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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2012 13:06:34 GMT -8
Divergence is something I'm still working on. I've long focused on market relative strength without really knowing what it all meant. But it does seem I'm actually kind of thinking the same way some of you are. AAPL is reaching a short-term inflection point. Which is both fine and convenient, given the iPhone 5 "moment of truth" less than a week away, which is itself a misnomer but this is Chart Talk so I can discuss that elsewhere. Mav, as I told you long ago, you were instinctively picking up on the story the technicals told without even knowing it. So now, for you, technicals can potentially confirm what your Spidey Senses already tell you. And you'll find those high probability trades where your gut and the technicals align. Divergence is both powerful and tricky...because a strong trend can keep diverging a lot longer than usual...especially a strong UPtrend. So it's one of those "good to know, but don't bet the farm" things. The way I see it...bearish divergence doesn't necessarily equate with "TOP." But tops rarely happen without it. Ditto bottoms -- usually a strong buy signal, if even just for an oversold bounce. That's why I pay close attention to it. So, that said, look at MACD-h on the 2H chart. That's classic bearish divergence. Now compare now with previous instances and see where there was and was not follow through -- or how long it took to see follow-through -- to get a sense of things.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2012 13:14:10 GMT -8
This could be a pullback point. We'll see. Thinking of hedging into Friday anyway. The timing could not be more perfect for AAPL to pullback, given the progression of the iPhone 5 launch. Thing is, Laz is short AAPL, and Redler is long. Two different approaches from two somewhat different traders (Laz seems to focus much more on shorter timeframes and the 8/13/21-day something or other (SMA, EMA, I dunno)). Mav, I agree something is strange. I was on the CBOE page a few minutes ago and saw where Redler said he was long AAPL. I tend to think of the three of them like this: Laz is the perma-bear (when he's long, pay attention), Sperling is the perma-bull (when he's short, pay attention), and Scott plays both sides equally well. Besides trading AAPL effectively on multiple timeframes, Scott is also a huge AAPL fan. Unless we're in a potent downtrend, he rarely "holds" shorts on AAPL overnight -- far more likely to do the intraday "cute short," if anything. But most often, he'll just hedge his AAPL swing long with SPY or QQQ shorts. Laz, on the other hand, nails every downwave on AAPL -- he'll get stopped out if he's wrong, but he isn't afraid to try it given enough technical signs. (Mav, Laz likes EMA-8 and EMA-21 on all timeframes.)
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2012 13:18:22 GMT -8
Thanks, Professor Lovemyipad, for the lesson on bearish divergence. And thanks, Mav, for being the talented student illustrating the lesson. My pleasure, P! Agree re: Mav... He asks great questions!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2012 13:19:48 GMT -8
To clarify a bit, I think MB and I are agreeing on a sign of short-short-term AAPL weakness.
I aspire to be a bull/bear market trader so maybe that's why I align more with Redler's mindset. If you're trading, what does the action tell you?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2012 14:31:36 GMT -8
That actually wasn't a question to you iPad, but I appreciate the insight. Well, crap! I just used my magic eraser.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 19, 2012 15:59:02 GMT -8
I was just looking at GOOG's chart, looks even more frothy that AAPL's.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2012 16:06:00 GMT -8
Indeed. I don't compare the two, it's just a waste of time. AAPL wouldn't really be reacting this week anyway. I just hope I don't get run over _too_ badly by iPad should I get caught on the wrong side of the trade, again, tomorrow. If I can hedge up my Jan 13s if AAPL doesn't tank beforehand, I'll pretty much call it a day AAPL-wise except for maybe a butterfly experiment or two.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2012 16:25:56 GMT -8
I'm not ruling out another push up...I'm just being chicken...and possibly front-running instead of waiting for confirmation. The trend is UP until proven otherwise and all that!
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 19, 2012 17:52:48 GMT -8
Indeed. I don't compare the two, it's just a waste of time. AAPL wouldn't really be reacting this week anyway. I just hope I don't get run over _too_ badly by iPad should I get caught on the wrong side of the trade, again, tomorrow. If I can hedge up my Jan 13s if AAPL doesn't tank beforehand, I'll pretty much call it a day AAPL-wise except for maybe a butterfly experiment or two. Mav, I referenced GOOG's chart not because of the company, but because it's chart is much more overextended than AAPL's
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2012 18:00:33 GMT -8
Oh, I know, I know. Not hard to do when GOOG is "blasting off" while AAPL is basing.
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 9:54:57 GMT -8
I like the way Redler goes about Fibs. Call it 692-693ish for the 23.6 (am I right, iPad?) percent Fib retrace.
Multiply 23.6% retrace differential by 1.618 as a quick way to get to 38.2% retrace, and the next level to watch aside from any support is 685-686 or so.
So far, no huge short-term concerns in my highly uneducated opinion.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2012 10:10:44 GMT -8
Mav, you got it! And I'm a buyer at the 38.2% retrace.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 20, 2012 11:19:59 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 11:40:20 GMT -8
I'll add that to my bookmarks. Thanks!
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 20:32:27 GMT -8
Aw, so quiet today...
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2012 21:34:21 GMT -8
Yeah, but see the cute little "home" button!
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 20, 2012 21:47:24 GMT -8
Yeah, but see the cute little "home" button! Does it turn green on an up day?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2012 21:53:43 GMT -8
Yeah, but see the cute little "home" button! Does it turn green on an up day? I wanted to make all the different colors! But, um, slight problem, seeing as I don't really know what I'm going...so they all, uh, wound up different sizes. I better stick to charts!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 21:56:03 GMT -8
Yeah, but see the cute little "home" button! I like those red apples, but ME WANT CHART TALK!
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 22:02:19 GMT -8
Anyway, I'll do my own hyperamateur quick scan...
10/15-min...uh...hidden bullish divergence around end of day...? Or something like it? From lower and lower peaks to a higher one.
Hourly - Volatility compression deluxe with a side of chamfered anodized aluminum. Inflection point time...?
Daily MACD-h - yep, inflection point. Right on schedule!
2-day - Bearish divergence on MACD-h, but from the BBs looks pretty good actually (hence bearish divergence?)
Weekly - I kinda like how that chart's progressing, even if the MACD-h peak will "necessarily" (probably) look less impressive than the "parabolic" move earlier this year.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 20, 2012 22:45:05 GMT -8
I'm thinking down to some key moving average on the daily... maybe just EMA-8 or EMA-13...not too far at all, just far enough to work off this bearish divergence, then bounce and retest the highs. That's my WAG.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 22:50:30 GMT -8
We may not get it. We'll see. EMA-8's at 691-ish, right?
I know I don't know much what I'm talking about in technicals, and probably won't for years, but this setup is actually EXACTLY where I want it to be. Technicals and news and facts and figures converging. Technicals feel like they're waiting for something. Just like AAPL market participants!
I think we'll get a great signpost out of next week. For how long, who knows, but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 21, 2012 7:28:16 GMT -8
Looking like 704 went from resistance to support, if I am looking at today's chart correctly.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2012 9:31:01 GMT -8
I'd go with 700 as support first. But _nothing_ is firm support at 700+. Far too early.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 21, 2012 12:55:08 GMT -8
Well, I've been leaning bearish since the divergences showed up on various timeframes, BUT late in the day I saw this one EW thing that opens up a bullish possibility. I know most here never have to be convinced about a bullish possibility ;D and logically expect a huge rocket launch next week. My problem is always that logic bites me in the butt more often than not with this stock in short-term timeframes, so I try to resist forecasting. In the end, there are always the same potential paths: up, down, sideways. It's the darn order that trips us up. So I'll post 2 charts in just a bit...one is a "down before up" scenario and the the other is an "up before down" scenario. Regardless of which comes first, the chicken or the egg, the corresponding Fibs should provide some clues and levels to watch for further clues.
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Post by prazan on Sept 22, 2012 19:36:14 GMT -8
When calculating fibs, what criteria do you use to select the lows? For example, do you select the low of 660 in September, the low of 570 in July, or one preceding that? Which chart do you use? Daily? Hourly?
Sorry for the Fib 101 level question.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2012 7:12:01 GMT -8
When calculating fibs, what criteria do you use to select the lows? For example, do you select the low of 660 in September, the low of 570 in July, or one preceding that? Which chart do you use? Daily? Hourly? Sorry for the Fib 101 level question. All of the above. And it's a great question, P. Because Fibs are all about proportions, I am finding that no matter how you slice and dice, the proportions remain proportional. So one slice might show xxx.xx as the .38 while another shows the same xxx.xx as the .50. When the same levels turn up on various different slices and dices, this is confluence (learned this from Avi Gilbert). Since Fibs work in every timeframe, pick your preferred timeframe, and corresponding upwave origin.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 23, 2012 14:47:26 GMT -8
Hi all, I Googled for a good chicken entrails recipe, and this thread came up!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2012 14:52:36 GMT -8
Well, you certainly helped Google's indexing by mentioning chicken entrails in this thread! Next up: A post from chickenlivrlover saying: "Hey there I was looking for a good chicken entrails recipe and I found your forum. But all I see is chart Fib thingies."
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 23, 2012 20:53:19 GMT -8
Thanks lovemyipad! Just like my mom used to do...you take care of all the house keeping around here and you find time to put meat and potato's on the dinner table! Your far too good to us kids!!
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