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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 16:11:24 GMT -8
The December quarter result includes Docomo, why wouldn't the Q2 comparison? I may not have explained my thinking well. Let me elaborate. Apple will include Docomo and China Mobile in its FQ2 Guidance. I didn't because I have nothing but a SWAG for either. I'd rather, for the purposes of a Guidance estimate be very conservative. At the same time if Apple Guides no more than my (sans Docomo/CM) estimate, that would be much higher than WS's consensus. Guiding so much higher than consensus would be a very good thing. Think about it. Apple did not Guide WS's DEC quarter consensus, and trading this quarter (while good) was not what it could have been, had Apple Guided just $4 Billion more.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 16:23:16 GMT -8
My best guess is Oppenheimer lowballs a number unless data points force his hand. A "lowball" would be Apple discounting its expectations 20% (as was its practice prior to FQ3/2012). Its been 7 quarters since Apple has done that. I'm expecting Apple to Guide (lower of range) 6% back of its internal expectations. Historical 3 year average growth rate for FQ2 has Apple Revenue growing to $53 Billion. Six percent back of that number is $50 Billion. Historical rates do not include Docomo and/or China Mobile. So if Apple Guides my $50 Billion (bottom of range) and necessarily includes Docomo and China Mobile, this would remain a very good thing (in comparison to WS consensus).
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 16:28:33 GMT -8
Good points Mav. Docomo is in the mix this quarter and hereafter. I can't see Oppy doing anything but being very cautious on CM, absent massive announced early sales...even then. Better to be pleasently surprised in April I am not saying Apple will not include Docomo or China Mobile revenue in FQ2 Guidance. I'm saying that if Apple guides my estimate (which does not include Docomo or China Mobile), this would STILL be much, much better than WS's $45 Billion consensus, and that Investor Sentiment, based on Apple's apparent bullish Guidance, will go up dramatically.
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Post by lucy on Dec 30, 2013 16:37:55 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 16:40:13 GMT -8
Apple telling the Street that just about 15% YOY rev growth is the minimum of what they should expect? In the last 5 years Apple has guided FQ2 YoY growth over 40% FOUR times. Lowering the bar to 15% YoY, Apple has guided above that SEVEN times since FY2005 (the fifth year was 13%). Absolutely. Its all right there in your spreadsheets of past performance.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 17:02:47 GMT -8
Apple telling the Street that just about 15% YOY rev growth is the minimum of what they should expect? In the last 5 years Apple has guided FQ2 YoY growth over 40% FOUR times. Lowering the bar to 15% YoY, Apple has guided above that SEVEN times since FY2005 (the fifth year was 13%). Absolutely. Its all right there in your spreadsheets of past performance. True, but the past doesn't really matter...there's no way Apple gets 40% revenue growth again. It's just too much to sell
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Post by macwire on Dec 30, 2013 17:20:56 GMT -8
In the last 5 years Apple has guided FQ2 YoY growth over 40% FOUR times. Lowering the bar to 15% YoY, Apple has guided above that SEVEN times since FY2005 (the fifth year was 13%). Absolutely. Its all right there in your spreadsheets of past performance. True, but the past doesn't really matter...there's no way Apple gets 40% revenue growth again. It's just too much to sell Bingo. Impossible to expect aapl to be what it was as an investment. Period. Everyone can gamble that aapl will find some jaw dropping new category. Maybe there will be. But a gamble is not an investing plan.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 17:28:17 GMT -8
Thanks for bringing this report to my attention Lucy. I find this analysis hard to swallow: By all accounts China Mobile has about the same number of 3G subscribers as Telecom and Unicom combined. Included in that amount is somewhere around 30 Million jail broke iPhone users. If Telecom and Unicom are selling 8.1 Million iPhones per quarter, I would expect China Mobile to add 50% of that, at minimum, to total China sales. Especially when you add initial China Mobile channel fill (1.5 Million units?) to first quarter sales. Ignoring channel fill, to estimate net 300K sales per quarter requires a near 100% cannibalization of Telecom and Unicom sales by China Mobile. Nowhere on this planet have we seen that, nor will we.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 30, 2013 17:36:37 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 17:38:07 GMT -8
In the last 5 years Apple has guided FQ2 YoY growth over 40% FOUR times. Lowering the bar to 15% YoY, Apple has guided above that SEVEN times since FY2005 (the fifth year was 13%). Absolutely. Its all right there in your spreadsheets of past performance. True, but the past doesn't really matter...there's no way Apple gets 40% revenue growth again. It's just too much to sell I'm struggling over whether I should respond to this statement. Its painfully obvious you don't know what you are talking about, but I'll give you a chance to prove me wrong. What unit sales numbers do you base that statement on for FQ3/2014, FQ4, FQ1/2015, FQ2, etc, and on what do you base them?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 17:38:21 GMT -8
True, but the past doesn't really matter...there's no way Apple gets 40% revenue growth again. It's just too much to sell Bingo. Impossible to expect aapl to be what it was as an investment. Period. Everyone can gamble that aapl will find some jaw dropping new category. Maybe there will be. But a gamble is not an investing plan. Agreed, but 15-20% EPS growth, not revenue growth, would still make AAPL a great investment. If EPS growth doesn't start back up this quarter, I'll be gone the day after earnings
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 17:44:36 GMT -8
True, but the past doesn't really matter...there's no way Apple gets 40% revenue growth again. It's just too much to sell I'm struggling over whether I should respond to this statement. Its painfully obvious you don't know what you are talking about, but I'll give you a chance to prove me wrong. What unit sales numbers do you base that statement on for FQ3/2014, FQ4, FQ1/2015, FQ2, etc, and on what do you base them? For example, say Apple has 60B in revenue this quarter...I don't think there's any way Apple could post near 90B in Q1 2015. The only way I think they'll see 40% revenue again is if the move iPhone launch to another quarter! which wouldn't really count. Do you see a way for Apple to get another 40 or 50% growth in revenue in a single year?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 18:32:59 GMT -8
For example, say Apple has 60B in revenue this quarter...I don't think there's any way Apple could post near 90B in Q1 2015. Do you see a way for Apple to get another 40 or 50% growth in revenue in a single year? Absolutely. * Taking TC for his word there will be new product(s) this year. * Revenue growth generated by the addition of China Mobile. * Rebound of European iPhone sales caused by greatly improved 5S/C 4G LTE network compatibility. * An increase in US annual GDP from 2.9% (C2013) to estimated 3.6% in C2014. * YoY China GDP growth of 7%. * Decline of Samsung as a premium handset competitor (already happening before addition of Docomo and China Mobile as authorized iPhone carriers). I'm modeling FQ1/2015 revenue growth of 42.3%.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 18:40:41 GMT -8
For example, say Apple has 60B in revenue this quarter...I don't think there's any way Apple could post near 90B in Q1 2015. Do you see a way for Apple to get another 40 or 50% growth in revenue in a single year? Absolutely. * Taking TC for his word there will be new product(s) this year. * Revenue growth generated by the addition of China Mobile. * Rebound of European iPhone sales caused by greatly improved 5S/C 4G LTE network compatibility. * An increase in US annual GDP from 2.9% (C2013) to estimated 3.6% in C2014. * YoY China GDP growth of 7%. * Decline of Samsung as a premium handset competitor (already happening before addition of Docomo and China Mobile as authorized iPhone carriers). I'm modeling FQ1/2015 revenue growth of 42.3%. How can you model for growth counting on a product that we have no idea about and doesn't seem close to being announced?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 18:50:33 GMT -8
Absolutely. * Taking TC for his word there will be new product(s) this year. * Revenue growth generated by the addition of China Mobile. * Rebound of European iPhone sales caused by greatly improved 5S/C 4G LTE network compatibility. * An increase in US annual GDP from 2.9% (C2013) to estimated 3.6% in C2014. * YoY China GDP growth of 7%. * Decline of Samsung as a premium handset competitor (already happening before addition of Docomo and China Mobile as authorized iPhone carriers). I'm modeling FQ1/2015 revenue growth of 42.3%. How can you model for growth counting on a product that we have no idea about and doesn't seem close to being announced? You asked if I could see a way that Apple grew FQ1/2015 revenue 40% to 50% over FQ1/2014. I gave you the factors that I believe could accomplish that. The growth I'm modeling for FQ1/2015 does not include any of the factors I listed. What do you see that will prevent that kind of growth (Please provide resultant numbers)?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 18:51:14 GMT -8
I'm struggling over whether I should respond to this statement. Its painfully obvious you don't know what you are talking about, but I'll give you a chance to prove me wrong. What unit sales numbers do you base that statement on for FQ3/2014, FQ4, FQ1/2015, FQ2, etc, and on what do you base them? For example, say Apple has 60B in revenue this quarter...I don't think there's any way Apple could post near 90B in Q1 2015. The only way I think they'll see 40% revenue again is if the move iPhone launch to another quarter! which wouldn't really count. Do you see a way for Apple to get another 40 or 50% growth in revenue in a single year? Taken purely as a hypothetical challenge, and in no way meant as a prediction: Additional revenue in Q12015 6,000,000 Apple HDTVs at $1,500 per unit = $9 billion 10,000,000 iWatches at $400 per unit = $4 billion 10,000,000 additional iPhones at $600 per unit = $6 billion 6,000,000 additional iPads at $450 per unit = $2.7 billion iTunes & accessories segments growth = $1.3 billion Increased royalties from patent settlements = $0.5 billion That's $23.5 billion in additional or round about a 40% year on year increase, with nothing too fantastically outrageous included. (Admittedly this is more likely to be a Q12016 result.) Personally I would be happy staying invested in AAPL even if YoY growth remained close to 10%.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 19:00:53 GMT -8
For example, say Apple has 60B in revenue this quarter...I don't think there's any way Apple could post near 90B in Q1 2015. The only way I think they'll see 40% revenue again is if the move iPhone launch to another quarter! which wouldn't really count. Do you see a way for Apple to get another 40 or 50% growth in revenue in a single year? Taken purely as a hypothetical challenge, and in no way meant as a prediction: Additional revenue in Q12015 6,000,000 Apple HDTVs at $1,500 per unit = $9 billion 10,000,000 iWatches at $400 per unit = $4 billion 10,000,000 additional iPhones at $600 per unit = $6 billion 6,000,000 additional iPads at $450 per unit = $2.7 billion iTunes & accessories segments growth = $1.3 billion Increased royalties from patent settlements = $0.5 billion That's $23.5 billion in additional or round about a 40% year on year increase, with nothing too fantastically outrageous included. (Admittedly this is more likely to be a Q12016 result.) Actually, I see the above resulting from just adding China Mobile to the mix. Adding the above, (except the TV), to organic growth easily surpasses 40% YoY revenue growth. I see these as FQ1/2015 (again excepting the TV) increments.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 19:01:00 GMT -8
How can you model for growth counting on a product that we have no idea about and doesn't seem close to being announced? You asked if I could see a way that Apple grew FQ1/2015 revenue 40% to 50% over FQ1/2014. I gave you the factors that I believe could accomplish that. The growth I'm modeling for FQ1/2015 does not include any of the factors I listed. What do you see that will prevent that kind of growth (Please provide resultant numbers)? What? The almost 90M in revenue you're modeling for Q1 2015 doesn't take into account any of the factors you listed? So what does it include? The Sponge getting a 30B raise?? Well the last year showed an increase based on 57B of around 10%...I think that's a pretty good idea with most of that coming from China Mobile. I see ASP of both iPhone and iPad trending down slightly, not up, but selling a few more units to make up for the lower ASP. I see revenue in the low to mid 60's next year. I'm not modeling any new categories, obviously because nothing seems imminent and we have no idea what it is anyways
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Post by mrentropy on Dec 30, 2013 19:18:45 GMT -8
Ditto. As much as I love my S5 and have drooled over the RS7, if iOS is not an Audi option I too will look elsewhere. Too bad. So sad. Another S5 driver. Just sold an S4 and moved to an S5. And yes, the car seat fits. Just barely....
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Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2013 20:24:06 GMT -8
You asked if I could see a way that Apple grew FQ1/2015 revenue 40% to 50% over FQ1/2014. I gave you the factors that I believe could accomplish that. The growth I'm modeling for FQ1/2015 does not include any of the factors I listed. What do you see that will prevent that kind of growth (Please provide resultant numbers)? What? The almost 90M in revenue you're modeling for Q1 2015 doesn't take into account any of the factors you listed? So what does it include? The Sponge getting a 30B raise?? Well the last year showed an increase based on 57B of around 10%...I think that's a pretty good idea with most of that coming from China Mobile. I see ASP of both iPhone and iPad trending down slightly, not up, but selling a few more units to make up for the lower ASP. I see revenue in the low to mid 60's next year. I'm not modeling any new categories, obviously because nothing seems imminent and we have no idea what it is anyways (Please provide resultant numbers)?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 30, 2013 20:30:43 GMT -8
Waiting on them to screw up big time again so I can start calling them Wedgie Partners or something. ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 30, 2013 20:45:08 GMT -8
Now AAPL is back to where it was when it looked like CM wasn't happening. Does this stock make sense to anyone? It's like the yin to AMZN/TWTR/nameyourmomentumstock's yang. Solid fundamentals, no sentiment. Well, the year-long crash didn't make sense to me, but this... This (for the moment) is hardly anything over which to rant and rave. Now, I would have been seriously pissed if ONLY AAPL went down today while other high beta tech went up another 10. Not today. Red across the board. And while it sucks to lose the daily SMA-20, I'm going to save my kicking and screaming for sub-SMA-50.
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