Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2014 1:00:58 GMT -8
The subsidy bit is highly important though, so it's good early info if it pans out as being mostly accurate. Yeah, seems there's stuff missing from the Foxconn data. It's just one data point, and Pegatron _must_ be making iPhone 5S/5Cs as part of Apple's multi-source strategy right? Well, at least there's no "5C a flop in China"...for the next few hours.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2014 1:02:56 GMT -8
That call wall may (almost certainly will?) hold AAPL back this week.
This week.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 15, 2014 1:05:10 GMT -8
AAPL up $8 in PM, definitely will be a test of call walls. But I am confident in that 25K delta.
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deagol
New Poster
Amateur Apple analyst since 2001
Posts: 5
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Post by deagol on Jan 15, 2014 1:07:37 GMT -8
3 months ago he was predicting $16.85 for this quarter...I wonder why the big change? Not that I think we'll be close to $16.85, I'd be more than happy with $14.92. Probably expecting China Mobile last quarter? Was modeling 62m iPhones for Q1 back then (now 56m). I "half expected" CM launch by mid-late Dec, a couple million units off there. The other culprit was, I expected two strong weeks before Christmas, and I only saw one. 3-4m impact there. And 1492 is America's birthday! (ok not really but you know what I mean).
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deagol
New Poster
Amateur Apple analyst since 2001
Posts: 5
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Post by deagol on Jan 15, 2014 2:15:44 GMT -8
Deagol has been consistently high for the last 6 quarters. So, take that with a grain of salt. My guess is he is still high. I won't excuse myself with the fact that Apple missed twice (one badly) and merely met or barely beat another 3 times the always overly-cautious WS analysts expectations (a practical miss in my book), that's 5 out of those 6 quarters. I accept my responsibility for being high, especially in EPS, and it's been frustrating for me and, as I'm sure is the case, for many others. Having said that, last time I overshot revenue by 1.5%, the one before by 2.4%, by 1.2% in April and in October 2012 I got lucky and nailed it just 0.3% above actual revenue. A couple of my EPS estimates have been within 5% which is the accuracy I expect to achieve with strong confidence, and the others were way off, so that's no good. After all I'm just an amateur (i.e. I do it for love not for the tons of money that I don't get paid for doing it). Thanks for keeping an eye out for my work. Hope I do better this time around, and in the future.
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Post by rickag on Jan 15, 2014 4:28:13 GMT -8
Deagol has been consistently high for the last 6 quarters. So, take that with a grain of salt. My guess is he is still high. I won't excuse myself with the fact that Apple missed twice (one badly) and merely met or barely beat another 3 times the always overly-cautious WS analysts expectations (a practical miss in my book), that's 5 out of those 6 quarters. I accept my responsibility for being high, especially in EPS, and it's been frustrating for me and, as I'm sure is the case, for many others. Having said that, last time I overshot revenue by 1.5%, the one before by 2.4%, by 1.2% in April and in October 2012 I got lucky and nailed it just 0.3% above actual revenue. A couple of my EPS estimates have been within 5% which is the accuracy I expect to achieve with strong confidence, and the others were way off, so that's no good. After all I'm just an amateur (i.e. I do it for love not for the tons of money that I don't get paid for doing it). Thanks for keeping an eye out for my work. Hope I do better this time around, and in the future. Thanks for the post.
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