Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 3:43:02 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. AAPL and major indices are both RED, off slightly this morning. AAPL is trading at 118.53 -0.12 (0.10%) as of 6:20. Just a reminder, Apple trades Ex-Dividend February 5. Shares must be purchased by tomorrow to get the dividend. This means Friday's price change will be adjusted 47¢. Options are not adjusted for ordinary dividends. DED has a nice article recapping Apple's capital return program at AppleInsider. In the news: Is Apple working on a self driving car or on improving Maps? Article at AppleInsider. Additional interpretations at Cult of Mac and MacRumors. AppleInsider reports Oscar winner Alex Gibney bringing new Steve Jobs documentary to SXSW Film. This one looks more interesting to me than the others. This morning we have two articles filed under Google Agita. TechCrunch has Apple’s iPhone Overtakes Android In US Sales For The First Time Since 2012 and StatCounter reports Yahoo gains further US search share in January with Google falling below 75% search for the first time. Methinks there is trouble in Mountain View. Perhaps someone is changing underwear. As a side note, have you noticed the number of BI articles with a negative slant on Apple in the last couple of days? And seeing them picked up by obscure publications you've never heard of? Frustrating. Tempted to start keeping stats... but as many here have noted that would just be feeding the monster. Though it is frustrating, I take solace in the thought that BI is just tightening the coil for the day AAPL ultimately lifts off. Perhaps that is the objective. Is anyone awake at the SEC? One would think convicted manipulators, particularly those who publish, would be watched closely. Have a great day. Let's make money. Edited multiple times trying to clarify Ex-Dividend.
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Post by macwire on Feb 4, 2015 4:09:01 GMT -8
To clarify the ex date is 2/5
In order to receive the dividend you must own the stock the business date before the ex -date
That means today by close of business.
Stock is adjusted for the dividend ON 2/5.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 4:30:21 GMT -8
Original post edited for clarity. Thanks.
The key point is that option prices are not adjusted for dividends. This often burns people.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 5:49:15 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 5:54:43 GMT -8
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Post by macwire on Feb 4, 2015 6:02:05 GMT -8
Original post edited for clarity. Thanks. The key point is that option prices are not adjusted for dividends. This often burns people. Option strike prices are not but ex div events are basically factored into option pricing. One will notice a deep ITM option will not budge after ex div. Otherwise it would be extremely profitable to put any dividend paying stock at the money and sell the following day to capture the stock price adjustment.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 6:16:42 GMT -8
Bill Wyman of Evercore was on Bloomberg this morning discussing Apple's sustainability. Basically said Apple will do well for the next few quarters but can't continue beyond.
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jz
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Post by jz on Feb 4, 2015 6:36:43 GMT -8
Congrats to Horace for his Fall 2012 estimate that Apple would sell 1 billion iOS devices exactly when they did...
Apple on pace to sell 1 billion iOS devices by 2015 By Sam Oliver, Appleinsider Monday, September 17, 2012, 01:08 pm PT (04:08 pm ET)
The upward trajectory of iOS device sales has Apple on pace to reach one billion sold by late 2014 or early 2015, according to a new analysis.
The projection was published on Monday by Horace Dediu of Asymco, who has projected iOS device sales through iTunes account growth. Apple announced at its iPhone 5 event last week that currently it has 435 million total active iTunes accounts.
Dediu calculated that Apple is currently adding about 12 million new iTunes accounts every month. He found that this growth pattern mirrors corresponding growth in iOS usage.
Though he admitted the numbers are "not a very precise forecast," they do suggest that Apple will sell a total of one billion iOS devices — iPhone, iPad and iPod touch — by late 2014 or early 2015.
Last week, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook revealed that his company has sold a total of 400 million iOS devices through the month of June. Apple's march to 400 million iOS devices sold to date began in mid-2007 with the launch of the first iPhone.
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jz
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Post by jz on Feb 4, 2015 6:41:52 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 6:50:35 GMT -8
This is an Apple Pay article posted yesterday by a college sophomore... Smart kid. certainly ahead of Bill Wyman.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 6:51:14 GMT -8
OK. Let's see if we can get over $120 today.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 4, 2015 6:52:17 GMT -8
OK. Let's see if we can get over $120 today. Much better early pattern....
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Post by macwire on Feb 4, 2015 6:55:16 GMT -8
Slow and steady
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 7:00:26 GMT -8
I'm trimming. If it goes up from here, great. Uncle Carl still needs to update his $203 price target, which might happen later this week. Other than that, there aren't that many catalysts before the watch event, an unveiling that seems less anticipated than the iPad. Cue the negative, skeptical "articles" on the Watch...
Edit: Not just Uncle Carl is expected with new price targets -- I'm waiting on others, including Maynard Dum, despite the fact he is beyond redemption as an analyst
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Post by Lstream on Feb 4, 2015 7:12:04 GMT -8
Bill Wyman of Evercore was on Bloomberg this morning discussing Apple's sustainability. Basically said Apple will do well for the next few quarters but can't continue beyond. I am wondering what is different this time compared to the sell off that hit in 2012 and 2013. One of the drivers was a really tough compare against a monster FQ1/12 that saw a dramatic slowdown in sales and EPS growth. That was combined with the rise in perceived threat from Samsung. So for some time now, I have been wondering whether the huge q1/15 is a precursor to another sell off in late 15 or early 16. I think we have some buffers this time with the implosion of Samsung, the Watch, and a stronger ecosystem. But it still makes me wonder whether this recent monster quarter is going to set us up for the next sell off late this year or early next. I have been buy and hold since mid 2002, but I am seriously considering lightening or exiting my long term holdings during the relative good times we are now in. Interested in feedback on this line of thinking.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 8:04:34 GMT -8
It is an interesting debate.
While it is frustrating listening to arbitrary and inconsistent applications of the law of large numbers, it is important to recognize that to maintain a consistent growth rate one must grow exponentially. That is, you must not only expand production/sales/earnings consistently but you must also grow the capacity for future growth. Apple's R&D and Capital numbers are heart warming in this regard.
So the big question is what do Apple's numbers need to be next year to match the growth this year -- and can they pull it off? And the year after and the year after? It is interesting that Wyman spoke very carefully. He did not want to say Apple is in imminent danger and took great pains to pronounce future doom. Frankly Apple just pulled off a quarter that 'experts' like Wyman said it couldn't do. The good news is Apple is far from saturation in the relevant markets. Contrast that with many darlings like Google or Intel or Microsoft.
As Apple approaches saturation it will have to pioneer new markets. This is where Apple shines. There are many initiatives (Pay, TV, and who knows what else in the lab) at Apple that could develop into the next big thing. There are existing initiatives that may yet surprise us (iPad). Apple also has a unique capacity to obsolete its own products. If anyone can do this, Apple can.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 8:13:52 GMT -8
Come on AAPL. You can do it.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 8:14:40 GMT -8
AAPL broke $120
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Post by gtrplyr on Feb 4, 2015 8:17:18 GMT -8
FINALLY !!!!!!
Cheers to the longs !
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Post by Lstream on Feb 4, 2015 8:21:08 GMT -8
When Apple Pay was first announced, I ran some numbers on the revenue impact, given the reported fees Apple was getting. The revenue impact is immaterial. This is an iPhone and ecosystem stickiness play.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 8:23:59 GMT -8
The perception IS that Apple will have trouble with YOY compares with Dec 2014. If I think for a moment that the market is rational, this is the best explanation why we're not at $130+ today. I think the Watch will sell more iPhones and coupled with Apple Pay and Samsung's demise, there's a LOT of upside for Apple in the smartphone replacement cycle and market share. If I didn't believe this, I'd be out.
Unfortunately, Apple, Inc. has a pack of National Enquirer-type writers that stalk the Company with specious reporting. The stock market's paparazzi are infatuated with the "Apple is doomed" meme. It's not likely to change and it does do damage to AAPL's upside, since at least 50% of a stock's valuation seems to be pure sentiment (e.g. Amazon).
With Apple's money, it probably has a bevy of skunk works projects under development. In fact, Tim alluded to as much. Hell, Apple has enough money for more things that we can imagine. That is WS' major failure with Apple's valuation.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 4, 2015 8:24:20 GMT -8
So I'm thinking dividend purchases, and the "Apple Car" news has AAPL up (intraday ATH!) and GOOG down a bit on the extrapolation that Apple will launch a serious map effort and dump Google. Am I the only one who sees maps as a revenue source? It is for Google. It is amazing to me how immune GOOG has been to the fact that so much of its revenue comes from a mortal enemy's OS. Not sure who this Ed Dividend guy is, or why The Rolling Stones former guitarist would have any insight about Apple's future sales, but I trust Tim Cook knows what he has to do to keep things rolling. Chinese New Year in two weeks, folks. Let's try to focus on the current quarter, and the All-Time Fucking High (ChinaCat, isn't that a Grateful Dead song?).
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 8:29:04 GMT -8
I agree that Pay in its current form is not the next iPhone. Much like iTunes was not the next iPod. Though the iTunes store barely impacts Apples overall numbers, its results are very respectable and much like an annuity for Apple and its shareholders.
If the growth somehow stops, Apple is the bluest of the blue chips.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 4, 2015 8:30:46 GMT -8
We need to close above $120
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Post by zzmac on Feb 4, 2015 8:33:22 GMT -8
When Apple Pay was first announced, I ran some numbers on the revenue impact, given the reported fees Apple was getting. The revenue impact is immaterial. This is an iPhone and ecosystem stickiness play. For now.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2015 8:33:26 GMT -8
Not sure who this Ed Dividend guy is... Let's just say I can't type to this morning.
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Post by macwire on Feb 4, 2015 8:34:18 GMT -8
We need to close above $120 I'm actually of the opinion of it bases over 120 for an hour or two it gets a end of day run And to think I was almost a quarter from my stop a few days ago. Yikes.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 4, 2015 8:35:05 GMT -8
Let's try to focus on the current quarter, and the All-Time Fucking High (ChinaCat, isn't that a Grateful Dead song?). Not by name, but certainly in spirit! I'm hoping that breaking this invisible psychological hurdle, will finally open the floodgates. I mean, how crazy is worrying about YoY comps for a year from now? Lots of fuel to burn between now and then.
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Post by BillH on Feb 4, 2015 8:36:41 GMT -8
Bill Wyman of Evercore was on Bloomberg this morning discussing Apple's sustainability. Basically said Apple will do well for the next few quarters but can't continue beyond. I am wondering what is different this time compared to the sell off that hit in 2012 and 2013. One of the drivers was a really tough compare against a monster FQ1/12 that saw a dramatic slowdown in sales and EPS growth. That was combined with the rise in perceived threat from Samsung. So for some time now, I have been wondering whether the huge q1/15 is a precursor to another sell off in late 15 or early 16. I think we have some buffers this time with the implosion of Samsung, the Watch, and a stronger ecosystem. But it still makes me wonder whether this recent monster quarter is going to set us up for the next sell off late this year or early next. I have been buy and hold since mid 2002, but I am seriously considering lightening or exiting my long term holdings during the relative good times we are now in. Interested in feedback on this line of thinking. Apple has a rather small marketshare in everything but the now declining stand alone music player. What do the numbers look like if Apple runs the table in both communications and computing? Is there a likely competitor on the horizon that we're not seeing because there sure isn't one at the moment. This is what keeps me fully invested in Apple but will admit that security is now more important to me than growth. Btw. The big difference today vs. 2012 is the political and economic environment outlook horizon is brighter. I don't think that Apples decline at that time was solely the forward looking revenue issue.
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Post by moltenfire on Feb 4, 2015 8:40:44 GMT -8
Given that it's Ex-Div tomorrow, I would expect that sellers who would normally sell today may wait until tomorrow to do so. So I won't be surprised that we go up today with an ATH intraday, and we go down tomorrow (probably by more than 0.47) to end of the week.
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