mark
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Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Feb 4, 2015 19:28:55 GMT -8
I am wondering what is different this time compared to the sell off that hit in 2012 and 2013. One of the drivers was a really tough compare against a monster FQ1/12 that saw a dramatic slowdown in sales and EPS growth. That was combined with the rise in perceived threat from Samsung. So for some time now, I have been wondering whether the huge q1/15 is a precursor to another sell off in late 15 or early 16. I think we have some buffers this time with the implosion of Samsung, the Watch, and a stronger ecosystem. But it still makes me wonder whether this recent monster quarter is going to set us up for the next sell off late this year or early next. I have been buy and hold since mid 2002, but I am seriously considering lightening or exiting my long term holdings during the relative good times we are now in. Interested in feedback on this line of thinking. Those who didn't do so in 2012/2013 like you are seriously considering to sell when AAPL hits $140s (trillion dollar market cap), make enough money so no need to take so much risk. Great minds think alike. I think even 149 is still a distance away from $1T market cap. It's only 800-something billion. "only" ... LOL
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Feb 4, 2015 19:35:53 GMT -8
The next 40-50% drop IS coming. Just a question of when. Sure. Nobody in their right mind would say that AAPL will never fall 40-50% again in the future. But, as you say, the big question is "when?" ... ... if it were to drop 50% now, then the P/E would be 8, and I won't even mention how many shares could be repurchased with $178B in cash. ... if it were to double over two years, and then drop by 50%, with earnings growing only 20% over the two years, then the P/E would be 12-13, and again, as the shares dropped sharply we can presume that there would be more shares repurchased. ... or some other scenario. Maybe iPhone sales plummet, earnings drop by 50%, stock drops as well of course. What is your best guess or prediction?
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Post by chasmac on Feb 4, 2015 21:14:25 GMT -8
A sign of the times, CME to close almost all of their floor trading pits. I have great memories of working on the floor in the late 70s. My favorite was of Harry the Hat Lowrence, one of the greatest traders and bigger than life. Getting a "comment" from him in the Cattle pit for a fresh-faced runner was scary as hell. He would grab you around the shoulder and yell above the din about Cargill buying or where the stops were, etc. You had to scribble it down while taking in an earful of spit. He'd take all the floor staff out for deep dish pizza, all the beer you could drink and a White Sox game. He'd ask Trivia questions and give away $100s like it was nothing, laughing the entire time! A great guy who came in off the street and made millions. The end of an era sadly. Part of Harry's story
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Post by geraci on Feb 4, 2015 21:27:59 GMT -8
... if it were to drop 50% now, then the P/E would be 8, and I won't even mention how many shares could be repurchased with $178B in cash. ... if it were to double over two years, and then drop by 50%, with earnings growing only 20% over the two years, then the P/E would be 12-13, and again, as the shares dropped sharply we can presume that there would be more shares repurchased. ... or some other scenario. Maybe iPhone sales plummet, earnings drop by 50%, stock drops as well of course. Mark, I like the way you think. One huge difference between now and 2012 is that Apple is buying shares when opportunities arise.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 4, 2015 22:00:50 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Feb 5, 2015 4:50:43 GMT -8
... The next 40-50% drop IS coming. Just a question of when... Same feeling... could be as early as after Watch launch. Will anyone be buying puts, bear spreads or shorting the stock? If I do get back into options, I would definitely be considering buying puts near the money not sure of how far out an expiration date. The timing would be around next earnings report assuming AAPL is setting more all time highs. I would not be selling my core position in AAPL but more like hedging with the belief Apple's revenue YOY will continue to increase In 2015 and 2016.
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