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Post by appledoc on Jan 28, 2014 2:25:08 GMT -8
Oh well. Will probably take a few months to shake this off. If you need a good laugh this morning, be sure to check out PED's final estimate spreadsheet. Have to wonder what his motivation is behind continuing to allow independents in.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 28, 2014 3:54:22 GMT -8
Price Targets - not ratings for the vast majority - have been cut down to a low of $500 (Credit Suisse) to a high of $625 (Jefferies) - and everywhere in between. For the most part, even analysts that still like the company and are maintaining their overweight rating are getting impatient (as are their clients) with the lack of new product announcements. TC's little teasers and smiles aren't helpful. The media has gotten everything all botched up this morning as they provide the numbers with respect to what was reported versus Company guidance versus Street expectations....making it (naturally) sound like a big miss when indeed it was not - it's ridiculous. In the end the question of innovation continues to linger not just for continued faith in the company's future but to demonstrate growth. No one, but no one, knows how the hell to value the company and debates ensue on that topic. But the stock has been harshly punished more than any stock out there -- Bezos provides nothing and has some insane multiple on his company's stock and WS eats it up. TC's gentile-ness and flowery verbiage is seen more as weakness than anything else particularly because they haven't seen anything new (as in category) or something disruptive from the company in a while (certainly since SJ's passing). TC claims there is no lack of new ideas and innovation but doesn't put anything forth hence immense frustration for the faithful. Now he'll have to contend with the circus that is Icahn and other similar crap. It's a shame that he finds himself in this position but that's where he put himself. I have been neither a fan nor foe of TC but enough time has passed for me to make a judgment on how he is performing as a CEO and I'd give him a grade of C+/B- at best right now. Clearly subjective and just my opinion - so please don't bother to debate me. He has a duty as a CEO to deliver to investors. Those people who say that it isn't a CEO's duty to pay attention to stock price are reading too many business books and are not or haven't been in the real business world. I've been there - THAT is how it works whether you agree or not. Anyway - this is SO overdone here --- we'll see how it all settles. I feel like I have a hangover but I haven't even sipped a drink. Good luck to all today - will be a shitty day but it is what it is.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 28, 2014 4:36:24 GMT -8
Oh well. Will probably take a few months to shake this off. If you need a good laugh this morning, be sure to check out PED's final estimate spreadsheet. Have to wonder what his motivation is behind continuing to allow independents in. The even bigger question for me is the perverse desire of the independents to put their names up in lights with these estimates. A group of people whose only hope of being right is pure fluke, as they cannot possibly have any valid data to offer anything of real value compared to Apple guidance. The whole idea of an independent "analyst" is a joke and past its stale date. I get this practice for the home game, but for public consumption? I wish these independents would stop as they are now an embarrassment to themselves and to the company they follow.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 28, 2014 4:43:53 GMT -8
Oh well. Will probably take a few months to shake this off. If you need a good laugh this morning, be sure to check out PED's final estimate spreadsheet. Have to wonder what his motivation is behind continuing to allow independents in. The even bigger question for me is the perverse desire of the independents to put their names up in lights with these estimates. A group of people whose only hope of being right is pure fluke, as they cannot possibly have any valid data to offer anything of real value compared to Apple guidance. The whole idea of an independent "analyst" is a joke and past its stale date. I get this practice for the home game, but for public consumption? I wish these independents would stop as they are now an embarrassment to themselves and to the company they follow. +1 AMEN
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 28, 2014 4:55:44 GMT -8
CNBC is waltzing out Sculley to comment and break down AAPL's latest quarter, product innovation, outlook, and Steve Jobs. It will be some time during Squawk on the Street - (9:00 -12:00) - my guess is they wait till later in the program to get everyone to watch all morning. Some of you think Sculley is out of touch - others think he is a buffoon - while others think he knows the company pretty well. Take your pick. I'm just providing a heads up if you care.
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Post by mcharliem on Jan 28, 2014 4:59:32 GMT -8
Those people who say that it isn't a CEO's duty to pay attention to stock price are reading too many business books and are not or haven't been in the real business world. I've been there - THAT is how it works whether you agree or not. I think you're referring to me, although I actually don't recall ever reading any "business books". My opinion on Tim Cook was just that, an opinion, but it's based on my years as a trader as well as my experience investing. I have to ask though, where does your aversion to books come from? We've had disagreements on options theory in the past, and you've cited "Internet blogs" as your sources, but never referred to any options books that you've read. When I first started as an options trader, they gave us a reading list of no less than a dozen textbooks that covered all aspects of options theory and options trading. And yet, they didn't point us to a single "Internet blog". Now you certainly seem like an intelligent person who has spent significant time studying your own options plays, but I can assure you, you have critical gaps in your option theories that could easily be filled with the type of formal knowledge that comes from books. I'm not sure why you feel the need to disparage those who get knowledge from books, but I would strongly recommend you reevaluate that stance.
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Post by greedynoob on Jan 28, 2014 5:16:21 GMT -8
The even bigger question for me is the perverse desire of the independents to put their names up in lights with these estimates. A group of people whose only hope of being right is pure fluke, as they cannot possibly have any valid data to offer anything of real value compared to Apple guidance. The whole idea of an independent "analyst" is a joke and past its stale date. I get this practice for the home game, but for public consumption? I wish these independents would stop as they are now an embarrassment to themselves and to the company they follow. +1 AMEN It's tempting to say that we all need to listen to Springsteen's "Glory Days" today, and then forget about the indies once and for all. But that's wrong. What today taught us is that absolutely ridiculous predictions of a big beat influenced what investors expected. And really, that expectation was completely absurd. Not only did Apple switch to trying to give realistic guidance, but the last time they were exceeding guidance, they made a mid-quarter announcement of an adjustment. After that, anybody who thought they were going to be way over this quarter AND that they just randomly decided not to announce an adjustment--well, sorry, but that was just being ***STUPID*** about it. But, as I said, there were obviously those expectations--whether influenced by indies or pros or PED or wherever--and they had a huge effect. And the thing is, the overall investing community tends to learn slowly. So, frankly, I'll be looking out for a potential repeat next quarter. That is, if consensus is positive and there's a lot of chatter about Apple's numbers coming in substantially above guidance and there's a price run up between now and then, then watch out for a big post-earnings drop-off. Remember, Apple has established a new reporting regime, and management is consistent, if it turns out that this quarter is going to be bigger than predicted, they WILL make an announcement mid-quarter. For anyone actively trading, surprises are a profit opportunity. It's easy to miss the good old days when the pros were wrong, the indies were right, and the surprises were to the upside. But Apple being right, the pros being OKish, the indies being wrong, and surprises to the downside are also huge profit opportunities. Questions about where growth comes from, and how much there can be, and how you value a hugely-profitable but non-growing business are perfectly legitimate. My personal opinion is that Apple right now is not a good choice for a buy-and-hold stock--that the only profit opportunity now is active trading. They may come out with new product categories that drive the price up, but action that won't even start until 2015, and will not be as fast as the prior growth.
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Post by macwire on Jan 28, 2014 5:19:34 GMT -8
That is correct Pheobe.
SJ could uniquely ignore shareholders. He didn't legitimately care and of course he could bend reality around him
There is no one else in this world that can
This is a one year plus malaise. This is not just short term traders anymore. This is an intermediate trend that is stretching to a longer time frame
Ask msft shareholders that held the bag how that period felt.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 28, 2014 5:32:39 GMT -8
Those people who say that it isn't a CEO's duty to pay attention to stock price are reading too many business books and are not or haven't been in the real business world. I've been there - THAT is how it works whether you agree or not. I think you're referring to me, although I actually don't recall ever reading any "business books". My opinion on Tim Cook was just that, an opinion, but it's based on my years as a trader as well as my experience investing. I have to ask though, where does your aversion to books come from? We've had disagreements on options theory in the past, and you've cited "Internet blogs" as your sources, but never referred to any options books that you've read. When I first started as an options trader, they gave us a reading list of no less than a dozen textbooks that covered all aspects of options theory and options trading. And yet, they didn't point us to a single "Internet blog". Now you certainly seem like an intelligent person who has spent significant time studying your own options plays, but I can assure you, you have critical gaps in your option theories that could easily be filled with the type of formal knowledge that comes from books. I'm not sure why you feel the need to disparage those who get knowledge from books, but I would strongly recommend you reevaluate that stance. Perhaps you should pick up a book on human behavior to enlighten yourself to your comments above. IN NO WAY was I referring to YOU or anyone "specifically" - it was a generalization of a debate that has happened on this Board by different participants at different points in time over the years. You clearly took it personally but that was certainly not my intent nor is it my problem. I have been on AFB for years and if you read my posts on this Board and our previous site before we started this one, my intent is never to disparage anyone as you have done to me above. It's simply to state my opinion or convey something that I am seeing in the market place. We all bring different strengths to this Board and I will send you a private message as to my background if you are so intrigued. I can provide you with a summer reading list on Options but then I would be feeding your arrogance and what seems to be condescending tone toward me. Life's too short to put up with this nonsense.
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Post by firestorm on Jan 28, 2014 7:05:00 GMT -8
Still drifting lower this morning; at what point will the buyers think that the stock is a bargain?
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 28, 2014 7:07:38 GMT -8
I rolled some common into Apr $500 calls. I think the selling is overdone at this point. I am probably wrong though (as usual).
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Post by macglenn on Jan 28, 2014 7:12:37 GMT -8
Scully really shined with his analysis of APPLE on CNBC just now!
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Post by rob_london on Jan 28, 2014 7:16:53 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Jan 28, 2014 7:25:30 GMT -8
Probably going to see a 4th wave up from 502, then back below 500 before seeing a retrace of the move from 575.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 28, 2014 8:05:59 GMT -8
Scully really shined with his analysis of APPLE on CNBC just now! +1 I especially loved when he pointed out that Apple does not trade like a growth stock so why does everyone expect it to report like one ? This is tiresome but once again Apple reported a pretty decent quarter not that anyone wants to hear that right now I blame Wall Street as I'm not sure what Apple could have done differently. Last time I checked the iPhone was still the best on the market as well as iPad and Laptops. We are going to have to get used to the fact that Tim Cook's style is very different from Jobs .... Tim is all steak and no sizzle and WS does not seem to respond very well to it. Anyone who thinks that Apple is done innovating or coming out with new products should sell and short the hell out of the stock .... I'd say you're wrong but time will tell. Man ... am I getting tired of defending this stock .... Better days ahead for longs !!!!!
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 28, 2014 8:15:13 GMT -8
Ichan bought another $500 million in AAPL. Glutton for punishment?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 28, 2014 8:50:01 GMT -8
Ichan bought another $500 million in AAPL. Glutton for punishment? carl is going to set up his fight for cash utilization with all guns ablazing. If he publicly says the company was undervalued at 540, he better be willing to say it again at 505 since nothing changed! Frankly, the annual meeting is getting a lot more interesting than usual. $176 a share in cash now....Apple spent somewhat lavishly on equipment and materials last quarter (and before)so the argument can be made that the constant cash flow spinning off from operations might be more available for shareholders. Yes, a lot is overseas, but not all.....and a plan to distribute is a plan that can be adopted over time. I'm not a big fan of Carl but he has more of my attention today than two weeks ago....
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Post by leonb on Jan 28, 2014 9:11:16 GMT -8
Carl is right. Apple will never utilise so much cash, and traders/investors seem to be applying the same multiple to earnings, without allowing for cash - distribute the cash and let the shares trade at a modest multiple - investors are better off, and it makes no difference to the underlying company.
Apple needs a new product, etc - but the shares are unfairly beaten down. It's not a big growth company anymore, ok, but so what?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2014 9:14:23 GMT -8
I guess since we know how well China Mobile will sell in Its first quarter that we can say the deal is pretty much priced in now.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 28, 2014 9:24:24 GMT -8
I guess since we know how well China Mobile will sell in Its first quarter that we can say the deal is pretty much priced in now. It would certainly seem, once and for all, everything is priced in. We know Apple will report about $10.15-$10.20 in April, based on guidance and share count. No surprises until March on products.... whether the price is fair is the debate I guess. Now the battle is over cash utillization, at least until the end of February. it's certainly possible that all this noise nudges the Board in a somewhat different direction.
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Post by rlo on Jan 28, 2014 9:26:16 GMT -8
Ichan bought another $500 million in AAPL. Glutton for punishment? Dollar cost averaging?
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Post by rob_london on Jan 28, 2014 9:34:21 GMT -8
Ichan bought another $500 million in AAPL. Glutton for punishment? Dollar cost averaging? Catching a falling knife?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2014 10:24:04 GMT -8
Just wanted to wish good luck to all the longs left on this board.
I've found it hard to fathom when previous members here have all of a sudden changed their tune on Apple, but yesterday found myself doing just that.
I remain long AAPL via 2016 LEAPS, but I no longer intend on spending any effort on discussing it on anonymous Internet forums like this, and am moving to focusing on other actual growth stock opportunities.
Again, best of luck to all.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 28, 2014 10:42:44 GMT -8
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 28, 2014 11:23:13 GMT -8
Just wanted to wish good luck to all the longs left on this board. I've found it hard to fathom when previous members here have all of a sudden changed their tune on Apple, but yesterday found myself doing just that. I remain long AAPL via 2016 LEAPS, but I no longer intend on spending any effort on discussing it on anonymous Internet forums like this, and am moving to focusing on other actual growth stock opportunities. Again, best of luck to all. That's very unfortunate Burgess as I have really enjoyed your comments and analysis over the years. Maybe my short time posting here should end also? Anyway, bought more shares a few minutes ago in 4 of my accounts. Tough to be strong though. I will be patient now and sit on my shares until the new product categories begin to arrive. Cheers to the longs.
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Post by cbingle on Jan 28, 2014 12:31:57 GMT -8
3 hours ago ReplyQuotePost by rlo on 3 hours ago
4 hours ago incorrigible said: Ichan bought another $500 million in AAPL. Glutton for punishment?
Dollar cost averaging?
Uncle Carl is tweetin and yakkin faster than a .....
Never a good idea to throw good money after bad. Just shows he is an emotional human.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 28, 2014 12:48:30 GMT -8
Oh well. Will probably take a few months to shake this off. If you need a good laugh this morning, be sure to check out PED's final estimate spreadsheet. Have to wonder what his motivation is behind continuing to allow independents in. The even bigger question for me is the perverse desire of the independents to put their names up in lights with these estimates. A group of people whose only hope of being right is pure fluke, as they cannot possibly have any valid data to offer anything of real value compared to Apple guidance. The whole idea of an independent "analyst" is a joke and past its stale date. I get this practice for the home game, but for public consumption? I wish these independents would stop as they are now an embarrassment to themselves and to the company they follow. I've seen a lot of parallels with my previous life in sports journalism. There is a strong desire by many people to both attain some degree of fame in their otherwise anonymous, mundane lives, and a desire to be proven right about something. The latter can be particularly noxious on an Internet board in which all people share a common goal. Being "right" often supersedes everything else. "Ha ha ha I was right, AAPL went down, idiots!" is a good example. Yeah, congrats, we all lost money, but you were right. The problem is, as you say, is these amateurs have exactly zero channel or otherwise "inside" sources as the pros do, and we know how perilous relying on those sort of data are anyway (I still believe that Munster has a great source at Apple that they are working on a TV in Ive's lab, and he's still been wrong). I joined Braeburn briefly, and seeing the sausage get made would have had everyone here joining PETA. I remember getting their template, and thinking, "OK, but where do I get the numbers from?" Oh, that's what the darts are for! I've tried not to be too harsh on them, because some of them post here. Some are your friends. Many are decent and honorable and well meaning gentlemen. I've seen both sides of Internet infamy, having actually been threatened for my opinions by anonymous haters, so I am not totally unsympathetic to public criticism. But there is real money at stake here. Most importantly, my money. And these people used their real names and purposely sought out becoming limited public figures. So I'll just say it: what Robert is doing, regardless of good motives, is a fool's errand. He and his Braeburn fellows cannot possibly know how Apple, a company more secretive and opaque than most, will do from quarter to quarter. Hell, they have ignored Apple's pretty strong and clear messages on guidance (really Robert, a $2B beat over their guided range?). While it is true that a blind squirrel can occasionally find a nut once in a while, the reality is, most of them freeze to death in the snow or are eaten by cats.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2014 12:53:17 GMT -8
Does anyone really think that a few amateurs guessing at EPS and Sales is the reason Apple is down so much today?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 28, 2014 13:14:34 GMT -8
Does anyone really think that a few amateurs guessing at EPS and Sales is the reason Apple is down so much today? I assumed everyone reading my post was smart to understand that that was obviously not my implication. I thought Apple was down so much today was so fucking obvious I didn't need to talk about it.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 28, 2014 13:18:46 GMT -8
That is correct Pheobe. SJ could uniquely ignore shareholders. He didn't legitimately care and of course he could bend reality around him There is no one else in this world that can I was going to put this exact point in a letter to Tim. Steve himself told you not to ask, "what would Steve do?" Maybe he wasn't being nice. Perhaps he said that because he knew you were not him, and therefore couldn't get way with his Svengali shit.
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