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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 30, 2014 4:12:06 GMT -8
I feel like I am in the aftermath of some nuclear explosion and am searching for anyone who may still be alive. Ok...I'm being overly dramatic but we're still licking our wounds for sure. GOOG's announcement (they report tonight as does AMZN - frigging Bezos - I can't stand the guy) has been seen by WS as positive. My bigger concern is that it creates a bigger and better, perhaps, Lenovo....which will compete in China. Granted it will on the lower end but it may continue to take a bite out of the population that "may have" gone to a higher end phone. I'm really not sure but truth is that it seems like everyone is moving quickly and we're sort of stuck....at least that's how many investors see it (you don't have to agree but it's out there). Stock pretty much unchanged this morning in PM.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 30, 2014 5:07:49 GMT -8
Yep. I'm just waiting for an oversold bounce to get the fu$& out of dodge with this stock. Tim cook and co can take their North Star and shove it
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Post by nagrani on Jan 30, 2014 5:10:04 GMT -8
Let's see if the market will get google's share price to be 3x apples. Unreal how things play out.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Jan 30, 2014 5:20:16 GMT -8
Like everyone, I was disappointed with the markets reaction to earnings, and i feel the same sense of frustration with the way WS treats Apple vs. the way they treat Amazon and Google. On the other hand life is not fair and it is up to us to find a way to deal with it. So let me make this suggestion...if the cognitive dissonance gets too strong, just buy a few shares of Amazon and Google. Not a lot, just enough to take the edge off when they move up. Think of it as a mental health investment. And hang in there, I think it is going to be a great year
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 30, 2014 5:35:00 GMT -8
One step ahead of you Buzz777 - which is why I have been playing FB!
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,354
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Post by bud777 on Jan 30, 2014 5:50:17 GMT -8
One step ahead of you Buzz777 - which is why I have been playing FB! You are and always will be one step ahead of me
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Post by macwire on Jan 30, 2014 7:15:51 GMT -8
UA. BIG. WOW.
Yeah aapl won't even bounce.
GTFO of dodge....see if we get some relief Monday.
This is the WORST big cap investment you can make on S and P 100. Gross
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Post by rickag on Jan 30, 2014 7:33:50 GMT -8
Well I sold all my AAPL yesterday, I feel naked. I have held AAPL pretty much continuously since it was trading @ $14 prior to 2 of the share splits. Mostly guidance spooked me. I hope AAPL doesn't lose back to a P/E of ~10, but the threat was too much for me.
On the bright side for AAPL longs, since I am totally convinced there is a world wide conspiracy against me, all mutual fund and hedge fund strategy rooms are discussing me and they will now start to buy vast quantities of AAPL.
If perchance AAPL does fall, I am convinced new product categories are on the horizon I will get back in.
By the way bud777 here's another quote from George E.P. Box, "Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful."
Cheers to the longs
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Post by firestorm on Jan 30, 2014 7:39:52 GMT -8
Well I sold all my AAPL yesterday, I feel naked. I have held AAPL pretty much continuously since it was trading @ $14 prior to 2 of the share splits. Mostly guidance spooked me. I hope AAPL doesn't lose back to a P/E of ~10, but the threat was too much for me. On the bright side for AAPL longs, since I am totally convinced there is a world wide conspiracy against me, all mutual fund and hedge fund strategy rooms are discussing me and they will now start to buy vast quantities of AAPL. If perchance AAPL does fall, I am convinced new product categories are on the horizon I will get back in. By the way bud777 here's another quote from George E.P. Box, "Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful." Cheers to the longs That is exactly my position as well. It took several years, but they finally have gotten rid of many of the small investors like us. I feel sad and empty.
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Post by macwire on Jan 30, 2014 7:40:26 GMT -8
Well I sold all my AAPL yesterday, I feel naked. I have held AAPL pretty much continuously since it was trading @ $14 prior to 2 of the share splits. Mostly guidance spooked me. I hope AAPL doesn't lose back to a P/E of ~10, but the threat was too much for me. On the bright side for AAPL longs, since I am totally convinced there is a world wide conspiracy against me, all mutual fund and hedge fund strategy rooms are discussing me and they will now start to buy vast quantities of AAPL. If perchance AAPL does fall, I am convinced new product categories are on the horizon I will get back in. By the way bud777 here's another quote from George E.P. Box, "Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful." Cheers to the longs Good luck sir. Diversify out. Identify new opportunities. There's a lot of growth still out there. And aapl will trade better. Some day. Emotional attachment to investments limits objectivity.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 30, 2014 7:52:37 GMT -8
Right behind you. Last one out. Turn off the lights
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Post by rickag on Jan 30, 2014 8:12:04 GMT -8
Well I sold all my AAPL yesterday, I feel naked. I have held AAPL pretty much continuously since it was trading @ $14 prior to 2 of the share splits. Mostly guidance spooked me. I hope AAPL doesn't lose back to a P/E of ~10, but the threat was too much for me. On the bright side for AAPL longs, since I am totally convinced there is a world wide conspiracy against me, all mutual fund and hedge fund strategy rooms are discussing me and they will now start to buy vast quantities of AAPL. If perchance AAPL does fall, I am convinced new product categories are on the horizon I will get back in. By the way bud777 here's another quote from George E.P. Box, "Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful." Cheers to the longs Good luck sir. Diversify out. Identify new opportunities. There's a lot of growth still out there. And aapl will trade better. Some day. Emotional attachment to investments limits objectivity. Thanks. I am already diversified, but no other investment came close to the gains AAPL provided. Seriously thinking about investing in marijuana companies, the new growth industry.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 30, 2014 8:17:18 GMT -8
Seems the magic is indeed gone. Remember when Apple was innovative and on top of an emerging market?
I moved some AAPL into TSLA. It goes against my moral grain to do so. Technicals show a stock with and astronomical P/E and wildly over valued. But it has some of the old Apple charm. Innovative and highly regarded in a young market with high growth potential. And a brilliant, innovative, and charismatic CEO who is willing to take risks. Sound familiar?
I need something to look forward to in the future and, unfortunately, Apple ain't it. Good luck to all in whatever you choose to do.
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Post by appleaddict on Jan 30, 2014 8:33:58 GMT -8
Seems the magic is indeed gone. Remember when Apple was innovative and on top of an emerging market? I moved some AAPL into TSLA. It goes against my moral grain to do so. Technicals show a stock with and astronomical P/E and wildly over valued. But it has some of the old Apple charm. Innovative and highly regarded in a young market with high growth potential. And a brilliant, innovative, and charismatic CEO who is willing to take risks. Sound familiar? I need something to look forward to in the future and, unfortunately, Apple ain't it. Good luck to all in whatever you choose to do. You could be making lots of money today in Amazon, Facebook, Google, Netflix, Tesla and Twitter; or you can lose more in a great, fundamentally sound company like Apple. Tough choice. Maybe I'll divide what's left of my AAPL money into all of them, and then watch them tank.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2014 8:39:11 GMT -8
Apple's problem is they're a "safe, non growing" stock that makes a ton of money...but there are two problems. With the almost zero interest rate environment, everyone is looking for bigger risk, so who needs "safe" when you can make 50% off Facebook or Netflix. Also, Apple's foreign cash may as well be brought over, pay taxes and buyback all the stock. They have $122B overseas...it's ridiculous. Pay 30B in taxes, spend 90B on buybacks over the next 6 months and buyback 20% of the remaining shares...now EPS will increase by 25%.
And please don't try and tell me Apple needs this money...they made 20B in a single quarter.
In my mind, take a loan out for another 100B and buyback another 20 - 25% and pay back the loan with just over the 2 next years of profits. Now you've bought back almost 50% of the company.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Jan 30, 2014 8:45:56 GMT -8
"Bet the jockey"
Elon Musk Larry Page Robin Li Mark Zuckerberg Jeff Bezos Reed Hastings
Tim Cook
Perception is reality. Those first CEOs are regarded as tech visionaries and happen to be founders of their companies. They are seen as "creators" regardless of how silly there traditional metrics say they are valued. The fact is traditional valuations don't matter in tech. Bet the jockey is what does. I think the market expected a new product category under Tim Cook in 2012 which created the run up as investors thought he too would be regarded in the same light. 18 months later not so much. Tim Cook is doing a great job running the company and managing smoothly. He just isn't perceived in the same level as the others and I don't see that changing.
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Post by bryanyc on Jan 30, 2014 8:55:29 GMT -8
Right behind you. Last one out. Turn off the lights knock knock... any one home? ....... I heard some folks here were selling sport cars at rock bottom prices and I figured it might be a good time to buy one. In particular I like classic cars. The Fiat Cinquecento from 1974 that I drove this summer was a blast. They make a new model which looks fun too. BTW, Those cars just keep on running..... and the name means "500" Cheers to the Longs!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 30, 2014 8:59:08 GMT -8
Everything we learned about valuation no longer applies in the modern market. It's not about PE, cash/debt, or even about earnings growth.
It's about buzz and having a good story that the crowd believes in.
Sure, stories don't last forever, and the crowd can change their minds quickly. But some companies, like AMZN, have mastered the art of corporate storytelling. Others, like Apple, struggle to be valued fairly even when their earnings are growing like gangbusters, because the crowd doesn't believe in the story.
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Post by macglenn on Jan 30, 2014 9:04:36 GMT -8
Pretty high volume today for AAPL, with some big trades, two at 2mil shares.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 30, 2014 9:07:41 GMT -8
Adding... it's not just individual stocks that are being valued based on an emotional groupthink "story," but the entire market itself. Look how the S&P trades day-to-day, based on feelings about the Fed, growth, China, Europe, whatever... it's not based on actual earnings, but on the humors of the crowd.
What we've been doing is hanging onto a "bad story" stock, hoping that the crowd will eventually come to realize that the story of our fundamentally great fruit company is a great story. "We get it, and They don't," we have believed, and "someday soon, maybe after the next report, the next product, They will get it." Believing our understanding to be superior then Theirs. This is folly and ego.
The only thing we can do is ride the nonsensical waves of crowd emotion to eek out profits.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 30, 2014 9:27:28 GMT -8
Apple's problem is they're a "safe, non growing" stock that makes a ton of money...but there are two problems. With the almost zero interest rate environment, everyone is looking for bigger risk, so who needs "safe" when you can make 50% off Facebook or Netflix. Also, Apple's foreign cash may as well be brought over, pay taxes and buyback all the stock. They have $122B overseas...it's ridiculous. Pay 30B in taxes, spend 90B on buybacks over the next 6 months and buyback 20% of the remaining shares...now EPS will increase by 25%. And please don't try and tell me Apple needs this money...they made 20B in a single quarter. In my mind, take a loan out for another 100B and buyback another 20 - 25% and pay back the loan with just over the 2 next years of profits. Now you've bought back almost 50% of the company. What's the point of a buyback? It fools nobody. Apple spent billions buying back shares, and got an EPS beat it wouldn't have had otherwise, and what did the stock do? Billions down the rathole for what? As if we on AFB are the only ones who know how this works? WS isn't fooled by accounting tricks.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 30, 2014 9:33:13 GMT -8
Adding... it's not just individual stocks that are being valued based on an emotional groupthink "story," but the entire market itself. Look how the S&P trades day-to-day, based on feelings about the Fed, growth, China, Europe, whatever... it's not based on actual earnings, but on the humors of the crowd. What we've been doing is hanging onto a "bad story" stock, hoping that the crowd will eventually come to realize that the story of our fundamentally great fruit company is a great story. "We get it, and They don't," we have believed, and "someday soon, maybe after the next report, the next product, They will get it." Believing our understanding to be superior then Theirs. This is folly and ego. The only thing we can do is ride the nonsensical waves of crowd emotion to eek out profits. Try this everyone..... those that get Apple understand this article to be true. Those that don't are the rest of you. No faith, no life. www.jayhaynes.net/2014/01/apples-3-trillion-valuation.html
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 30, 2014 9:35:04 GMT -8
Fundamentals, Buybacks, EPS .... yadda yadda yadda .... none of that seems to matter. At this point AAPL is dead money until a new product of some sort comes out .... set top box, iWatch , larger screen on iPhone , mobile payments .... ALL of which IMHO are coming. Until then I hope we can maintain a floor but when people see all of the opportunity available in the market right now it's hard not to believe that AAPL will sell off further and funds will move into a host of other names .....
Cheers to the longs ! Hopefully our patience will pay off .....
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 30, 2014 9:38:33 GMT -8
Right behind you. Last one out. Turn off the lights Judging from the mood of the forum lately, it appears that I may be the one to turn the lights off. I wish all the long term Apple shareholders that are selling their stock and moving on to other investment great financial success.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 30, 2014 9:51:44 GMT -8
Momentum players have done fairly well - no harm in owning more of other companies and just keeping your toe in AAPL. Thank God for FB, GOOG, and BIDU this year -- hate some of them but momentum was there. You just need to be a bit nimble, very disciplined, and somewhat hedged. Maybe I do better with those stocks because I am not emotionally involved like I am with AAPL. Not sure but it's certainly a strong possibility. I will continue to have a small position and although I may not catch the bottom of a wave, I'm perfectly content catching it on the way up. The thing is - I need to keep a position in it in order to stay engaged. If not, I know I will not be paying attention when I should. I may be crazy - but I do think they will deliver something this year at some point.
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Post by rickag on Jan 30, 2014 9:56:19 GMT -8
I did sell but I'd like to explain that I am not dissatisfied with Apple. I firmly believe Apple is still one of most innovative companies world wide. I do believe Tim Cook has done an admirable job under daunting circumstances. Perfect no, but no one is perfect.
It's just that Wall Street for some good reasons (like slowing or no growth based on guidance) and some very short sighted reasons (lack of innovation not going after the low end market, etc.) places less value on AAPL than seems justified.
And the negativity and FUD, it is unmatched for any industry. For holy frigging sake, now there is an article out that claims one of Apple's flagship stores smells like BO. The negativity surrounding Apple is unrelenting.
I take Tim Cook at his word, that new categories are coming, but due to Apple's historical secrecy AAPL is penalized.
There seems to be a base forming @ $500, but what affect do the ~12,000 puts expiring tomorrow @ $500 play in this?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2014 9:59:53 GMT -8
Apple's problem is they're a "safe, non growing" stock that makes a ton of money...but there are two problems. With the almost zero interest rate environment, everyone is looking for bigger risk, so who needs "safe" when you can make 50% off Facebook or Netflix. Also, Apple's foreign cash may as well be brought over, pay taxes and buyback all the stock. They have $122B overseas...it's ridiculous. Pay 30B in taxes, spend 90B on buybacks over the next 6 months and buyback 20% of the remaining shares...now EPS will increase by 25%. And please don't try and tell me Apple needs this money...they made 20B in a single quarter. In my mind, take a loan out for another 100B and buyback another 20 - 25% and pay back the loan with just over the 2 next years of profits. Now you've bought back almost 50% of the company. What's the point of a buyback? It fools nobody. Apple spent billions buying back shares, and got an EPS beat it wouldn't have had otherwise, and what did the stock do? Billions down the rathole for what? As if we on AFB are the only ones who know how this works? WS isn't fooled by accounting tricks. Apple dropped because of terrible guidance, not because it reported $14.50. Take a look at IBM's stock price over the last 5 or 6 years...they've hardly increased Net Income at all, from 13.5B to 16.5B over the past 5 years. Yet they've spent their money increasing the dividend and buying back stock. The result is their stock has doubled in the past 5 years...despite growing Net Income around 20%. IBM is hardly growing at all, yet their stock price has doubled in 5 years...why? Because they use their excess cash to give back to Shareholders in the result of buybacks and dividends.
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Post by rickag on Jan 30, 2014 10:07:28 GMT -8
Adding... it's not just individual stocks that are being valued based on an emotional groupthink "story," but the entire market itself. Look how the S&P trades day-to-day, based on feelings about the Fed, growth, China, Europe, whatever... it's not based on actual earnings, but on the humors of the crowd. What we've been doing is hanging onto a "bad story" stock, hoping that the crowd will eventually come to realize that the story of our fundamentally great fruit company is a great story. "We get it, and They don't," we have believed, and "someday soon, maybe after the next report, the next product, They will get it." Believing our understanding to be superior then Theirs. This is folly and ego. The only thing we can do is ride the nonsensical waves of crowd emotion to eek out profits. Try this everyone..... those that get Apple understand this article to be true. Those that don't are the rest of you. No faith, no life. www.jayhaynes.net/2014/01/apples-3-trillion-valuation.htmlThanks for the link, very insightful. Wish Wall Street would read this.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 30, 2014 10:31:39 GMT -8
What's the point of a buyback? It fools nobody. Apple spent billions buying back shares, and got an EPS beat it wouldn't have had otherwise, and what did the stock do? Billions down the rathole for what? As if we on AFB are the only ones who know how this works? WS isn't fooled by accounting tricks. Apple dropped because of terrible guidance, not because it reported $14.50. Where did I say AAPL dropped because of its earnings? I said AAPL dropped *despite* its earnings. So what is the point of spending billions of dollars buying back shares to get EPS beats if guidance is going to trump it? What did we get for it? And I don't buy the correlation of IBM buying back shares as proof it works. And I say this as a 20-year shareholder of IBM. IBM is off $45 from its high right now, BTW, because the economy sucks and it is a cyclical. No buyback will save IBM from that reality. Bottom line, it didn't work for Apple, and I would rather have received dividend checks with those billions. Now, if you want to argue we would have been hit even harder had we not beat EPS, by all means. But that is hardly a sustainable stock management strategy, having to spend billions to go down $50 instead of $100. ****** BTW, no offense (or advice) intended, but for all those advocating selling Apple $200 off its ATH, and buying Google near its ATH, some would say that is exactly what separates the retail investor from the billionaires like Carl Icahn. "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if it's your own." "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"
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Post by Volvocoupe on Jan 30, 2014 10:32:56 GMT -8
Thanks for the link, very insightful. Wish Wall Street would read this. You are very welcome Rickag! It is all about faith for human beings, whatever that faith might be. I think many of us here have lost faith in more than one thing, whether it be Apple, the market, WS, retail investors, Tim Cook, religion, the U.S. political system, etc. No faith, no life. Find something to have faith in and stick to it until it has been proven false. If it is, then find something else. Otherwise, you will just be a bitter, empty human being. Sound familiar anyone? Cheers to the believers in Apple's ability to disrupt itself before anyone else can. Please tell me of one company that is truely disrupting Apple right now and before you answer that question with a name, have another look at your opinion. Are they really disrupting Apple? I don't see one personally. Cheers to the longs.
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