|
Post by rosie on Oct 19, 2012 13:50:02 GMT -8
So as far as the mini iPad - I'm guessing no one really cares. They announce it - tepid applause - on to the next? There won't be one more thing....gone are the days of little surprises and AAPL's greatness with the death of Jobs?.....It seems like that is the vibe I'm getting from other threads. What say you? Phoebes, there's a whole current generation and a few more coming of age to use iDevices who really don't know who SJ was...they just want the hottest thing going that works for them for music,games, texting, talking and teleporting when we get there eventually. Apple is quality and innovation. That hasn't gone away by any means. this has been a very disappointing week (an understatement for sure) but one always has to remember that Apple and AAPL live in slightly different universes and eventually the first takes care of the second. I wish I had some cash to buy right now but I used it all up in that big "sale" around $652. I have so much to learn.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,633
|
Post by 4aapl on Oct 19, 2012 13:51:23 GMT -8
This has gotten ridiculous. Subtract the 123 from today's closing price 610-123=487. Then dividing that by 42.5 leaves a P/E of 11.45. How is a company with no debt, high product demand and a loyal customer base priced like this? Please give me some input because this make absolutely no sense. This does not even factor in the forward P/E. yes, I am about to lose it. The market isn't always (often?) rational, and life isn't always fair. Surely this isn't the first time you've felt this way about AAPL. There's always been something. There haven't been that many times over the last 15 years that AAPL has been priced fairly. Then again, over that period there have been a lot of 50+% years for AAPL gains. With quite a bit of P/E compression behind us when compared to biggies like XOM, there should be a lot more price appreciation per profit appreciation in the coming 2-5 years. And so it comes down to if Apple can keep it's YOY profit increases in the mid double digits, the stock can still have some great increases. Even if it's unlikely to be fairly priced by many metrics standards. (personally, for mere stock increase the only way their cash is going to significantly affect it is if they make some significant buybacks....though I like that they have cash and would like them to keep a decent amount)
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Oct 19, 2012 14:03:19 GMT -8
That's four consecutive Fridays when AAPL has finished red. Looking forward 12 months, I estimate that the cash adjusted PER is now less than 7...
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 19, 2012 14:10:16 GMT -8
I sure hope Apple is buying AAPL today.
|
|
|
Post by johng on Oct 19, 2012 14:22:03 GMT -8
Nov '12 700s were way too tempting today to pass up. What the heck, right? Nov 700's eh ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Best of luck to you with those.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 19, 2012 14:27:07 GMT -8
Here is what I would like to know, what company out there has $123 standing behind every share? This has gotten ridiculous. Subtract the 123 from today's closing price 610-123=487. Then dividing that by 42.5 leaves a P/E of 11.45. How is a company with no debt, high product demand and a loyal customer base priced like this? Please give me some input because this make absolutely no sense. This does not even factor in the forward P/E. yes, I am about to lose it. I am sitting out to dinner with my hubby and we are staring into our Peronis - he goes into this diatribe about AAPL - then I open my iPhone and read this and it is almost WORD FOR WORD what he just said. Whoa! The only thing he added was that the growth rate versus the multiple makes zero sense as well.
|
|
|
Post by Apple II+ on Oct 19, 2012 14:32:23 GMT -8
Here is what I would like to know, what company out there has $123 standing behind every share? This has gotten ridiculous. Subtract the 123 from today's closing price 610-123=487. Then dividing that by 42.5 leaves a P/E of 11.45. How is a company with no debt, high product demand and a loyal customer base priced like this? Please give me some input because this make absolutely no sense. This does not even factor in the forward P/E. yes, I am about to lose it. the indignation discount
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 19, 2012 14:35:36 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by podboy on Oct 19, 2012 14:38:48 GMT -8
I currently have 123 shares. Plan is to sell 23 of them on Monday and roll them into Feb 13 625-650 BCS. If AAPL trades for 653 by February it's a 153% return. My first option trade, wish me luck.
|
|
|
Post by macziggy on Oct 19, 2012 14:41:52 GMT -8
I'm thinking that the selling today resulted from the big tech misses of the week, ending with GOOG and MSFT. I'm feeling twinges of paranoia that someone knows something I don't regarding Apple's earnings. But even if that's the case, then that play has just been made, and a miss is priced into the stock, making today a good buying opportunity, and Monday perhaps an even better one. Unfortunately, Apple insiders have been leaking all year. So, when there is a serious drop in the stock that has to be one of the considerations (and also, a huge rise). Someone knows something, probably about earnings this time. Could Apple possibly miss another earnings report? Unthinkable while Jobs was alive...not so with Cook. I refuse to panic. I've set stop limits on most of my recent purchases and still have 30% cash thanks to that. But the January options I do have, have basically imploded, which I think was a major reason for the big drop today--just kill them now. Will the stock see 700 before February? Not if you look at what happened at the 644-top and the 4 months it took to reclaim it. Apple hasn't managed the debut of the iPhone 5 all that well, and, this certainly is reflected in the current action. This was a previously impeccable company. Just.....WoW! It's April all over again, staring us in the face.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 19, 2012 14:52:27 GMT -8
macZiggy,
Can you tell us what you think is wrong with the iPhone 5 launch?
|
|
|
Post by kloot on Oct 19, 2012 15:29:56 GMT -8
Not if you look at what happened at the 644-top and the 4 months it took to reclaim it. ... It's April all over again, staring us in the face. disagree. from the may bottom (which is a better comparison than april top, since we should be at or close to the bottom) it surpassed the previous ATH in less than 3 months, and that was in a 'doldrum' period for the stock in terms of iPhone release schedule. now we have iPhone 5 and iPad mini sales coming for the next 2 quarters? everyone last year said it wouldn't retake 400 when it was sitting in the 350s and 360s in late fall.
|
|
|
Post by seabiscuit on Oct 19, 2012 15:30:43 GMT -8
I have had similar thoughts. Not sure if a miss is entirely priced in though. Either way, I don't see us breaking the SMA200 unless we have a disastrous quarter or the overall market tanks. I agree, except I used all my dry powder already. Are we all wrong here and Kass is right? If so, please help me grasp it. Remembe if Kass is right on Apple it will be the first time. I don't think he is right this time- his arguement is just too shallow. If Kass keeps on calling for a "permanent" Apple downfall there might be a time when he is right, but he is not right today and he will not be right next week. The Apple story is still in the early innings and they have the bases loaded (with cash, brand, supply chain, patents and an innovative culture) and nobody out. Don't fret my friends and don't panic. This will pass.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2012 15:57:09 GMT -8
I'd just like to thank the shitty developers of Charles Schwab's Street Smart Pro platform for their program crashing today before I could open any orders. Back in 2003 Chuck turned his nose up at my paltry, low 5 figure IRA. "We only handle RICH folks portfolios, don'tcha know." I've been with Etrade for the last 4000% in gains. In 2004 I interviewed several brokerages before opening my $500 account. Between Scottrade and Schwab I don't know which was the more condescending. I went with OptionsXpress which was recently purchased by Schwab. Immediately after, policies and practices began changing, making it harder to trade as before.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2012 16:28:12 GMT -8
Not if you look at what happened at the 644-top and the 4 months it took to reclaim it. ... It's April all over again, staring us in the face. disagree. from the may bottom (which is a better comparison than april top, since we should be at or close to the bottom) it surpassed the previous ATH in less than 3 months, and that was in a 'doldrum' period for the stock in terms of iPhone release schedule. now we have iPhone 5 and iPad mini sales coming for the next 2 quarters? everyone last year said it wouldn't retake 400 when it was sitting in the 350s and 360s in late fall. Since the beginning of fiscal 2010 the average period between ATHs has been 82 days. The period between the last 4 ATHs has expanded to 100 days. Where a string of ATHs are printed in quick succession, I treat them as a continuation of the same run and count the last ATH in the string as the official ATH. That's 3 years of history (no direct link to the future), however, given the history we should see a new ATH before the year end. My guess is before the end of October, with another ATH before the end of the year.
|
|
|
Post by nate010203 on Oct 19, 2012 16:39:42 GMT -8
disagree. from the may bottom (which is a better comparison than april top, since we should be at or close to the bottom) it surpassed the previous ATH in less than 3 months, and that was in a 'doldrum' period for the stock in terms of iPhone release schedule. now we have iPhone 5 and iPad mini sales coming for the next 2 quarters? everyone last year said it wouldn't retake 400 when it was sitting in the 350s and 360s in late fall. Since the beginning of fiscal 2010 the average period between ATHs has been 82 days. The period between the last 4 ATHs has expanded to 100 days. Where a string of ATHs are printed in quick succession, I treat them as a continuation of the same run and count the last ATH in the string as the official ATH. That's 3 years of history (no direct link to the future), however, given the history we should see a new ATH before the year end. My guess is before the end of October, with another ATH before the end of the year. You think that apple will move 95 points up between now and end of the month? That is 8 trading days. At this rate ending the month at 650+ would be a miracle.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 19, 2012 16:47:12 GMT -8
Gregg, seriously, an ATH high before the end of October. I know on the west coast it is used for "medicinal purposes", but man, you gotta lay off that stuff.
I can't compare where we are now to April, sometime in May, hopefully around the 19th. I have just decided to buckle down. Around 585 is the 200 DMA and it seems a given at this point. Heck, the way the market tanked today it could come Monday or Tuesday. Baring anything crazy, Apple should be able to report at least $9.50 on Thursday. Assuming they beat last qtr's number (which is not a given) They will have a few days to get the p/e down below 14, but on Thursday the price should have bottomed. I am going to take my chances with Apple having a p/e of 14 x 45 ttm which gives us 630. Nothing great, but at least a foundation to build on.
Here is the crazy thing 13 x 45 = 585. (200DMA) Go figure.
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 19, 2012 16:49:50 GMT -8
You think that apple will move 95 points up between now and end of the month? That is 8 trading days. That's the way Apple moves up when it does. At this rate ending the month at 650+ would be a miracle. Nate, things go up and down. That's the way it is. But with Apple the long-term trend is up, meaning ups are larger than downs.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Oct 19, 2012 17:01:27 GMT -8
disagree. from the may bottom (which is a better comparison than april top, since we should be at or close to the bottom) it surpassed the previous ATH in less than 3 months, and that was in a 'doldrum' period for the stock in terms of iPhone release schedule. now we have iPhone 5 and iPad mini sales coming for the next 2 quarters? everyone last year said it wouldn't retake 400 when it was sitting in the 350s and 360s in late fall. Since the beginning of fiscal 2010 the average period between ATHs has been 82 days. The period between the last 4 ATHs has expanded to 100 days. Where a string of ATHs are printed in quick succession, I treat them as a continuation of the same run and count the last ATH in the string as the official ATH. That's 3 years of history (no direct link to the future), however, given the history we should see a new ATH before the year end. My guess is before the end of October, with another ATH before the end of the year. I sincerely hope you are right. I have Jan 13 655/660 & Jan 13 655/680 calls I didn't roll out to Apr. I was sure AAPL would be above 700 by the end of December and bases on my spread sheet still should be, but anything below a P/E of 13 at the end of the year will increase my anxiety.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 17:08:44 GMT -8
macZiggy, Can you tell us what you think is wrong with the iPhone 5 launch? It was an iPhone 4-like situation. Brand new design and mostly new componentry and insane demand - getting to the point where 3-day sales can only get so high. We may even be approaching the point where initial production ramp-up can only reach a certain level. iPhone 5S is the fairer compare to iPhone 4S.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 19, 2012 17:13:30 GMT -8
I have be buying the short legs of my BCS a little at a time. I even sold a little stock to do so. The gains are too tempting... Just don't look at your account balance until we start heading north again, because you will be unpleasantly shocked. I bought a few back when we were in the high 600's, and had to ride some long calls down, except the times when I sold a lower priced call to create a bear call spread. What's been kind of cool is that when you buy the short call back at these lower prices, you can sell the call again when it rises; this kind of up and down action really helps with generating cash flow.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 17:14:26 GMT -8
'Course, that strategy also requires you monitor your short-term gains, because buying back a short call cheaper counts as a gain though it won't necessarily feel like it.
|
|
|
Post by macziggy on Oct 19, 2012 17:26:25 GMT -8
macZiggy, Can you tell us what you think is wrong with the iPhone 5 launch? 1. Not enough available. That's a big issue. Why? 2. Lots had defects and were returned for another unit. Quality control at first was a big issue. 3. The map issue. 4. Issue with many European and Australian iPhone 5s that did not turn off cellular service when appropriate, resulting in huge bills for some. Might be an issue with their carriers but it sounds like an iPhone issue. 5. Tim Cook's public apology. Really? Was that necessary? I have been a stockholder since 2006. I love Apple products. I am a photographer and there are no products better for post-production work (the iPhone's camera is better than all of my pre-2004 professional cameras). I did not expect so many issues with this great phone. I think the issues have contributed to the stock's huge drop. I can see this reversing. I don't really think they will miss earnings estimates. And, when that happens, that may be the spark that the whole market needs to curb whatever correction may unfold next week.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 17:30:54 GMT -8
1) Expected. It's an iPhone 4-style launch. If you have an iPhone 5, you can appreciate how hard it must be to manufacture one of 'em.
2) Signal-noise ratio not determined. See also: iPhone 4 antennagate/breaking glass/yellowscreengate.
3) Doesn't seem to matter much, really, if those shipping times are any indication. See also: Antennagate. Obviously, BIG PR snafu that I expect to see corrected.
4) Hasn't really made those Mac news sites I check
5) Do what is right = subjective interpretation left to Tim Cook and Co. = not do what Steve would do.
S'mostly FUD. My iPhone 5 is great! (My new iPad 3, literally? That's another story...and no one reported on my woes there!)
AAPL will drop when it does. You just gotta do the best you can. And agreed, don't bet against AAPL long term. The selloff can't continue forever, IMHO.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 19, 2012 18:06:03 GMT -8
Trying to find a silver lining in the weekly chart. Only two times in the last 3 years has AAPL had 4 down weeks. Now and 2 years ago. I did not go back to 2008 because that was a special circumstance. Also, on the weekly chart, AAPL does not stay under 50 on the RSI long. We are below.
Throwing out the nonsense, the market is the big concern right now. We have had 2 brutal days of lousy earnings. I can understand the logic that if all these other big companies are struggling, then Apple must be, we shall see. The VZ number actually has me optimistic about the qtr's iphone numbers. Nothing crazy, just maintaining the 26 mil from last qtr. This would be a fine YOY gain. T reports Tuesday morning, that will be Custer's last stand.
|
|
|
Post by macziggy on Oct 19, 2012 18:07:47 GMT -8
1) Expected. It's an iPhone 4-style launch. If you have an iPhone 5, you can appreciate how hard it must be to manufacture one of 'em. 2) Signal-noise ratio not determined. See also: iPhone 4 antennagate/breaking glass/yellowscreengate. 3) Doesn't seem to matter much, really, if those shipping times are any indication. See also: Antennagate. Obviously, BIG PR snafu that I expect to see corrected. 4) Hasn't really made those Mac news sites I check 5) Do what is right = subjective interpretation left to Tim Cook and Co. = not do what Steve would do. S'mostly FUD. My iPhone 5 is great! (My new iPad 3, literally? That's another story...and no one reported on my woes there!) AAPL will drop when it does. You just gotta do the best you can. And agreed, don't bet against AAPL long term. The selloff can't continue forever, IMHO. Thanks for your good points!! I agree with a lot of them, especially with your point that it is similar to the iPhone 4 roll-out. But, I would expect that Apple would get better at this by now. Had to laugh because just now, I got an email from Apple telling me that I have to bring in my iMac 26" because the hard drive will soon fail. I've had my iMac for 12 months and already had the hard drive replaced once 3 months ago. So, I just had to shake my head because now I have to take it back and get another one installed. I used to think this machine was the only "bargain" I've ever gotten from Apple because it is superb and beautiful and only $1800. But, this hard drive issue is really a pain I did not anticipate. And, it's HEAVY to carry it into the store. I had originally wanted to replace my MacPro with a new Mac Pro but Apple hasn't updated that line in at least two years if not three so I settled for the iMac (still have the older MacPro which has been flawless). Anyway, sorry, I'm slightly irritated that I have to take this machine back in. I have had Macs since 1988. BTW, I have a trend line that goes from 644 through 620 and heads for 590ish. That's where I, personally, think it's going. Of course, I could be wrong and it might go lower. I was onboard during that disastrous drop from $200 in 2008 to $79. So, I'm cautious. Don't want to see that again.
|
|
|
Post by kloot on Oct 19, 2012 18:11:34 GMT -8
Since the beginning of fiscal 2010 the average period between ATHs has been 82 days. The period between the last 4 ATHs has expanded to 100 days. Where a string of ATHs are printed in quick succession, I treat them as a continuation of the same run and count the last ATH in the string as the official ATH. That's 3 years of history (no direct link to the future), however, given the history we should see a new ATH before the year end. My guess is before the end of October, with another ATH before the end of the year. You think that apple will move 95 points up between now and end of the month? That is 8 trading days. At this rate ending the month at 650+ would be a miracle. a miracle? it was over 650 two days ago. heck, it was 640s yesterday morning.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 18:17:15 GMT -8
My next iMac will have an SSD. I've accumulated just enough Apple dividends over the years to upgrade to those, given how much better flash storage is now. Trends are trends until they aren't. Downtrends never seem to get past that hardened core of AAPL known as valuation. And as I'm sure Mercel over at Braeburn must be shouting from the top of his lungs, AAPL is on sale. A steal relative to its peer group. And WS knows it. That's why 520 was as low as we got in May 2012 and why 570 was as low as we got in July (with a little help from iPhone 5 rumors).
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 18:20:16 GMT -8
Oh, and macZiggy, I gotta say, it's refreshing to be able to counterpoint without someone seeing it as a personal attack!
LOLOL OK enough of the salmon fishing ghost
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 19, 2012 18:25:26 GMT -8
LOLOL OK enough of the salmon fishing ghost Alright already! It didn't take me long to grok the personality disorder that was at work, but now I've got to ask: what are all the salmon references about???
|
|