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Post by Lstream on Feb 4, 2015 8:41:02 GMT -8
When Apple Pay was first announced, I ran some numbers on the revenue impact, given the reported fees Apple was getting. The revenue impact is immaterial. This is an iPhone and ecosystem stickiness play. For now. No, for good. I think I posted the numbers over at Braeburn but I no longer have access. The business model and fees are now set. Even if Apple gets 100% market share in payments, with how it is set up, then the numbers are immaterial. I think people need to look beyond Apple Pay for a revenue growth driver.
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Post by The Big Toe on Feb 4, 2015 8:41:40 GMT -8
Bill Wyman of Evercore was on Bloomberg this morning discussing Apple's sustainability. Basically said Apple will do well for the next few quarters but can't continue beyond. I am wondering what is different this time compared to the sell off that hit in 2012 and 2013. One of the drivers was a really tough compare against a monster FQ1/12 that saw a dramatic slowdown in sales and EPS growth. That was combined with the rise in perceived threat from Samsung. So for some time now, I have been wondering whether the huge q1/15 is a precursor to another sell off in late 15 or early 16. I think we have some buffers this time with the implosion of Samsung, the Watch, and a stronger ecosystem. But it still makes me wonder whether this recent monster quarter is going to set us up for the next sell off late this year or early next. I have been buy and hold since mid 2002, but I am seriously considering lightening or exiting my long term holdings during the relative good times we are now in. Interested in feedback on this line of thinking. The law of large numbers argument is always going to be there. But there is a big difference between 2012-13 to now. LEADERSHIP. Back then, the big question was if Apple could still produce new products that people want to buy. This will continue to be a question, be we are starting to get some indication that Apple can still innovate.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Feb 4, 2015 8:51:15 GMT -8
Given that it's Ex-Div tomorrow, I would expect that sellers who would normally sell today may wait until tomorrow to do so. So I won't be surprised that we go up today with an ATH intraday, and we go down tomorrow (probably by more than 0.47) to end the week. If an Apple shareholder sold in after hours today or premarket tomorrow would the dividend be paid? Or only in regular market tomorrow?
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 4, 2015 8:52:42 GMT -8
So I'm thinking dividend purchases, and the "Apple Car" news has AAPL up (intraday ATH!) and GOOG down a bit on the extrapolation that Apple will launch a serious map effort and dump Google. Am I the only one who sees maps as a revenue source? It is for Google. It is amazing to me how immune GOOG has been to the fact that so much of its revenue comes from a mortal enemy's OS. Not sure who this Ed Dividend guy is, or why The Rolling Stones former guitarist would have any insight about Apple's future sales, but I trust Tim Cook knows what he has to do to keep things rolling. Chinese New Year in two weeks, folks. Let's try to focus on the current quarter, and the All-Time Fucking High (ChinaCat, isn't that a Grateful Dead song?). This story is 24 hours old. claycord.com/2015/02/03/update-the-mystery-van-driving-around-claycord/This story is 14 hours old. appleinsider.com/articles/15/02/03/apple-testing-mysterious-camera-equipped-vehicles-in-the-bay-area" ANALyst Rob Enderle told KPIX that he believes the vehicles are in fact self-driving cars" IMHO: it is a map car. The additional downward facing cameras are used to give the 3D depth that differentiates MAPS from GOOGLE. THERE IS NOTHING HERE! THESE ARE NOT THE DROIDS YOU WERE LOOKING FOR!
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Post by zzmac on Feb 4, 2015 8:54:47 GMT -8
No, for good. I think I posted the numbers over at Braeburn but I no longer have access. The business model and fees are now set. Even if Apple gets 100% market share in payments, with how it is set up, then the numbers are immaterial. I think people need to look beyond Apple Pay for a revenue growth driver. You may well be right but I think there's also a strong possibility of Apple raising their fees down the road once everyone's on board (5-7 years) which could evolve into a serious steady revenue stream.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 4, 2015 8:59:31 GMT -8
I agree that Pay in its current form is not the next iPhone. Much like iTunes was not the next iPod. Though the iTunes store barely impacts Apples overall numbers, its results are very respectable and much like an annuity for Apple and its shareholders. If the growth somehow stops, Apple is the bluest of the blue chips. The magic moment for Apple Pay will be the NEXT major credit card security breach. And it will come. Next week, next month, next year...but when this happens and some fat guy in Bulgaria gets 120 million Visa, Mastercard and Discover card data specs...and uses them....and all those people have to get new cards....then the reflection of Apple Pay and what it provides will be seen in a whole new light. Lots of free publicity. It will sell phones and sell trust.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 4, 2015 9:02:18 GMT -8
So I'm thinking dividend purchases, and the "Apple Car" news has AAPL up (intraday ATH!) and GOOG down a bit on the extrapolation that Apple will launch a serious map effort and dump Google. Am I the only one who sees maps as a revenue source? It is for Google. It is amazing to me how immune GOOG has been to the fact that so much of its revenue comes from a mortal enemy's OS. Not sure who this Ed Dividend guy is, or why The Rolling Stones former guitarist would have any insight about Apple's future sales, but I trust Tim Cook knows what he has to do to keep things rolling. Chinese New Year in two weeks, folks. Let's try to focus on the current quarter, and the All-Time Fucking High (ChinaCat, isn't that a Grateful Dead song?). This story is 24 hours old. claycord.com/2015/02/03/update-the-mystery-van-driving-around-claycord/This story is 14 hours old. appleinsider.com/articles/15/02/03/apple-testing-mysterious-camera-equipped-vehicles-in-the-bay-area" ANALyst Rob Enderle told KPIX that he believes the vehicles are in fact self-driving cars" IMHO: it is a map car. The additional downward facing cameras are used to give the 3D depth that differentiates MAPS from GOOGLE. THERE IS NOTHING HERE! THESE ARE NOT THE DROIDS YOU WERE LOOKING FOR! Art, no Star Wars references allowed on this board, only Star Trek. Resistance is Futile.
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Feb 4, 2015 9:02:52 GMT -8
Bill Wyman of Evercore was on Bloomberg this morning discussing Apple's sustainability. Basically said Apple will do well for the next few quarters but can't continue beyond. I am wondering what is different this time compared to the sell off that hit in 2012 and 2013. One of the drivers was a really tough compare against a monster FQ1/12 that saw a dramatic slowdown in sales and EPS growth. That was combined with the rise in perceived threat from Samsung. So for some time now, I have been wondering whether the huge q1/15 is a precursor to another sell off in late 15 or early 16. I think we have some buffers this time with the implosion of Samsung, the Watch, and a stronger ecosystem. But it still makes me wonder whether this recent monster quarter is going to set us up for the next sell off late this year or early next. I have been buy and hold since mid 2002, but I am seriously considering lightening or exiting my long term holdings during the relative good times we are now in. Interested in feedback on this line of thinking. We are all haunted by what happened last time: the hyper-over-reaction to Apple's slow-down and Samsung's relatively brief perception as a true force in the smartphone universe. Still Apple is a wiser company now and in a completely different situation: dividends, buybacks, growing cash, nice pipeline, MO-mentum, eco-system broadening, etc. This is as sound an enterprise as ever there was. That doesn't mean that perception won't change, that the FUD machine won't focus on another take-down, that we aren't vulnerable… Vigilance is the watch word for sure. Looking ahead though, the horizon seems clear for more gains for iPhone and Apple in general. Robert over at Braeburn (yeh, I know he's only a guy) thinks 140 by April-ish is a "lock." Tim C. is "very, very" bullish - I was encouraged by his language on the CC and increased my position accordingly. I think for now there is little to sweat over. The time to worry some I think will be in nine or ten months, but we need to see how the Watch does… L, don't shoot yrself in the foot just as we are (finally) making progress on a proper valuation for AAPL. Also, don't listen to people on the internet.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Feb 4, 2015 9:11:31 GMT -8
No, for good. I think I posted the numbers over at Braeburn but I no longer have access. The business model and fees are now set. Even if Apple gets 100% market share in payments, with how it is set up, then the numbers are immaterial. I think people need to look beyond Apple Pay for a revenue growth driver. With AAPL being as big as it is, it certainly gets more difficult going forward to move the needle. How much recurring revenue per quarter do you think that needs to be? With an expected increasing market share for its fixed cut of mobile payments and very little overhead costs associated with adding new users -- on top of its contributions to platform enhancement/stickiness -- I see Apple Pay in very favorable light. In the college kid's article I linked to earlier today, I think he is right on target in questioning, 'Who else is capable of doing mobile payments pay the way Apple is?' The Apple moat is getting wider and wider and I don't expect their generals to sit fat on its cash cows the way Microsoft did with it's seemingly Impenetrable moat. Here's what the college kid wrote about Apples mobile payments revenue: "How much Apple will profit from Apple Pay is anyone’s guess. Mine is: Over time, a lot. In the U.S. alone, credit and debit card transactions totaled $3.9 trillion in 2013. Since Apple gets a .15 percent cut of every Apple Pay transaction, a measly 10 percent transaction share is worth $585 million. One year, one country, $585 million. Over time, Apple will make billions from Apple Pay."
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Post by Lstream on Feb 4, 2015 9:11:48 GMT -8
I am wondering what is different this time compared to the sell off that hit in 2012 and 2013. One of the drivers was a really tough compare against a monster FQ1/12 that saw a dramatic slowdown in sales and EPS growth. That was combined with the rise in perceived threat from Samsung. So for some time now, I have been wondering whether the huge q1/15 is a precursor to another sell off in late 15 or early 16. I think we have some buffers this time with the implosion of Samsung, the Watch, and a stronger ecosystem. But it still makes me wonder whether this recent monster quarter is going to set us up for the next sell off late this year or early next. I have been buy and hold since mid 2002, but I am seriously considering lightening or exiting my long term holdings during the relative good times we are now in. Interested in feedback on this line of thinking. We are all haunted by what happened last time: the hyper-over-reaction to Apple's slow-down and Samsung's relatively brief perception as a true force in the smartphone universe. Still Apple is a wiser company now and in a completely different situation: dividends, buybacks, growing cash, nice pipeline, MO-mentum, eco-system broadening, etc. This is as sound an enterprise as ever there was. That doesn't mean that perception won't change, that the FUD machine won't focus on another take-down, that we aren't vulnerable… Vigilance is the watch word for sure. Looking ahead though, the horizon seems clear for more gains for iPhone and Apple in general. Robert over at Braeburn (yeh, I know he's only a guy) thinks 140 by April-ish is a "lock." Tim C. is "very, very" bullish - I was encouraged by his language on the CC and increased my position accordingly. I think for now there is little to sweat over. The time to worry some I think will be in nine or ten months, but we need to see how the Watch does… L, don't shoot yrself in the foot just as we are (finally) making progress on a proper valuation for AAPL. Also, don't listen to people on the internet. Robert has been wrong just as often as he has been right. With that said, the next six months does not really worry me. The next 40-50% drop IS coming. Just a question of when. On Apple Pay, I believe that the best information is that Apple gets 0.15%. So for every TRILLION dollars in Apple Pay transactions, gross revenue is $1.5B. That is immaterial for a $200B+ company, even if they achieve it. I also don't believe that Appple intends to or is capable of increasing those fees for a very long time. You can be sure that the partners who are driving adoption, took care of that in the negotiations.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Feb 4, 2015 9:13:18 GMT -8
Bill Wyman of Evercore was on Bloomberg this morning discussing Apple's sustainability. Basically said Apple will do well for the next few quarters but can't continue beyond. I am wondering what is different this time compared to the sell off that hit in 2012 and 2013. One of the drivers was a really tough compare against a monster FQ1/12 that saw a dramatic slowdown in sales and EPS growth. That was combined with the rise in perceived threat from Samsung. So for some time now, I have been wondering whether the huge q1/15 is a precursor to another sell off in late 15 or early 16. I think we have some buffers this time with the implosion of Samsung, the Watch, and a stronger ecosystem. But it still makes me wonder whether this recent monster quarter is going to set us up for the next sell off late this year or early next. I have been buy and hold since mid 2002, but I am seriously considering lightening or exiting my long term holdings during the relative good times we are now in. Interested in feedback on this line of thinking. Part of the problem with the longer term predictions about Apple is a failure to acknowledge the dynamics of the tech market. Even BI would not run articles saying that Apple is doomed because there is a quarter to quarter drop, while ignoring the seasonality of the demand. (I may to generous here, who knows how low they will stoop?) In the same way that we look at y-o-y growth instead of quarter to quarter growth, I think that predictions should acknowledge the life cycle of products. Look at the iPod. No one is worried that the trailing off of iPod sales signals Apples demise (Damn, I just gave BI their next article). New product acceptance seems to follow a Rayleigh curve, rising quickly to a peak and then trailing off more slowly. (This is part of the reason that Fibs appear to work) The cycle can be extended through refreshes but eventually, the iPhone will go the way of the iPod and the walkman. Those who project the health of the company based on annual numbers while ignoring the product cycle will get it wrong again and again. The huge quarter in 2012 was caused by the amazing impact of the iPad. It is astounding to me that a product refresh like the iPhone 6 could have a similar impact. From a trading perspective, I imagine we will see another dip like 2013 in the later part of the product cycle. Perhaps not as severe, due to Samsung's implosion, but it does not seem unreasonable to me. On the other hand, I think that the technical momentum that Apple has earned with their ecosystem will allow them to continue to grow market share with existing products. It may be inherent to the nature of modern technology that one company grows to 90% of the market. We saw it with IBM in the 60's, with DEC in the 70's and early 80's and then with Microsoft and Intel. My sense is that now it is Apple's turn. While I was typing this, a lot was posted. I see I am preaching to the choir
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 4, 2015 9:22:54 GMT -8
Regardless of how "old" the story is on obscure tech sites that only we read, for public dissemination purposes, it was and remains linked on Drudge this morning, arguably the most read and influential news site on the Net. Pay is a huge ecosystem stickiness and iOS recruiting service akin to iTunes. Any revs are gravy. As for revs tanking in previous years, that was largely due to Samsung and people wanting larger screens. Problems solved on that front. I'm looking forward to the 6S and 6S Plus. Lots of innovative features that have been patented over the years that have yet to be implemented. I'm still looking forward to haptics (which we will first see with Watch). As for the Nervous Nellies worried about growth, Apple hasn't even begun to tap China.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 4, 2015 9:25:08 GMT -8
No, for good. I think I posted the numbers over at Braeburn but I no longer have access. The business model and fees are now set. Even if Apple gets 100% market share in payments, with how it is set up, then the numbers are immaterial. I think people need to look beyond Apple Pay for a revenue growth driver. With AAPL being as big as it is, it certainly gets more difficult going forward to move the needle. How much recurring revenue per quarter do you think that needs to be? With an expected increasing market share for its fixed cut of mobile payments and very little overhead costs associated with adding new users -- on top of its contributions to platform enhancement/stickiness -- I see Apple Pay in very favorable light. In the college kid's article I linked to earlier today, I think he is right on target in questioning, 'Who else is capable of doing mobile payments pay the way Apple is?' The Apple moat is getting wider and wider and I don't expect their generals to sit fat on its cash cows the way Microsoft did with it's seemingly Impenetrable moat. Here's what the college kid wrote about Apples mobile payments revenue: "How much Apple will profit from Apple Pay is anyone’s guess. Mine is: Over time, a lot. In the U.S. alone, credit and debit card transactions totaled $3.9 trillion in 2013. Since Apple gets a .15 percent cut of every Apple Pay transaction, a measly 10 percent transaction share is worth $585 million. One year, one country, $585 million. Over time, Apple will make billions from Apple Pay." Yes, the U.S. is one country, but it accounts for 43.7% of credit card transactions.The real win will be market share increase of Phones. driven by these services. That is where the gold is, not direct Apple Pay revenue.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Feb 4, 2015 9:28:55 GMT -8
it was and remains linked on Drudge this morning, arguably the most read and influential news site on the Net. Actually, JD, Drudge is not even in the top 25 according to Alexa. Hmmmm, things are beginning to become clear.... Huffington post is number 4
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 4, 2015 9:53:08 GMT -8
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Mav
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[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Feb 4, 2015 10:05:46 GMT -8
Hang on, who said Apple revs ever tanked? Profits yes, from 47% gross margin. Apple hasn't ever had revs drop in recent memory. A slowdown, yes, but hey, $200B+ run rate. And it's actually reversing the slowdown right now.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 4, 2015 10:07:54 GMT -8
it was and remains linked on Drudge this morning, arguably the most read and influential news site on the Net. Actually, JD, Drudge is not even in the top 25 according to Alexa. Hmmmm, things are beginning to become clear.... Huffington post is number 4 Now Bud, I would expect you, of all people, who literally bet the farm on AAPL, to realize that there is market share, and then there is market share of people who count. Drudge is arguably the most read and influential site amongst US journalists. He can still drive enough traffic to shut down entire Websites with the "Drudge effect." The point is, when it's on Drudge at the top of the fold, every journo in the country has read it by 8AM. People surfing for cat videos, notsomuch. So it's nice to see positive Apple stories on his site.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 4, 2015 10:20:03 GMT -8
Actually, JD, Drudge is not even in the top 25 according to Alexa. Hmmmm, things are beginning to become clear.... Huffington post is number 4 Now Bud, I would expect you, of all people, who literally bet the farm on AAPL, to realize that there is market share, and then there is market share of people who count. Drudge is arguably the most read and influential site amongst US journalists. He can still drive enough traffic to shut down entire Websites with the "Drudge effect." The point is, when it's on Drudge at the top of the fold, every journo in the country has read it by 8AM. People surfing for cat videos, notsomuch. So it's nice to see positive Apple stories on his site. We are off topic, but when people want news they do go to other sites much more often, by pageview, linkstat or any other measure. Mr. Drudge has his devotees for sure, but the most influential? www.ebizmba.com/articles/news-websitesMonthly Unique Visitors. CNN = 74 Million. MSNBC = 73 Million. NY Times = 59 Million. Huffington Post = 54 Million. others: Fox News = 32 Million. Drudge Report = 14 Million. Matt is a smart guy...he autorefreshes his site every few minutes. Each refresh goes on his clicker as a page view. This is how he got to a billion pageviews in October 2012 right before the election. Very clever. Hey, look at AAPL
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 10:53:34 GMT -8
CNN tops the list of page views? Now THAT'S depressing. David Goldman is predicting that Watch will flop. PED just tweeted a snarky one to that....attaboy Philip!
I dumped all of my April 95s. My best lesson owning AAPL derivatives is to stay away from expiration dates.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 4, 2015 11:05:47 GMT -8
Now Bud, I would expect you, of all people, who literally bet the farm on AAPL, to realize that there is market share, and then there is market share of people who count. Drudge is arguably the most read and influential site amongst US journalists. He can still drive enough traffic to shut down entire Websites with the "Drudge effect." The point is, when it's on Drudge at the top of the fold, every journo in the country has read it by 8AM. People surfing for cat videos, notsomuch. So it's nice to see positive Apple stories on his site. We are off topic.... ....... Hey, look at AAPLAND...we're back on topic.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 4, 2015 11:14:23 GMT -8
And it 2:14 ....fueling the rocket....
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 11:41:29 GMT -8
It's taking an awfully long time to fuel this rocket.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 4, 2015 11:47:28 GMT -8
Ok - just got home from my annual eye doctor exam - eyes are healthy - great - the better to see AAPL very clearly rising....the only problem is that I am typing indoors with my sunglasses because my pupils are dialated...could be a good look for me...I could be setting a trend... .... looking as cool as Tom Cruise in Top Gun. A few things: 1. Forget about Pay moving the needle - it's about more iPhones and other products to join the ecosystem (as several of you have already pointed out). 2. Has anyone heard anything about Feb. 24th? Take a look: www.idownloadblog.com/2015/02/04/apple-could-hold-a-special-event-late-february/
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 4, 2015 12:14:22 GMT -8
One last thing - for Artman or anyone else - the tech industry does have it's share of sexism but that's the case for many industries. When I started out in finance and worked on a trading floor - our risk traders had Playboy centerfolds taped on the walls behind them (a very long time ago - and it was a very respected firm I might add). I would have to go up and speak to them to trade or position a block of stock for an institutional client and I had Miss January staring back at me. It was long ago and things have gotten dramatically better. (By the way - none of it offended me - I knew what I was geting into and had a plan.) The key is that a female needs to assert herself and have the knowledge to back it up. Being bright, understanding your markets, providing insights, suggesting good/winning trades gets a female far. It all works out in the end. You earn respect somewhere along the line. Do we need to be better than the guy standing next to us? Shit, yeah. But heck, this has been going on since the beginning of time...let's not forget Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers. Astaire had all the fame and yet Ginger Rogers did everything he did - but in heels - and backwards! My point being - it is what it is and you just need to figure out how to work around it.
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icam
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Post by icam on Feb 4, 2015 12:25:05 GMT -8
I am not worried about the year over year compare concerns because of 2 fundamental reasons.
- Only 15% of older version iPhones upgraded to 6/6+ in 2015 Q1. There will be plenty of installed base customers getting a new iPhone next fall as they aren't eligible to upgrade until then when their contracts are due for renewal. - China mobile has 800 million customers and is in it's infancy with iPhone.
Stop reading the click bait BS'ers, sleep tight and BTFD's!
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Post by Lstream on Feb 4, 2015 12:38:17 GMT -8
I am not worried about the year over year compare concerns because of 2 fundamental reasons. - Only 15% of older version iPhones upgraded to 6/6+ in 2015 Q1. There will be plenty of installed base customers getting a new iPhone next fall as they aren't eligible to upgrade until then when their contracts are due for renewal. - China mobile has 800 million customers and is in it's infancy with iPhone. Stop reading the click bait BS'ers, sleep tight and BTFD's! I am not letting click baiters influence my thinking at all. And your point 1 is of no real use. How is that upgrade potential any different than any other product cycle? I suspect those percentages are very similar to what we were facing when the stock fell from 700ish to below 400.
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Post by macwire on Feb 4, 2015 12:47:00 GMT -8
Yuck. :/
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Feb 4, 2015 12:51:43 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 4, 2015 12:58:25 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Feb 4, 2015 12:58:32 GMT -8
I am not worried about the year over year compare concerns because of 2 fundamental reasons. - Only 15% of older version iPhones upgraded to 6/6+ in 2015 Q1. There will be plenty of installed base customers getting a new iPhone next fall as they aren't eligible to upgrade until then when their contracts are due for renewal. - China mobile has 800 million customers and is in it's infancy with iPhone. Stop reading the click bait BS'ers, sleep tight and BTFD's! I am not letting click baiters influence my thinking at all. And your point 1 is of no real use. How is that upgrade potential any different than any other product cycle? I suspect those percentages are very similar to what we were facing when the stock fell from 700ish to below 400. It's different because the userbase is increasing every second. 15% of 200 million customers is not the same as 15% of 400 million customers.
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