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Post by Lstream on Jun 26, 2013 14:54:29 GMT -8
Yep. Apple going into Xmas with stale products would be worse than the situation we have now. The only way around this is likely two updates per year, which has its own challenges. What was wrong with how the product cycle for January-September 2012 worked? Releases staggered across the year with the two major releases (iPhone and iPad) six months apart. I am neutral on this point. If Apple has good reason for a mid-year iPad refresh, then maybe that is fine too. I don't think it changes much from the stock's perspective though. Seems like a minor detail in the overall picture to me.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jun 26, 2013 14:56:18 GMT -8
Updating products more than once a year would do nothing other than decrease margins and reduce hype & anticipation of the once a year refresh. Quit twisting my argument. I haven't seen one person here demand for Apple to refresh products more than once a year. All I ask is that the releases be spread throughout the year so demand can be adequately met and the consumer has more choice throughout the year. I thought until last fall they did spread things out fairly well. Then last fall they did everything all at once. We may just be seeing the bare shelves from that to this day. We may resume more spread out releases this fall though I can't say whether that will be good or bad. I kind of like rolling it all out in early fall to grab the holiday season with a new line up of lots of things.
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Post by rickag on Jun 26, 2013 15:05:03 GMT -8
BRUCE has JUST sold about $12,400,000 of AAPL shares. He now holds 10 shares of AAPL. JEFFREY has JUST sold about $13,240,000 of AAPL shares. He now holds 317 shares of AAPL. Hmmmmmmm..... Bruce, general council… Oh great googly moogly, just when I think we're @ our darkest AAPL moment your post wakes me up and I find I'm falling further into a friggin bottomless cave. 😖
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Post by podboy on Jun 26, 2013 15:45:21 GMT -8
I might sell too tomorrow, UNCLE. I remember when two of apple's top executives sold last year (forget the names) and I thought "why would they do that"?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 26, 2013 16:03:25 GMT -8
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Jun 26, 2013 16:10:06 GMT -8
BRUCE has JUST sold about $12,400,000 of AAPL shares. He now holds 10 shares of AAPL. JEFFREY has JUST sold about $13,240,000 of AAPL shares. He now holds 317 shares of AAPL. Hmmmmmmm..... Bruce, general council… Oh great googly moogly, just when I think we're @ our darkest AAPL moment your post wakes me up and I find I'm falling further into a friggin bottomless cave. 😖 It is my understanding that the Directors and Officers of the company have requirements to hold certain percentages of AAPL stock, so as to align their interests, with that of it's shareholders. I believe this started just before the Shareholder meeting. Out of compliance? Not for 4.5 more years!
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 26, 2013 16:13:47 GMT -8
Bruce, general council… Oh great googly moogly, just when I think we're @ our darkest AAPL moment your post wakes me up and I find I'm falling further into a friggin bottomless cave. 😖 It is my understanding that the Directors and Officers of the company have requirements to hold certain percentages of AAPL stock, so as to align their interests, with that of it's shareholders. I believe this started just before the Shareholder meeting. Out of compliance?"The applicable guideline level of Company stock ownership is expected to be satisfied within five years after November 13, 2012 for the CEO and Non-Employee Directors, within five years after February 6, 2013 for Executive Officers or, within five years after first becoming subject to these Stock Ownership Guidelines." JEFFREY "trading plan adopted by the reporting person on November 16, 2012." BRUCE "trading plan adopted by the reporting person on February 27, 2013." HMMMMM.....
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Jun 26, 2013 16:25:35 GMT -8
I find the timing of Bruce and Jeffrey's selling today a real corker. I spent the better part of the entire afternoon doing a spreadsheet on insider selling at aapl, goog, amzn, and crus, with the intent of showing how the officers only sold half their option grants on June 20, and to hold AAPL Officers up in good light, as compared to the other three. I guess in hindsight, i should not waste time and efforts on such folly. I also feel and "believe" the other officers that only disposed of half last week, will follow suit in the near term.
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Post by mace on Jun 26, 2013 16:46:20 GMT -8
Well...,put me in the "seek professional help" category as I too have my entire portfolio invested with AAPL ... Did do a bit of diversifying last year into real estate ... You are a statistical outlier, and you have also cashed out what appears to be a non trivial amount to invest in real property, as well as a sizable cash position. That is not all eggs in one basket by any stretch. He is not an outlier, a few guys I know plus me did similar.
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 26, 2013 17:12:56 GMT -8
PBS HAS an interesting video on HENRY FORDNOTE: 1) the Dodge Brothers... angry shareholders 2) FORD = APPLE GM = SAMESONG
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Jun 26, 2013 17:13:16 GMT -8
You are a statistical outlier, and you have also cashed out what appears to be a non trivial amount to invest in real property, as well as a sizable cash position. That is not all eggs in one basket by any stretch. He is not an outlier, a few guys I know plus me did similar. Mace, Statistically speaking, you and your acquaintances are outliers. I was once upon a time. I used to be foolish, and perhaps still am. My original PPS was well south of BillH, for way too long of a period, though, i will admit, it did give me a substantial leg up. After several serious burns in 2000, and again in 2008, i made a serious effort at diversification, and have slept considerably better since. Is it your opinion that today an all AAPL basket is prudent, just curious? Is it something that should be recommended, knowing what you do of Sponge, or anyone else for that matter? Just curious...
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Post by mace on Jun 26, 2013 18:10:54 GMT -8
Is it your opinion that today an all AAPL basket is prudent, just curious? Is it something that should be recommended, knowing what you do of Sponge, or anyone else for that matter? Clever question. Given Apple size and absent the extremely rare once-in-a-life-time genius, SJ, should follow the advice of financial pundits, not more than 10% of portfolio.
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Post by lucy on Jun 26, 2013 18:15:07 GMT -8
Something to consider...quarter end window dressing. How many companies want to be seen holding aapl, a non performing company. And just as last dividend paying month, they will rise into earnings (somewhat) but more towards Aug, dividend month.
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Post by calidagirl on Jun 26, 2013 18:41:41 GMT -8
No innovation/product releases??? I've stated many times that I believe Apple's next game changer is going to be "iWallet", a service not hardware. tinyurl.com/Passbook-a-go-goIt would appear, that at only 9 months old, Passbook has become the leader in digital payments/coupon redemptions. In the next 3 years I can see Passbook morphing into "iWallet" and being bigger than the App Store. "iWallet" on your iPhone. Everything you normally carry in your wallet (pictures, credit cards, membership cards, reminder lists, tickets, coupons, gift cards, MONEY) are in your iPhone. Fingerprint unlocking. 256 bit encryption ala iMessage = unbreakable data streams Does that mean I would have to give up my purse?
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Post by prazan on Jun 26, 2013 18:45:10 GMT -8
Lstream and Burgess, great posts. Thanks very much for taking the time to write them.
Looks like we can rule out that head and shoulders bottom, eh?
But we are approaching the April post-earnings low of 380-ish. This is yet another cliff-hanger moment, in a year that has seen us lose our grip too many times. A double bottom with a higher low would not be a bad thing; a bounce with solid follow through based on changing sentiment would be a nice dramatic twist.
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Post by applemuncher on Jun 26, 2013 19:30:07 GMT -8
It would be an understatement to say that I am disappointed with Apple’s management. I would like to add a new observation to the list.
How come Apple did not make a play for Waze?
Last summer, when the maps fiasco hit the fan, Tim Cook himself recommended downloading Waze. Apple knew it was a good product. It would have been great if Apple integrated the Waze technology into Maps. Instead, it looks like Waze is going to Google.
Why did they let this happen?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jun 26, 2013 20:05:34 GMT -8
Polish your crystal balls, I have a prediction poll: What's the lowest AAPL could possibly go before the July earnings report? (a) Right here, this is the bottom (b) 385ish, double bottom with April earnings (c) pick your number below WAG: (c) 380-ish
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 26, 2013 20:33:16 GMT -8
(c) 380-ish, which could still qualify as a double bottom due to dividend adjustment (though there's disagreement on div adjusting).
Could go lower, or it might find stability in the 370s-380s; we'll have to see. Zooming in, AAPL holding above 405 would at least show a possibility of staving off new lows (it's a micro support level), but everything looks heavily bearish IMHO until at least 417ish (reclaiming more than 61.8% of the drop starting June 19). Then there's the "how AAPL gets from price A to price B" factor as well.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 26, 2013 21:01:20 GMT -8
It would be an understatement to say that I am disappointed with Apple’s management. I would like to add a new observation to the list. How come Apple did not make a play for Waze? Last summer, when the maps fiasco hit the fan, Tim Cook himself recommended downloading Waze. Apple knew it was a good product. It would have been great if Apple integrated the Waze technology into Maps. Instead, it looks like Waze is going to Google. Why did they let this happen? I completely agree, and anyone who doesn't isn't using the app regularly, and thus doesn't know what he is missing. This is the only app I have on when in the car. I must have made 10 reports today (3 cops). Anyway, let's hope for some green soon...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 21:14:51 GMT -8
Useless depressing fact of the day:
Google now has a P/E ratio of 26.
If Apple had a P/E ratio of 26 it would have a market cap of $1 Trillion.
According to yahoo finance, average analyst growth predictions for the next 5 years are as follows: Google: 14.9% per annum Apple: 20.88% per annum
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Post by sponge on Jun 26, 2013 21:39:15 GMT -8
Useless depressing fact of the day: Google now has a P/E ratio of 26. If Apple had a P/E ratio of 26 it would have a market cap of $1 Trillion. According to yahoo finance, average analyst growth predictions for the next 5 years are as follows: Google: 14.9% per annum Apple: 20.88% per annum That's why we must be patient. Real growth will return but it will take time.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 21:45:33 GMT -8
Useless depressing fact of the day: Google now has a P/E ratio of 26. If Apple had a P/E ratio of 26 it would have a market cap of $1 Trillion. According to yahoo finance, average analyst growth predictions for the next 5 years are as follows: Google: 14.9% per annum Apple: 20.88% per annum Oh, but the stock market is "efficient!" /s It's beyond asinine. The tech media should be pointing this out this nonsense, but it doesn't fit a soundbite and the average CNBC viewer has the attention span of a gnat. Nice post earlier, Burgess; I could not agree more. FWIW, Apple signaled to its employees 3-4 months ago that refreshes were going to stretched out, perhaps to alert staff not to expect the traditional iPad refresh in March/April. This "talking point" turned out prophetic. Apple's way: Updates occur when the technology supports it and the changes are MEANINGFUL. The alternative of Samsung's "Spray and Pray" every 3-4 weeks is dumb. I hope Apple is buying AAPL DEEP at these prices. By my calculations, EPS goes up 8 cents every 10M shares repurchased for the June quarter, excluding the cash saved from paying out fewer dividends.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2013 21:53:55 GMT -8
If AAPL spent the entire $58B on share repurchases at today's PPS, Apple would have a shot at reporting a higher EPS than a year ago ($9.32), despite gross margin declining approx. 7% YOY.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jun 26, 2013 21:55:49 GMT -8
Which it won't, though there is a possibility that Apple could buy back shares at a "faster clip" this first quarter.
We'll know in about a month.
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Post by sponge on Jun 26, 2013 21:58:16 GMT -8
If AAPL spent the entire $58B on share repurchases at today's PPS, Apple would have a shot at reporting a higher EPS than a year ago ($9.32), despite gross margin declining approx. 7% YOY. I keep thinking that the summer of 2013 turned out to be an opportunity that even Apple did not anticipate. I am not sure they will buy as much as we would like, but in the end everyone is playing chicken and letting Apple get the first dip. At some point this fall all hell will break lose.
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