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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 20:10:16 GMT -8
1,000 cuts may not matter to Apple. Most of us here aren't as well-funded. Now as far as sales from Apple Stores themselves, Mercel, I think you're asking too much from Apple Store employees to move 4M iPhones on their own. I refer you to my thought exercise from a couple days back: Agreed that I'm optimistic here. And not all 400 stores are going to be represented at launch, but here's the back of a napkin hypothetical. Looks worse than a used napkin too -- click to see the #s. Oh, and the hours are Friday - Sun (not Sat.)
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Post by pauls on Sept 19, 2013 20:12:59 GMT -8
"1,000 cuts may not matter to Apple.
Most of us here aren't as well-funded."
Point taken. But then again, was anyone really surprised that the stock sold off when the 5c pricing was announced? Or the 'news' that there would likely be supply constraints with the 5s? It's a volatile stock, after all. Personally, if I 'knew' 5c pricing I would have lightened up prior to the event. I should have known when Gruber made his 11th hour hint.
Unbalanced news media sucks and Apple will always get extra helpings of it. Along with massive amounts of free advertising. But I don't blame the $50 haircut on the media. That was WS.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 19, 2013 20:15:13 GMT -8
12:01 am PT
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2013 20:16:11 GMT -8
If you weren't $50 surprised you're probably not trading or detached from the trials of us small people, retired on a beach somewhere.
The "you" isn't _you_ you btw. You know? ;D
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 20:18:07 GMT -8
"1,000 cuts may not matter to Apple. Most of us here aren't as well-funded." Point taken. But then again, was anyone really surprised that the stock sold off when the 5c pricing was announced? Or the 'news' that there would likely be supply constraints with the 5s? It's a volatile stock, after all. Personally, if I 'knew' 5c pricing I would have lightened up prior to the event. I should have known when Gruber made his 11th hour hint. Unbalanced news media sucks and Apple will always get extra helpings of it. Along with massive amounts of free advertising. But I don't blame the $50 haircut on the media. That was WS. Apple didn't start to sell off 5c pricing until after the talking heads went bozo later that day and the next. The financial media is part of WS.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 20:21:16 GMT -8
I won't be able to order online, as I'm a business account holder, and I'm not going to navigate a train wreck that ATT calls a website either. The line at my Apple store was around 15-20 deep around an hour ago. No, I'm not in it -- Mav's holding my spot. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2013 20:21:30 GMT -8
Mercel, I hate to say it but that micro-spreadsheet probably just outclassed Munster.
AT WAS RIGHT! Non sequiturs and disagreement about Phil Schiller's competence aside...wow.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2013 20:22:24 GMT -8
Surrrre I am. I'm ordering in October. And you...might want to do a little more research on just who that "Mav" you hired to stand in line realllly is.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 20:26:15 GMT -8
Mercel, I hate to say it but that micro-spreadsheet probably just outclassed Munster. AT WAS RIGHT! Non sequiturs and disagreement about Phil Schiller's competence aside...wow. LOL. I told you it was rough. Now, I could have made it look really slick with charts and unsupported data, but it DOES give you an idea that with all stores running full tilt, what's the upper limit on iPhone unit sales for three days with inventory. And by the way, my # is 3,000 units per store per day, more than your 2,000 and less than a boffo 5,000 # you mentioned.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 19, 2013 20:35:44 GMT -8
Why is everyone so negative on apple going down tomorrow???
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Post by pauls on Sept 19, 2013 20:36:29 GMT -8
If you weren't $50 surprised you're probably not trading or detached from the trials of us small people, retired on a beach somewhere. The "you" isn't _you_ you btw. You know? ;D Nope, not trading, just long shares (plus a small sad Jan14 bcs.) And I do understand the HUGE pain differential. And I wish I was on a beach retired, sort of. If I were a trader I would have gotten hurt bad because I was CERTAIN that 5c would be more like $400. I just KNEW it. But I was wrong, and that is really the pain, as I see it, not the media. The good news is that I'm accepting that Apple might be smarter than I am with regard pricing, and all will be well in short time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 20:37:28 GMT -8
Why is everyone so negative on apple going down tomorrow??? I'm not down on AAPL. But the story tomorrow will NOT be "crushing demand." It will be "insufficient, constrained supplies." That's bear talk.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 20:40:05 GMT -8
I don't subscribe to the belief that false and negative reporting doesn't hurt the long term prospects of the stock, and the long term investor. No single article will likely matter six months from now, but cumulatively they sour sentiment and hurt the stock price in the long run. Hence the phrases, "death by a thousand paper cuts," and "nibbled to death by ducks." I subscribe to the notion that false, erroneous reporting (99% of it) only hurts to the point that those that know can't resist the buying opportunity. Instead of tilting at media windmills, become one of the knowledgeable, and buy the dips caused by crap rumors/reporting.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 19, 2013 20:42:03 GMT -8
But we all know its a short term supply issue. It's not like some dude waiting overnight who doesn't get a goldy is going to go across the street and chest bump with a s4? I think markets are fwd looking. I hope tomorrow is a big up day
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 20:43:46 GMT -8
I don't subscribe to the belief that false and negative reporting doesn't hurt the long term prospects of the stock, and the long term investor. No single article will likely matter six months from now, but cumulatively they sour sentiment and hurt the stock price in the long run. Hence the phrases, "death by a thousand paper cuts," and "nibbled to death by ducks." I subscribe to the notion that false, erroneous reporting (99% of it) only hurts to the point that those that know can't resist the buying opportunity. Instead of tilting at media windmills, become one of the knowledgeable, and buy the dips caused by crap rumors/reporting. When does the crap rumors/reporting end so I can sell?
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Post by pauls on Sept 19, 2013 20:51:18 GMT -8
"1,000 cuts may not matter to Apple. Most of us here aren't as well-funded." Point taken. But then again, was anyone really surprised that the stock sold off when the 5c pricing was announced? Or the 'news' that there would likely be supply constraints with the 5s? It's a volatile stock, after all. Personally, if I 'knew' 5c pricing I would have lightened up prior to the event. I should have known when Gruber made his 11th hour hint. Unbalanced news media sucks and Apple will always get extra helpings of it. Along with massive amounts of free advertising. But I don't blame the $50 haircut on the media. That was WS. Apple didn't start to sell off 5c pricing until after the talking heads went bozo later that day and the next. The financial media is part of WS. Who knows why people sold? My 'sentiment' is that it was all about the 'high' cost of the 'plastic' phone coupled with low shipping quantities of the 'awesome' one. We agree the talking heads are bozos. And I agree that they influence the market, and are enemy number one (or your best friend, should they be on your side) for short term traders. But I do think the actual 'news' was the culprit, not the spin in this particular tumble. Maybe Apple could have prepared expectations a little better? Or not. I don't think they much care about short term investors. They had to know that there were huge expectations for a lower cost phone, among investors. I guess my point is it's a bumpy ride, whether or not you pay attention to CNBC.
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Post by pauls on Sept 19, 2013 20:56:36 GMT -8
"It's not like some dude waiting overnight who doesn't get a goldy is going to go across the street and chest bump with a s4?"
Exactly. That is the story. It's a combination of cabbage patch dolls and willy wonka gold tickets. Nothing else will do.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 21:00:02 GMT -8
OK, well I will apologize to anyone here that may have been offended...those who like to play weeklies are gamblers in my mind and if that offends anyone, I'm sorry. To you though, I could care less now if it offended you as you're obviously an arrogant asshole. Quite a complement from the guy who came on here after this horrid week and, and taunted anyone without *his* long-term investment horizon and strategy as a sucker - on a board run by an active trader no less. So yeah, I'll say what many here are thinking, fuck you very much, and in deference to the moderator, any further communication should be in PM or on person. I know reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, but Apple is up for the week, so before you insult anyone else, learn to read a stock chart. Maybe that's why you're not having a good week. I never said anyone was a sucker, I said I believed playing weeklies is gambling and you shouldn't be upset when the roll isn't in your favor. But if you have any proof that you can predict weekly moves in Apple, I'm all ears and I'll be the first to apologize. But all I see from you is someone who thinks he's smarter than everyone else without bringing any facts up
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Post by sponge on Sept 19, 2013 21:11:46 GMT -8
I have been in this forum since 2005. This discussion has happened every month or quarter when the stock corrects. It has taken me 8 years but I am learning. We will go up and down but every two years we will be higher. Fair price.? But higher never the less.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 21:14:34 GMT -8
1,000 cuts may not matter to Apple. Most of us here aren't as well-funded. Now as far as sales from Apple Stores themselves, Mercel, I think you're asking too much from Apple Store employees to move 4M iPhones on their own. I refer you to my thought exercise from a couple days back: Think in terms of sales per hour per Store employee. I'll bet 3 per hour is easily doable. My Apple Store in little old Spokane is going to have about 25 employees on the floor for the duration. Launch weekend 25 employees X 2 sales per hour X 12 hour days X 3 days. 1800 iPhones X 400 Stores. 720,000 iPhones via Apple Stores, and that's based on small Store staffing Company wide. ATT and Verizon have a combined 4400 Stores. 10 employees per Store. Launch weekend 10 employees X 2 sales per hour X 12 hour days X 3 days. 3,168,000 iPhones via ATT and Verizon. Apple Store, ATT and Verizon potential = 3,888,000 iPhones, and that does not include Great Britain, Japan, France, Germany, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia or the other 20 Countries the iPhone is launching in.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 19, 2013 21:18:50 GMT -8
The big question is supply of the 5S. How many 5S's do they actually have out there to sell, worldwide? Nobody here can calculate or figure out that number, it's pure guessing.
Not allowing pre-sales makes me think it's a small number indeed, like less than 3 million.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 21:51:35 GMT -8
I won't be able to order online, as I'm a business account holder, and I'm not going to navigate a train wreck that ATT calls a website either. The line at my Apple store was around 15-20 deep around an hour ago. No, I'm not in it -- Mav's holding my spot. ;D There's an RV parked in front of the Spokane Store with a bunch of people taking breaks/naps. There are about 100 people queued up. The front of the Store is draped, and there is a squad car parked in front. I was there for this Store's Grand Opening. About 30 people (including me) spent the night on the sidewalk. About 200 - 300 people showed yp 2 hours before the Store opened. The police officer is expecting another 50 to spend the night, but will be getting help at 7:00 AM. But all this speculation about sales capacities, etc., is for naught. I stood in line at an ATT Store for the launch of the original iPhone, and again for the iPhone 3. On both occasions the ATT Store ran out after about 100 units were sold. For the remainder of the day, ATT took orders. I have long contended that Apple already knows how many iPhones it is going to sell this weekend, because that is the number Apple made available for instant gratification. If that's true, and I strongly believe it is, then first weekend units were manufactured, and in route, before reports of supply "constraints" started appearing. Further, if you think about it, nobody outside of Apple knows how many units were manufactured for 1st weekend sales. So how could anyone know if there is going to be supply "constraints" for any particular reason? There will be supply "constraints", but only because Apple does have max production limits, and initial demand will far outstrip that capacity. These supply "constraint" reports are just more journalistic tripe, the same kind we've been deriding for oh so long.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 21:53:50 GMT -8
Oh, it was cool to see the crowds around the Apple Store, in a part of town that rolls the sidewalks up (on week nights) at 9:00 PM.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 21:58:49 GMT -8
The big question is supply of the 5S. How many 5S's do they actually have out there to sell, worldwide? Nobody here can calculate or figure out that number, it's pure guessing. Not allowing pre-sales makes me think it's a small number indeed, like less than 3 million. Three million? That's 60% of last year's 1st weekend sales. I'd be very happy with that, considering this year we have the 5C. Another thought is that Apple wants to start the new fiscal year with an abundance of visibility/demand for its flagship product.
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 19, 2013 22:27:57 GMT -8
While I'm excited to see how fast the 5S gets sold out tonight, I'm also worried that AAPL might fall tomorrow with the bears feasting on "not enough supply".
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2013 22:29:35 GMT -8
You're just adorable, iFixit:
"We worry about how well the sapphire crystal covering the sensor can protect it from degrading over time like most CMOS fingerprint sensors. If not, it could become a ticking time bomb, just like that super-glued battery."
KABOOM! (I tend not to link to hysterical comments.)
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 19, 2013 22:31:56 GMT -8
While I'm excited to see how fast the 5S gets sold out tonight, I'm also worried that AAPL might fall tomorrow with the bears feasting on "not enough supply". It's called a buying opportunity. A guy by the name of Warren Buffett has made a pretty decent living by specifically waiting for such buying opportunities. Buy when they're having a sale.
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aapldamus
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Post by aapldamus on Sept 19, 2013 22:56:59 GMT -8
It's almost time!
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 19, 2013 23:00:08 GMT -8
And... it's 3am (NY).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2013 23:02:01 GMT -8
While I'm excited to see how fast the 5S gets sold out tonight, I'm also worried that AAPL might fall tomorrow with the bears feasting on "not enough supply". In anticipation of that I sold my Oct Week 1 $460/$465 BCSs today with a 50¢ profit.
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