|
Post by nathanstevens on Oct 24, 2012 5:50:34 GMT -8
I've been in DC the last several days and couldn't help but notice that Microsoft has flooded the Metro system with Surface advertising. Based on some initial reviews about how bad the keyboard is, I don't think this is a real iPad competitor or a MacBook Air competitor. Dictation will be the data entry method of choice as we move forward, not the keyboard.
|
|
|
Post by roni on Oct 24, 2012 5:52:22 GMT -8
iPhone 3GS/4/4S appear to be 7.25 iPhones sold (2.45 VZ, 3.4 AT&T, est. S 1.4 ). Take this number and divide it by 30% (top percentage of US sales vs total worldwide sales). I get 24.2 3Gs/4/4S iPhones sold. Add in a minimum of 5 million iPhone 5's and I get 29.2 million iPhones sold. Does this sound right? I hope so! I am at 28 million phones, but need help with my iPad #
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 24, 2012 5:53:02 GMT -8
Is that 3.4 # for AT&T an estimate or is there a data source? Can you post a link? On the conference call they stated they sold double their largest competitor. Verizon sold 650000 5's. This would mean T sold 1.3 million 5's. 4.7-1.3=3.4 Then I like your logic. Although there is certainly upside to your number, given the very conservative iPhone 5 assumption. I can't see how they would have only sold 5M.
|
|
|
Post by dreamRaj on Oct 24, 2012 5:55:38 GMT -8
I'm not 'feeling' this rise. At least, not yet. If AAPL holds itself high till about 1 or 2 pm then the rise will feel like it'll stay.
But then again, tomorrow's a whole different story.
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Oct 24, 2012 5:56:56 GMT -8
If they did say they doubled what would be VZ's iphone 5 #, that is great. As more data keeps coming in, it really looks like a >30m # unless international fell off for some reason. Ahh should be exciting.
|
|
|
Post by huskerrx on Oct 24, 2012 5:56:58 GMT -8
The only kicker would be my ratio of US vs global non-5 sales, but I'm excluding 5 sales from this ratio calculation. There is a possibility non-5 global sales fell off a cliff, but US sales don't indicate this.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 24, 2012 6:03:30 GMT -8
From $T conference call: iPhone5 lowest call drop ratio of ANY smartphone
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 6:06:00 GMT -8
Hah! There goes THAT meme! Nice catch!
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Oct 24, 2012 6:08:42 GMT -8
The only kicker would be my ratio of US vs global non-5 sales, but I'm excluding 5 sales from this ratio calculation. There is a possibility non-5 global sales fell off a cliff, but US sales don't indicate this. The scary thing (and by scary I mean exciting) is that the int'l market should be the one growing faster than the US market due to new carriers etc and the phone becoming more available to nations/areas that didn't previously have it. more and more I keep thinking the iphone # will crush estimates, but i'm too nervous to put any more $$ behind it till after tomorrow (currently have 4 different bull spreads from all different prices/expirations). I think a 5th can wait till at least Friday hah.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 24, 2012 6:10:11 GMT -8
This is really astounding: From $T conference call: Ralph: iPhone 5-10,000 adds per DAY
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 24, 2012 6:11:12 GMT -8
One of the best ways to do that is by watching Put/Call Open Interest ratio. Here's what I'm seeing: ............Total ..............Put ............... Call ................P/C ............Open Interest ..Open Interest ..Open Interest ...Ratio 21-Sep ...3,566,957 .......1,765,464.......1,801,493 ........0.98:1.00 24-Oct ....3,362,744 .......1,396,227 .......1,966,517........0.71:1.00 Good info. Where did you get that summary? (I'm assuming you don't total up OI of all strikes yourself...)
|
|
|
Post by bernard on Oct 24, 2012 6:11:17 GMT -8
The only kicker would be my ratio of US vs global non-5 sales, but I'm excluding 5 sales from this ratio calculation. There is a possibility non-5 global sales fell off a cliff, but US sales don't indicate this. This came in on Monday from one of APPLs China carriers: In detail, the number of China Unicom's 3G users increased by about 3.18 million (including 87,700 users of 3G wireless Internet access cards) to about 66.86 million in September. The number of 2G users increased by 242,000 to over 162.62 million. So it does not look like there was a falloff in China at least. Europe is something else...
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 24, 2012 6:12:43 GMT -8
It's an awful thing to say but I really think the market is numb to Greece at this point. Spain or Italy is another issue but I think we are just so tired of hearing the Greece nonsense that it doesn't seem to be reflected as much - if at all - in the trading day. I know I tuned out. Yes, it's important to us if Greece takes down the whole EU. But this threat has been there so long that I just got exhausted by it and have no energy left for it.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 24, 2012 6:13:44 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 6:15:38 GMT -8
OVER 1000 active users in the last 24 hours. I believe it is the first time! where do you see this? sorry but i am technologically challenged
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Oct 24, 2012 6:15:53 GMT -8
This is really astounding: From $T conference call: Ralph: iPhone 5-10,000 adds per DAYnew customers? then yea that is great. otherwise that is at most 900k iphone5's over a 90day period. Doesn't seem that great.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 24, 2012 6:18:08 GMT -8
OVER 1000 active users in the last 24 hours. I believe it is the first time! where do you see this? sorry but i am technologically challenged On my macBook, AFB home page. bottom of page
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 24, 2012 6:18:44 GMT -8
Based on some initial reviews about how bad the keyboard is... I told you so--not you specifically, but I've been saying the same thing every once in a while since the first presentation: the fact that they would not let the press touch the keyboard meant that it was not yet working. And note that it wasn't just the first big event, even at later , very recent, events MS still would not allow anyone to use the keyboard. I think I even said that before bloggers pointed out that the first demo of the keyboard was faked. (Which got way less attention that I thought it would...) Anyway, the only question was whether they would delay the product in order to get it working, or ship it not working. Now we have the answer: they're so desperate to get into this market that they've thrown it against the wall to see if it will stick, knowing that the premiere feature they've been pushing does not work! OUCH!
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Oct 24, 2012 6:19:26 GMT -8
I believe we have lift off... can we break the gravity field? The launch is starting to look a bit like this.
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Oct 24, 2012 6:21:51 GMT -8
I tell myself this is the pro's pushing this down into the dirt so they can grab whatever they want before tomorrow's numbers and/or guidance...
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 24, 2012 6:21:57 GMT -8
Hey, did anybody note the Zynga news? Substantial layoffs. Timed to occur completely during the Apple event--as in they thought that would minimize attention to their bad news. Nice.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 24, 2012 6:27:52 GMT -8
AAPL at 623-626. Nice support from ATT, but there are the 2 items of yesterday that overshadow my portfolio. iMac delay shipping and iPad sales. Until guidance says $ 13+, I'm not going full long by any means. The Street's 1Q13 consensus is $15.44 (per Yahoo), to put in a data point. Would expect at least $13 from AAPL.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Oct 24, 2012 6:32:52 GMT -8
I tell myself this is the pro's pushing this down into the dirt so they can grab whatever they want before tomorrow's numbers and/or guidance... Or as could be the case, some folk already know the details. There's been more than one case recently of people getting advance warning of various companies not quite meeting expectations. Another bit of idle speculation, but quite a lot was announced yesterday. Did anything in particular look as if it might have been brought forward in the release schedule in response to slowing sales?
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 24, 2012 6:38:25 GMT -8
I tell myself this is the pro's pushing this down into the dirt so they can grab whatever they want before tomorrow's numbers and/or guidance... Or as could be the case, some folk already know the details. There's been more than one case recently of people getting advance warning of various companies not quite meeting expectations. Another bit of idle speculation, but quite a lot was announced yesterday. Did anything in particular look as if it might have been brought forward in the release schedule in response to slowing sales? There are some who believe that the timing of the entire event was designed to shore up pending disappointment in Q4 results. Designed to give confidence that a refreshed product line would drive a great Q1 after a disappointing Q4. After all, when was the last time we saw such a major launch blitz two days before earnings? I don't know what to make of this thinking.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 24, 2012 6:40:40 GMT -8
Or as could be the case, some folk already know the details. There's been more than one case recently of people getting advance warning of various companies not quite meeting expectations. Another bit of idle speculation, but quite a lot was announced yesterday. Did anything in particular look as if it might have been brought forward in the release schedule in response to slowing sales? There are some who believe that the timing of the entire event was designed to shore up pending disappointment in Q4 results. Designed to give confidence that a refreshed product line would drive a great Q1 after a disappointing Q4. After all, when was the last time we saw such a major launch blitz two days before earnings? I don't know what to make of this thinking. Or the iPad mini was simply ready for announcement. Not everything has to be a conspiracy. And if they wanted to overshadow a poor Q4, TC wouldn't have provided us with the 100M iPad number.
|
|
|
Post by greedynoob on Oct 24, 2012 6:42:28 GMT -8
Or as could be the case, some folk already know the details. There's been more than one case recently of people getting advance warning of various companies not quite meeting expectations. Another bit of idle speculation, but quite a lot was announced yesterday. Did anything in particular look as if it might have been brought forward in the release schedule in response to slowing sales? There are some who believe that the timing of the entire event was designed to shore up pending disappointment in Q4 results. Designed to give confidence that a refreshed product line would drive a great Q1 after a disappointing Q4. After all, when was the last time we saw such a major launch blitz two days before earnings? I don't know what to make of this thinking. Yeah, that's a difficult one. A week ago I would have blown it off with the observation that "Apple announces products when products are ready". But now, we have a mix of ready and pre-announced. But we also have a very close idea of iPad sales, and strong iPhone numbers from Verizon and AT&T. So, what is the chance that international sales fell off a cliff???
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Oct 24, 2012 6:47:13 GMT -8
It is likely that hardly any Greeks or maybe even Spaniards bought iPhones. We are doomed.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Oct 24, 2012 7:05:45 GMT -8
Not everything has to be a conspiracy. The word conspiracy is one of those that is wildly overused in this day and age to the point where it is fast losing its original meaning. To suggest the notion that Apple may be responding to a slowdown in sales of certain products by bringing forward the model refreshes is "conspiracy thinking" is ridiculous. What exactly is the conspiracy? That they are responding to changes in demand by replacing some models with refreshes a bit sooner? On a side note, if Apple refresh some products too quickly, they will end up killing demand instead of stoking it up. The Oatmeal did a great cartoon on this very thing. theoatmeal.com/comics/apple
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 24, 2012 7:18:52 GMT -8
I sense half of Wall Street day traders are waiting for AAPL. A quick check of the usual swirl hints at calm before the storm. I'm not trading for the next 46 hours.
|
|
jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 172
|
Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 7:33:08 GMT -8
Me, I want both. I am very interested in the number from AT&T, now that I see it I feel much better. Very good number IMO. I know I am reaching, but wouldn't be nice if S came in at 2.2 million to give us a nice 10 million just in the US. Just wishing there as I only look for 1.5-1.7 Hey Greece is back in the news, great! Not I think Sprint could surprise to the upside. They were aggressive in their price slashing of the 4S back in August. $149 then $149 + $100 Amex gift card. Yes, and did they not pay handsomely up front for a guaranteed number of iPhones? Could (wishful thinking) some of the iPhone shortages at other carriers and Apple be due to Sprint's guaranteed allotment? Does anyone have insight into this?
|
|