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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 30, 2013 7:57:47 GMT -8
Hey Rutgers Guy - Happy New Year! Neighbor's name is Chris and hopefully he will get some shot to play next year as QB but we shall see. Here is the enigma - they say that iPhones are the luxury phones and hence the cost - so if you have enough money to buy an Audi luxury brand, isn't your customer at Audi the same person who is holding an iPhone? Perhaps I am thinking about this too simplistically. My bad, Phoebes. Of course, it is Chris; there is another player, Mike Bimonte, who is in the mix for next year, and with both last names being of Italian descent, perhaps my brain subconsciously mixed them up as it went to the keyboard.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 30, 2013 8:11:01 GMT -8
Now AAPL is back to where it was when it looked like CM wasn't happening. Does this stock make sense to anyone? It's like the yin to AMZN/TWTR/nameyourmomentumstock's yang. Solid fundamentals, no sentiment.
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Post by zzmac on Dec 30, 2013 8:13:31 GMT -8
So you guys make your decision on your $60,000 or $80,000 vehicle on whether it integrates completely with your $600 iPhone? Not me. That criteria barely makes the list. I'm usually too busy enjoying the driving experience to care much about the phone integration. My infotainment unit is under the hood (Roush 409).
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Post by Lstream on Dec 30, 2013 8:17:51 GMT -8
It's the stock market. I doubt it's Audi-related. I wrote Audi inquiring how its decision impacts my ability to use an iPhone. Me too, even though I expect iPhone owners to be OK. Text below.
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Post by cbingle on Dec 30, 2013 8:28:59 GMT -8
Added a couple hundred shares this morning for the ER run. Should see a 10% up move.
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Post by dmiller on Dec 30, 2013 8:52:59 GMT -8
I think some of this may be due to the curiously timed NPD report containing the numbers about Chromebooks (in the "commercial" channel) that make no sense. Sort of like the phantom "Android tablet" worldwide share numbers from weeks earlier that also made no sense.
End of year, low volume, just the FUD to knock things down the last couple of days, as based on these numbers, Chromebooks are poised to take over the laptop market. Android! (*sarcasm)
Of course, the "commercial" channel, even if these numbers are taken at face value, excludes our primary market, which is the -consumer- channel. It should also exclude all Apple in-store and online sales, and likely other distribution/sales that are consumer vs. commercial.
It's not difficult to design a survey, or a channel report, to show whatever you'd like it to show, based on cherry-picked criteria and exclusions.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 30, 2013 9:07:02 GMT -8
Hey apple doc - where are your charts suggesting we are headed price-wise here? Still think ~600 before a big retrace. But if that's already started, back to looking at the 520s as an initial target.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 9:08:57 GMT -8
It's the stock market. I doubt it's Audi-related. I wrote Audi inquiring how its decision impacts my ability to use an iPhone. Me too, even though I expect iPhone owners to be OK. Text below. The Audi website gave no indication the email was sent or otherwise acknowledged. A safari issue? Perhaps Audi's servers crashed under the weight of negative feedback? I'm not currently an Audi owner, but I am concerned since Audi is part of the vast VW universe, including Porsche.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 30, 2013 9:31:24 GMT -8
Me too, even though I expect iPhone owners to be OK. Text below. The Audi website gave no indication the email was sent or otherwise acknowledged. A safari issue? Perhaps Audi's servers crashed under the weight of negative feedback? I'm not currently an Audi owner, but I am concerned since Audi is part of the vast VW universe, including Porsche. I used the following e-mail address. This won't be anyone with answers, but hopefully they get the message to the right place. audicare@audi.com
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Post by lulli on Dec 30, 2013 10:05:07 GMT -8
To understand what is going on...: It is likely that several people had losses during the year, bought on the way up and made some gains. It would now make sense for those people to sell for tax reasons, having the gains and losses (partially) compensate each other in 2013. Many people in that situation would lead to downwards pressure today and tomorrow.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 10:19:37 GMT -8
To understand what is going on...: It is likely that several people had losses during the year, bought on the way up and made some gains. It would now make sense for those people to sell for tax reasons, having the gains and losses (partially) compensate each other in 2013. Many people in that situation would lead to downwards pressure today and tomorrow. I would have expected "tax" selling to have been over week before Christmas, due to the 30 day rule. This would allow sellers to get back in before JAN earnings.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 30, 2013 10:43:26 GMT -8
CNBC app was blazing "Apple rejects Icahn's plan" stories all morning. And there was a bump after Icahn first got involved.
AFB thinks the guy an officious loon, but WS might not agree...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 30, 2013 10:52:07 GMT -8
This selling is being caused by end of year FUD-selling.
Let's hope 2014 is full of CCC: Courage, Certainty, and Confidence.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 11:13:20 GMT -8
To understand what is going on...: It is likely that several people had losses during the year, bought on the way up and made some gains. It would now make sense for those people to sell for tax reasons, having the gains and losses (partially) compensate each other in 2013. Many people in that situation would lead to downwards pressure today and tomorrow. In Canada we have to sell a few days before the New Year as all trades have to have been settled to declare losses or gains for that tax year...so the final day to sell would be right around Christmas. At least that's how it works up here.
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Post by macwire on Dec 30, 2013 11:17:37 GMT -8
Blah blah blah blah the sentiment sucks on this stock period. Why trade it until it changes? If you're long common who cares. If you're long options - why? There's a million better trading stocks. Separate out your love of the company, and your love of how the stock used to perform. It's not the same and will never be the same.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 30, 2013 11:24:04 GMT -8
If Aapl keeps trading like this I won't have to worry which Audi to buy .... I'll be happy driving my old Toyota . I don't think that the Audi news is moving the stock anyway .... A new low for this board. Car talk while AAPL craps its pants. Let's hope it has the opposite effect...
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Post by sponge on Dec 30, 2013 11:48:17 GMT -8
We will sing a different tune in Feb, March and April.
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 30, 2013 11:56:22 GMT -8
At least my dumpster dive into JCP is working !
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Post by Lstream on Dec 30, 2013 12:02:44 GMT -8
Blah blah blah blah the sentiment sucks on this stock period. Why trade it until it changes? If you're long common who cares. If you're long options - why? There's a million better trading stocks. Separate out your love of the company, and your love of how the stock used to perform. It's not the same and will never be the same. Do you own Apple, trade it, or are you just here to spread a never ending message of happiness and hope?
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Post by macwire on Dec 30, 2013 12:24:32 GMT -8
Blah blah blah blah the sentiment sucks on this stock period. Why trade it until it changes? If you're long common who cares. If you're long options - why? There's a million better trading stocks. Separate out your love of the company, and your love of how the stock used to perform. It's not the same and will never be the same. Do you own Apple, trade it, or are you just here to spread a never ending message of happiness and hope? All 3
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Post by Lstream on Dec 30, 2013 12:30:34 GMT -8
Do you own Apple, trade it, or are you just here to spread a never ending message of happiness and hope? All 3 You have a ways to go on the happiness and hope part .
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 30, 2013 12:32:31 GMT -8
As an aapl long, i actually welcome hearing the negative viewpoint here. Keeps me from feeling too comfortable and groupthinky
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Post by cbingle on Dec 30, 2013 12:42:30 GMT -8
Wedge partners reporting China Mobile incremental share to only add 100,000 IPhones a month in Q1. Say what? And the stock drops?
It amazes me that complete nonsense reporting is taken as fact, without the use of one's own brain.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 30, 2013 13:40:16 GMT -8
CNBC app was blazing "Apple rejects Icahn's plan" stories all morning. And there was a bump after Icahn first got involved. AFB thinks the guy an officious loon, but WS might not agree... And you don't know if Carl is slowly selling his shares, after realizing close to a $100 per share gain. Not sure Carl would walk away quietly, since I think he is one of these guys who would rather engage in the fight; but selling half of his stash to take some off, and then engaging in the fight might, might be a nice approach. By the way, JD, there are some good looking ladies at MIT, at least when I attended in the late 70's. It's just that there are fewer of them, and they wear more clothes, than at a party school. But many of the MIT frats would have parties in conjunction with some of the local "all-girl" schools (Wellesley, Simmons, Katie Gibbs, etc.), rather then with MIT stock, since MIT couldn't provide the depth.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 14:23:18 GMT -8
As an aapl long, i actually welcome hearing the negative viewpoint here. Keeps me from feeling too comfortable and groupthinky Consensus Revenue for FQ2 is $45 Billion. If Apple reports at the high end of FQ1 Guidance (as seems to be their practice), WS consensus would represent a 22% QoQ drop in revenue. Apple's average FQ1 to FQ2 drop for the period FY2005 to FY2013 is -11.80%. Apple has experienced a FQ1 to FQ2 drop approaching 22% only once in the last 4 years. That was FY2013 (20%). I'm modeling $53 Billion for FQ2/2014. There is always the possibility of missing by a great deal, but should Apple report $45 Billion for FQ2 I will have missed by 17%. My model hasn't missed by more than 3.97% since adopting Apple's new Guidance metric, and in each case that my model missed, it underestimated Apple's results. I feel strongly that Apple will Guide FQ2 Revenue as follows: $50 Billion to $53 Billion. Exceeding WS Guidance to that degree should dramatically improve Investor Sentiment throughout the March quarter. As a side note, my model does not include Docomo or China Mobile impact. There is no history for either. Any number applied to those carriers (outside of knowledge of their respective carrier agreements with Apple) is pure, baseless speculation. That said, should Apple Guide to my expectations, but include Docomo and China Mobile, Apple's Guidance would still beat WS consensus by 20%. Apple's March quarter is looking very good no matter how you slice it.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 14:33:50 GMT -8
AAPL led the Buying on Weakness List today, for both Institutional and Retail Buyers.
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Post by sponge on Dec 30, 2013 15:05:59 GMT -8
Good updates Gregg
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 15:10:33 GMT -8
As an aapl long, i actually welcome hearing the negative viewpoint here. Keeps me from feeling too comfortable and groupthinky Consensus Revenue for FQ2 is $45 Billion. If Apple reports at the high end of FQ1 Guidance (as seems to be their practice), WS consensus would represent a 22% QoQ drop in revenue. Apple's average FQ1 to FQ2 drop for the period FY2005 to FY2013 is -11.80%. Apple has experienced a FQ1 to FQ2 drop approaching 22% only once in the last 4 years. That was FY2013 (20%). I'm modeling $53 Billion for FQ2/2014. There is always the possibility of missing by a great deal, but should Apple report $45 Billion for FQ2 I will have missed by 17%. My model hasn't missed by more than 3.97% since adopting Apple's new Guidance metric, and in each case that my model missed, it underestimated Apple's results. I feel strongly that Apple will Guide FQ2 Revenue as follows: $50 Billion to $53 Billion. Exceeding WS Guidance to that degree should dramatically improve Investor Sentiment throughout the March quarter. As a side note, my model does not include Docomo or China Mobile impact. There is no history for either. Any number applied to those carriers (outside of knowledge of their respective carrier agreements with Apple) is pure, baseless speculation. That said, should Apple Guide to my expectations, but include Docomo and China Mobile, Apple's Guidance would still beat WS consensus by 20%. Apple's March quarter is looking very good no matter how you slice it. The December quarter result includes Docomo, why wouldn't the Q2 comparison?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 30, 2013 15:23:29 GMT -8
Gregg, the world is on YOY. And it's all related anyway. Significant YOY slowdown = bad QOQ compare too. No, I'm not ignoring Tim Cook's QOQ song and dance for the Q1 2013 CC - that really irritated me. It also didn't play well with WS, which thinks in YOY terms.
I am not at all prepared to make the call that Apple _starts_ guidance at $50B. They used the fog of forecasting uncertainty to very good effect this past quarter after all.
Apple telling the Street that just about 15% YOY rev growth is the minimum of what they should expect? Is this the same Oppenheimer we know? I'm filing that under "dream scenario" without intervening news and data.
I'm not sure how Apple guides $50B to start _without_ DoCoMo and China Mobile. And DoCoMo will be incorporated into management guidance for certain. China Mobile...who knows, really. My best guess is Oppenheimer lowballs a number unless data points force his hand. If that happens, a few of us may be dancing on tables and/or streets.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 30, 2013 16:07:43 GMT -8
Good points Mav.
Docomo is in the mix this quarter and hereafter. I can't see Oppy doing anything but being very cautious on CM, absent massive announced early sales...even then. Better to be pleasently surprised in April
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