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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 21, 2024 5:18:22 GMT -8
WOW. Let me say that again. WOW. What a week. The market and AAPL took a nose dive when the FED announced the rate cuts, and indicated there would probably only be two more in 2025. Then, something crazy happened on the Triple Witching Friday. The market took off. We got new a new ATH and new ATH Close. Many of us took some off the table (for now) with the price being so high. Never wrong to take profits. I am very happy with the continued run. I'm also starting the thread for the second annual AAPL predictions. Some of you may recall in the 2024 predictions thread, some (don't worry Benoit, I won't call you out) thought I was on something because my estimates were so high.  . Let's see your estimates! |
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Dave
fire starter 
Posts: 4,627
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Post by Dave on Dec 21, 2024 6:56:11 GMT -8
When do most of the Wall Street brokers normally go on holiday vacation, leaving the trading to the bots? Does it start next Monday?
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4aapl
Moderator 
Posts: 4,423
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 21, 2024 8:30:39 GMT -8
When do most of the Wall Street brokers normally go on holiday vacation, leaving the trading to the bots? Does it start next Monday? Money never sleeps. When we are away at the relatives at xmas I'm often at least somewhat checking the market. And it's probably not just to get away from the noise of the 20+ person commotion. It seems like there is often a relative high or low around this time (more so when MWSF would help stew the excitement), and then there is also the tax year selling (one year it was the change in LTCG rates). Our figures are tiny compared to what some of these people are managing. I imagine the away time at xmas is minimized. This week might have been the peak time to make big changes, adding to the volatility. But there's still a week left in the year to make changes. We're making the trek down to the relatives in SoCal again. With warm temps and trees full of citrus, it's always a nice little break. This year's trip is going to be a little quicker than normal, with kids jobs and an avalanche class shrinking the timeframe. I don't think we have done a board meetup in CA before, even with around a third of members in SoCal and another third in NorCal. We'll see about a bay area meetup some other time, when there are warmer temps and maybe there is an in-person shareholder meeting or we can get a tour. If people are interested in meeting up in SoCal, ping me and we can try to set something up in Simi Valley, even if it's just meeting at a coffee shop or taking a walk in the hills or on the horse trails. (no problem if is doesn't work out. I figure most are busy at the holidays, but thought I should throw it out there just in case) |
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benoir
fire starter
From south of the Gulf of Mexico
Posts: 1,563
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Post by benoir on Dec 21, 2024 9:47:08 GMT -8
WOW. Let me say that again. WOW. What a week. The market and AAPL took a nose dive when the FED announced the rate cuts, and indicated there would probably only be two more in 2025. Then, something crazy happened on the Triple Witching Friday. The market took off. We got new a new ATH and new ATH Close. Many of us took some off the table (for now) with the price being so high. Never wrong to take profits. I am very happy with the continued run. I'm also starting the thread for the second annual AAPL predictions. Some of you may recall in the 2024 predictions thread, some (don't worry Benoit, I won't call you out) thought I was on something because my estimates were so high. . Let's see your estimates! So very happy to be called out by your preternatural prescience (better get close to $270…) |
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benoir
fire starter
From south of the Gulf of Mexico
Posts: 1,563
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Post by benoir on Dec 21, 2024 9:50:25 GMT -8
When do most of the Wall Street brokers normally go on holiday vacation, leaving the trading to the bots? Does it start next Monday? Money never sleeps. When we are away at the relatives at xmas I'm often at least somewhat checking the market. And it's probably not just to get away from the noise of the 20+ person commotion. It seems like there is often a relative high or low around this time (more so when MWSF would help stew the excitement), and then there is also the tax year selling (one year it was the change in LTCG rates). Our figures are tiny compared to what some of these people are managing. I imagine the away time at xmas is minimized. This week might have been the peak time to make big changes, adding to the volatility. But there's still a week left in the year to make changes. We're making the trek down to the relatives in SoCal again. With warm temps and trees full of citrus, it's always a nice little break. This year's trip is going to be a little quicker than normal, with kids jobs and an avalanche class shrinking the timeframe. I don't think we have done a board meetup in CA before, even with around a third of members in SoCal and another third in NorCal. We'll see about a bay area meetup some other time, when there are warmer temps and maybe there is an in-person shareholder meeting or we can get a tour. If people are interested in meeting up in SoCal, ping me and we can try to set something up in Simi Valley, even if it's just meeting at a coffee shop or taking a walk in the hills or on the horse trails. I am closer to SoCal than NorCal. |
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 4,423
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 21, 2024 15:50:59 GMT -8
I am closer to SoCal than NorCal. LOL! Drop on by and say hi. My daughter is going to be trying to log some extra drive time when we are headed down there. And my son is trying to getting extra flight time, but I don't think any planes he practices on would have the flight time to get over to you. |
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benoir
fire starter
From south of the Gulf of Mexico
Posts: 1,563
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Post by benoir on Dec 21, 2024 17:36:12 GMT -8
I am closer to SoCal than NorCal. LOL! Drop on by and say hi. My daughter is going to be trying to log some extra drive time when we are headed down there. And my son is trying to getting extra flight time, but I don't think any planes he practices on would have the flight time to get over to you. I would love to drop in... but with the exchange rate... it's an expensive cup of coffee. Mind you I bought into AAPL when the exchange rate was 52¢ its now 62¢ ish. I've still done very well, but if the dollar were at parity at the time... I am quite pleased log books are over for us, 3 of them!.... I'm in the university mentoring/motivation/fact checker stage now.... arrrgghh, does it ever end!! Yes you could need an extra range fuel tank to get to where I am. I think for me to get to a coffee shop in SoCal would take me 24-30 hours from my place (I don't have my own plane) - I am as far south as you can go in the antipodes (the place with the big jumping rats not the other place with kiwis) |
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Dave
fire starter
Posts: 4,627
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Post by Dave on Dec 22, 2024 8:08:08 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 4,423
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 22, 2024 10:31:25 GMT -8
And the phrase by the other guy was the one I was already thinking of. "Cautiously Optimistic". Most real (but small) drops span ~2.5-3 days. There's some follow thru. Maybe even some margin calls or short covering. Pricing is ahead of where things normally are. Does that need to reset, or will it reset? Or will earnings increase to make the pricing worth it? Or some combination, like earnings increasing 15% while the market only increases 5%, or earnings 10% and the market flatlines for a bit? We really don't know with certainty. Some is variable. Some is geopolitical, especially if US policies change. But most of that is all mid-term. Look at the pretty short term stuff, days to weeks, and it's likely that things don't change much. Look at longer term stuff, that spans presidential terms and economy/market upturns/downturns, and you worry less about the noise. But middle term? There's a lot of unknowns there, especially with any sort of precision as to when or how much things will change, positively or negatively. It's the xmas holiday season. Many people are in a good mood, thinking positive. Rates are going down, which mostly help things. There's tax end issues, but no known cliff of increased rates, or big losses to utilize. Overall, for the shorter term, as long as a big external thing doesn't happen, the tide should continue to rise, raising all ships. |
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. Let's see your estimates!
