Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 27, 2015 3:48:10 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2015 4:26:42 GMT -8
Yesterday Brian White said about AAPL and China during a CNBC interview yesterday afternoon: “We went there in the third quarter we went again in the fourth quarter and what I found is they could not meet the demand in China. If you go even to Hong Kong, they were selling iPhones for $2100, and they go, this is the high-end iPhone 6 plus, they go for $1000 at the Apple store. People were strapping iPhones to their bodies taking them across the border."
Then he went on to say the stock should also have some multiple expansion (his target for the stock is in the $140ish range). His point was that this year was going to be big for AAPL and that this is just a stepping stone into 2015. He felt people were stuck on the idea that the iPhone 6/6+ is a one time phenomenon and he said they are wrong because in China it continues in waves and it will throughout the year and beyond.: “[...] We are very bullish on Apple Watch almost no one in the world, how much you went to the Apple’s special event, has played and put the Apple Watch on their wrist. I think people are going to be in love with this thing number one. Number two, iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus is not a short-term phenomenon. In Asia everyone moved away. They Moved away; they went with competitors because Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) did not have a bigger phone, now they do, and they are moving back in, and that is huge!"If the media was fair and unbiased it would make me feel so much better...but for ratings they look for any little thing that can possibly be light....any little word that is uttered by management which can be misconstrued or twisted in any little way to catch headlines. That's why we need a blowout - to leave them like deer in the headlights...and possibly even run them over !
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2015 4:57:22 GMT -8
A few Dow components dragging market down here on earnings this morning. That's why it's all negative. CAT, PG, etc.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2015 5:12:01 GMT -8
Just an FYI :
Other things that can swing the general markets today: 8:30 am Durable goods orders 9:00 am Case-Shiller home prices 10:00 am Consumer confidence index 10:00 am New home sales (Here are the stocks that report today: AAPL, ACE, AMGN, AMCC, T, CNI, EA, ILMN, JNPR, POL, SYK, X, VMW, WDC, YHOO)
And tomorrow it's the FOMC announcement at 2:00 pm
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2015 5:16:23 GMT -8
By the way - those of us who are long in any way - we earn and deserve every penny we earn on this company based on the roller coaster rides we get along the way. Durable Goods adding to crushing the markets - revisions are putting the final nail in the coffin. Lovely.
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Post by zzmac on Jan 27, 2015 6:27:51 GMT -8
If Apple reports sales of 70 (or close to it) million phones, lower iPad sales and good guidance what's the most you think the stock can pop? $8-$10 or more?
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Post by firestorm on Jan 27, 2015 6:36:57 GMT -8
Maybe we'll see the selloff BEFORE the news.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2015 6:39:42 GMT -8
If Apple reports sales of 70 (or close to it) million phones, lower iPad sales and good guidance what's the most you think the stock can pop? $8-$10 or more? Yesterday's IV was about a 6% .... today it is roughly 6.4% move either way.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2015 6:46:26 GMT -8
Proctor and Gamble got hit hard from a strong USD. Getting a little worried.
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Post by zzmac on Jan 27, 2015 6:57:04 GMT -8
Foxconn couldn't have picked a better day to announce they're trimming their workforce because of slowing sales.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 27, 2015 7:02:01 GMT -8
AAPL on sale this morning? Any gamblers?
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 27, 2015 7:07:18 GMT -8
AAPL on sale this morning? Any gamblers? Funny I had some January spreads. Rolled the long legs out and allowed the short legs to expire worthless. Was planning to sell additional short legs with the pre-earnings run up -- the one that hasn't occurred. Upshot is I find myself extra long when I normally wouldn't be. I'm debating whether to let it ride.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2015 7:17:06 GMT -8
Here is a wild card (maybe not so wild) but AAPL has more cash than it knows what to do with and if that increase in dividend is juicy - funds and more individuals will probably pile on to buy this stock given it's strong balance sheet and lack of yield from anywhere else in this market place. Don't forget that the debate these days is already whether the Fed even increases in 2015.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 27, 2015 7:20:37 GMT -8
Some good rumored China news this morning.... blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2015/01/27/apple-takes-top-sport-in-china-q4-smartphone-says-canalys/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahooCanalys, The incredible popularity of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus in China in Q4 2014 has led Apple to take first place in the Chinese smart phone market for the first time by units shipped. This is an amazing result, given that the average selling price of Apple’s handsets is nearly double those of its nearest competitors. While Chinese smart phone vendors are quickly gaining ground internationally, Apple has turned the tables on them in their home market. The company is finally riding the large screen and LTE trends in China, which have been vital to its success, along with a well-timed launch and a clampdown on gray exports of its products out of Hong Kong. The top four vendors in Q4 in China by units shipped were Apple, Xiaomi, Samsung and Huawei, respectively.
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 27, 2015 7:21:41 GMT -8
I sold some Feb 6, $95 puts this morning. That'll be my only play going into earnings.
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Post by macwire on Jan 27, 2015 7:23:39 GMT -8
Seems like we are seeing strong USD excuse as tailwinds for forward EPS starting to emerge
I would suspect that is part of the risk off equation here
10:25EST and no bids found. No call sweeps. No buy programs. Heavy market.
Stay nimble guys.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2015 7:26:03 GMT -8
Here is a wild card (maybe not so wild) but AAPL has more cash than it knows what to do with and if that increase in dividend is juicy - funds and more individuals will probably pile on to buy this stock given it's strong balance sheet and lack of yield from anywhere else in this market place. Don't forget that the debate these days is already whether the Fed even increases in 2015. I believe the dividend is announced after the shareholder's meeting in March, so it wouldn't be a wild card for today. But looking ahead, yes, a nice dividend increase would be great.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2015 7:59:58 GMT -8
Here is a wild card (maybe not so wild) but AAPL has more cash than it knows what to do with and if that increase in dividend is juicy - funds and more individuals will probably pile on to buy this stock given it's strong balance sheet and lack of yield from anywhere else in this market place. Don't forget that the debate these days is already whether the Fed even increases in 2015. I believe the dividend is announced after the shareholder's meeting in March, so it wouldn't be a wild card for today. But looking ahead, yes, a nice dividend increase would be great. For the most part yes but in 2013 I believe it was announced on earnings day - take a look: appleinsider.com/articles/13/04/23/apple-boosts-dividend-by-15-boosts-capital-return-spending-to-100b-through-2015
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Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2015 8:07:31 GMT -8
That announcement was made in April. I don't see them deviating from their annual schedule - this is not a panic situation.
Whisper number is $2.66 EPS, for what it's worth.
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Post by mace on Jan 27, 2015 8:30:12 GMT -8
AAPL on sale this morning? Any gamblers? On sale? Have been waiting for $100 for more than a month .
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2015 8:49:07 GMT -8
Seven analysts have $70B in Revs for the December quarter. I'm not saying Apple won't, but does ANYONE think this helps AAPL longs? I think Apple is going to deliver but these F**king expectations don't help. Really, really annoying.
GM should come in higher that Apple's guidance, which will buffer any iPhone unit disappointment (hint: they shouldn't but 71M iPhones are predicted by 8 analysts!). ASPs are also another tool in Luca's workshop that could deliver an upside surprise.
Whisper # of $2.66 is achievable. My WAG: $2.82 EPS.
Color "feel good" commentary on the call should buoy the stock if the #s don't blow everyone's minds. Lots of good stuff for Tim and Co. to talk about: China growth, gross margins, cash generated, enterprise adoption, continuing "off the chart" demand for flagship product, etc.
Good luck to AAPL longs. The rest -- go buy some MSFT, you deserve it.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 27, 2015 8:51:36 GMT -8
If they really do deliver $2.70ish, which is around 30% EPS growth, they should be rewarded with more than a 16 PE. They will have proven all of the law-of-large-numbers naysayers wrong. Yet the FUD will never die, I'm afraid.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jan 27, 2015 9:02:08 GMT -8
AAPL on sale this morning? Any gamblers? On sale? Have been waiting for $100 for more than a month . So sell some $100 puts!
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 27, 2015 9:17:32 GMT -8
That announcement was made in April. I don't see them deviating from their annual schedule - this is not a panic situation. Whisper number is $2.66 EPS, for what it's worth. Ok - I'll give you that Tuffet but at least give me that it has been and can be announced on earnings day.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 27, 2015 9:23:08 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 27, 2015 9:28:24 GMT -8
I'm a bit surprised to see Ms. Huberty among the lowest estimates ($65.27, $2.50). She has seemed like one the voices of reason for the past few months.
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Post by mace on Jan 27, 2015 9:32:12 GMT -8
... Whisper # of $2.66 is achievable. My WAG: $2.82 EPS... Whisper is $2.74. Don't you think Apple might make a big sandbagging on guidance because of possible continual strengthening of US dollar?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 27, 2015 9:33:36 GMT -8
As you all know, I'm no day trader, but I have been seeing $.20-$.30 swings on consecutive "prints" on Yahoo finance. Isn't that pretty unusual?
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Post by tuffett on Jan 27, 2015 9:38:11 GMT -8
Seven analysts have $70B in Revs for the December quarter. I'm not saying Apple won't, but does ANYONE think this helps AAPL longs? I think Apple is going to deliver but these F**king expectations don't help. Really, really annoying. GM should come in higher that Apple's guidance, which will buffer any iPhone unit disappointment (hint: they shouldn't but 71M iPhones are predicted by 8 analysts!). ASPs are also another tool in Luca's workshop that could deliver an upside surprise. Whisper # of $2.66 is achievable. My WAG: $2.82 EPS. Color "feel good" commentary on the call should buoy the stock if the #s don't blow everyone's minds. Lots of good stuff for Tim and Co. to talk about: China growth, gross margins, cash generated, enterprise adoption, continuing "off the chart" demand for flagship product, etc. Good luck to AAPL longs. The rest -- go buy some MSFT, you deserve it. It wasn't long ago that people were endlessly praising the independent analysts for nailing their estimates and laughing at the pros for forecasting so low. Now we are taking issue with the high (or accurate?) forecasts. Analysts will always be predicting and many will be completely off base. It may temporarily affect the stock but in the long run the performance of the company is what matters. I personally don't mind seeing a bunch of estimates just to get a feel for expectations but I don't put much stock in them. Not a single analyst has a consistently strong track record when it comes to predicting earnings.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2015 9:47:30 GMT -8
... Whisper # of $2.66 is achievable. My WAG: $2.82 EPS... Whisper is $2.74. Don't you think Apple might make a big sandbagging on guidance because of possible continual strengthening of US dollar? Phoebes posted $2.66. Now we have she said/he said whisper numbers. Yes, I do think AAPL sandbagged Dec and will sandbag March, to a point. I'm not grasping for pies-in-the-sky at $2.82. Apple can get there and beyond with unused tools in the shed (e.g higher ASPs and iPhone units). For example, if iPhone ASP is $685 (and not my $650), you can add 14 cents to $2.82 -- it's that significant. But it is still a WAG (wild-assed guess, just to be very clear about it). Forex will be conveniently blamed by companies that didn't deliver. Apple shouldn't need any excuses, although iPads probably won't impress.
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