Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 22, 2013 23:36:15 GMT -5
You guys, it's not me "relying" on anything. I'm just pointing out where the benchmark will stand in the market sentiment if/when Apple reports numbers tomorrow morning. If they report less than 7 million, I bet it will be seen as a decline. Sure, we can shout "Supply issues!" as much as we want, but there are no refs in this ballgame.
With China launching the same weekend as the rest of the world, the compare to beat from last year's first weekend is 7 million (5 + 2 from China).
Well, I did say 6-7M, although the 2M for China seems a tad arbitrary.
At the end of the day, it's production, not demand. Seems to me like supplies were thinner everywhere this time around, which makes sense with China swallowing part of the # Apple built.
Yes, ramp-up, and the China launch happened when iPhone 5 was in much better, or just plain actual, supply/demand balance.
But, China was added as a launch country from the get-go, the iPhone 5C is also expected to be part of the initial iPhone sales numbers (if any) and impossible Apple expectations. And it's pretty obvious that the addition of China right off the bat was an intentional choice on Apple's part - it could've delayed for a couple weeks and still rightly claim huge progress from last year.
A "weak" sales number (hopefully no "worse" than 6-7M) combined with strong pre-order context would mitigate any WS disappointment, though I don't have a clue by how much. After that the only major Apple-specific sentiment points I can see are an iPad media event and of course earnings. (Touchgate isn't likely to be a big deal without some really big hardware vulnerability or Apple actually keeping a nice fingerprint photo on your iPhone even though it says it doesn't.)
Thanks, Steve. The AAPL Tree is now on Apple News (iOS + web-readable and SOON on macOS) at apple.news/TuY-CX_-jRziryK895rDu6g - for a jumble of AAPL fundamentals, tech comment and a bit of AAPL chart nonsense | the ol' blog's at aapltree.wordpress.com | archived blog's on Medium @aapltree | Twitter @aapltree
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