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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2013 21:41:58 GMT -8
Mercel, keep us posted on your 10-Q reading. That interpretation of "11M share benefit in September quarter" or something like that makes much more sense if Apple actually bought up 23M net shares and "ordered" a purchase of 11M more for later. Considering Apple by my estimates was going to buy ~100-120M shares, that is a HUGE buy and a very loud statement from Apple management. Must...try...to keep inherent bullishness...in check... I emailed Investor Relations with my analysis. I'm not convinced I'll receive a reply but it may be unnecessary if someone else beats me to the punch.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 0:30:19 GMT -8
But apple beat its new revenue guidance methodology range in Q2. So far we only have 2 quarters under the new guidance methodology with one quarter coming in $603 million above max guidance, and one quarter coming in $177 million below max guidance, Too early to be anything meaningful, but average over last 2 quarters is $390 million above max guidance. Actually we have 5 quarters under the new methodology. FQ3/2012 FQ4/2012 FQ1/2013 FQ2/2013 and FQ3/2013. Apple exceeded Revenue Guidance (whether single digit or lower of range) every time. They exceeded upper range just once. I think its safe to say that when PO gives Guidance...he means it. In the future you're going to be able to immediately dismiss estimates lower, or higher, than the range. We won't see the huge beats of the past, but I think that is a good thing. Eh? I only see a single revenue figure given as guidance for the first 3 quarters on your list, and apple bet that number every time. -------------------- FQ32012: Guidance: "looking ahead to the third fiscal quarter, we expect revenue of about $34 billion" Actual: $35.023 billion (+ $1.023 billion above guidance) -------------------- FQ42012: Guidance: "looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter, we expect revenue of about $34 billion" Actual: $35.965 billion (+ $1.965 billion above guidance) -------------------- FQ12013: Guidance: "looking ahead to the first fiscal quarter of 2013, we expect revenue of about $52 billion" Actual: $54.511 billion (+ $2.511 billion above guidance) -------------------- FQ22013: Guidance: "revenue between $41 billion and $43 billion" Actual: $43.603 billion (+ $603 million above max guidance) -------------------- FQ32013: Guidance: "revenue between $33.5 billion and $35.5 billion" Actual: $35.323 billion (- $177 million below max guidance) -------------------- I think its obvious apple has changed guidance metric when it switched to giving a range - I think everyone here agrees that it is now more accurate. But that guidance method has only been for the last 2 quarters results and so I think it is too early to say that it is or isn't likely to beat max guidance going forward. For instance today we heard on the conference call that apple experience an unexpectedly large revenue drop in Hong Kong, and didn't know why. Its very likely that if The Hong Kong region held up as Apple expected that revenue for the quarter would,have come in above maximum guidance once again for the twelfth quarter in a row.
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