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Post by traitorjoe on Feb 27, 2013 11:06:17 GMT -8
Cook = Great Ops guy- very subdued and laser focused and risk averse, which is great on that side of the field which is mostly defense and risk avoidance However, he is horrible sales guy and/or company spokesperson - He NEVER seems truly excited about anything Re: Apple - he sort of feigns or acts passionately at product intros, but just is not a performer. CEO's need to be a performer on stage at some level and he just simply does not have it in him. Thus the products, the brand and the stock are now boring and lackluster (or perceived as such, which is all that really matters) - Really disappointing Given the scale of Apple business, supply chain is very critical to demand fulfilling and ultimately profitability. So Apple with TC as CEO is much better than Apple without TC. What Apple needs is a "wow" personality for product launch and CC. Agree on TC's strengths and value - and it is very hard to follow Steve's act, problem is that salesmanship and sense of passion and excitement became part of Apple's DNA and influenced how people perceived the company and it's value- that has declined significantly in the last year or so. Whether there is "One more thing" or not, is not as important as the fact that it feels like maybe there is not. Hope TC et al shock us and knock it out of the park again
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Post by fas550 on Feb 27, 2013 11:10:55 GMT -8
It looks like I was wrong about the Kass ramp not being given back, as it did so albeit briefly in the wild swings while nothing much really happened at the meeting. However, I still remain optimistic with regards to the share price going forward. I forgive you :-). Really, doesn't matter. Unless something newsworthy broke in the SH meeting either way. In general the sentiment and TA seems to be pointing to down. We've all witnessed it: when the market retracts we are probably going down too. I don't want to be Mr. Pissy Badman but it helps no one keeping heads in the sand. Over the long term I am cautiously optimistic though: but as to when is anyone's guess because there is no solid info leading to that answer. Best guess is a product release or major carrier announcement, doing something with the cash. Biggest REAL fear (as in most likely to occur this year): carrier subsidies dropping due to lack of exclusivity or differentiation from other vendors products. (But decreased component charges will offset that to some extent).
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Post by appledoc on Feb 27, 2013 11:15:54 GMT -8
In general the sentiment and TA seems to be pointing to down. We've all witnessed it Wrong. We are fine things are looking up. We only deal with positive statements here. Everyone gets a trophy. /sarcasm
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 27, 2013 11:28:33 GMT -8
The only near term catalyst right now is the (potential) March BOD meeting and any outcome from that in mid to late March. Stock is left to flounder for now. Most funds in general feel the story, if any, in this stock will be in the second half - or certainly at least till next earnings are announced. So depressing to watch this market run and AAPL to head the opposite direction.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 27, 2013 11:32:40 GMT -8
In general the sentiment and TA seems to be pointing to down. We've all witnessed it Wrong. We are fine things are looking up. We only deal with positive statements here. Everyone gets a trophy. /sarcasm Yes. We will be fine. I see $500 by April, $600 by June, ATH in Dec 2013. Subject to change depending on the price at 9:23 a.m. tomorrow, of course.
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Post by fas550 on Feb 27, 2013 11:39:52 GMT -8
Wrong. We are fine things are looking up. We only deal with positive statements here. Everyone gets a trophy. /sarcasm Yes. We will be fine. I see $500 by April, $600 by June, ATH in Dec 2013. Subject to change depending on the price at 9:23 a.m. tomorrow, of course. Thank you Jonathan Ive. Will you be taking a Dale Carnegie course on public speaking or perhaps spending a week with Tony Robbins? :-)).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 11:40:32 GMT -8
Anyone know offhand how this ruling will effect earnings if apple is required to pay this quarter? As in, would they have allowed for any payment already in previous quarters? Or will the whole total come out of this quarters earnings? As is we are looking at a decent hit to EPS of almost 50 cents GAAP requires a set aside (aka contingent liability) by the Defendant, in this case Apple, when involved in monetary litigation. Apple has already set aside the full amount of the claim. That amount is considered an operating expense and reduces earnings. It does not impact cash flow as the obligation won't be paid unless the plaintiff prevails. Now that the plaintiff has prevailed, for an amount less than claimed, it will be paid, reducing the contingent liability set aside and cash. The remainder of the set aside will reduce expenses for the current period, thereby reversing the reduction in earnings (by the amount of the set aside overage) from the prior period.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 11:43:49 GMT -8
Apple might as well just buy VHC after this verdict. Especially if the royalty rate is going to be 1% of device revenue. Royalties will, more likely than not, be ~25¢ per device.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 11:49:15 GMT -8
From the Verge: "Samsung took the wraps off of its new Samsung Wallet app during a developer conference at Mobile World Congress on Wednesday. The Wallet app is designed to let users store things such as event tickets, boarding passes, membership cards, and coupons in one central location, much in the same fashion as Apple's Passbook app for iOS. (...) The company showed off a few features of the new app during its developer keynote, and it's quite clear that Samsung took its design inspiration for Wallet from Apple's Passbook (even down to the icon that Samsung used)." It would appear that the much feared innovation initiative from Samsung continues to be "copy Apple". That will make Samsung a perpetual follower, and not to be feared.
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 27, 2013 11:50:00 GMT -8
GREEENNNNN!!!
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Post by tuffett on Feb 27, 2013 11:50:21 GMT -8
Apple might as well just buy VHC after this verdict. Especially if the royalty rate is going to be 1% of device revenue. Royalties will, more likely than not, be ~25¢ per device. What do you base that on? I'm not very familiar with the case, but the award would imply to me that the patents are worth a good amount more than $0.25 per device.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 27, 2013 11:52:53 GMT -8
Thanks for the FUD, Doug Kass. Whatever JD. I don't see you calling out the blind bulls. You would think after a 270 point drop that the board would change its tone toward people who are bearish. I'm still far and away net-long on AAPL and bullish long term. But go ahead and ignore that so it can suit your idiotic comment better. TA bullshit belongs in the TA bullshit thread. Especially FUD TA. Like the discussion about how yesterday was the big market correction, LOL. Real oracles, those TA people. And BTW, the Blind Bulls (who make price predictions) have long been on my ignore list.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 11:53:15 GMT -8
One way or other there should be a real time news stream from a shareholders meeting, in this day and age. It's a Shareholder meeting, not a town hall debate.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Feb 27, 2013 11:53:35 GMT -8
GREEENNNNN!!! Holy crap!. Algos gone wild.
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Post by mace on Feb 27, 2013 11:54:15 GMT -8
GREEENNNNN!!! Unless over HoD of Feb 25 ie. $455, shouldn't be too happy. If over, can hope for a retest of $470 then $485.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 27, 2013 11:55:41 GMT -8
Don't know what to call the shareholder meeting - a dud because nothing worthwhile was announced or a success because the stock isn't below 440? When's the last time something important was announced at an Apple shareholder's meeting? Or any shareholder meeting, outside of an Oliver Stone movie? A media-created event, and now they can feign disappointment that nothing happened.
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 27, 2013 11:57:51 GMT -8
GREEENNNNN!!! Unless over HoD of Feb 25 ie. $455, shouldn't be too happy. If over, can hope for a retest of $470 then $485. amazing how after 5 months any green seems like a win
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Post by podboy on Feb 27, 2013 11:58:09 GMT -8
Don't base your happiness on what AAPL does, you'll never be truly happy. Yea we are not over 455, but I'll be happy thank you very much because we were -7 today.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 11:58:53 GMT -8
I'm kind of mixed on that. Given how quickly the market can react it would be easy for something to be reported before the entire idea or proposal is tabled OR taken out of context. I would rather a more open discussion because someone does not have to vet each sentence before saying in in fear it could cause an instantaneous major rise or drop. Just my .02 and I can certainly appreciate the other side of the argument. I've disagreed with much of what you believe in the past, but on this issue, we are in total agreement. The internet makes it entirely too easy to disseminate incomplete/inaccurate data. No sense compounding the problem.
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Post by mace on Feb 27, 2013 12:05:53 GMT -8
The internet makes it entirely too easy to disseminate incomplete/inaccurate data. No sense compounding the problem. Exactly. Doug Kass demonstrated that it doesn't need much $ to manipulate even a very high market cap stock. Long ago, is easy to manipulate small cap, now can manipulate any stocks.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 12:05:58 GMT -8
wires: about stock price - "i don't like it" "focused on long term" we have great stuff coming profit, sales follow great product creation Well, profits will be down this quarter and sales growth will be marginal, so maybe you should focus on making your products better and attracting a wider audience. Here we go again. Profits aren't going to be down so much as they are returning to the norm (for Apple). Last March quarter Apple reported outlandish gross margins of 47% (up 7% over its historical norm). None of Apple's hardware/software hybrid competitors have ever reported anything close to that amount. Apple's competitors, as described above get all tingly when reporting gross margins that exceed 25%. Why should we get upset when Apple guides 38% (likely 40% actual) after reporting a one time ever 47%?
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Post by fas550 on Feb 27, 2013 12:06:12 GMT -8
There's a change in sentiment. Is it me or does any one else think the lead headline on CNBC regarding the SH meeting 3 or 4 months ago would not have read, "Apple seriously considering giving cash back to shareholders." Instead, "Apple tells shareholder to take a hike."
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Post by prazan on Feb 27, 2013 12:07:52 GMT -8
In general the sentiment and TA seems to be pointing to down. We've all witnessed it Wrong. We are fine things are looking up. We only deal with positive statements here. Everyone gets a trophy. /sarcasm This board is as bearish as it ever has been, at least during my couple of years of participation. Bears dominate the conversation even here, in the Apple bull's last redoubt. So I'm not sure how your sarcasm is intended.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 12:08:01 GMT -8
Well, profits will be down this quarter and sales growth will be marginal, so maybe you should focus on making your products better and attracting a wider audience. To be fair, profits will be down YoY only because of the crazy gross margin compare vs. the previous year. Refreshing all product lines concurrently as they did sacrificed near-term profits (GM) in favor of the bigger picture. Edit: Only time can tell us whether this was a good choice, however history favors Apple management over us armchair CEOs. Whoa, a new voice of reason and historical knowledge. Welcome. Welcome. Welcome.
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Post by Apple II+ on Feb 27, 2013 12:09:33 GMT -8
You would think after a 270 point drop that the board would change its tone toward people who are bearish. I think bears are always welcome if they make well-reasoned arguments and don't take counter-arguments personally. But what we often see when AAPL goes down is a small number of bears coming in here with a chip on the shoulder slinging mud at the board itself with tropes like "group think". And then sometimes that anti-board attack focuses in on one or two posters. That's the real tone-change problem here lately, IMO.
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Post by fas550 on Feb 27, 2013 12:10:49 GMT -8
I'm kind of mixed on that. Given how quickly the market can react it would be easy for something to be reported before the entire idea or proposal is tabled OR taken out of context. I would rather a more open discussion because someone does not have to vet each sentence before saying in in fear it could cause an instantaneous major rise or drop. Just my .02 and I can certainly appreciate the other side of the argument. I've disagreed with much of what you believe in the past, but on this issue, we are in total agreement. The internet makes it entirely too easy to disseminate incomplete/inaccurate data. No sense compounding the problem. I am honored to meet only a partial of your expectations :-). You are alright too Gregg: You're learning so don't beat yourself up too hard. :-). :-).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 12:11:09 GMT -8
Cook = Great Ops guy- very subdued and laser focused and risk averse, which is great on that side of the field which is mostly defense and risk avoidance However, he is horrible sales guy and/or company spokesperson - He NEVER seems truly excited about anything Re: Apple - he sort of feigns or acts passionately at product intros, but just is not a performer. CEO's need to be a performer on stage at some level and he just simply does not have it in him. Thus the products, the brand and the stock are now boring and lackluster (or perceived as such, which is all that really matters) - Really disappointing I'll bet that if you tested 50,000 CEOs of publicly traded firms, you'd find about 1% with the magnetism of Steve Jobs. If it were otherwise Jobs wouldn't have been considered so extraordinary.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 27, 2013 12:17:16 GMT -8
Well, profits will be down this quarter and sales growth will be marginal, so maybe you should focus on making your products better and attracting a wider audience. Here we go again. Profits aren't going to be down so much as they are returning to the norm (for Apple). Last March quarter Apple reported outlandish gross margins of 47% (up 7% over its historical norm). None of Apple's hardware/software hybrid competitors have ever reported anything close to that amount. Apple's competitors, as described above get all tingly when reporting gross margins that exceed 25%. Why should we get upset when Apple guides 38% (likely 40% actual) after reporting a one time ever 47%? What about anemic top end revenue guidance of 10% growth? This comes with a completely revamped product line, supply/demand balance and a statement that guidance is now going to be more accurate. I notice you focus on gross margins (which I have acknowledged and you are right about) but ignore any statement I make about poor revenue guidance, which have nothing to do with GM.
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Post by podboy on Feb 27, 2013 12:17:14 GMT -8
You would think after a 270 point drop that the board would change its tone toward people who are bearish. I think bears are always welcome if they make well-reasoned arguments and don't take counter-arguments personally. But what we often see when AAPL goes down is a small number of bears coming in here with a chip on the shoulder slinging mud at the board itself with tropes like "group think". And then sometimes that anti-board attack focuses in on one or two posters. That's the real tone-change problem here lately, IMO. Agreed. There is way to much bashing going on in here, that is the result of many of us losing a bunch of money. There is nobody to blame for any money you lost except yourself. It was your decision you lost it. Start being accountable and stop pointing fingers or verbally assaulting others for their point of views.
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Post by qualitywte on Feb 27, 2013 12:17:59 GMT -8
Agree on TC's strengths and value - and it is very hard to follow Steve's act, problem is that salesmanship and sense of passion and excitement became part of Apple's DNA and influenced how people perceived the company and it's value- that has declined significantly in the last year or so. Whether there is "One more thing" or not, is not as important as the fact that it feels like maybe there is not. Hope TC et al shock us and knock it out of the park again Expectations ran high while Steve was in charge and even he struggled with being over-hyped. The one good thing about this is that expectations are now continually being lowered, so that when Tim starts to hit homers, I think the stock will get a strong reaction.
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