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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 12, 2014 4:17:05 GMT -8
Wednesday - Hump Day - Goodmorning...
JPM out with a note this morning:
In our view, a combination of elongating replacement cycles and vendor consolidation could dampen the smartphone market’s long-term revenue and profit growth prospects. These headwinds could have a negative impact on Apple’s model, but we think there are some potential buffers that could keep the Apple story interesting: 1) iPhone launch with a 5-inch display in mid-2014 and 2) a converged mobility and computing platform, which we call iAnywhere, introduced in the next 12-18 months.
Apple iAnywhere a key 2014 trend. We believe that evidence points to Apple (covered by JPM IT Hardware analyst Mark Moskowitz) releasing a converged iOS/OSX product in H2 that would provide users with an alternative to the MacBook line and potentially drive iOS device share gains. We also expect a new class of peripherals to enable users to use iOS products as desktop PCs as well.
The next category ? a converged platform. While not a new idea, our global tech research team believes Apple could be on the cusp of introducing a new category with “iAnywhere,” a converged Mac OS - iOS operating system that allows an iPhone or iPad to dock into a specially configured display to run as a computer. We expect Apple to maintain a separate Mac OS for traditional Macs.
iAnywhere could be the leapfrog event. In our view, iAnywhere could be a stepping stone to a broader peripherals and services-led sale, partially reducing Apple’s dependence on device-led product cycles. Apple could generate revenue through the sale of specially configured displays, iAnywhere-capable iPhones or iPads, and cloud-based software and storage services. While we are encouraged, our Apple estimates do not incorporate iAnywhere at this time.
iPhone and iPad growth rates point to a need for the “next big thing.” We think Apple potentially leveraging its devices and software to converge mobility and computing can be a game-changer product category. The growth arc in iPhone is flattening out, and iPad has not stepped up to become the next growth chariot. With replacement cycles elongating and competitive pressures likely increasing, we think iAnywhere could provide Apple a leapfrog event ahead of the competition.
Not seeing much by way of news or commentary elsewhere. Meanwhile The stock was up a few points earlier and is currently unchanged in PM. Enjoy the day ~ cheers to the longs.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2014 4:30:44 GMT -8
JPM is doing a lot of speculating without any data points, even branding it "iAnywhere." We know Apple is building out its infrastructure -- but not for the purpose of converging things. There's a lot of market share to poach from Android, along with replacement cycles, and with a larger iPhone expected, it's surprising JPM would be so in front of its skis here.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 12, 2014 4:43:03 GMT -8
JPM is doing a lot of speculating without any data points, even branding it "iAnywhere." We know Apple is building out its infrastructure -- but not for the purpose of converging things. There's a lot of market share to poach from Android, along with replacement cycles, and with a larger iPhone expected, it's surprising JPM would be so in front of its skis here. To be honest I would welcome a better mix of revenue. One of the bigger criticisms of the company has been how great a piece of the pie the iPhone is - less dependence on hardware or a better mix in general would be welcomed. Also Mercel, you better than most know that you will find few factually based conclusions or predictions out of WS analysts. It's like being the weatherman (woman).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2014 4:56:49 GMT -8
Oh, I agree that Apple is keenly interested in flattening the seasonality of its sales. Deferred revenue being Exhibit A. Too, I'm sure it hasn't been lost on Apple that sustainable, services in the cloud can provide an annuity --and just look at the reward WS has bestowed on Google.
But JPM's convergence idea with "iAnywhere?" That was what Windows 8 was supposed to achieve, and we know how that turned out.
Maybe Mark Moskowitz and Brian "iRing" White are having lunch these days...
Among the WS analysts, I think highest of Katy Huberty. Toni Sacconaghi is getting better. But seriously, what qualifications do they have, really? I don't think any of them have credentials in business valuation (ABV, CVA, etc.). WS is so undisciplined.
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Post by mightydog on Feb 12, 2014 5:03:56 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 12, 2014 5:05:48 GMT -8
Completely agree with your comments including Katy and Tony. Tony in particular earned my respect this last quarter when he questioned TC and Oppie and gave them a bit of push back. He wasn't disrespectful but was to the point. I like when people do not tip-toe in these events and attempt to extract good information.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 12, 2014 5:08:49 GMT -8
The comments in this article would debunk the JPM piece this morning - wonder if their analyst saw this? Geez!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2014 5:18:31 GMT -8
Completely agree with your comments including Katy and Tony. Tony in particular earned my respect this last quarter when he questioned TC and Oppie and gave them a bit of push back. He wasn't disrespectful but was to the point. I like when people do not tip-toe in these events and attempt to extract good information. No doubt Tim wasn't happy giving his comments while watching AAPL shed 40 points. It was laughable to see WS try to make a bigger deal of Tim's demeanor. He was completely fine and respectful, like you say. The BIG question is why institutions are underweight with AAPL. Surely, Tim has tried to learn the answer. I'm just waiting for one WS analyst to predict Apple will make Flappy Bird part of iOS8.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Feb 12, 2014 5:26:15 GMT -8
I think it is more likely that Apple will introduce a new product called iDon'tKnowShit. This converged combination 27" iMac/iWatch is specifically designed with software to generate Apple analyst reports. Using a combination of data mining of old Apple articles and a random number generator, it generates detailed predictions guaranteed to produce page clicks.
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Post by redinaustin on Feb 12, 2014 5:43:20 GMT -8
I think it is more likely that Apple will introduce a new product called iDon'tKnowShit. This converged combination 27" iMac/iWatch is specifically designed with software to generate Apple analyst reports. Using a combination of data mining of old Apple articles and a random number generator, it generates detailed predictions guaranteed to produce page clicks.
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Post by BillH on Feb 12, 2014 6:16:04 GMT -8
It wouldn't surprise me to find that they got the gist of this right at some point down the road. At the very beginning of Apples acquisition of Next Steve talked of having his data available anywhere just by signing in and how he hadn't lost anything for five years. He said this was the "low hanging fruit" that he thought Apple should pursue. iCloud is currently the first step toward that objective but it needs to go a lot further. We've all seen the recent reports of Apple massively expanding it's server capacity/capability. iDevices run OSX. The new mobile 64 bit chips are being referred to as desktop class processors. JPM may be merely connecting the dots here. I think we're making too much of the word "converged". I may be selfishly wishful thinking here as I have iMac's in multiple locations along with a Macbook Air. It would be really nice to have Apple do the heavy lifting of syncing all this stuff as I don't seem to be getting around to it anytime soon. If they continue to drive down the price of their processors and memory it would seem logical to turn the Apple TV into a computer as well. My iTunes library is lost to me when we have visitors and I put the iMac into guest mode. Having all your data available from the cloud would solve this problem nicely.
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Post by po1nt on Feb 12, 2014 6:25:05 GMT -8
Good morning boys and girls. Looking strong PM. A rejection zone to watch for.... 50-Day and trend-line test:
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 12, 2014 7:58:27 GMT -8
Still wish AAPL would buy Dropbox - it has its merits
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2014 8:01:30 GMT -8
Check out Amazon...down $14. They're hiring more people and now even retail money is afraid they'll run out of money. I'm a buyer of AMZN at $75
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Post by mightydog on Feb 12, 2014 8:02:15 GMT -8
The comments in this article would debunk the JPM piece this morning - wonder if their analyst saw this? Geez! I think it is less a factor of the operating system and more the functionality. if you can have the same experience on desktop and mobile devices then you more or less achieve what JPM analysts are mentioning. I believe what Federighi is talking about is the interface, i.e. touch screens for mobile and keyboard/mouse/trackpad for desktop.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 12, 2014 8:12:39 GMT -8
Check out Amazon...down $14. They're hiring more people and now even retail money is afraid they'll run out of money. I'm a buyer of AMZN at $75 UBS downgraded Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) from Buy to Neutral with a price target of $375.00 (from $450.00). A proprietary Amazon Prime price survey showed 94% of Amazon Prime customers would likelihood renew at $79 per year. The percentage dropped to 58% and 24% respectively with price increases of $20 and $40. "Based on both Amazon's recent Q4 13 results (surprise deceleration in revenue & paid unit growth trends – both against easier compares) & the results of a proprietary Amazon Prime price survey, we are downgrading Amazon, said analyst Eric J. Sheridan. www.streetinsider.com/Downgrades/UBS+Downgrades+Amazon+%28AMZN%29+to+Neutral%3B+Analyst+Surprised+by+Prime+Price+Survey/9156301.html
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 12, 2014 9:39:50 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 12, 2014 10:56:23 GMT -8
I found these numbers pretty surprising: "When asked what version of the iPhone they currently use, 52 per cent said they had a 5, 29 per cent had a 4 or 4S and just nine per cent were still using a 3 or 3GS. One in ten people were using one of the latest two models, the iPhone 5C or 5S." A UK company conducted the survey, so I would guess that's where the sample is from. I would like to see if US numbers are different. Only 10% having one of the latest models seems very low, but would indicate a significant opportunity for upgrade sales in 2014.
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Post by incorrigible on Feb 12, 2014 11:43:36 GMT -8
I still have a 4S. I like the size better than the 5 models. Fits better in the pocket. I don't need a big screen.
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Post by mstrmac on Feb 12, 2014 12:16:12 GMT -8
Yes and ios7 runs very good on my 4s. It was like getting a new phone. Many are holding out for a newer model. And in other news..... Microsoft considering allowing Android apps to run on Windows - report By Neil Hughes In an effort to bolster its struggling Windows platforms, Microsoft is said to be "seriously considering" allowing Android applications to run in both the traditional Windows environment, as well as on the Windows Phone mobile platform.
What this could mean?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 12, 2014 13:24:14 GMT -8
JPM is doing a lot of speculating without any data points, even branding it "iAnywhere." We know Apple is building out its infrastructure -- but not for the purpose of converging things. There's a lot of market share to poach from Android, along with replacement cycles, and with a larger iPhone expected, it's surprising JPM would be so in front of its skis here. To be honest I would welcome a better mix of revenue. One of the bigger criticisms of the company has been how great a piece of the pie the iPhone is - less dependence on hardware or a better mix in general would be welcomed. Also Mercel, you better than most know that you will find few factually based conclusions or predictions out of WS analysts. It's like being the weatherman (woman). The article above is excellent, and it lays out Apple's strategy of clear product differentiation very well. The last thing Apple wants is one product doing the job of two, not just because hybrid "solutions" tend to suck ( e.g., Surface), but because converged products are revenue killers. Why sell a product that hurts both the consumer and the manufacturer? There was an excellent article on this a few years back, but I have no idea who wrote it, describing Apple's product differentiation strategy (wish I could find that article!). Of course it started when Jobs came back in '95 with that classic story of him standing in front of the Board and killing 75% of Apple's products, and finishing with pictures of 4 main products. The last thing Apple wants to produce are endless variations of every single size and shape like Samsung does (However, I repeat my call for a larger iPhone that I can see and my large hands can use). I do, however, think that a common codebase for OSX and iOS is possible (Ferengi's comments discuss UX, not code). I truly believe Apple is developing its own Mac SoC's in the lab as we speak. Whether they ever see the light of day is another matter. But it would be foolish (bad foolish, not Steve Jobs foolish) not to work on Mac processors in house as they have with the Ax on mobile. Frankly, Intel hasn't done shit in 3 years with their desktop processors. Haswell is unimpressive. A 2011 Ivy Bridge is maybe 5-10% slower in most benches. Intel has done a little better with Xeons, but their astronomical pricing means they can't be used in consumer Macs. And I saw a review of the Mac Pro that showed the iMac almost as fast in some benches. I wonder if Apple is thinking Motorola PowerPC all over again, with someone else controlling their hardware destiny who is stuck in an innovation rut. Then again, maybe they have benched samples of the upcoming Ivytown Xeons and their 15 cores, and all will be well. But unless Intel shares some of the Xeon design love with the consumer CPU's, that won't matter much for most Mac users. But I think there is a 0% chance Apple isn't developing its own ARM-based Mac CPU's in parallel. Obviously, ARM-based Macs would require a complete OSX rewrite, and long-time Mac users know how painful that can be, going from 680X0 to PowerPC to Intel. Worst case, they function as leverage with Intel. But the A7 proved Apple could make a kick-ass CPU, and I doubt that lesson was lost on the Mac hardware team. Too bad Intel is too dumb to license its architecture like ARM does. Dinosaurs.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 12, 2014 13:39:44 GMT -8
Yes and ios7 runs very good on my 4s. It was like getting a new phone. Many are holding out for a newer model. And in other news..... Microsoft considering allowing Android apps to run on Windows - report By Neil Hughes In an effort to bolster its struggling Windows platforms, Microsoft is said to be "seriously considering" allowing Android applications to run in both the traditional Windows environment, as well as on the Windows Phone mobile platform. What this could mean? It means Microsoft makes a hell of a lot more on Android than it does on Windows phones. Almost certainly more than Google makes ATM, since Microsoft has zero R&D and production costs on Android, just tasty patent licenses. Bad news for Android, just like when Samsung finally launches Tizen and "allows" Android apps to run (already doable). I love that word "allows." As in, "I will allow you to buy me a drink." Just less phones Google gets ad/search/map revenues on... Speaking of Samsung, I have to admit to being quite the turncoat. I just bought a 500GB Samsung SSD for my new Alienware 17" laptop, upon which I type this. Pretty much the fastest SSD out there. But hey, it's not like Apple makes SSD's - hopefully my monumental purchase will encourage Samsung to make more HDD's and less phones. Ironic that Apple makes neither a large enough laptop or phone for my eyes and hands...
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Post by Lstream on Feb 12, 2014 13:48:05 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 12, 2014 14:23:11 GMT -8
Black holes.....always a danger to unwary starships or other types of vehicles. Rumor the Ferrari brothers have been tunneling.....
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 12, 2014 14:32:16 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 12, 2014 14:34:40 GMT -8
Improving one's moat involves growing all core business lines. Software has actually done well for itself pretty consistently, quarter after quarter. And by making productivity/content creation apps free, that's more $$ for consumers to try and buy third-party apps/hosted media. Hurts Apple's software revenue, can only help the ecosystem.
And anyone who thinks the jack-of-all-trades, app-packed, decently-secure-Internet-connected ultrapocketable is going anywhere is a moron. What, you'll have the SoC somewhere else and interact "dumb terminal"-style from a credit-card-thick sheet of glass? Worst case scenario - the world somehow goes mesh Internet (sure). Well, Apple did sell an iPod touch once.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 12, 2014 14:37:23 GMT -8
Yes and ios7 runs very good on my 4s. It was like getting a new phone. Many are holding out for a newer model. And in other news..... Microsoft considering allowing Android apps to run on Windows - report By Neil Hughes In an effort to bolster its struggling Windows platforms, Microsoft is said to be "seriously considering" allowing Android applications to run in both the traditional Windows environment, as well as on the Windows Phone mobile platform. What this could mean? It means Microsoft makes a hell of a lot more on Android than it does on Windows phones. Almost certainly more than Google makes ATM, since Microsoft has zero R&D and production costs on Android, just tasty patent licenses. Bad news for Android, just like when Samsung finally launches Tizen and "allows" Android apps to run (already doable). I love that word "allows." As in, "I will allow you to buy me a drink." Just less phones Google gets ad/search/map revenues on... Speaking of Samsung, I have to admit to being quite the turncoat. I just bought a 500GB Samsung SSD for my new Alienware 17" laptop, upon which I type this. Pretty much the fastest SSD out there. But hey, it's not like Apple makes SSD's - hopefully my monumental purchase will encourage Samsung to make more HDD's and less phones. Ironic that Apple makes neither a large enough laptop or phone for my eyes and hands... Oh no - Et tu, Brute?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 12, 2014 14:54:47 GMT -8
I still have a 4S. I like the size better than the 5 models. Fits better in the pocket. I don't need a big screen. Yes and ios7 runs very good on my 4s. It was like getting a new phone. Many are holding out for a newer model. I did not doubt that there would be a solid percentage of legacy devices, but 10% penetration of installed base seemed very low. I guess when we see the lines at Apple Stores worldwide on launch day, it is easy to forget just how enormous the user community really is. In some ways, this makes the iOS7 uptake numbers even more impressive. Either those with older models are willing to live with defects/limitations or the iOS team did an incredible job, from design to implementation through testing. Notwithstanding personal preferences (don't often hear much call for smaller iPhone screens), after upgrading from the 4S to the 5s this year, right on biannual schedule, I don't understand why anyone (at least in the US) wouldn't do it. With the 4S trade-in we each got about 30-40 minutes of expert upgrade assistance at the Apple store for about $50 and walked out with state of the art devices.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 12, 2014 15:41:06 GMT -8
I still have a 4S. I like the size better than the 5 models. Fits better in the pocket. I don't need a big screen. Yes and ios7 runs very good on my 4s. It was like getting a new phone. Many are holding out for a newer model. I did not doubt that there would be a solid percentage of legacy devices, but 10% penetration of installed base seemed very low. Or maybe we shouldn't give total credence to some guy named, Never heard of you or your Website. For one, it's UK-only. For another, methodology? For one thing, why would people who just bought a brand new 5S be taking a survey about phones? Selection bias. The numbers could be right, but let's not pretend some guy who sells phones on a UK Website should be viewed with the respect of Gallup.
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Post by infohunter on Feb 12, 2014 16:21:51 GMT -8
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