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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 19, 2012 18:32:54 GMT -8
Since the beginning of fiscal 2010 the average period between ATHs has been 82 days. The period between the last 4 ATHs has expanded to 100 days. Where a string of ATHs are printed in quick succession, I treat them as a continuation of the same run and count the last ATH in the string as the official ATH. That's 3 years of history (no direct link to the future), however, given the history we should see a new ATH before the year end. My guess is before the end of October, with another ATH before the end of the year. You think that apple will move 95 points up between now and end of the month? That is 8 trading days. At this rate ending the month at 650+ would be a miracle. Congrats on making a post that makes sense!
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Post by Lstream on Oct 19, 2012 18:35:31 GMT -8
LOLOL OK enough of the salmon fishing ghost Alright already! It didn't take me long to grok the personality disorder that was at work, but now I've got to ask: what are all the salmon references about??? In a previous incarnation, our hero spent time in Newfoundland salmon fishing. Even invited a fellow AFB'er to join him. That was followed by a big time dust up with that same member, and led to him being tossed out of the forum. Voila - smoked salmon.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 18:51:09 GMT -8
I see what you did there. +1
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Post by macziggy on Oct 19, 2012 18:56:44 GMT -8
Oh, and macZiggy, I gotta say, it's refreshing to be able to counterpoint without someone seeing it as a personal attack! LOLOL OK enough of the salmon fishing ghost Thanks, MAV....always love your insights and posts. Discussion is very good!!
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 19:02:16 GMT -8
You're free to not use all caps. I'm not HAL.
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Post by rosie on Oct 19, 2012 19:47:06 GMT -8
You're free to not use all caps. I'm not HAL. well don't tell Siri about that...maybe she's infatuated with Hal-ness? (only kidding...) I love Siri. She's always doing helpful things .
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 19, 2012 20:09:17 GMT -8
I've had my iMac for 12 months and already had the hard drive replaced once 3 months ago. So, I just had to shake my head because now I have to take it back and get another one installed. I used to think this machine was the only "bargain" I've ever gotten from Apple because it is superb and beautiful and only $1800. But, this hard drive issue is really a pain I did not anticipate. As you know, Apple doesn't make the HDs it uses. There was a reliability issue with the seagate 1 TB drives in the iMacs, and so there is a recall on them. Of course you are free to wait and see if yours ends up having a problem, but I'd suggest a tight backup schedule if going that route. Apple does make mistakes, though normally it makes them less often that it's competitors. But in this case, the blame should be on drive manufacturer, even if it does affect your iMac.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 19, 2012 20:17:34 GMT -8
Since the beginning of fiscal 2010 the average period between ATHs has been 82 days. The period between the last 4 ATHs has expanded to 100 days. Where a string of ATHs are printed in quick succession, I treat them as a continuation of the same run and count the last ATH in the string as the official ATH. That's 3 years of history (no direct link to the future), however, given the history we should see a new ATH before the year end. My guess is before the end of October, with another ATH before the end of the year. I looked at a similar thing in the last week, but instead looking for the timeperiod between ATH's, I looked at the period where AAPL was not up. With the 3 year chart, the longest time when AAPL was not up was about 5 months, on 2 different occasions. And then a couple 4 month periods, and then some shorter ones. This basically matches your 100 day observation, but instead of looking at all time highs, (which would extend the timeframe since if AAPL got back to match it's ATH after 4 months but then climbed for another month, you'd call that 5 months), it is looking at the maximum timeframe in the past 3 years where if you bought stock, you might at most be underwater. Likewise, my use was with options, in that if I bought an ATM spread at least 6 months out anytime in the past 3 years, it would always be profitable. While the future doesn't always follow the past, it gave me a little more hope last week when making some purchases, as it would now too.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 19, 2012 20:46:51 GMT -8
here is a question- how quickly will I slam shots at happy hour after work in order to forget about this nonsense? Here's another. Do we need a beat on Thursday to avoid being punished by WS? Or is it all about guidance? This is exhausting. I'm at Defcon 2 and will reach Defcon 1 if we're down again next week.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 19, 2012 21:16:19 GMT -8
disagree. from the may bottom (which is a better comparison than april top, since we should be at or close to the bottom) it surpassed the previous ATH in less than 3 months, and that was in a 'doldrum' period for the stock in terms of iPhone release schedule. now we have iPhone 5 and iPad mini sales coming for the next 2 quarters? everyone last year said it wouldn't retake 400 when it was sitting in the 350s and 360s in late fall. Since the beginning of fiscal 2010 the average period between ATHs has been 82 days. The period between the last 4 ATHs has expanded to 100 days. Where a string of ATHs are printed in quick succession, I treat them as a continuation of the same run and count the last ATH in the string as the official ATH. That's 3 years of history (no direct link to the future), however, given the history we should see a new ATH before the year end. My guess is before the end of October, with another ATH before the end of the year. I remember a quarter not so long ago when Gregg consistently and freakishly nailed the AAPL price action week after week. A new ATH within 8 trading days is a very bold call... veritable crystal balls, Gregg. Somehow I don't feel it's out of the realm of possibility and I'd be ecstatic on Oct. 31 to toast a NEW ATH and further confirmation that you ain't no hollow weenie!
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 19, 2012 22:40:43 GMT -8
Since the beginning of fiscal 2010 the average period between ATHs has been 82 days. The period between the last 4 ATHs has expanded to 100 days. Where a string of ATHs are printed in quick succession, I treat them as a continuation of the same run and count the last ATH in the string as the official ATH. That's 3 years of history (no direct link to the future), however, given the history we should see a new ATH before the year end. My guess is before the end of October, with another ATH before the end of the year. I remember a quarter not so long ago when Gregg consistently and freakishly nailed the AAPL price action week after week. A new ATH within 8 trading days is a very bold call... veritable crystal balls, Gregg. Somehow I don't feel it's out of the realm of possibility and I'd be ecstatic on Oct. 31 to toast a NEW ATH and further confirmation that you ain't no hollow weenie! I 2nd the motion since I bought 20 November 700's today at $3.20. If Gregg is right they should be up 200%+ in a few days. Wish I knew what Sponge and Nate were guessing though because I remember a few years when Sponge's WAG's were the best contraindicators we had.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 19, 2012 23:22:47 GMT -8
You're free to not use all caps. I'm not HAL. So sorry. My brother's initials are MAV, so, I automatically go there!!! He always capitalizes. But, in the future, you will always be lower case with me...Mav! :-) I always smile every time I see your handle! You're not my brother....are you? HaHaHa! Michael..... ??
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Post by macziggy on Oct 19, 2012 23:35:16 GMT -8
I've had my iMac for 12 months and already had the hard drive replaced once 3 months ago. So, I just had to shake my head because now I have to take it back and get another one installed. I used to think this machine was the only "bargain" I've ever gotten from Apple because it is superb and beautiful and only $1800. But, this hard drive issue is really a pain I did not anticipate. As you know, Apple doesn't make the HDs it uses. There was a reliability issue with the seagate 1 TB drives in the iMacs, and so there is a recall on them. Of course you are free to wait and see if yours ends up having a problem, but I'd suggest a tight backup schedule if going that route. Apple does make mistakes, though normally it makes them less often that it's competitors. But in this case, the blame should be on drive manufacturer, even if it does affect your iMac. Yes, I know. I have had at least 35 Mac computers in 25 years. Some have been better than others. I could actually list the various computers and their problems as I am nerdy in that way. But you would be pissed if I listed each and every one I have ever owned. It's a long list!! This recall is for Seagate 1T hard drives. But, as I said, my original one was replaced 3 months ago....with another Seagate 1T hard drive. Not very smart for Apple. The iMac, which I actually love, is really hot--steaming hot almost--and is starting to have the same issues as the original problems that lead to the harddrive exchange. Argh..... For me, that means a 40 minute drive to an Apple Store. Then carry the huge computer in...again. Then wait a week until it's fixed. Then, spend a day reloading everything that has been backed up. It's very frustrating if you have been a long time Apple user. Anyway, one thing that would make me feel a lot better is if the stock price stabilized and stopped its free fall. That would make me---all of us---very happy! (Oh...and, if they reported EPS of $10+, I'd be thrilled...iMac problems....what iMac problems!!!). I love the company. Sometimes love is tough! :-)
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Post by macziggy on Oct 19, 2012 23:39:37 GMT -8
Since the beginning of fiscal 2010 the average period between ATHs has been 82 days. The period between the last 4 ATHs has expanded to 100 days. Where a string of ATHs are printed in quick succession, I treat them as a continuation of the same run and count the last ATH in the string as the official ATH. That's 3 years of history (no direct link to the future), however, given the history we should see a new ATH before the year end. My guess is before the end of October, with another ATH before the end of the year. I looked at a similar thing in the last week, but instead looking for the timeperiod between ATH's, I looked at the period where AAPL was not up. With the 3 year chart, the longest time when AAPL was not up was about 5 months, on 2 different occasions. And then a couple 4 month periods, and then some shorter ones. This basically matches your 100 day observation, but instead of looking at all time highs, (which would extend the timeframe since if AAPL got back to match it's ATH after 4 months but then climbed for another month, you'd call that 5 months), it is looking at the maximum timeframe in the past 3 years where if you bought stock, you might at most be underwater. Likewise, my use was with options, in that if I bought an ATM spread at least 6 months out anytime in the past 3 years, it would always be profitable. While the future doesn't always follow the past, it gave me a little more hope last week when making some purchases, as it would now too. Good to know. Thanks for the research!!
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 20, 2012 2:36:51 GMT -8
No offense to the person posting about Macs but Mac software is awful. The MBA is great and the MBP works for years but the software is terrible. I don't think it will ever match MSFT but I hope it gets close.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 20, 2012 3:56:20 GMT -8
No offense to the person posting about Macs but Mac software is awful. The MBA is great and the MBP works for years but the software is terrible. I don't think it will ever match MSFT but I hope it gets close. Is it comedy hour?
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Post by stevereel on Oct 20, 2012 4:58:04 GMT -8
No offense to the person posting about Macs but Mac software is awful. The MBA is great and the MBP works for years but the software is terrible. I don't think it will ever match MSFT but I hope it gets close. That's why folks are migrating from Mac to PC in droves.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 20, 2012 5:50:07 GMT -8
1) Expected. It's an iPhone 4-style launch. If you have an iPhone 5, you can appreciate how hard it must be to manufacture one of 'em. 2) Signal-noise ratio not determined. See also: iPhone 4 antennagate/breaking glass/yellowscreengate. 3) Doesn't seem to matter much, really, if those shipping times are any indication. See also: Antennagate. Obviously, BIG PR snafu that I expect to see corrected. 4) Hasn't really made those Mac news sites I check 5) Do what is right = subjective interpretation left to Tim Cook and Co. = not do what Steve would do. S'mostly FUD. My iPhone 5 is great! (My new iPad 3, literally? That's another story...and no one reported on my woes there!) AAPL will drop when it does. You just gotta do the best you can. And agreed, don't bet against AAPL long term. The selloff can't continue forever, IMHO. I was onboard during that disastrous drop from $200 in 2008 to $79. So, I'm cautious. Don't want to see that again. We all have to get a grip here. This is not 2008. We have had a 2% drop on the indices, which are still not far from their 4-year highs. And APPL has had these "3 down days followed by 2 up" pattern since we fell from 705. So hang in there. I don't think we see 580. We shall see.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 20, 2012 6:01:53 GMT -8
T reports Tuesday morning, that will be Custer's last stand. "Custer's last stand", really, MB? Please. We shall be fine. If we miss, we can't fall too far, but I don't think we will. Look at July, when we missed, and we were only $35 from our ATH, and we fell $40. We are currently $95 from it. So perhaps a miss has been priced in already. I am looking for a positive week next week. We shall see.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 20, 2012 6:33:21 GMT -8
T reports Tuesday morning, that will be Custer's last stand. "Custer's last stand", really, MB? Please. We shall be fine. If we miss, we can't fall too far, but I don't think we will. Look at July, when we missed, and we were only $35 from our ATH, and we fell $40. We are currently $95 from it. So perhaps a miss has been priced in already. I am looking for a positive week next week. We shall see. I do not even know what the expectations are for T. Like VZ, it may not matter. I would like to think we are close to a bottom, but I take nothing for granted. The market had been going along fine and was poised to make a run until Thursday ruined everything. My biggest fear has been a market correction while AAPL is in a downtrend. The last stand is more of a call that Tuesday should be the shake out day.Right now I think 58x is a given. I believe the 200 day will/should hold, but I thought the same thing about the 100 day also. RG, we are still at a 14.3 p/e, as the last year has shown, AAPL can go well below that. I did find it interesting that if AAPL reports $9.50 that would give a ttm of 45. Multiply that by 13 and you get 585. RG, I am mentally trying to prepare for the worst, hoping for the best.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 20, 2012 6:46:24 GMT -8
RG, we are still at a 14.3 p/e, as the last year has shown, AAPL can go well below that. Has it ever gone well below that the week before earnings, when even a miss will bump up E a bit?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 20, 2012 6:47:12 GMT -8
"Custer's last stand", really, MB? Please. We shall be fine. If we miss, we can't fall too far, but I don't think we will. Look at July, when we missed, and we were only $35 from our ATH, and we fell $40. We are currently $95 from it. So perhaps a miss has been priced in already. I am looking for a positive week next week. We shall see. I do not even know what the expectations are for T. Like VZ, it may not matter. I would like to think we are close to a bottom, but I take nothing for granted. The market had been going along fine and was poised to make a run until Thursday ruined everything. My biggest fear has been a market correction while AAPL is in a downtrend. The last stand is more of a call that Tuesday should be the shake out day.Right now I think 58x is a given. I believe the 200 day will/should hold, but I thought the same thing about the 100 day also. RG, we are still at a 14.3 p/e, as the last year has shown, AAPL can go well below that. I did find it interesting that if AAPL reports $9.50 that would give a ttm of 45. Multiply that by 13 and you get 585. RG, I am mentally trying to prepare for the worst, hoping for the best. Mark, read this. It helped me a lot. nanseninvestments.com/2012/10/11/apple-is-going-to-be-great-let-the-fear-go/
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 20, 2012 6:54:20 GMT -8
RG, we are still at a 14.3 p/e, as the last year has shown, AAPL can go well below that. Has it ever gone well below that the week before earnings, when even a miss will bump up E a bit? I did some calcs yesterday based on PE and expected earnings for the 4Q12 and 1Q13. So using an earnings of $10.00 for 4Q12 and $21.00 for 1Q13 - and though these might be on the high side, please accept them for this calculation because it doesn't make too much of a difference - I get the following prices: At PE = 13: $591 after Thursday's earnings, and $684 and January's earnings. At PE=14: $636 after Thursday, and $736 after January. At PE = 15: $682 after Thursday, and $789 after January. I am sure we will see a PE of 15 in the next six months - regardless of technicals - so hope is on the horizon.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 20, 2012 7:03:41 GMT -8
RG, I read that the day he wrote it. I thought it was one of his best writings. As I said before, they may have cut the tree down, but I am still hanging on. If you are not optimistic you can't be let down. Right now, I am not optimistic. This is all short term feelings as I do believe in Jan we will be much higher than we are now. I just do not feel good about this coming week or earnings. What Apple guides for next qtr holds the key. WS is expecting a lot, they are not going to get it. Apple had an extra week in last years Q1 which makes the YOY much tougher. WS only cares about the ttm, not in how the calendar fell. I think AAPL will guide to 12.50 and WS will not like it at all. It will take time to work out, but personally I think the $20 EPS expectations are crazy.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 20, 2012 7:31:48 GMT -8
Of course it is "possible". All kinds if things are possible. You need to stop asking these questions of us, because none of us are clairvoyants. Make your own decisions, and stop looking for guidance from people who are not qualified to give it. You should also seriously consider not investing in stocks at all, and keep your money where it is safe. If anyone claims to give you a serious answer to these types of questions, ignore them. NO ONE knows what is going to happen to this stock.
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Post by stevereel on Oct 20, 2012 7:37:04 GMT -8
Nate, do some due diligence on Apple's fundamentals and you'll have your answer, especially for common shares. If you still feel worried, sell your stock and put the money in CDs or treasuries.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 20, 2012 7:42:57 GMT -8
No offense to the person posting about Macs but Mac software is awful. The MBA is great and the MBP works for years but the software is terrible. I don't think it will ever match MSFT but I hope it gets close. Is it comedy hour? Have you ever tried to really use Excel on a Mac? Not using parallels, but using Office for Mac? I was told Office for Mac 2011 was "just like the Windows version". Well, that's complete BS. It's terrible. Then you factor in that its hard to figure out how to do anything. How do I even know what programs are running??? I've had an MBA and MBP for years and still have no clue.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 20, 2012 7:45:57 GMT -8
Is it possible for what happened to nflx or rimm stock happen to aapl? Or is this just a normal correction that hopefully should be over soon? I still don't think you're a real person. This question is your most ________ yet.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 20, 2012 7:47:45 GMT -8
Is it possible for what happened to nflx or rimm stock happen to aapl? Or is this just a normal correction that hopefully should be over soon? I still don't think you're a real person. This question is your most ________ yet. You are ALWAYS bashing apple. You even PM me to sell everything.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 20, 2012 7:51:42 GMT -8
How do I even know what programs are running??? I've had an MBA and MBP for years and still have no clue. Do you use Mission Control? I use it all the time to show everything that is running. SO much better than Windows. I also use Excel on the Mac and am happy with it. It has an extremely complex model of our entire company in it. I know from past posts that you are a power user of Excel, so maybe your needs are different. but for me I am happy with it.
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