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Post by sponge on Sept 12, 2013 7:02:53 GMT -8
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Post by rezonate on Sept 12, 2013 7:05:34 GMT -8
This is another piece the press is missing. iPhone 5 *had* to be replaced or Apple would miss all those potential carriers and sales. 5C is the updated second string, 5S is the new flagship. BOTH work on ANY network.
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Post by sponge on Sept 12, 2013 7:09:33 GMT -8
Phoebear, I hear you about the lack of lay-person tech messaging. Apple likes to hide things in plain sight. Like a magician, it's misdirection. They flash up something like the M7, do 3 seconds on how your fingerprint can authorize a purchase in the iTunes store. These little things are seen by only a few who follow the keynotes, and understood by a subset of even those. Those details will not drive AAPL at all, especially short term. But they are hints that look obvious several years down the road as the drivers of tech. Remember the Fingerworks acquisition in 2005? We now have multi-touch on iDevices, magic mouse, trackpads and laptops. In eight years will we see Touch ID on phones, watches, cars, TV remotes, game controllers, cameras, door locks, sports tickets and credit cards? Bingo When I saw the way the finger print authentication worked, I quickly saw the iPad getting it next and then the Macs. Apple introduces us slowly to amazing features and technology which paves way for improvements that will make our lives easier and more fun with their products. iBeacon is another subtle feature that opens up huge opportunities in wireless communication between devices. FaceTime talk only also paves way for easier non carrier communication that will challenge Skype.
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Post by terps530 on Sept 12, 2013 7:22:33 GMT -8
I've come to peace with the phone pricing strategy.
I think the way we need to think of the phones/pricing is that it really is almost just how it has always been:
The 5C is a slightly better 5. So with the 5S coming out, the 5C drops $100. Thus the $99 pricetag, which normally would have been the price for the 1 year old iphone5. This is a good deal because the 5C has some better features (slightly bigger battery, cool colors, fast 4G LTE ability, etc)
There is no new low end/cheap/internationally targeted phone. The 4 and 4S still exist, and will get refurbished like whoa with all the trade-ins, and these will be the low-end affordable phones for emerging markets. If they want the better tech, they can pay for it and still be able to get the 5C and 5S.
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Post by capablanca on Sept 12, 2013 7:34:01 GMT -8
When you hear the 5s described by Apple execs as our "most forward looking phone ever", its role as the foundation of many great new things coming seems clear to me. Thank you. I wanted to write this last evening, but since I had not read yesterday's whole thread, I restrained myself. Can anyone recall an instance where Apple referred to a new product as "forward looking"? Hello.
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Post by capablanca on Sept 12, 2013 7:47:07 GMT -8
OK Lovey, I'll give it a try.
Varying Tides: Unlike the pendulum, the tides vary according to multiple factors. The angle of the sun, angle of the moon, distance of sun and moon, the season, the latitude of the observer, and the shape of the surrounding land to name some.
Non-linear trends: For every additional increment on the x-axis, the affect on the y-axis is increasingly greater (or lesser) than the one preceding. The oft-misused term "exponential" is an example of a non-linear trend. (And perhaps function is a better word than trend.)
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Post by yellowhandman on Sept 12, 2013 7:47:32 GMT -8
Finally watching the event video...700 million iOS devices? That's a helluva installed base that is largely locked-in because of iTunes and App store purchases.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 7:58:52 GMT -8
These are iPhones manufactured for Verizon's CDMA network, therefore have only been available (jail broken) to China Mobile's TD-SCDMA network users for about 2 1/2 years. That means China Mobile subscribers, paying higher grey market prices, have bought more iPhones than have Verizon subscribers. I guess iPhone prices are too high for American users. If 15% of China Mobile iPhone users bought their iPhone in the first year of availability, then the upgrade potential is ~6.3 Million units, not to mention the potential emanating from the balance of China Mobile's 3G subscriber base (another 20 Million?). It doesn't seem to matter how you slice it, China Mobile has the potential to grow iPhone unit sales up to 20% YoY.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 8:02:38 GMT -8
Hilarious - Samsung has freaked out! Senior management telling Korean media that their future smartphones will also be 64 bit! Just a little problem with that statement: Android doesn't have a 64 bit version, and no 64 bit apps. Its a nice way for samsung to kill sales of its own premium phones though (including the Note 3 which hasn't even been released yet. I'd wager that Google has been working on a 64 bit version, we just don't know how serious they were about such an upgrade, and whether it will be backwards compatible to legacy Apps. My guess is that it will not.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 8:06:20 GMT -8
Yesterday evening Cramer (who, like most of you, is an idiot in many respects) I wouldn't say "most of you", but way to many.
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Post by Nevyn on Sept 12, 2013 8:06:22 GMT -8
470 being battled for. If we should climb over 473....thin air above. Too much to hope? Next week ...
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 12, 2013 8:11:15 GMT -8
These are iPhones manufactured for Verizon's CDMA network, therefore have only been available (jail broken) to China Mobile's TD-SCDMA network users for about 2 1/2 years. That means China Mobile subscribers, paying higher grey market prices, have bought more iPhones than have Verizon subscribers. I guess iPhone prices are too high for American users. If 15% of China Mobile iPhone users bought their iPhone in the first year of availability, then the upgrade potential is ~6.3 Million units, not to mention the potential emanating from the balance of China Mobile's 3G subscriber base (another 20 Million?). It doesn't seem to matter how you slice it, China Mobile has the potential to grow iPhone unit sales up to 20% YoY. The article does not break down what version of iPhone is being used. I'd wager you have tons of older iPhones which can be purchased unlocked on EBAY for very cheap .... well under $100 for several models.
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Post by Nevyn on Sept 12, 2013 8:14:27 GMT -8
OK, this has been run around here many times before, but it bears repeating as we collectively address the naysayers and pundits who concentrate totally on the price of the 5c. Apple does not care about price, they care about margins. Nobody is clamoring for Tesla to produce a cheap electric car "for emerging markets." Nobody seems to care that BMW and Mercedes have never built a sub-$10,000 automobile for the mass market. Apple produces luxury-level electronic devices. If you want that level of quality, you'll save pennies for an extra month or two and then go buy it. Buyer's remorse for a luxury product is almost non-existent, especially if purchased from a company with robust wrap-around support and rabid dedication to customer service. Mercedes does have B Class, C Class and Smart Cars. BMW 3 series is not that much more than higher end Honda Accord or Toyota Camry. I don't think Apple is the luxury market. They are in the higher end market for sure. Many expected Apple to move into the high side of mid range smartphone market. In North America Apple gets $450 from each phone that they sell. If they made the 5C less than $550, they are leaving money on the table. So the from that perspective the pricing makes sense. Maybe China Mobile will also have a subsidized model in which the 5C pricing will line up. Maybe that is why it took so long to get that deal done.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 12, 2013 8:18:56 GMT -8
FWIW, I've made several posts that could be viewed as less than optimistic. But ... I'm Long ...VERY LONG with a pretty large position so my financial future is definitely riding on Apple.
I think Apple hit it out of the park with the new phones .... the 5S is a work of art. The 5C is pretty darn amazing as well and I could see it being very popular especially with the younger crowd. I do question Apple's position on Market Share VS. Margins. It is pretty apparent that in the mobile space you can't really have both right now so choices must be made. I guess I'll have to trust their judgement with regards to what fits their long term vision.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 12, 2013 8:22:48 GMT -8
So yeah, I guess Gregg's 35M CM number was totally batshit crazy, huh? Hilarious - Samsung has freaked out! Senior management telling Korean media that their future smartphones will also be 64 bit! Just a little problem with that statement: Android doesn't have a 64 bit version, and no 64 bit apps. Even more daunting, are the legions of phone manufacturers who do not have Samsung's C&D (copy and development) and foundries to churn out new models every 6 months. Apple has 2 phones to adapt to 64 bit (done). How many forked and fragmented Android phones are there? Half of which are running two OS's or more behind? "Duh, which App store to I use, the old one, or the 64-bit one?!?!"
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 8:25:05 GMT -8
470 being battled for. If we should climb over 473....thin air above. Too much to hope? Next week ... Nope...today....
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Post by zzmac on Sept 12, 2013 8:38:44 GMT -8
I'm glad she left me out. Yesterday evening Cramer (who, like most of you, is an idiot in many respects) I wouldn't say "most of you", but way to many.
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Post by larrydoyle on Sept 12, 2013 8:38:51 GMT -8
Yesterday evening Cramer (who, like most of you, is an idiot in many respects) commented about something that I had been saying to my husband which was -- "What happened to all the OMG products that TC said he was delivering this fall?"/ Fall doesn't even start for another ten days. I say this not to be snarky but as a reminder that analysts like Cramer, and the media in general, create their own reality that they then react to. The "cheap" iPhone is only the most recent example. (And it's not something that is unique to Apple coverage; it's made political discourse all but impossible in this country) Anyway, I agree with the others that the 5S is a huge trojan horse, and that you will start seeing a lot of coverage going forward about the implications of it. Here's a couple: Touch ID is only available to Apple right now; my guess is they want to work out the bugs and make the public comfortable with it before expanding its use. But allowing any app access to the result of a verification (as opposed to the verification process) would be trivial once they've decided to do so. That M7 chip along with GPS will allow Apple to determine if people are driving, what road they are on, and how fast they are going. Any ideas of how that may be used?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 8:41:55 GMT -8
so this fingerprint sensor / touch ID technology.... I'm sure apple has a patent on it right? not saying it'll stop samsung from copying it exactly but that could be a deterrent to how / how long they will be able to copy it 'successfully'? Apple has several patents covering different aspects of its fingerprint reader technology. In my opinion, the best/strongest patent covers the manufacturing process for making the reader durable. Samsung will have to copy both to make a fingerprint reader for the Galaxy. Additionally, Android will need API's to make print reading possible. I have a suspicion that 64 bit is necessary to make fingerprint reading work properly and in real time. What Samsung might need (but doesn't have) to duplicate Apple's fingerprint reader: Processing power 64 bit Android Fingerprint reader APIs Fingerprint reader software Fingerprint reader hardware Fingerprint reader hardware manufacturing process
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 8:42:43 GMT -8
Yesterday was one of those "huh" days where reality and sentiment just can't get into line with each other. Twenty million shares change hands on alleged disappointment.
Now, today, we see the build back as the alleged disappointment begins to be reconsidered in light of just what Apple did a couple of days ago.
As others have noted, the implications of all this is just coming to light. It's positive, not negative, on the whole...by a LOT.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Sept 12, 2013 9:09:19 GMT -8
Samsung will have to copy both to make a fingerprint reader for the Galaxy. Additionally, Android will need API's to make print reading possible. And what are the chances that Samsung, or any Android hardware manufacturer, will take the pains to encode and sequester your fingerprint information like Apple has done. I would be surprised if Google is not salivating at the prospect of adding this to the cache of personal information they have collected about you.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 12, 2013 9:17:59 GMT -8
Just a heads up regarding the disappointment about "amazing products in the fall"...it's still summer. I'm still hoping Cook delivers. Not that the 5S isn't awesome.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 9:36:29 GMT -8
Just a heads up regarding the disappointment about "amazing products in the fall"...it's still summer. I'm still hoping Cook delivers. Not that the 5S isn't awesome. Now there are reports that a new Apple TV hardware device will be arriving in October along with new Ipads...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 9:50:31 GMT -8
I've come to peace with the phone pricing strategy. I think the way we need to think of the phones/pricing is that it really is almost just how it has always been: The 5C is a slightly better 5. So with the 5S coming out, the 5C drops $100. Thus the $99 pricetag, which normally would have been the price for the 1 year old iphone5. This is a good deal because the 5C has some better features (slightly bigger battery, cool colors, fast 4G LTE ability, etc) There is no new low end/cheap/internationally targeted phone. The 4 and 4S still exist, and will get refurbished like whoa with all the trade-ins, and these will be the low-end affordable phones for emerging markets. If they want the better tech, they can pay for it and still be able to get the 5C and 5S. While not perfect, my speculation that Apple may be introducing 3 new models (iPhone 5A, 5B and 5C) to standardize on Qualcom's world chip and the 9 pin connector was pretty damn close. Certainly my price speculation on the 3 model tiers was spot on. I am excited about 1st weekend sales prospects. I really can see >7 Million units being reported. Think about it. Even without a China Mobile announcement iPhones will be sold into that market (140,000,000 3G subscribers) in large quantities, availability on China Telecom (more than twice the size of Verizon) and China Unicom on first day, then you have DoCoMo with 68,000,000 subscribers (DoCoMo no longer offers Samsung handsets), not to mention the real possibility of an EU rebound due to LTE compatibility on all EU networks. I think the market for the 5S (fingerprint reader) is enormous, much greater than people are factoring. I'll be modeling a higher ASP for FQ1/2014. I think Apple's expansion of the first weekend market is mind boggling. Could we see 8 Million units reported?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 12, 2013 9:56:03 GMT -8
I'm very unsure of that number. Huge delta from the carrier data point of 15M, Mar 2012.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 12, 2013 9:56:27 GMT -8
AAPL-wise, quite serious about right shoulder watch.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 12, 2013 9:58:04 GMT -8
Just a heads up regarding the disappointment about "amazing products in the fall"...it's still summer. I'm still hoping Cook delivers. Not that the 5S isn't awesome. I hope iPad mini maybe retina is what you're looking for. I don't think there's anything else given Product Logjam 2013 edition. Something in calendar Q1 2014 would be great though.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 12, 2013 10:00:12 GMT -8
Hey all - my apologies - what I "MEANT" to say was "Cramer, who like most of you on this board would agree, is an idiot".....I certainly didn't mean to say any of YOU were but I sure got a good chuckle out of the responses. I may not always agree with what some have to say but I appreciate the different perspectives and NO ONE here is an idiot! Sorry about that!
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 12, 2013 10:01:42 GMT -8
AAPL-wise, quite serious about right shoulder watch. Mav - where would the stock need to go to form/complete the right shoulder?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 10:02:37 GMT -8
Just a heads up regarding the disappointment about "amazing products in the fall"...it's still summer. I'm still hoping Cook delivers. Not that the 5S isn't awesome. I hope iPad mini maybe retina is what you're looking for. I don't think there's anything else given Product Logjam 2013 edition. Something in calendar Q1 2014 would be great though. As noted, if we get the new M7 motion sensor chip and new Apple TV hardware...maybe something a bit interesting there? If not then, then soon.....
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