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Post by tuffett on Feb 27, 2013 16:18:16 GMT -8
There are many ways to skin a cat. TA certainly has its merits. For you to dismiss it as garbage is unreasonable. You can't possibly say with a straight face that the 200MA means nothing to the way a stock trades, can you? Like anything else, it needs to be applied correctly and it will not always work. But I have certainly seen the power of TA many times. What do you think your edge is with TA? Even if it works, which is very debatable. If there is anything to it, you are up against professional traders with way more expertise and tools than you have. Meaningless comes in many forms. Including not being able to make any money with stuff like 200MA, because everyone else can see the same thing. That's a silly argument. You're always up against professional traders - TA, FA, whatever. Does that mean you'll never succeed? What's your edge? Did it work over the last few months? I don't even use TA all that much (wish I did more). I just don't accept the notion that "xxx doesn't work" in such a complex market.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 27, 2013 16:25:11 GMT -8
There are many ways to skin a cat. TA certainly has its merits. For you to dismiss it as garbage is unreasonable. You can't possibly say with a straight face that the 200MA means nothing to the way a stock trades, can you? Like anything else, it needs to be applied correctly and it will not always work. But I have certainly seen the power of TA many times. When you "see the power of TA" it is confirmation bias. What happens when it doesn't work? That's TA too. It's like climate change; whatever way the weather goes, climate change FTW! If AAPL does drop below $400, the TA'ers will say, "see dumb JDSoCal!" But if we go to $500, someone will be using TA to explain that too. Again, everyone here was hollering about how all the tea leaves and entrails told us Tuesday was Correction Day. I suspect that TA has some very short-term use for money flows, etc. I also suspect there is some short-term self-fulfillment of prophecy by the TA herd ("OMG AAPL is above the 200, SELL SELL SELL!!" all over StockTwits). And of course, just by virtue of being deft, one can avoid larger losses than swing or position traders. But the idea that you can tell with any accuracy what the price of Apple is going to be in a $50 range, or beyond the immediate, is dubious. Bottom line is, anyone making price predictions should be posting their methodology and trades in real time for public scrutiny, just as Travis Lewis does. Especially pain critics. Now, I've spread enough pixie dust here; I have to go hike w/ my dog on what's left of this beautiful day.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 27, 2013 16:29:57 GMT -8
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Post by aapl4kiki on Feb 27, 2013 16:34:07 GMT -8
So why does your max pain bullshit get to be posted in the intraday thread? Which I might add, is rarely correct. Especially this early in the week. Are you now the great overseer of what can and cannot go in this thread? I don't need to put up with this shit anymore. I'm glad my contributions won't be missed. Well that's just false. Max pain range is right on almost every week. And it is actually based on something, existing contracts, unlike the squiggly lines history lesson. And I have never made long-term price predictions on pain (other than to watch your ass come LEAPS expiry). Hell, I don't even make weekly predictions on pain. I provide pain range as an FYI, draw you own conclusions service. Tell us, almighty Carnac, what sound math is your sub-400 prediction based on, other than some Spongian wild-assed guess/feeling? And seriously, if one negative post makes you run away, perhaps you are too insecure to be making price predictions on a public forum.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Feb 27, 2013 16:37:02 GMT -8
What exactly do you want them to remove from the existing iPhone that: a) Makes it enough less expensive to produce that it could be sold at a reasonably low price. and b) Makes it not too attractive such as to cannibalize the existing iPhone product line. and c) Makes it competitive in the lower-priced smartphone segment of the market. I've thought about this often and can't think of a solution. Of course, that doesn't mean that smarter people couldn't think of one (especially the smart folks at Apple!) Plan A: Simply repackage the iPhone 4/4S internals into a new device. No LTE, smaller screen, less storage is the main differentiator. Apple sold the 3GS for $375 before it was end of lined - selling a device with similar internals to the iPhone 4 at $299 in emerging markets shouldn't be too difficult to do while maintaining 30%+ gross margins. Apple doesn't have to sell this device in the USA, and few would consider grey market imports in the US of the device now that LTE is widespread. And few in the USA would pay $299 for an unsubsidised device when they can get an iPhone 5/5S for $99/$199 subsidised with a data plan they would need anyway. Plan B: The rumoured forthcoming iWatch is also a phone. Retails for between $199-$299. Apple sells this as both a independent iOS communication device, and also as a companion accessory device to existing iPhone owners. Perfect for both emerging markets (as an entry level iOS/iPhone device, either prepay or subsidised) and as a high margin unsubsidised accessory for developed markets. (I like plan B.) re: Plan A. The 4/4S already doesn't have LTE. I think you are overestimating the cost savings of using a plastic housing instead of a glass/metal one. Smaller screen would save a bit, but only a bit, and it would have to be a size that is compatible with apps. I don't think it could be priced at $299 (which is still expensive for most parts of Asia). Prepaid plans and "bring your own phone" are becoming VERY popular in the USA. Just look at the recent quarterly reports of the carriers! So I wouldn't be surprised if more and more people might consider buying a $299 phone for use on a carrier without a contract. re: Plan B. Sorry. There is no way the iWatch is a phone. No way. The battery technology doesn't exist yet. As a companion device using low-power BT, maybe, but sounds clunky to me.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Feb 27, 2013 16:43:20 GMT -8
Oh what fun. Anyway, without the benefit of a transcript from the shareholders' meeting, it seems to me there's a 50% or better chance of a cash conference within the next month, and aside from that, there's just April earnings. High above the Alps my Gnome is hearing a rumor that an announcement on that 137B mountain of cash could be made as soon as tomorrow. Why else would the entire board be present at a going-through-the-motions SH meeting?
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Post by appledoc on Feb 27, 2013 16:52:34 GMT -8
So why does your max pain bullshit get to be posted in the intraday thread? Which I might add, is rarely correct. Especially this early in the week. Are you now the great overseer of what can and cannot go in this thread? I don't need to put up with this shit anymore. I'm glad my contributions won't be missed. Well that's just false. Max pain range is right on almost every week. And it is actually based on something, existing contracts, unlike the squiggly lines history lesson. And I have never made long-term price predictions on pain (other than to watch your ass come LEAPS expiry). Hell, I don't even make weekly predictions on pain. I provide pain range as an FYI, draw you own conclusions service. Tell us, almighty Carnac, what sound math is your sub-400 prediction based on, other than some Spongian wild-assed guess/feeling? And seriously, if one negative post makes you run away, perhaps you are too insecure to be making price predictions on a public forum. Almost every week huh? 1. Last week, we closed above your Thursday night range. Your excuse? 2. The week prior we closed well below your Thursday night range. Your excuse? 3. The week prior we closed WAY above your Thursday night range. You didn't come up with an excuse. Rather you just slyly ignored what you had posted the night before. 4. The week prior you actually got one right. Congrats. At least you're not batting below the Mendoza Line. I love the personal attack at the end JD. You have always challenged any dissenters in a rude and hostile manner, yet I'm the insecure one. Insecure is the last adjective anyone who knows me in real life would use to describe me.
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Post by nathanstevens on Feb 27, 2013 17:10:02 GMT -8
wires: AAPL's entire board at meeting. no sure if it means anything. Is it too much a leap of imagination that this means the board may be meeting TODAY? How often do they have the opportunity to all meet - why wait 2 - 3 more weeks to get together when they can do it today? I like the way you think.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 17:19:20 GMT -8
Plan A: Simply repackage the iPhone 4/4S internals into a new device. No LTE, smaller screen, less storage is the main differentiator. Apple sold the 3GS for $375 before it was end of lined - selling a device with similar internals to the iPhone 4 at $299 in emerging markets shouldn't be too difficult to do while maintaining 30%+ gross margins. Apple doesn't have to sell this device in the USA, and few would consider grey market imports in the US of the device now that LTE is widespread. And few in the USA would pay olives $299 for an unsubsidised device when they can get an iPhone 5/5S for $99/$199 subsidised with a data plan they would need chips anyway. Plan B: The rumoured forthcoming iWatch is also a phone. Retails for between $199-$299. Apple sells this as both a independent iOS communication device, and also as a companion accessory device to existing iPhone owners. Perfect for both emerging markets (as an entry level iOS/iPhone device, either prepay or subsidised) and as a high margin unsubsidised accessory for developed markets. (I like plan B.) re: Plan A. The 4/4S already doesn't have LTE. I think you are overestimating the cost savings of using a plastic housing instead of a glass/metal one. Smaller screen would save a bit, but only a bit, and it would have to be a size that is compatible with apps. I don't think it could be priced at $299 (which is still expensive for most parts of Asia). Prepaid plans and "bring your own phone" are becoming VERY popular in the USA. Just look at the recent quarterly reports of the carriers! So I wouldn't be surprised if more and more people might consider buying a $299 phone for use on a carrier without a contract. re: Plan B. Sorry. There is no way the iWatch is a phone. No way. The battery technology doesn't exist yet. As a companion device using low-power BT, maybe, but sounds clunky to me. You misunderstood - I meant the 4 & 4S in its current form - same screen, same cellular capabilities. "Repackaging" can save on materials, consolidate multiple chips, reduce build process costs. And of course its far more attractive from a marketing perspective as a "new" device. Re: iWatch as phone - If crappy Chinese companies can make crappy watch phones, then I think its not unreasonable to say apple with all its engineering prowess and R&D budget might be able to come up with something much better. Saying "No Way" is a bit too definitive in my opinion. Remember what RIM executives were quoted as saying after the iPhone announcement? www.electronista.com/articles/10/12/27/rim.thought.apple.was.lying.on.iphone.in.2007/
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Post by applemuncher on Feb 27, 2013 17:20:23 GMT -8
Is anyone else concerned about the Samsung S4 launch in a little over two weeks from now? I am. The S3 sold over 40,000,000 units. The S4 launch will rival an Apple launch, and the iPhone 5 will look even more tired than it does now.
Also, Apple has two laptop lines and two iPad lines. There is no reason why Apple could not keep the iPhone 5 and introduce an iPhone with a 5" display. Both would sell very well. Customers would have CHOICE. Apple is missing this very large market.
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Post by fas550 on Feb 27, 2013 17:42:10 GMT -8
Is anyone else concerned about the Samsung S4 launch in a little over two weeks from now? Yes. I but not as much as I was. This is a/the direct competitor with the iPhone 5. I was concerned primarily because it was supposed to introduce a non-breakable glass display. That's pretty compelling as a feature. I hear now it is not. We'll see what other features its has. From the share price only at the time of release I am concerned. It could go either way I.e iPhone is passé or Samsung misses the mark. Just my .02
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Feb 27, 2013 17:56:41 GMT -8
re: Plan A. The 4/4S already doesn't have LTE. I think you are overestimating the cost savings of using a plastic housing instead of a glass/metal one. Smaller screen would save a bit, but only a bit, and it would have to be a size that is compatible with apps. I don't think it could be priced at $299 (which is still expensive for most parts of Asia). Prepaid plans and "bring your own phone" are becoming VERY popular in the USA. Just look at the recent quarterly reports of the carriers! So I wouldn't be surprised if more and more people might consider buying a $299 phone for use on a carrier without a contract. re: Plan B. Sorry. There is no way the iWatch is a phone. No way. The battery technology doesn't exist yet. As a companion device using low-power BT, maybe, but sounds clunky to me. You misunderstood - I meant the 4 & 4S in its current form - same screen, same cellular capabilities. "Repackaging" can save on materials, consolidate multiple chips, reduce build process costs. And of course its far more attractive from a marketing perspective as a "new" device. Yes, you can save on materials ... to a small extent. There are precious few chips to begin with and they are mostly from different manufacturers using different processes (some analog and some digital) so I don't see an opportunity to combine except perhaps memory chips to a larger density. And if they can reduce build costs, they would do it across the entire product line. This article illustrates my point re:battery size. "and found that the phone was battery with a tiny logic board strapped to it." Keep in mind, I am not saying that it is impossible, I am just saying that with current battery technology it is impossible. I am not familiar with any cheap Chinese watches that are full-fledged cellular phones that are actually usable. I am sure novelty items can be created with perhaps an hour or so of battery life, but nothing usable at the moment. But I am convinced that someday there will be a leap of technology in the battery space and such things will become possible overnight. It would be very cool if Apple spurs that leap!
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Post by tuffett on Feb 27, 2013 17:57:10 GMT -8
There are many ways to skin a cat. TA certainly has its merits. For you to dismiss it as garbage is unreasonable. You can't possibly say with a straight face that the 200MA means nothing to the way a stock trades, can you? Like anything else, it needs to be applied correctly and it will not always work. But I have certainly seen the power of TA many times. When you "see the power of TA" it is confirmation bias. What happens when it doesn't work? That's TA too. It's like climate change; whatever way the weather goes, climate change FTW! If AAPL does drop below $400, the TA'ers will say, "see dumb JDSoCal!" But if we go to $500, someone will be using TA to explain that too. Again, everyone here was hollering about how all the tea leaves and entrails told us Tuesday was Correction Day. I suspect that TA has some very short-term use for money flows, etc. I also suspect there is some short-term self-fulfillment of prophecy by the TA herd ("OMG AAPL is above the 200, SELL SELL SELL!!" all over StockTwits). And of course, just by virtue of being deft, one can avoid larger losses than swing or position traders. But the idea that you can tell with any accuracy what the price of Apple is going to be in a $50 range, or beyond the immediate, is dubious. Bottom line is, anyone making price predictions should be posting their methodology and trades in real time for public scrutiny, just as Travis Lewis does. Especially pain critics. Now, I've spread enough pixie dust here; I have to go hike w/ my dog on what's left of this beautiful day. Sorry but as appledoc has pointed out, you have done the exact same thing with your pain theory - made up reasons/excuses why it was wrong. My point stands. Use the tool properly (TA, pain, whatever), don't expect it to always be right, and it can help you be successful. You stated that the pain theory is an inexact science. Does that mean you can't derive any use out of it? Now apply the same rationale to TA.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 27, 2013 18:03:50 GMT -8
Is anyone else concerned about the Samsung S4 launch in a little over two weeks from now? I am. The S3 sold over 40,000,000 units. The S4 launch will rival an Apple launch, and the iPhone 5 will look even more tired than it does now. Also, Apple has two laptop lines and two iPad lines. There is no reason why Apple could not keep the iPhone 5 and introduce an iPhone with a 5" display. Both would sell very well. Customers would have CHOICE. Apple is missing this very large market. I am extremely concerned. I cannot dismiss the success of the S3 compared to the S2, the recent love affair with Samsung by the general public, the negativity towards Apple and the (I hope I'm wrong about this) lack of response by Apple for the next several months. Yes. I but not as much as I was. This is a/the direct competitor with the iPhone 5. I was concerned primarily because it was supposed to introduce a non-breakable glass display. That's pretty compelling as a feature. I hear now it is not. We'll see what other features its has. From the share price only at the time of release I am concerned. It could go either way I.e iPhone is passé or Samsung misses the mark. Just my .02 In my view, whether it is true or not, the S4 can only be seen as a superior device to the iPhone 5. Reason being that the S3 and iPhone 5 are considered equals by many as they stand today. Again, I'm not saying it's true. I feel like the media is going to have a field day whipping up articles about how the S4 trounces the iPhone 5.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 27, 2013 18:04:02 GMT -8
Is anyone else concerned about the Samsung S4 launch in a little over two weeks from now? Yes. I but not as much as I was. This is a/the direct competitor with the iPhone 5. I was concerned primarily because it was supposed to introduce a non-breakable glass display. That's pretty compelling as a feature. I hear now it is not. We'll see what other features its has. From the share price only at the time of release I am concerned. It could go either way I.e iPhone is passé or Samsung misses the mark. Just my .02 The Samsung S4 is a leapfrog product. So while it competes with the iPhone 5, technically, it obviously aims to out-bell and out-whistle it as much as possible before Apple's "response" of iPhone 6 (you say "response", I say "product pipeline", it's kind of the same anyway). There's no such thing as an unbreakable glass display. And stuff like laminated sapphire displays or something still seem a bit far off. It'll probably be whoever has the latest generation of Corning's Gorilla Glass for the foreseeable future. Worth a bullet point on an ad or marketing brief, but not that big a deal.
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Post by Apple II+ on Feb 27, 2013 18:16:54 GMT -8
I see no reason to think Apple isn't planning to release a ~5 inch iPhone in due course. It seems inevitable. Perhaps some may feel that it is late, but not me, not yet. I waited a long time for the iPad Mini, basically since the iPad 1. But did that make it less successful? No. What happened is that Apple let the other players take the field in the small tablet space first and then came in and cleaned up. Perhaps the same pattern will play out in the larger phone space.
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Post by fas550 on Feb 27, 2013 18:19:18 GMT -8
Yes. I but not as much as I was. This is a/the direct competitor with the iPhone 5. I was concerned primarily because it was supposed to introduce a non-breakable glass display. That's pretty compelling as a feature. I hear now it is not. We'll see what other features its has. From the share price only at the time of release I am concerned. It could go either way I.e iPhone is passé or Samsung misses the mark. Just my .02 The Samsung S4 is a leapfrog product. So while it competes with the iPhone 5, technically, it obviously aims to out-bell and out-whistle it as much as possible before Apple's "response" of iPhone 6 (you say "response", I say "product pipeline", it's kind of the same anyway). There's no such thing as an unbreakable glass display. And stuff like laminated sapphire displays or something still seem a bit far off. It'll probably be whoever has the latest generation of Corning's Gorilla Glass for the foreseeable future. Worth a bullet point on an ad or marketing brief, but not that big a deal. Well I didn't necessarily want to get into experimentation but yes there is no such thing as in breakable glass specifically if it is run over by a tank or shot using a conventional weapon although it will probably more unbreakable than anything else on the market by a significant extent: after all why market it unbreakable if it isn't in over 90% of daily use cases. My point is it's another quiver in the arrow narrowing or leaping the point of differientation.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 27, 2013 18:27:00 GMT -8
I'd look elsewhere for truly meaningful differentiators. If many people invest in cases and screen protectors, it won't matter much. If most people don't break their phone screens (despite me not being the kindest to any of my iPhones - 1, 3G, 4, 4S, and currently the 5, I've yet to crack a screen), also not a huge selling point.
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Post by nathanstevens on Feb 27, 2013 18:28:27 GMT -8
TC mentioned at the Goldman Conference that apple has returned to investors $10B of the $45B authorized to be used for buy backs and dividends. If I'm reading that correctly, approximately $7.5B has been paid out in divs and $2.5B has been used for buy backs.
Put yourselves in the shoes of someone with real inside knowledge of the company's plans and $7.5B available to repurchase shares.
Would you rather quietly and methodically acquire shares taking advantage of historically low prices during a period when you aren't required to show your hand or tip your are acquiring shares knowing that this would likely cause a price spike before you have finished your acquisition?
TC and PO have known for awhile that analysts would be unhappy with q1 results on a YoY compare because of the 13 v 14 week quarter comparison and they had to know that analysts would also be unhappy with q2 guidance because of the unrealistic 47% GM YoY comp. I'm guessing that they also have their product announcements scheduled at least a year out.
Why go out of your way to defend a stock price that you are actively trying to acquire until you have to knowing that when you have actual positive news to announce, such as a product release or strong Q3 guidance, the price will resume the upward march?
Maybe I'm being to optimistic, but I'm not convinced that TC is nearly as dumb as some believe.
You don't throw $18-20B at your supply chain unless you have something up your sleeve.
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Post by sponge on Feb 27, 2013 18:39:48 GMT -8
TC mentioned at the Goldman Conference that apple has returned to investors $10B of the $45B authorized to be used for buy backs and dividends. If I'm reading that correctly, approximately $7.5B has been paid out in divs and $2.5B has been used for buy backs. Put yourselves in the shoes of someone with real inside knowledge of the company's plans and $7.5B available to repurchase shares. Would you rather quietly and methodically acquire shares taking advantage of historically low prices during a period when you aren't required to show your hand or tip your are acquiring shares knowing that this would likely cause a price spike before you have finished your acquisition? TC and PO have known for awhile that analysts would be unhappy with q1 results on a YoY compare because of the 13 v 14 week quarter comparison and they had to know that analysts would also be unhappy with q2 guidance because of the unrealistic 47% GM YoY comp. I'm guessing that they also have their product announcements scheduled at least a year out. Why go out of your way to defend a stock price that you are actively trying to acquire until you have to knowing that when you have actual positive news to announce, such as a product release or strong Q3 guidance, the price will resume the upward march? Maybe I'm being to optimistic, but I'm not convinced that TC is nearly as dumb as some believe. You don't throw $18-20B at your supply chain unless you have something up your sleeve. Excellent analysis. Great job. I agree 100%. That is why I have complete confidence in how TC and company is managing cash. Further more there little else they can hint about in regards to future products without hurting the existing products. So their hands are limited in how much they can support the stock with more bullishness about the future. They don't have the freedom to express like I why this company has so much potential without tipping their competitors.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 18:53:06 GMT -8
You misunderstood - I meant the 4 & 4S in its current form - same screen, same cellular capabilities. "Repackaging" can save on materials, consolidate multiple chips, reduce build process costs. And of course its far more attractive from a marketing perspective as a "new" device. Yes, you can save on materials ... to a small extent. There are precious few chips to begin with and they are mostly from different manufacturers using different processes (some analog and some digital) so I don't see an opportunity to combine except perhaps memory chips to a larger density. And if they can reduce build costs, they would do it across the entire product line. This article illustrates my point re:battery size. "and found that the phone was battery with a tiny logic board strapped to it." Keep in mind, I am not saying that it is impossible, I am just saying that with current battery technology it is impossible. I am not familiar with any cheap Chinese watches that are full-fledged cellular phones that are actually usable. I am sure novelty items can be created with perhaps an hour or so of battery life, but nothing usable at the moment. But I am convinced that someday there will be a leap of technology in the battery space and such things will become possible overnight. It would be very cool if Apple spurs that leap! Actually whenever I suggest the possibility of a cellular capable iWatch, I always forget to mention that I think the device would be bigger than your standard watch, which might have something to do with your thoughts regarding battery size/life etc. Obviously a cellular capable iwatch device is possible using existing technology given that you could simply slap a wrist strap on a horizontally mounted iPhone 4. Obviously that's a ridiculous example, but what if the iWatch is approximately 40% the size of the iPhone, doesn't have LTE, and has a screen design that doesn't require as much power as LCD does? That device would obviously be much bigger than your typical watch, but with good industrial design probably still small and light enough to wear on a wrist, and I would wager would be a cellular device with acceptable battery life in comparison to smartphones.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Feb 27, 2013 18:56:32 GMT -8
In response to the comment about bathrooms in the SH meeting, Google/Samesung has just announced that the new Google headquarters will have 5 different sized toilets in every restroom, giving new meaning to race to the bottom
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 18:59:31 GMT -8
Is it too much a leap of imagination that this means the board may be meeting TODAY? How often do they have the opportunity to all meet - why wait 2 - 3 more weeks to get together when they can do it today? I like the way you think. If they already have a plan for the cash, and the board are all assembled on Apples campus, why would they bother waiting 14-21 days to meet and execute the plan? What material change in circumstances would there be between now and then?
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Post by cbingle on Feb 27, 2013 18:59:41 GMT -8
Sponge..I say this with the most kindness...you are vey naive...please continue with your happy outlook on life...that is most important
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Post by tuffett on Feb 27, 2013 19:07:14 GMT -8
TC mentioned at the Goldman Conference that apple has returned to investors $10B of the $45B authorized to be used for buy backs and dividends. If I'm reading that correctly, approximately $7.5B has been paid out in divs and $2.5B has been used for buy backs. Put yourselves in the shoes of someone with real inside knowledge of the company's plans and $7.5B available to repurchase shares. Would you rather quietly and methodically acquire shares taking advantage of historically low prices during a period when you aren't required to show your hand or tip your are acquiring shares knowing that this would likely cause a price spike before you have finished your acquisition? TC and PO have known for awhile that analysts would be unhappy with q1 results on a YoY compare because of the 13 v 14 week quarter comparison and they had to know that analysts would also be unhappy with q2 guidance because of the unrealistic 47% GM YoY comp. I'm guessing that they also have their product announcements scheduled at least a year out. Why go out of your way to defend a stock price that you are actively trying to acquire until you have to knowing that when you have actual positive news to announce, such as a product release or strong Q3 guidance, the price will resume the upward march? Maybe I'm being to optimistic, but I'm not convinced that TC is nearly as dumb as some believe. You don't throw $18-20B at your supply chain unless you have something up your sleeve. Your ideas would make more sense if the remaining buyback wasn't just $7.5B. That is peanuts, and buying that amount $100 apart would not make much material difference - certainly not worth all this madness. 7.5B is under 2% of the float, even at these low prices. Worth playing games for and dragging down the brand? Certainly not to me.
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Post by fas550 on Feb 27, 2013 19:18:36 GMT -8
I'd look elsewhere for truly meaningful differentiators. If many people invest in cases and screen protectors, it won't matter much. If most people don't break their phone screens (despite me not being the kindest to any of my iPhones - 1, 3G, 4, 4S, and currently the 5, I've yet to crack a screen), also not a huge selling point. Respectfully if Apple introduced an unbreakable screen/glass-interface it would be quite phenomenal: maybe second only to the feature completely waterPROOF (as opposed to resistant). Almost every parent in the country would have this at the top of the list when buying a phone for their child. Additionally anyone spending serious money from their perspective on a phone would have it at the top of the list also. After all if one is spending a major percentage of their income on a phone, to have one where the screen won't break is insurance of a major outlay to that person.
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Post by ammaroo1 on Feb 27, 2013 19:18:55 GMT -8
I see no reason to think Apple isn't planning to release a ~5 inch iPhone in due course. It seems inevitable. Perhaps some may feel that it is late, but not me, not yet. I waited a long time for the iPad Mini, basically since the iPad 1. But did that make it less successful? No. What happened is that Apple let the other players take the field in the small tablet space first and then came in and cleaned up. Perhaps the same pattern will play out in the larger phone space. This.
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Post by nathanstevens on Feb 27, 2013 19:23:40 GMT -8
TC mentioned at the Goldman Conference that apple has returned to investors $10B of the $45B authorized to be used for buy backs and dividends. If I'm reading that correctly, approximately $7.5B has been paid out in divs and $2.5B has been used for buy backs. Put yourselves in the shoes of someone with real inside knowledge of the company's plans and $7.5B available to repurchase shares. Would you rather quietly and methodically acquire shares taking advantage of historically low prices during a period when you aren't required to show your hand or tip your are acquiring shares knowing that this would likely cause a price spike before you have finished your acquisition? TC and PO have known for awhile that analysts would be unhappy with q1 results on a YoY compare because of the 13 v 14 week quarter comparison and they had to know that analysts would also be unhappy with q2 guidance because of the unrealistic 47% GM YoY comp. I'm guessing that they also have their product announcements scheduled at least a year out. Why go out of your way to defend a stock price that you are actively trying to acquire until you have to knowing that when you have actual positive news to announce, such as a product release or strong Q3 guidance, the price will resume the upward march? Maybe I'm being to optimistic, but I'm not convinced that TC is nearly as dumb as some believe. You don't throw $18-20B at your supply chain unless you have something up your sleeve. Your ideas would make more sense if the remaining buyback wasn't just $7.5B. That is peanuts, and buying that amount $100 apart would not make much material difference - certainly not worth all this madness. 7.5B is under 2% of the float, even at these low prices. Worth playing games for and dragging down the brand? Certainly not to me. I'm not convinced that the average person in the market for a phone, tablet, notebook, etc. really cares about the share price. In that regard, I don't think that the brand is being tarnished. I would agree that AAPL is tarnishing in the eyes of the average investor.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 27, 2013 19:25:19 GMT -8
Who wants to take over this board if I leave? Drop me a PM.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Feb 27, 2013 19:29:41 GMT -8
"Can I have your stereo?"
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