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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 12, 2013 14:17:45 GMT -8
Avi's WAG for AAPL as of last night: correction completed within a week (one more low), then resume uptrend. Wonder what might be happening in a week's time?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 14:19:43 GMT -8
This is huge and terrific news. In edit: if true...
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Post by rickag on Sept 12, 2013 15:25:44 GMT -8
This is huge and terrific news. In edit: if true... Increase the dividend by about 10¢ per quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 15:45:49 GMT -8
Looking back at saved links, I found (should have remembered) that first weekend iPhone 5 sales in China were 40% (>2,000,000) of US launch first weekend sales (>5,000,000).
Combined first weekend sales was >7,000,000 units.
But that total did not include DoCoMo, a China Mobile compatible model/s, or better EU LTE compatibility.
Add in organic growth (historic 3 year average first weekend growth rate) of 26% and i'm thinking this year's first weekend sales could exceed 9 Million iPhones.
The fun part of this is the extrapolation of the relationship between first weekend results to December quarter results. Now this is pure speculation, because the addressable market has changed so much, but the implication is 73 Million iPhones sold during the December quarter.
As I've stated before, Apple pre-determines how many iPhones to make available for first weekend sales, and use that number to signal to WS what its December quarter results will be. It all depends on how many iPhones Apple is prepared to provide for that weekend.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 12, 2013 15:55:38 GMT -8
iPhone 5S isn't preshipping this year. The only sales will be from those jamming Apple stores and carrier lines and other channel partners over 3 days. It could be considerable nonetheless but if your aim is partly to make a number, you want to stuff a 777 with 400k or so iPhones to ship to doors.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 16:09:00 GMT -8
I'm glad the 5C works on other carriers, but on my and most people's local networks, it will be exactly the same as the 5. I hope Apple sells 20 gazillion of the mofos. But it is basically a year-old phone in a new package, so let's not pretend otherwise. A year old iPhone that addresses 137,000,000 previously underserved subscribers, that have already demonstrated willingness to spend US$1,000, or more, on the grey market for feature crippled iPhones. Let's not ignore that.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 16:14:49 GMT -8
The article is unclear about the quarter being referred to, but PO stated during the July conference call that Apple had already committed to buying 12,000,000 shares this quarter. Stretching that commitment to $16 Billion (32 Million shares @ $500 each) is not that big a stretch. It is the uncertainty of share count that has me focusing on Net Income (unaffected by share count) this quarter.
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Post by mace on Sept 12, 2013 16:17:51 GMT -8
I'm glad the 5C works on other carriers, but on my and most people's local networks, it will be exactly the same as the 5. I hope Apple sells 20 gazillion of the mofos. But it is basically a year-old phone in a new package, so let's not pretend otherwise. A year old iPhone that addresses 137,000,000 previously underserved subscribers, that have already demonstrated willingness to spend US$1,000, or more, on the grey market for feature crippled iPhones. Let's not ignore that. That's the difference in perspective between a geek and a marketer.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 16:35:18 GMT -8
Not surprising e.g. JDSoCal thinks is nip-and-tuck when I pointed out this to him yesterday. Yes, and I stand by that. Only a significant boost in CPU speed/processing power/design, greater storage, larger or better resolution, screen, etc., would constitute a major revision, and I think most tech experts and commentators would agree with that. I'm glad the 5C works on other carriers, but on my and most people's local networks, it will be exactly the same as the 5. I hope Apple sells 20 gazillion of the mofos. But it is basically a year-old phone in a new package, so let's not pretend otherwise. The majority of samsungs smartphone sales are "new" phones that are shipped with low end technology that is 1-2 years behind the newest generation chips. No one saw the iPad mini when it was introduced as being anything other than "new" despite it using a SoC and screen technology more than a year or two old.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 16:38:42 GMT -8
Just downloaded iOS7 GM, adding new ringtones for voice, messaging, mail, etc. Verrrry nice. Apple really improved the OS. Everyone is going to appreciate the new look. I've played with Android as much as I can without getting kicked out of ATT and it looks amateurish and cartoonish with the saturated colors and the inconsistent UIs from the multiple skins of the manufacturers. I can't find anything to recommend it.
What is up with those who express preference for Android? It's weird.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 16:39:25 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 12, 2013 16:40:17 GMT -8
Just downloaded iOS7 GM, adding new ringtones for voice, messaging, mail, etc. Verrrry nice. Apple really improved the OS. Everyone is going to appreciate the new look. I've played with Android as much as I can without getting kicked out of ATT and it looks amateurish and cartoonish with the saturated colors and the inconsistent UIs from the multiple skins of the manufacturers. I can't find anything to recommend it. What is up with those who express preference for Android? It's weird. Hate Apple, overpriced/underpowered, closed, with the occasional "it hasn't been cool since Steve Jobs", etc.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 12, 2013 16:41:40 GMT -8
"We promise to do our best to save ourselves from ourselves by finally carrying the iPhone."
"OK, deal."
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 16:46:24 GMT -8
Perhaps believing the 42 million iPhone number requires an investigation as to why all of a sudden everyone is offering a iPhone trade in program (including Apple).
The volume of 2nd hand iPhone volume is going to trail iPhone sales numbers by roughly 2-3 years, and so over the last year we are seeing the massive increase in iPhone sales that occurred with the iPhone 4 flow though to massive growth in iPhone 2nd hand market. Now that we are coming up on 2 year anniversary of the 4S launch, that 2nd hand market is going to get even bigger.
And all these millions of 2nd hand iPhones have to be going somewhere - my guess is that the majority of them are going to emerging markets like china, where people are happy to have a used iPhone, especially when new phones are so expensive.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 12, 2013 16:49:32 GMT -8
(when not part of a subsidy/postpaid plan)
I'm no telecom analyst, maybe postpaid is passe or on the way there, but it still exists last I checked. We'll never know, but safe to say with so many carriers, the great majority of iPhones are bought postpaid.
China Mobile will present one heck of an interesting case. Will that carrier be something of an outlier with pent-up demand skewing the first X quarters of sales, followed by slower YOY growth once there's a "baseline"? Or will iPhone actually help drive 3G+ adoption with the carrier?
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Post by rezonate on Sept 12, 2013 17:10:25 GMT -8
Just downloaded iOS7 GM, adding new ringtones for voice, messaging, mail, etc. Verrrry nice. Apple really improved the OS. Everyone is going to appreciate the new look. I've played with Android as much as I can without getting kicked out of ATT and it looks amateurish and cartoonish with the saturated colors and the inconsistent UIs from the multiple skins of the manufacturers. I can't find anything to recommend it. What is up with those who express preference for Android? It's weird. Hate Apple, overpriced/underpowered, closed, with the occasional "it hasn't been cool since Steve Jobs", etc. Can't quite understand either. Was running iOS 7 beta 6 on the iPhone and it chomped battery. The GM seems a bit better but still needs updated 3rd party apps to be updated to stop the drain. I waited for the GM to load on the iPad Mini - seamless. Less is definitely more, IMO. The overhaul was a good one.
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Post by rickag on Sept 12, 2013 17:15:59 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 17:39:47 GMT -8
What is up with those who express preference for Android? It's weird. Paranoid schizophrenia compounded by feelings of inadequacy.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 17:46:35 GMT -8
Perhaps believing the 42 million iPhone number requires an investigation as to why all of a sudden everyone is offering a iPhone trade in program (including Apple). The volume of 2nd hand iPhone volume is going to trail iPhone sales numbers by roughly 2-3 years, and so over the last year we are seeing the massive increase in iPhone sales that occurred with the iPhone 4 flow though to massive growth in iPhone 2nd hand market. Now that we are coming up on 2 year anniversary of the 4S launch, that 2nd hand market is going to get even bigger. And all these millions of 2nd hand iPhones have to be going somewhere - my guess is that the majority of them are going to emerging markets like china, where people are happy to have a used iPhone, especially when new phones are so expensive. ;D The low cost iPhones so many have been clamoring for.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 18:05:11 GMT -8
I believe today is the one year birthday of AFB 2. Thanks again to Lovey for giving us all a place to hang out, brag, gripe and make bad jokes. Oh, and Apple had an all time high about then too....
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 18:06:06 GMT -8
China Mobile will present one heck of an interesting case. Will that carrier be something of an outlier with pent-up demand skewing the first X quarters of sales, followed by slower YOY growth once there's a "baseline"? Or will iPhone actually help drive 3G+ adoption with the carrier?I don't know : ) tinyurl.com/CM-3G-UpgradeWhat do you think? : )
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Post by osx10 on Sept 12, 2013 18:08:54 GMT -8
It's already September 13th in other parts of the world.
Is the pre-sale of the 5C only in the states or might we start seeing some tidbits globally online about pre-orders etc?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 19:22:15 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 19:34:24 GMT -8
The Microsoft store wants to sell iPads now? Retail sales inside those funeral parlors have to be dismal. I remember a guy (probably a MSFT employee) loitering at a local Starbucks trying to build interest ahead of the Surface launch. No one was curious. He was the loneliest guy in the place. Seriously, there are no easy answers on how to fix Mr. Softie.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 19:37:41 GMT -8
Apple will have plenty of iPhone 5c's to sell online at 12:00AM PST. No need to worry about ordering one and being pushed back a week like last year for the 5. It is the 5s people want.
Apple marketing is giving the 5c a head start with online ordering a week early. Simple as that.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 19:52:15 GMT -8
Apple will have plenty of iPhone 5c's to sell online at 12:00AM PST. No need to worry about ordering one and being pushed back a week like last year for the 5. It is the 5s people want. Apple marketing is giving the 5c a head start with online ordering a week early. Simple as that. Lets see how long it takes the 5c to move off delivery on September 20th....any bets?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 12, 2013 19:53:55 GMT -8
We'll see how it plays out. If Apple can keep up with demand opening weekend, maybe it's event marketing to some degree. But c'mon, is it REALLY just so Apple can show off a launch video for the iPad event? It wouldn't have hurt for Apple to have a later preorder window.
This go-round, I'm counting on good foot traffic to worldwide points of sale to help meet the weekend iPhone sales numbers - well, if Apple still gives them.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2013 20:08:23 GMT -8
With China added to launch weekend, I think Apple would really like more of a balance between 5s and 5c, since the former is the supermodel here. Nothing wrong with Kate Winslet, but the 5s is Sophia Vergara.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 12, 2013 20:22:38 GMT -8
Well, there's no incentive for Apple to delay iPhone 5S ordering if it has sufficient supply. So...we agree?
Of course this should all be a moot point within a couple months.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 12, 2013 20:23:03 GMT -8
With China added to launch weekend, I think Apple would really like more of a balance between 5s and 5c, since the former is the supermodel here. Nothing wrong with Kate Winslet, but the 5s is Sophia Vergara. Shu Qi is now pretty pissed at you
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