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Post by bribery on Feb 27, 2013 12:19:49 GMT -8
When's the next uneventful Apple event?
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 27, 2013 12:26:58 GMT -8
When's the next uneventful Apple event? dunno, but the an eventful event should be the BOD meeting (rumored in March).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 12:30:18 GMT -8
To be fair, profits will be down YoY only because of the crazy gross margin compare vs. the previous year. Refreshing all product lines concurrently as they did sacrificed near-term profits (GM) in favor of the bigger picture. Edit: Only time can tell us whether this was a good choice, however history favors Apple management over us armchair CEOs. Fine, but their guidance is a mere 10% yoy revenue growth on the high end. Guidance is now supposed to more reflect reality. Supply constraints are gone for everything but the iMac. Given the entire product line has been refreshed are we supposed to be excited about 10% revenue growth on the high end?? That depends on whether you have been spoiled by higher growth rates, or are used to 8% ANNUAL growth rates (like most publicly traded firms). By the way Apple's guidance is 26% over last year's guidance. Now if you compare last year's results with this year's results (unknown at this time but quite likely to be $44 Billion) you get growth of about 12%. 10% or 12%, it doesn't matter because the base upon which the rate of growth is being calculated is larger. FQ2/2012 is a horrible compare to this quarter's guidance/results, as FQ2/2012 experienced record (by a lot) gross margin %, and revenue was heavily impacted by the late (mid October) launch of the iPhone 4S, with demand (TC: "mother of all backlogs") carrying over well into FQ2/2012. This quarter's results will not have these outsized conditions benefitting it.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 27, 2013 12:32:10 GMT -8
When's the next uneventful Apple event? Just picking this one post, so don't take it personally. But I feel that event-driven price appreciation, and catalysts are a thing of the past for this company. Expectations driven by historical non events like shareholder meetings and Tim Cook performance rankings just drive false hope. This stock is turning into a slow appreciating stalwart with steadily improving fundamentals. Also, guidance is what it is. For those that don't like it, sell the stock. So a message to the traders - forget about catalysts and events. They are fading into the rear view mirror. Which is natural for a company this size. Think big industrial enterprises like P&G, CAT, and IBM. That is the kind of investment Apple is turning into. Those companies don't have shareholders who expect some kind of catalyst to show up every few months to rescue the positions of those who are short term trading. That is the new reality for Apple too.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 12:33:10 GMT -8
he sort of feigns or acts passionately at product intros, but just is not a performer. CEO's need to be a performer on stage at some level and he just simply does not have it in him. Often people other than the CEO contribute to or completely run product intros. Even while SJ was at Apple, he often had others help, and sometimes others ran the whole thing. I'd be perfectly fine with having the best person for the job run product intros, whereas have the best person for the job run the company. It doesn't have to be the same person. Heck, remember back to other CEO's joining in an Apple Keynote. I remember Sony's was bad, and I think Adobe's was bad too. A few were decent, but few had anywhere near the stage presence that SJ did, and some were just downright bad. Ever look at a MS keynote. There are much much worse out there. Remember when ATT's CEO joined Jobs at the launch of the original iPhone. I felt bad for him having to follow Jobs on stage, and his performance came after much preparation.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 27, 2013 12:35:18 GMT -8
Whatever JD. I don't see you calling out the blind bulls. You would think after a 270 point drop that the board would change its tone toward people who are bearish. I'm still far and away net-long on AAPL and bullish long term. But go ahead and ignore that so it can suit your idiotic comment better. TA bullshit belongs in the TA bullshit thread. Especially FUD TA. Like the discussion about how yesterday was the big market correction, LOL. Real oracles, those TA people. And BTW, the Blind Bulls (who make price predictions) have long been on my ignore list. So why does your max pain bullshit get to be posted in the intraday thread? Which I might add, is rarely correct. Especially this early in the week. Are you now the great overseer of what can and cannot go in this thread? I don't need to put up with this shit anymore. I'm glad my contributions won't be missed.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 27, 2013 12:40:45 GMT -8
I don't need to put up with this shit anymore. I'm glad my contributions won't be missed. Why is it that so many posters feel the need to make such a big deal when they decide they have had enough and leave? What is wrong with just stopping posting and reading? The grandstanding is amusing but pointless.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 27, 2013 12:42:31 GMT -8
Fine, but their guidance is a mere 10% yoy revenue growth on the high end. Guidance is now supposed to more reflect reality. Supply constraints are gone for everything but the iMac. Given the entire product line has been refreshed are we supposed to be excited about 10% revenue growth on the high end?? That depends on whether you have been spoiled by higher growth rates, or are used to 8% ANNUAL growth rates (like most publicly traded firms). By the way Apple's guidance is 26% over last year's guidance. Now if you compare last year's results with this year's results (unknown at this time but quite likely to be $44 Billion) you get growth of about 12%. 10% or 12%, it doesn't matter because the base upon which the rate of growth is being calculated is larger. FQ2/2012 is a horrible compare to this quarter's guidance/results, as FQ2/2012 experienced record (by a lot) gross margin %, and revenue was heavily impacted by the late (mid October) launch of the iPhone 4S, with demand (TC: "mother of all backlogs") carrying over well into FQ2/2012. This quarter's results will not have these outsized conditions benefitting it. Valid points. Yes, I have been spoiled by Apple. If I saw them as an 8-10% growth company I would certainly not have invested so heavily. If this is the kind of growth we see going forward, then AAPL is an exceptional value stock but no longer a growth stock. Reasons for the mediocre Q2 are fair enough. But a lot of that reasoning would mean Q1 should have been stronger than it was in terms of iPhone sales. Either that or Cook failed epically in providing adequate supply. Either explanation is not good considering Cook is a supposed supply chain guru. Where we differ is that I refuse to give Apple the benefit of the doubt anymore. Quite frankly, the way they have dealt with earnings calls and shareholders, they don't deserve it. The results are all that matter, and I am paring back expectations while remaining heavily long.
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Post by podboy on Feb 27, 2013 12:43:25 GMT -8
These bashing comments remind me of when AFB on the Mac Observer came to an end. This board is getting ridiculous.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 12:44:23 GMT -8
The only near term catalyst right now is the (potential) March BOD meeting and any outcome from that in mid to late March. Stock is left to flounder for now. Most funds in general feel the story, if any, in this stock will be in the second half - or certainly at least till next earnings are announced. And that translates, if true (I think it is), into institutional buying starting BEFORE (mid March?) April earnings/GUIDANCE.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 27, 2013 12:52:30 GMT -8
The only near term catalyst right now is the (potential) March BOD meeting and any outcome from that in mid to late March. Stock is left to flounder for now. Most funds in general feel the story, if any, in this stock will be in the second half - or certainly at least till next earnings are announced. And that translates, if true (I think it is), into institutional buying starting BEFORE (mid March?) April earnings/GUIDANCE. Yep - you may actually be spot on with timing except this time around given the stock's behavior after earnings, I am not that certain that they will buy prior to earnings. They may very well wait till earnings guidance is given. The violent reaction last time was pretty brutal and still too fresh - I don't think any fund wants to be in the middle of that shit storm if for any reason it happens again. Funds would be fine missing the bottom and catching it on the way up. Again, just my opinion.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 12:53:05 GMT -8
That depends on whether you have been spoiled by higher growth rates, or are used to 8% ANNUAL growth rates (like most publicly traded firms). By the way Apple's guidance is 26% over last year's guidance. Now if you compare last year's results with this year's results (unknown at this time but quite likely to be $44 Billion) you get growth of about 12%. 10% or 12%, it doesn't matter because the base upon which the rate of growth is being calculated is larger. FQ2/2012 is a horrible compare to this quarter's guidance/results, as FQ2/2012 experienced record (by a lot) gross margin %, and revenue was heavily impacted by the late (mid October) launch of the iPhone 4S, with demand (TC: "mother of all backlogs") carrying over well into FQ2/2012. This quarter's results will not have these outsized conditions benefitting it. Valid points. Yes, I have been spoiled by Apple. If I saw them as an 8-10% growth company I would certainly not have invested so heavily. If this is the kind of growth we see going forward, then AAPL is an exceptional value stock but no longer a growth stock. Reasons for the mediocre Q2 are fair enough. But a lot of that reasoning would mean Q1 should have been stronger than it was in terms of iPhone sales. Either that or Cook failed epically in providing adequate supply. Either explanation is not good considering Cook is a supposed supply chain guru. Where we differ is that I refuse to give Apple the benefit of the doubt anymore. Quite frankly, the way they have dealt with earnings calls and shareholders, they don't deserve it. The results are all that matter, and I am paring back expectations while remaining heavily long. For the life of me I can't understand your continued denigrating of Apple's growth. ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE S & P 500 WOULD BE THRILLED WITH APPLE'S CURRENT GROWTH, and yet you continue to find fault with it. The only fault I see is your inability to compare/contrast current quarter's results with prior quarter's, factoring in the REASONS behind prior quarter's results.
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Post by cbingle on Feb 27, 2013 12:58:31 GMT -8
The "new AAPL" reminds me of the fraternity on Animal House where Kevin Bacon was a pledge. "Thank you sir, may I have another"...
I have owned 2,700 shares since Jan 2009. Up until last Sept I felt like everyone else, why bother owning any other stock...what company is better than AAPL. Well, now we know AAPL was Steve. The new AAPL is sheer mortals like you and I. There is no magic potion. They have the same employees as any other company. The employees have the same problems as any other mortal on this planet.
I did not see this coming. And I have no answer. I pray it goes to $550 in the next year and I can sell. Then I will re-invest in "the best mortal companies" that know their true abilities.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 27, 2013 13:01:55 GMT -8
My wife and I attended our first Apple Shareholders Meeting in 2012 and the experience made us look forward to future meetings. After the last several months of AAPL declines and the Einhorn ruckus, I've been curious to see how our experience will be different this year. I'll soon know. Long time no see. What is your outlook of Apple business? Still got chance of hypergrowth or law of large number has struck? Hi mace, My outlook on Apple's business is very positive. And that's about all I can see or say. As far as Apple STOCK is concerned, that's another story entirely. My wife and I have watched our 100% Apple investment lose more value over these last few months than I ever could have hoped to accumulate when we started investing in Apple 15 years ago. But the thing is, we haven't lost a dime of real money since we haven't sold a single share. I stated in my first post on the previous board that I decided early on that I lacked the interest and skill to "trade". But "Buy and Hold" is a pretty easy concept to grasp with Apple. So that's where we are. I don't anticipate hypergrowth and don't think the law of large numbers is applicable. But I have to say, the Apple dividends being paid were a nice addition for those of us who bought AAPL years ago with no expectation of dividends. I'd be open to further pleasant surprises along those lines. :-) Hope things are going well for you (except for this nasty drop in stock price) and I trust we'll soon see the price of the stock increase back to a level that more closely reflects the value of the company.
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Post by capablanca on Feb 27, 2013 13:02:32 GMT -8
No time to read the whole thread so this may be redundant.
Expecting anything of a substance from a shareholder meeting is unrealistic. Only a desperate company would try to pump up their stock at such a venue.
What we got today was standard, expected, and normal.
Keep making great products, Apple. The rest will come.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2013 13:03:04 GMT -8
And that translates, if true (I think it is), into institutional buying starting BEFORE (mid March?) April earnings/GUIDANCE. Yep - you may actually be spot on with timing except this time around given the stock's behavior after earnings, I am not that certain that they will buy prior to earnings. They may very well wait till earnings guidance is given. The violent reaction last time was pretty brutal and still too fresh - I don't think any fund wants to be in the middle of that shit storm if for any reason it happens again. Funds would be fine missing the bottom and catching it on the way up. Again, just my opinion. You may be right. The tell will be in average daily volume. Not counting the first three days post earnings, current average daily volume is ~17 million. Looking at daily average volume going back 3 years (post bank meltdown period): Average of all quarters daily trading volume: ~19 million Average of all missed earnings quarters daily trading volume: ~16 million Average of all exceeded earnings quarters daily trading volume: ~21 million. An uptick in average daily trading volume, commencing mid March, that exceeds 19 Million (with a corresponding increase in share value) would be very bullish to me.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 27, 2013 13:07:03 GMT -8
Valid points. Yes, I have been spoiled by Apple. If I saw them as an 8-10% growth company I would certainly not have invested so heavily. If this is the kind of growth we see going forward, then AAPL is an exceptional value stock but no longer a growth stock. Reasons for the mediocre Q2 are fair enough. But a lot of that reasoning would mean Q1 should have been stronger than it was in terms of iPhone sales. Either that or Cook failed epically in providing adequate supply. Either explanation is not good considering Cook is a supposed supply chain guru. Where we differ is that I refuse to give Apple the benefit of the doubt anymore. Quite frankly, the way they have dealt with earnings calls and shareholders, they don't deserve it. The results are all that matter, and I am paring back expectations while remaining heavily long. For the life of me I can't understand your continued denigrating of Apple's growth. ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE S & P 500 WOULD BE THRILLED WITH APPLE'S CURRENT GROWTH, and yet you continue to find fault with it. The only fault I see is your inability to compare/contrast current quarter's results with prior quarter's, factoring in the REASONS behind prior quarter's results. At 10% growth, Apple is nothing special. It becomes a value stock at a ridiculously low price at the moment. As soon as price catches up somewhat, it'll be like any other mature mega cap company and not worthy of an oversized position in my portfolio. It's not a problem per se, but it's a dramatic change from the last few years. I knew it was coming, just not so soon. I'm not a member of the S&P 500, so I don't need to be thrilled with average growth. I'm an AAPL investor in it for well above average growth. When I see signs that growth is normalizing to average, I have every right to be disappointed. I'm aware a new product line can boost growth. But there are also headwinds that can knock it down. None of that is certain so I can only deal with the information I have, which is the likely outcome of the next couple of quarters.
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Post by sponge on Feb 27, 2013 13:07:55 GMT -8
I love it. TC and company did not promise anything new regarding the cash. Just like I predicted. The company is in great hands.
TC made it clear a month ago and nothing has changed.
We will have to wait until April or July. I am waiting on July for the increase in dividend and buyback.
AT this point I hope we stay here for about two years so I can load up. But sadly we will start moving up sooner rather then later.
This board is so much faster to read after you ignore the clowns.
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Post by firestorm on Feb 27, 2013 13:08:07 GMT -8
You would think after a 270 point drop that the board would change its tone toward people who are bearish. I think bears are always welcome if they make well-reasoned arguments and don't take counter-arguments personally. But what we often see when AAPL goes down is a small number of bears coming in here with a chip on the shoulder slinging mud at the board itself with tropes like "group think". And then sometimes that anti-board attack focuses in on one or two posters. That's the real tone-change problem here lately, IMO. The problem is that the counter arguments are often made in a dismissive tone with little or no data to back up their arguments, and then many others pile on ... which lends credence to the groupthink narrative. It is especially galling when the bears have been correct in their analysis of the stock for months, and the bulls are sulking because they've been so very wrong. It does no one any good to continually rail that the professional analysts and the media and the pundits and the questioners are all wrong, yet that kind of talk makes up a good share of what is said here. Then there are the know-it-alls who maintain that they alone are correct, and publicly announce who is going on their "ignore" list. I would suggest that the ones with the "chip on their shoulder" are the ones who are too insecure to listen to a counter argument.
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Post by madmaxroi on Feb 27, 2013 13:10:04 GMT -8
Another wonderful day in the neighborhood.
If this continues (anything is possible), hope nobody pulls a Livermore.
Cheers to the Longs (the ones that are left).
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Post by fas550 on Feb 27, 2013 13:10:19 GMT -8
Why don't we all just take a break and stop with attacking the individual and instead if you don't agree with the assertion counter it with facts (if there are any) or propose an alternative and justify why it will work. This is getting too caustic IMHO. I don't think we joined this board to simply trash others on their past assertions. I don't believe anyone has been right all the time: and that's okay. It's about sharing information and ideas. If you can't resist just don't post and do something else for a while. I really like this board and don't want to see it reduced to Yahoo MSG boards. We could start by banning the word "You" in any post.
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Post by madmaxroi on Feb 27, 2013 13:13:09 GMT -8
I love it. TC and company did not promise anything new regarding the cash. Just like I predicted. The company is in great hands. TC made it clear a month ago and nothing has changed. We will have to wait until April or July. I am waiting on July for the increase in dividend and buyback. AT this point I hope we stay here for about two years so I can load up. But sadly we will start moving up sooner rather then later. This board is so much faster to read after you ignore the clowns. Is it possible to ignore one's self? Spongie, that was your implication wasn't it? ;D
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icam
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Post by icam on Feb 27, 2013 13:21:22 GMT -8
Cook = Great Ops guy- very subdued and laser focused and risk averse, which is great on that side of the field which is mostly defense and risk avoidance However, he is horrible sales guy and/or company spokesperson - He NEVER seems truly excited about anything Re: Apple - he sort of feigns or acts passionately at product intros, but just is not a performer. CEO's need to be a performer on stage at some level and he just simply does not have it in him. Thus the products, the brand and the stock are now boring and lackluster (or perceived as such, which is all that really matters) - Really disappointing I'll bet that if you tested 50,000 CEOs of publicly traded firms, you'd find about 1% with the magnetism of Steve Jobs. If it were otherwise Jobs wouldn't have been considered so extraordinary. 1% is generous. I'd say 1/10 of 1% is more realistic, and that most likely too generous.
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 27, 2013 13:24:18 GMT -8
I think bears are always welcome if they make well-reasoned arguments and don't take counter-arguments personally. But what we often see when AAPL goes down is a small number of bears coming in here with a chip on the shoulder slinging mud at the board itself with tropes like "group think". And then sometimes that anti-board attack focuses in on one or two posters. That's the real tone-change problem here lately, IMO. The problem is that the counter arguments are often made in a dismissive tone with little or no data to back up their arguments, and then many others pile on ... which lends credence to the groupthink narrative. It is especially galling when the bears have been correct in their analysis of the stock for months, and the bulls are sulking because they've been so very wrong. It does no one any good to continually rail that the professional analysts and the media and the pundits and the questioners are all wrong, yet that kind of talk makes up a good share of what is said here. Then there are the know-it-alls who maintain that they alone are correct, and publicly announce who is going on their "ignore" list. I would suggest that the ones with the "chip on their shoulder" are the ones who are too insecure to listen to a counter argument. +1
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Post by fas550 on Feb 27, 2013 13:25:05 GMT -8
I love it. TC and company did not promise anything new regarding the cash. Just like I predicted. The company is in great hands. TC made it clear a month ago and nothing has changed. We will have to wait until April or July. I am waiting on July for the increase in dividend and buyback. AT this point I hope we stay here for about two years so I can load up. But sadly we will start moving up sooner rather then later. This board is so much faster to read after you ignore the clowns. Just curious why July?
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Post by sponge on Feb 27, 2013 13:27:13 GMT -8
I love it. TC and company did not promise anything new regarding the cash. Just like I predicted. The company is in great hands. TC made it clear a month ago and nothing has changed. We will have to wait until April or July. I am waiting on July for the increase in dividend and buyback. AT this point I hope we stay here for about two years so I can load up. But sadly we will start moving up sooner rather then later. This board is so much faster to read after you ignore the clowns. Is it possible to ignore one's self? Spongie, that was your implication wasn't it? ;D I love myself too much to ignore my bullishness and wit. This company has never been stronger. So what that we are down 36%. I don't invest for 12 months. I invest for a lifetime. The products they are coming out with will make the stock and company stronger in the next 10 months. Never fear. Don't bet against us.
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Post by sponge on Feb 27, 2013 13:28:59 GMT -8
I love it. TC and company did not promise anything new regarding the cash. Just like I predicted. The company is in great hands. TC made it clear a month ago and nothing has changed. We will have to wait until April or July. I am waiting on July for the increase in dividend and buyback. AT this point I hope we stay here for about two years so I can load up. But sadly we will start moving up sooner rather then later. This board is so much faster to read after you ignore the clowns. Just curious why July? Because they always planned on 12 month updates. I thought they would do it in Jan, but now as you can see, despite intense pressure and the stock down, they are sticking to the 12 month plan. They could surprise us in April.
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 27, 2013 13:33:14 GMT -8
I'll bet that if you tested 50,000 CEOs of publicly traded firms, you'd find about 1% with the magnetism of Steve Jobs. If it were otherwise Jobs wouldn't have been considered so extraordinary. 1% is generous. I'd say 1/10 of 1% is more realistic, and that most likely too generous. I'd say even less has lost ~$250B in an upmarket.
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Post by macwire on Feb 27, 2013 13:39:35 GMT -8
lol at this stock
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Post by Apple II+ on Feb 27, 2013 13:48:49 GMT -8
I think bears are always welcome if they make well-reasoned arguments and don't take counter-arguments personally. But what we often see when AAPL goes down is a small number of bears coming in here with a chip on the shoulder slinging mud at the board itself with tropes like "group think". And then sometimes that anti-board attack focuses in on one or two posters. That's the real tone-change problem here lately, IMO. The problem is that the counter arguments are often made in a dismissive tone with little or no data to back up their arguments, and then many others pile on ... which lends credence to the groupthink narrative. It is especially galling when the bears have been correct in their analysis of the stock for months, and the bulls are sulking because they've been so very wrong. It does no one any good to continually rail that the professional analysts and the media and the pundits and the questioners are all wrong, yet that kind of talk makes up a good share of what is said here. Then there are the know-it-alls who maintain that they alone are correct, and publicly announce who is going on their "ignore" list. I would suggest that the ones with the "chip on their shoulder" are the ones who are too insecure to listen to a counter argument. Well, I guess you won't agree, but IMO bears who make well-reasoned arguments have always been and remain welcomed here, generally speaking.
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