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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 6, 2013 3:05:35 GMT -8
Friday Jobs Report today at 8:30 am will undoubtedly set the tone for the overall market. Not sure if "good news" is good news or it's bad news due to potential Fed action. This market is somewhat schizo so not sure how it will take good or bad news at this point. Estimates are 180k jobs. It's also Friday...maybe the PIN comes into play ...sometimes it does but sometimes it doesn't. The stock is green in PM so we shall see.
Not trying to make a political statement here but I would like to express how saddened I am by the passing, or as South African's characterize it, the "transitioning" of Nelson Mandela. He "earned" his entry to heaven from my perspective. Truly admirable.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 6, 2013 3:47:23 GMT -8
Berenberg note on an Apple TV:
"We have been talking about Apple “owning” the home experience for many years. The TV market has seen a lot of hardware improvement over time: black and white to colour, thick to thin and now the advent of the smart TV, where manufacturers are striving to combine the internet experience with a TV screen. Apple will probably incorporate its iOS platform, TV design capabilities and content management as well as leveraging its brand and ease-of-use know-how to try to change the experience for TV viewers. On the hardware front, we do not see how Apple can be leaps and bounds ahead of the existing exquisite solutions from Samsung et al, but it continues to have the edge in how this hardware can interact with software and services.
Apple has also recently acquired technology that allows gesture-based controlling which could also – combined with SIRI and Apple’s iPad/iPhone as a remote – change the user experience. The issue that Apple will have in our opinion is tying in services and content to the platform that are truly differentiating. Many industry observers talk about the success of tying in iTunes to the iPod. We agree, that was a resounding success. But Apple was able to leverage its iPod hardware advantage with a content industry that was literally down on its knees, getting trounced by Napster, Limewire et al. The film/TV industry is enjoying very fat margins right now and although Netflix is gaining some traction, cable companies have never been in a better position. Hence we think it is going to be extremely difficult for Apple to sign up exclusive or favourable content deals given the industry backdrop.
In terms of market opportunity, global TV volumes shipped annually are around 275m. Smart TVs should account for 15% of this market in 2014-15, ie ~40m units pa. If Apple were to gain 25% share, that would be 10m units. Assuming $2000/unit, that is $20bn in incremental revenues. Samsung makes 5% margins in its TV business and it has 30% share of the overall market. Assuming Apple could achieve a 15% margin (brand/design), then that’s $3bn in incremental operating profit or a 5-7% uplift to 2014/2015 estimates. The key for Apple in our view is to develop a product that has a services element intertwined, If it were able to sign up exclusive deals with content owners then that obviously could lead to a) subscriber based model opportunity and b) better profitability profile characteristics."
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 6, 2013 4:57:14 GMT -8
For the love of Pete! Are we pinning to $565 already?!
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Post by mcharliem on Dec 6, 2013 5:03:48 GMT -8
For the love of Pete! Are we pinning to $565 already?! Not sure if this is a joke or not, but considering options aren't even trading yet and most option market makers don't care about minor moves in premarket, the answer is no.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 6, 2013 5:57:43 GMT -8
For the love of Pete! Are we pinning to $565 already?! Not sure if this is a joke or not, but considering options aren't even trading yet and most option market makers don't care about minor moves in premarket, the answer is no. Was said tongue in cheek but thank you.... In other news - Citi raises PT from $530 to $580 but maintain a neutral rating on stock (Disclaimer: they have hated AAPL forever)
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2013 6:06:25 GMT -8
Berenberg note on an Apple TV: "..." Thanks, Rob. Apart from all the other goodies that Apple can include in its Television, I think if gaming (kinect style with Primesense acquisition) is built-in along with a dedicated App/game store then it'll be huge.
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Post by macwire on Dec 6, 2013 6:20:40 GMT -8
Strong nfp data Me personally I think apples next untapped market is home automation. Smart home. Tv prolly first easy candidate for entry. What about ibeacons for your house that turn on lights in rooms or adjust to your temp. And turn off when you leave.
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2013 6:22:02 GMT -8
In other news - Citi raises PT from $530 to $580 but maintain a neutral rating on stock (Disclaimer: they have hated AAPL forever) When I read this (below) on the flyonthewall site, it was so clear that Citi is simply raising the PT to keep up with AAPL rising while at the same time attempting to spread some FUD. ---- "Apple may have lowered Q1 production forecasts, says Citigroup Citi says that while Apple shares have rallied recently on strength of the iPhone 5S since launch and the forthcoming China Mobile deal, its work indicates that the company may have modestly lowered iPhone production forecasts for Q1 of 2014. Citi attributes the slight downtick in production to greater availability of iPhone 5S and likely inventory build-up of iPhone 5C. The firm believes downward pressure on Apple shares is likely in Q1 and keeps a Neutral rating on the stock. The firm did, however, raise its price target for shares to $580 from $530."
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Post by cbingle on Dec 6, 2013 6:36:31 GMT -8
Gap filled from yesterday, so all systems in check. AAPL should be above $600 prior to Jan earnings release.
This is the most calm I have felt holding AAPL in a year. GLTA
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2013 6:39:13 GMT -8
Seems like the scared are first being shaken off.
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Post by firestorm on Dec 6, 2013 7:57:57 GMT -8
How wonderful: whatever imaginary little gains we had from yesterday are gone with the wind, on a day when the market has risen because of the jobs report.
I sure wish I was on the insider list that got the leaks a week ahead of the crowd.
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Post by podboy on Dec 6, 2013 8:14:05 GMT -8
Even though aapl is down almost a percent I can't be too disappointed with all the good news swirling.
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Post by doublerainbow on Dec 6, 2013 8:16:14 GMT -8
How wonderful: whatever imaginary little gains we had from yesterday are gone with the wind, on a day when the market has risen because of the jobs report. I sure wish I was on the insider list that got the leaks a week ahead of the crowd. would you rather AAPL was down this week when the market was red? recent stability in the movement of the stock sure beats the 3-5% drops (knock on wood) we've all known and love.
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Post by mcharliem on Dec 6, 2013 8:18:45 GMT -8
I think the primary reason the China Mobile news didn't end up moving the stock is it wasn't a very big surprise. Any news that becomes just a question of "when" and not "if" just isn't going to have a lasting impact. The biggest and most lasting news based moves come from legitimate surprises that people weren't expecting, and just judging from this board alone, plenty of people were expecting CM to start selling the iPhone this month.
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 6, 2013 8:22:34 GMT -8
I think the primary reason the China Mobile news didn't end up moving the stock is it wasn't a very big surprise. Any news that becomes just a question of "when" and not "if" just isn't going to have a lasting impact. The biggest and most lasting news based moves come from legitimate surprises that people weren't expecting, and just judging from this board alone, plenty of people were expecting CM to start selling the iPhone this month. How about the fact that we don't have anything announced yet ! There is NO deal in place ... no matter how badly people want to hear about the deal the FACT is that one has yet to be announced by either partner.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 6, 2013 8:34:53 GMT -8
Strong nfp data Me personally I think apples next untapped market is home automation. Smart home. Tv prolly first easy candidate for entry. What about ibeacons for your house that turn on lights in rooms or adjust to your temp. And turn off when you leave. Are you the dude that kept asking Einhorn about home automation during his presentation earlier this year? HOME AUTOMATION FTW!
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Post by twrx on Dec 6, 2013 8:40:32 GMT -8
How about the fact that we don't have anything announced yet ! There is NO deal in place ... no matter how badly people want to hear about the deal the FACT is that one has yet to be announced by either partner. Deal or no deal, the "Apple Barometer" is already up anyway.
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Post by hledgard on Dec 6, 2013 8:44:17 GMT -8
Berenberg note on an Apple TV: "..." Thanks, Rob. Apart from all the other goodies that Apple can include in its Television, I think if gaming (kinect style with Primesense acquisition) is built-in along with a dedicated App/game store then it'll be huge. Indeed, a thoughtful article on Apple TV !
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Post by mcharliem on Dec 6, 2013 9:03:01 GMT -8
I think the primary reason the China Mobile news didn't end up moving the stock is it wasn't a very big surprise. Any news that becomes just a question of "when" and not "if" just isn't going to have a lasting impact. The biggest and most lasting news based moves come from legitimate surprises that people weren't expecting, and just judging from this board alone, plenty of people were expecting CM to start selling the iPhone this month. How about the fact that we don't have anything announced yet ! There is NO deal in place ... no matter how badly people want to hear about the deal the FACT is that one has yet to be announced by either partner. Personally, I'd consider it about 99% likely at this point, with a 1% chance of the deal completely collapsing. For all the people that are saying that nothing is confirmed, what percent chance do they think there is of the deal completely falling through? I'd be curious to know. The size of the move someone expects from a final "confirmation" should be directly proportional to the chance the person believes the deal still has of collapsing.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 6, 2013 9:26:45 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Dec 6, 2013 9:59:35 GMT -8
Barron's:
Cantor Fitzgerald’s Brian White, reiterating a Buy rating on Apple, and a $777 price target, writes that his “Apple Barometer,” a basket of Taiwan suppliers he tracks, are showing year-over-year sales growth in November “the strongest in the Barometer’s history,” up about 19% to 20%, above the 6% rise on average for the last 8 years of the indicator.
Given the combination of a record October performance and our expectation of record growth in November, our Apple Barometer is on track to report stronger-than-average seasonality in 4Q:13. If we assume an average MoM sales decline of 10% in December, we estimate our Apple Barometer will grow sales by 28% QoQ in 4Q:13, or more than double the average increase of 13% over the past eight years [...] In our view, the combination of strong demand for Apple devices this holiday season, combined with the possible ramp ahead of a potential deal with China Mobile (reported in the Wall Street Journal on 12/5), could be responsible for this strong preliminary print.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 6, 2013 10:34:23 GMT -8
How about the fact that we don't have anything announced yet ! There is NO deal in place ... no matter how badly people want to hear about the deal the FACT is that one has yet to be announced by either partner. Personally, I'd consider it about 99% likely at this point, with a 1% chance of the deal completely collapsing. For all the people that are saying that nothing is confirmed, what percent chance do they think there is of the deal completely falling through? I'd be curious to know. The size of the move someone expects from a final "confirmation" should be directly proportional to the chance the person believes the deal still has of collapsing. One good sign is that we've heard nothing about "talks breaking down". I believe either side (CM or Apple) would have leaked news of no deal if there wasn't one.
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2013 10:37:05 GMT -8
Heading for a flat week?
Hopefully, next week should be fun (going up) with more leaks on the CM deal popping up.
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Mav
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[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2013 11:08:52 GMT -8
Apple Pundit Syndrome - well, Gruber has it, so doesn't surprise me that Ben Thompson does too. Very common affliction.
If China Mobile's not priced into the stock already. That's oversimplifying.
I wonder if he knows there's an WSJ article saying much the same thing.
Funny, perception/sentiment only matters until it doesn't, then it's all about growth? Sure, I'd love to see the day when AMZN gets judged on earnings growth.
Stick to one's knitting or be up-front about your expertise level in that realm of commentary, I say. It's funny how few have done the simple math of 15%-20% core iOS growth with stable margins and ASP and tried to connect some dots.
And it may not stop at 15-20%. Sure business physics, but last year was a _slow_ year for Apple...
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Post by macwire on Dec 6, 2013 11:56:29 GMT -8
Oh fuck you aapl. Lol
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Post by terps530 on Dec 6, 2013 12:18:17 GMT -8
they gotta remind everyone who jumped in on the weekly 575+ options when the news came out that you can't win that easily.
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Post by macwire on Dec 6, 2013 12:29:36 GMT -8
I hate this gravestone doji for aapl weekly chart.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2013 12:30:31 GMT -8
Inverted hammer maybe, but not the doji.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2013 12:32:48 GMT -8
Lol - this is some nonsense price action right here!
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Post by macwire on Dec 6, 2013 12:43:47 GMT -8
Inverted hammer maybe, but not the doji. Thought we were flat for the week my bad. Charting while out and about
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