growth, AAPL will fall again after earnings.
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Post by wheeles on Feb 24, 2013 4:36:54 GMT -8
I'm here, lurking and holding some dry powder. We need a catalyst, and I expect one to occur. This is not a year of large eps growth, but at the current PE, AAPL can rise significantly if something can trigger a shift of sentiment. I am now sitting at a swimming pool and practically everyone at the pool is holding a smartphone. That's stupid on a number of levels, but it demonstrates how important digital mobile devices have become. Globally. Apple is the leader in the most important industry of our generation. And it's stock is priced as if it was selling Edsels. This too shall pass. To be honest, there doesn't need to be a catalyst, although that would help. Technicals can improve just by having AAPL go sideways, which it's been doing for a while now. It's fair to say that in terms of percentage falls likely in the near future, there are other companies that are far more attractive from a shorting perspective. In the same way that people rotate money into and out of stocks, they do the same with shorts. That in itself would create buying pressure in AAPL as people cover shorts. As soon as we get a bit of lift, then the momo players will start coming back. Personally, I think AAPL is starting on a wave 3. This week could see a good rise. I will be watching for a positive analyst note or some news coming out early tomorrow to kick things off.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 24, 2013 7:47:53 GMT -8
I'm here, lurking and holding some dry powder. We need a catalyst, and I expect one to occur. This is not a year of large eps growth, but at the current PE, AAPL can rise significantly if something can trigger a shift of sentiment. I am now sitting at a swimming pool and practically everyone at the pool is holding a smartphone. That's stupid on a number of levels, but it demonstrates how important digital mobile devices have become. Globally. Apple is the leader in the most important industry of our generation. And it's stock is priced as if it was selling Edsels. This too shall pass. To be honest, there doesn't need to be a catalyst, although that would help. Technicals can improve just by having AAPL go sideways, which it's been doing for a while now. It's fair to say that in terms of percentage falls likely in the near future, there are other companies that are far more attractive from a shorting perspective. In the same way that people rotate money into and out of stocks, they do the same with shorts. That in itself would create buying pressure in AAPL as people cover shorts. As soon as we get a bit of lift, then the momo players will start coming back. Personally, I think AAPL is starting on a wave 3. This week could see a good rise. I will be watching for a positive analyst note or some news coming out early tomorrow to kick things off. Bird, your comments are always valuable. I've been following Apple's grind across the channel for the past month waiting for that shadow technical improvement you allude to. It's nearly here, and a move up this week, with month end, BOD speculation, could get us into first gear... The shareholder meeting is a wild card. Apple won't DO anything, but might they hint at something right there in front of shareholders? Oppy's Wall Street odyssey this past week is also welcome and appears to be constructive.....the 456-8 area could be a battleground. An interesting ten trading days coming up....
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