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Post by BillH on Feb 4, 2015 12:59:38 GMT -8
One last thing - for Artman or anyone else - the tech industry does have it's share of sexism but that's the case for many industries. When I started out in finance and worked on a trading floor - our risk traders had Playboy centerfolds taped on the walls behind them (a very long time ago - and it was a very respected firm I might add). I would have to go up and speak to them to trade or position a block of stock for an institutional client and I had Miss January staring back at me. It was long ago and things have gotten dramatically better. (By the way - none of it offended me - I knew what I was geting into and had a plan.) The key is that a female needs to assert herself and have the knowledge to back it up. Being bright, understanding your markets, providing insights, suggesting good/winning trades gets a female far. It all works out in the end. You earn respect somewhere along the line. Do we need to be better than the guy standing next to us? Shit, yeah. But heck, this has been going on since the beginning of time...let's not forget Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers. Astaire had all the fame and yet Ginger Rogers did everything he did - but in heels - and backwards! My point being - it is what it is and you just need to figure out how to work around it. Would like to point out that the male of the species also has to do better than the guy standing next to him to get ahead. Anyway, I always got a kick out of Ainsley's response to the question of Sexism. www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5DESMLUzk4
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Post by Lstream on Feb 4, 2015 13:13:45 GMT -8
I am not letting click baiters influence my thinking at all. And your point 1 is of no real use. How is that upgrade potential any different than any other product cycle? I suspect those percentages are very similar to what we were facing when the stock fell from 700ish to below 400. It's different because the userbase is increasing every second. 15% of 200 million customers is not the same as 15% of 400 million customers. Percentage revenue and EPS growth is what people care about, so no. Absolute numbers are not what matters.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 4, 2015 13:16:13 GMT -8
One last thing - for Artman or anyone else - the tech industry does have it's share of sexism but that's the case for many industries. When I started out in finance and worked on a trading floor - our risk traders had Playboy centerfolds taped on the walls behind them (a very long time ago - and it was a very respected firm I might add). I would have to go up and speak to them to trade or position a block of stock for an institutional client and I had Miss January staring back at me. It was long ago and things have gotten dramatically better. (By the way - none of it offended me - I knew what I was geting into and had a plan.) The key is that a female needs to assert herself and have the knowledge to back it up. Being bright, understanding your markets, providing insights, suggesting good/winning trades gets a female far. It all works out in the end. You earn respect somewhere along the line. Do we need to be better than the guy standing next to us? Shit, yeah. But heck, this has been going on since the beginning of time...let's not forget Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers. Astaire had all the fame and yet Ginger Rogers did everything he did - but in heels - and backwards! My point being - it is what it is and you just need to figure out how to work around it. Would like to point out that the male of the species also has to do better than the guy standing next to him to get ahead. Anyway, I always got a kick out of Ainsley's response to the question of Sexism. www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5DESMLUzk4Well - NOT if you were in the "Boys Club" - and yes, that DID exist.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 4, 2015 13:16:48 GMT -8
DAMN GREEKS!!!
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Post by tuffett on Feb 4, 2015 13:24:15 GMT -8
It's different because the userbase is increasing every second. 15% of 200 million customers is not the same as 15% of 400 million customers. Percentage revenue and EPS growth is what people care about, so no. Absolute numbers are not what matters. If 15% of a 200 million base upgrade in 2014, and 15% of a 300 million base upgrade in 2015, there will be more revenue and EPS from the 2015 upgrades. Numbers hypothetical, of course. If Tim Cook says two years from now that 15% of customers upgraded to iPhone 7, you can bet that it means a lot more than 74 million iPhones were sold. Read between the lines. I'd also make the comment that revenue and EPS are not all that matter. People certainly care about unit sales, margins etc.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 4, 2015 13:25:35 GMT -8
Could Apple be next? One can dream.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,557
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Post by mark on Feb 4, 2015 13:38:08 GMT -8
I've checked my options holdings, both long and short, and it appears that none are worth exercising to capture the dividend this time around. Unlike 6 months ago when I was assigned and had to pay a bunch of dividend, and 3 months ago when *I* exercised and received a bunch of extra dividend.
For example, Jan '16 57.14 calls, value today at close is 63.30 (last trade), 63.30+57.14 = 120.44, this is more than 119.56 + 0.47. Or Jan '16 71.43 calls, value today at close is 49.10, 49.10+71.43 = 120.53, more than 119.56 + 0.47.
Does that seem right to y'all?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 13:51:30 GMT -8
Dumped all my April 95s during the run. Bought some Julys and Jan 16s at the close with cash to BTFD tomorrow. If not, c'est la vie. Not worried about Greece too much. Tim can stroke a check for it. A February event rumor for Watch and MBA 12" needs a yep from Dalrymple.
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Post by macwire on Feb 4, 2015 13:54:32 GMT -8
Dumped all my April 95s during the run. Bought some Julys and Jan 16s at the close with cash to BTFD tomorrow. If not, c'est la vie. Not worried about Greece too much. Tim can stroke a check for it. A February event rumor for Watch and MBA 12" needs a yep from Dalrymple. Greek stuff entirely political is my understanding. Buying opp. Still annoying as #### tho.
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Post by Apple II+ on Feb 4, 2015 14:53:49 GMT -8
THESE ARE NOT THE DROIDS YOU WERE LOOKING FOR! Art, no Star Wars references allowed on this board, only Star Trek. Resistance is Futile. No Star Wars, no Apple.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Feb 4, 2015 15:09:33 GMT -8
It's different because the userbase is increasing every second. 15% of 200 million customers is not the same as 15% of 400 million customers. Percentage revenue and EPS growth is what people care about, so no. Absolute numbers are not what matters. Is it just me, or did you solicit the board for feedback re: your angst that this past blow-out quarter would set AAPL up for another big dive in a year only to then spend the rest of the day refuting anything anyone wrote in response? If you really feel that another 40 to 50% drop IS coming, then either live in fear, hedge, reduce holdings or sell out. Personally, I think this time is different. Apple is no longer the company it was three years ago.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 4, 2015 15:24:48 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Feb 4, 2015 15:34:06 GMT -8
AAPL will CORRECT. All stocks do.
Crash? That's entirely dependent on, well, any number of factors. Many of which have been well and truly ultra-mitigated (dividends, buybacks, share split, Uncle Carl and other patron investors, more and more and more cash, Android in the disarray we always suspected it was...)
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 4, 2015 15:37:30 GMT -8
Phoebe: are you concerned about the option market or the islands?
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Post by ericinaustin on Feb 4, 2015 15:38:20 GMT -8
It's different because the userbase is increasing every second. 15% of 200 million customers is not the same as 15% of 400 million customers. Percentage revenue and EPS growth is what people care about, so no. Absolute numbers are not what matters. EPS growth is what people care about if you want to hold a growth company and want a 10 bragger in a few years. Those company's sport P/E ratios in the mid to upper 20s or higher. AAPL hasn't been priced that way for a long time. However it's not hard to. Imagine them growing their earnings 20% a year for quite a few years and with the div. and the buybacks if the " value" holds steady your likely to see price appreciation of 25% a year or better. Find me another investment that has that kind of prospect with the same amount of confidence then we can talk.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 4, 2015 15:45:18 GMT -8
Percentage revenue and EPS growth is what people care about, so no. Absolute numbers are not what matters. Is it just me, or did you solicit the board for feedback re: your angst that this past blow-out quarter would set AAPL up for another big dive in a year only to then spend the rest of the day refuting anything anyone wrote in response? If you really feel that another 40 to 50% drop IS coming, then either live in fear, hedge, reduce holdings or sell out. Personally, I think this time is different. Apple is no longer the company it was three years ago. So I am supposed to just blindly accept people's optimistic opinions? If I don't agree with a particular optimistic point, you want me to just shut up? I provided some facts on what Apple Pay will not move the revenue needle. You have a problem with that too, or would rather just imagine that it will drive material revenue? You don't see me arguing about the points made re China. I get it. You would prefer an optimistic echo chamber? That is exactly why I pretty much never post anymore. For the most part people would rather just bitch when the stock is dropping, and cheer when it is rising. How useful.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 4, 2015 16:25:03 GMT -8
Is it just me, or did you solicit the board for feedback re: your angst that this past blow-out quarter would set AAPL up for another big dive in a year only to then spend the rest of the day refuting anything anyone wrote in response? If you really feel that another 40 to 50% drop IS coming, then either live in fear, hedge, reduce holdings or sell out. Personally, I think this time is different. Apple is no longer the company it was three years ago. So I am supposed to just blindly accept people's optimistic opinions? If I don't agree with a particular optimistic point, you want me to just shut up? I provided some facts on what Apple Pay will not move the revenue needle. You have a problem with that too, or would rather just imagine that it will drive material revenue? You don't see me arguing about the points made re China. I get it. You would prefer an optimistic echo chamber? That is exactly why I pretty much never post anymore. For the most part people would rather just bitch when the stock is dropping, and cheer when it is rising. How useful. I of all people have no problem with contrary opinions, since I often make them myself. But you're just wrong on this one, and you've yet to acknowledge it. How does a steady 15% upgrade rate to a rapidly increasing user base not represent increasing iPhone sales and thereby increasing revenue and increasing EPS? This is not a matter of opinion - it's mathematics. If Apple has an iPhone user base of 1 billion down the road (sounds crazy but it's entirely feasible) and 15% upgrade, that's 150 million iPhones, or twice what they just reported. Think that wouldn't impact revenues and earnings just a little bit?
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Feb 4, 2015 16:59:44 GMT -8
Is it just me, or did you solicit the board for feedback re: your angst that this past blow-out quarter would set AAPL up for another big dive in a year only to then spend the rest of the day refuting anything anyone wrote in response? If you really feel that another 40 to 50% drop IS coming, then either live in fear, hedge, reduce holdings or sell out. Personally, I think this time is different. Apple is no longer the company it was three years ago. So I am supposed to just blindly accept people's optimistic opinions? If I don't agree with a particular optimistic point, you want me to just shut up? I provided some facts on what Apple Pay will not move the revenue needle. You have a problem with that too, or would rather just imagine that it will drive material revenue? You don't see me arguing about the points made re China. I get it. You would prefer an optimistic echo chamber? That is exactly why I pretty much never post anymore. For the most part people would rather just bitch when the stock is dropping, and cheer when it is rising. How useful. No, I don't want you to blindly agree. No, I don't want you to shut up. No, I don't prefer an optimistic echo chamber. And no, I never brought up Apple Pay. I'm just not sure what you were after. You expressed concern about Apple dropping in the future right after the most profitable quarter ever and did not seem to want to hear anyone's positive thoughts - only someone to agree with you. Perhaps it was my perception of your tone as being dismissive. Regardless, I certainly don't want to suppress your thoughts in favor of unicorns and rainbows.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 4, 2015 17:07:18 GMT -8
Is it just me, or did you solicit the board for feedback re: your angst that this past blow-out quarter would set AAPL up for another big dive in a year only to then spend the rest of the day refuting anything anyone wrote in response? If you really feel that another 40 to 50% drop IS coming, then either live in fear, hedge, reduce holdings or sell out. Personally, I think this time is different. Apple is no longer the company it was three years ago. So I am supposed to just blindly accept people's optimistic opinions? If I don't agree with a particular optimistic point, you want me to just shut up? I provided some facts on what Apple Pay will not move the revenue needle. You have a problem with that too, or would rather just imagine that it will drive material revenue? You don't see me arguing about the points made re China. I get it. You would prefer an optimistic echo chamber? That is exactly why I pretty much never post anymore. For the most part people would rather just bitch when the stock is dropping, and cheer when it is rising. How useful. My primary concern in the next year isn't that YOY EPS wont' look good. It will because of the Iphone 6 success and the effect of the buyback, and the cash. But as Apple rolls forward it becomes more of a target, available for politcal ends. The perceived impact on its valuation of an event, like a tiff with China's government, would get played up more than would be true for any other company because Apple "only makes one thing". There will always be an effor to force this stock's price to move one way or the other, usually down, for reasons other than its fundamental value. FUD drives pageviews. Apple may be the best corporate citizen in the world, but it is still a big and easy target for everybody with an agenda.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 4, 2015 17:32:51 GMT -8
Percentage revenue and EPS growth is what people care about, so no. Absolute numbers are not what matters. EPS growth is what people care about if you want to hold a growth company and want a 10 bragger in a few years. Those company's sport P/E ratios in the mid to upper 20s or higher. AAPL hasn't been priced that way for a long time. However it's not hard to. Imagine them growing their earnings 20% a year for quite a few years and with the div. and the buybacks if the " value" holds steady your likely to see price appreciation of 25% a year or better. Find me another investment that has that kind of prospect with the same amount of confidence then we can talk. 10 bragger. I don't know if that is intentionally hilarious, or a typo, but hilarious nonetheless. "Ha ha ha, I have a 10 bragger and you don't!" #tautological
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Post by ericinaustin on Feb 4, 2015 17:37:15 GMT -8
EPS growth is what people care about if you want to hold a growth company and want a 10 bragger in a few years. Those company's sport P/E ratios in the mid to upper 20s or higher. AAPL hasn't been priced that way for a long time. However it's not hard to. Imagine them growing their earnings 20% a year for quite a few years and with the div. and the buybacks if the " value" holds steady your likely to see price appreciation of 25% a year or better. Find me another investment that has that kind of prospect with the same amount of confidence then we can talk. 10 bragger. I don't know if that is intentionally hilarious, or a typo, but hilarious nonetheless. "Ha ha ha, I have a 10 bragger and you don't!" #tautological Typo. " bagger". As in tea bagger.
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Feb 4, 2015 17:39:02 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Feb 4, 2015 17:46:21 GMT -8
Bill Wyman of Evercore was on Bloomberg this morning discussing Apple's sustainability. Basically said Apple will do well for the next few quarters but can't continue beyond. I am wondering what is different this time compared to the sell off that hit in 2012 and 2013. One of the drivers was a really tough compare against a monster FQ1/12 that saw a dramatic slowdown in sales and EPS growth. That was combined with the rise in perceived threat from Samsung. So for some time now, I have been wondering whether the huge q1/15 is a precursor to another sell off in late 15 or early 16. I think we have some buffers this time with the implosion of Samsung, the Watch, and a stronger ecosystem. But it still makes me wonder whether this recent monster quarter is going to set us up for the next sell off late this year or early next. I have been buy and hold since mid 2002, but I am seriously considering lightening or exiting my long term holdings during the relative good times we are now in. Interested in feedback on this line of thinking. Those who didn't do so in 2012/2013 like you are seriously considering to sell when AAPL hits $140s (trillion dollar market cap), make enough money so no need to take so much risk. Great minds think alike.
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Post by edtech on Feb 4, 2015 17:48:58 GMT -8
If AAPL revenues are 70% from iPhones (and they are in the Christmas quarter), and if China is eclipsing the American market in terms of iPhone sales, I believe Apple's future growth rests in what the growth ramp looks like in China. Once the majority of the android users in the US switch over within the next 12-18 months, the US market will be mostly saturated. What we are all familiar in the US market with its subsidized model and history of user refreshing every 2 years may not necessarily hold in China. Because we are just getting to know what the China Mobile market looks like, I think there is a lot of uncharted territory ahead.
Case in point, if iPhone sales in China are bigger than US, and China's biggest sales quarter is the 2nd quarter (due to Chinese/Lunar New Years), this is going eventually result in the 2nd quarter eclipsing the 1st quarter (Christmas) - at least in Phone sales. What may be less clear is what is the typical upgrade cycle of Chinese smarthphone/iPhone users. Do they typically upgrade on a 2 year cycle like the American market, or do they follow a different model?
How does the growth of the China market impact YOY comparisons of the Christmas quarter? How does the gradual shift in prominence from the Christmas quarter to the Lunar New Years quarter affect YOY comparisons? How long will it take China Mobile to saturate it's user base with iPhones? I think these questions will impact YOY comparisons more than anything else...
What do you think?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 17:56:31 GMT -8
I'm working a 10 bragger this year. It feels wunnerful....
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Post by mace on Feb 4, 2015 17:56:34 GMT -8
... The next 40-50% drop IS coming. Just a question of when... Same feeling... could be as early as after Watch launch.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 4, 2015 18:01:43 GMT -8
If AAPL revenues are 70% from iPhones (and they are in the Christmas quarter), and if China is eclipsing the American market in terms of iPhone sales, I believe Apple's future growth rests in what the growth ramp looks like in China. Once the majority of the android users in the US switch over within the next 12-18 months, the US market will be mostly saturated. What we are all familiar in the US market with its subsidized model and history of user refreshing every 2 years may not necessarily hold in China. Because we are just getting to know what the China Mobile market looks like, I think there is a lot of uncharted territory ahead. Case in point, if iPhone sales in China are bigger than US, and China's biggest sales quarter is the 2nd quarter (due to Chinese/Lunar New Years), this is going eventually result in the 2nd quarter eclipsing the 1st quarter (Christmas) - at least in Phone sales. What may be less clear is what is the typical upgrade cycle of Chinese smarthphone/iPhone users. Do they typically upgrade on a 2 year cycle like the American market, or do they follow a different model? How does the growth of the China market impact YOY comparisons of the Christmas quarter? How does the gradual shift in prominence from the Christmas quarter to the Lunar New Years quarter affect YOY comparisons? How long will it take China Mobile to saturate it's user base with iPhones? I think these questions will impact YOY comparisons more than anything else... What do you think? Yes. And it's why I think even Q2 this year will surprise. Welcome to the forum. You can say in 2 posts what takes Mav like fiddy. And stop bragging Mercel.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 4, 2015 18:08:00 GMT -8
Doesn't it strike you odd that the ECB made those comments at 3:45 pm ? It was almost 10 pm over there. Why did they wait so long? ...and just in time to move our markets. Doesn't sound right.
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Post by firestorm on Feb 4, 2015 18:48:40 GMT -8
... The next 40-50% drop IS coming. Just a question of when... Same feeling... could be as early as after Watch launch. That's what I'm feeling as well. There is comparatively little financial gain for AAPL from the Apple Watch, but there are huge potential downsides for the first month after introduction, when the anti-Apple media start harping on the perceived lack of sales. I remember, after the iPhone initially launched some seven or eight years ago, visiting my in-laws, who remarked to me after watching a lot of CNBC that Apple bungled the initial iPhone rollout badly. I knew that wasn't true, but the business media had a field day with the lack of a physical keyboard and the cost of the phone. And you KNOW that there will be similar critiques of the Apple Watch initially, as analysts and potential customers wonder how this thing will be useful and a theme will emerge that Apple has lost its edge. I'm feeling cynical tonight, and that's without a drink. If I haven't sold a lot of my AAPL holdings prior to the watch intro, just hit me with a mallet and put me out of my misery.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 19:16:44 GMT -8
The media and WS views Apple's future darker than the inkiest black. It's bullshit. Unless Apple includes a Fountain of Youth app inside the watch, a positive reception by the media is wishful thinking. That is why I'm 40% cash today. I do think there's an anticipation rally with the new product, but I won't be waiting for $140 PPS, Carl Icahn's opinion notwithstanding. Consider that the talking heads actually believe they're qualified to speak about valuation. They're not. I wouldn't trust them with yesterday's weather. I am still waiting for someone to shine a light on these charlatans. If that opportunity still exists when I retire, I'll do it. John Gruber does it on occasion; I wish he had a separate page dedicated to past honorees, like Ed Zabitsky who couldn't ad lib a fart after a baked bean dinner, let alone give a price target.
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