Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 12:10:46 GMT -8
Thanks for the post Gregg, always interesting. What's the lowest that ratio ever gets before a bull run? The lowest I recall seeing it in the last two years was about 0.64:1.00. That was in December 2011. In January Apple reported the most extreme earnings beat ever. Thanks for the info Gregg - one more buy signal to throw into the ring.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 24, 2012 12:55:14 GMT -8
With the introduction of the iPad mini and updated iPad yesterday, one wonders whether Apple have now moved the upgrade cycle to the Autumn for this product line, rather than Spring. It is obviously better timed for the holiday season in the West but also for the Chinese New Year. However it does leave a large void in the Spring and Summer for a product announcement. A gap to be filled by an Apple TV perhaps? Actually, I think the lesson here is that Apple's refresh/new product cycle will no longer fit an established, predictable pattern, and will occur more often, which is good. I'm hoping iPhone doesn't go 2 years between major refreshes from now on.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 24, 2012 12:59:35 GMT -8
i've told my friends this EXACT thing. it gets me upset to see, for a variety of reasons which I won't get into, but then it tells me how huge the market is for an iphone. And THAT is the ONLY point I was trying to make -- that although there isn't a great deal - if any- discretionary money and various socio-economic levels - there is a way of "reallocating" and getting certain products. I truly feel the iPhone is one of them. IMHO The same is true of China. FUDsters like to make the point of how little the average Chinese worker makes. But I saw a piece on TV about Best Buy in China (how they were basically flailing). Anyway, the show said that a lot of Chinese young adults live with their parents to save money to buy things like iPhones. All those idiots that CNBC waltzes out on AAPL you would think that they would have found Zaky and put him on already! Damn! Just as "if it bleed, it leads," "If it bears, it airs." Or the iPad mini was simply ready for announcement. Not everything has to be a conspiracy. And if they wanted to overshadow a poor Q4, TC wouldn't have provided us with the 100M iPad number. Apple has demonstrated on several occasions that they do not manage the Company to enhance the stock. No conspiracy here. True dat. Apple does not spontaneously create and release new products to prop up the stock price in a given quarter. The Apple product pipeline is over a year. Nonetheless, I do believe TC shipped iPhone 5 into Q3 to help mitigate what happened in Q3 '11.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Oct 24, 2012 13:15:28 GMT -8
Interesting comment I read today from yahoo comments I believe "" a long-term revenue stream is better than a single sale"- aaarrrgggh Is that so. Hmm. iPad's average sales price is about $650 and it nets Apple about $300 in profit per unit. Amazon sells tablets at cost and hopes to make money selling content at 4% or less. To catch the iPad, the Kindle Fire would need to sell $7,500 dollars of content. ($7,500 x 4% = $300) Google sells tablets at cost and hopes to make money selling content and ads. It's been estimated that Google is making about $6 in revenue per year from ad sales. Assuming a life span of 5 years (which is ridiculously long), Google would make a total of $30 from ads. They'd have to make up the other $270 from content sales. See Amazon, above. So a long term revenue stream is better than a single sale, eh? Depends on the size of the revenue stream and the margins from the sale, my friend. By the way, if you'd like to challenge my numbers, I'd love to hear the official numbers on sales, margins, revenues and profits provided by Amazon and Google. What's that, you say? They're not releasing numbers? That should be telling you something, Yes it should. " but rough article...never realized market share in India was so bad www.idownloadblog.com/2012/10/18/apple-sales-india/
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 13:16:30 GMT -8
"At my house", heh, see, it's the house that's one major problem. It suits us well, but it is, shall we say, somewhat unique. Selling it would take a long time--my plan is to die here first ;-) Then there's business goodwill--it's real, there's profit coming in every month, but selling would be... interesting... OMG, you are one of those people on TV that has converted a Firehouse into a real house that's worth 2 million, I have seen you on TV. ;D
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 13:19:43 GMT -8
And THAT is the ONLY point I was trying to make -- that although there isn't a great deal - if any- discretionary money and various socio-economic levels - there is a way of "reallocating" and getting certain products. I truly feel the iPhone is one of them. IMHO The same is true of China. FUDsters like to make the point of how little the average Chinese worker makes. But I saw a piece on TV about Best Buy in China (how they were basically flailing). Anyway, the show said that a lot of Chinese young adults live with their parents to save money to buy things like iPhones. When looking at AVERAGE Chinese wages, you have to consider the wage earning power of east (coastal) China against the agrarian western provinces. The majority of workers being hired by Foxconn today do not come from the coastal provinces. They come from the western provinces where wages are much lower. The point is that the AVERAGE WAGE IN CHINA, as expressed by the media, is not reflective of the average wages earned in the coastal provinces. Wages within 500 miles of the coast, are rapidly approaching US middle class levels. That zone represents a population of about double that of the US. Add to that, that outside the US consumers are willing to forego what we feel are necessities, in order to get a "luxury". I know that in Germany, debt is abhorred. That buyers save until they can pay cash for their new car. You can't judge buying power outside the US, using US standards of conduct.
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Post by Iceage on Oct 24, 2012 13:21:53 GMT -8
so, apple introduces new imacs and they won't ship until november/december? the only thing i can read into this is that this will give them an opening to guide lower... Why?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 13:28:26 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 13:28:59 GMT -8
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Post by podboy on Oct 24, 2012 13:30:03 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 24, 2012 13:32:24 GMT -8
so, apple introduces new imacs and they won't ship until november/december? the only thing i can read into this is that this will give them an opening to guide lower... Why? My pre-earnings Q4 WAG for Macs is now at 5.0 M even. Normally, I would have expected a new round of iMacs to be ready. Basically, iMac sales are going to come to a halt except for the usual bargain hunters of previous generation. My guess is that these Macs are a bit touchy to make so its going to take a while to get production to cruising altitude. Q1 Wag estimate for Macs will remain flat at 5.0 M
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 13:35:54 GMT -8
cdn, I can tell you first hand, there is nothing like watching a Saturn V lift off. Apollo 15 went off on my B-Day and I had front row seats. I can remember taking pictures off the walls when they would launch to keep them from falling. Yes, we lived close (on Merritt Island) but still several miles away. Dad, worked for NASA for a few years.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 24, 2012 13:44:29 GMT -8
We return to the scene of the crime... AAPL DAILY CHART:
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 24, 2012 13:49:00 GMT -8
"At my house", heh, see, it's the house that's one major problem. It suits us well, but it is, shall we say, somewhat unique. Selling it would take a long time--my plan is to die here first ;-) Then there's business goodwill--it's real, there's profit coming in every month, but selling would be... interesting... OMG, you are one of those people on TV that has converted a Firehouse into a real house that's worth 2 million, I have seen you on TV. ;D I'd buy a converted firehouse or barn. Heck, I'd buy a lighthouse too. It's one of those missile silos that I'd have hesitation over. Too many stairs and lack of windows on the underground part, and then the worry that you're sniffing rocket fuel or other undesireables while you're sleeping
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 24, 2012 13:54:25 GMT -8
Interesting comment I read today from yahoo comments I believe "" a long-term revenue stream is better than a single sale"- aaarrrgggh Is that so. Hmm. iPad's average sales price is about $650 and it nets Apple about $300 in profit per unit. Amazon sells tablets at cost and hopes to make money selling content at 4% or less. To catch the iPad, the Kindle Fire would need to sell $7,500 dollars of content. ($7,500 x 4% = $300) Google sells tablets at cost and hopes to make money selling content and ads. It's been estimated that Google is making about $6 in revenue per year from ad sales. Assuming a life span of 5 years (which is ridiculously long), Google would make a total of $30 from ads. They'd have to make up the other $270 from content sales. See Amazon, above. So a long term revenue stream is better than a single sale, eh? Depends on the size of the revenue stream and the margins from the sale, my friend. By the way, if you'd like to challenge my numbers, I'd love to hear the official numbers on sales, margins, revenues and profits provided by Amazon and Google. What's that, you say? They're not releasing numbers? That should be telling you something, Yes it should. " Yeah, that's Falkirk doing the smackdown on techtards.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 14:01:49 GMT -8
It's one of those missile silos that I'd have hesitation over. Too many stairs and lack of windows on the underground part, and then the worry that you're sniffing rocket fuel or other undesireables while you're sleeping Ah, you have seen the show, on HGTV I believe. Yes, I do remember someone living in a missile silo. The Firehouse and Train Depot were my favorites. I could do the silo though. (equipped with missile of course)
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 24, 2012 14:04:32 GMT -8
cdn, I can tell you first hand, there is nothing like watching a Saturn V lift off. Apollo 15 went off on my B-Day and I had front row seats. I can remember taking pictures off the walls when they would launch to keep them from falling. Yes, we lived close (on Merritt Island) but still several miles away. Dad, worked for NASA for a few years. That must have been some memory. I know I wouldn't forget something like that. I would have loved to see (and feel) that.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 24, 2012 14:11:11 GMT -8
I know I wouldn't forget something like that. I would have loved to see (and feel) that. Yeah, I saw one when I was really young, as in had not yet started school, and I still remember what it looked like.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 24, 2012 14:29:21 GMT -8
We return to the scene of the crime... AAPL DAILY CHART: That's incredible. There is no manipulation though. Doesn't exist. Never.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 24, 2012 14:29:38 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 15:02:29 GMT -8
Hey haven't seen Mav on today but if anyone sees him let him know that it looks like AAPL may let you exchange your iPad 3 for iPad 4 if you bought it within the last 30 days...story:http://www.cnbc.com/id/49540901
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 15:09:24 GMT -8
But they only received a certain amount - so will they tell us that it was all they had so we can extrapolate from that? Or will they just throw out a number and we are left to wonder if that was their full allocation? Thoughts? All we need to know is that total first weekend sales we more than 25% higher than the 4S. For sure another million were in transit. I don't know how long it took Apple to stockpile that many, but Apple is producing at max rate right now, and will be until demand balance is reached (mid to late March quarter). Gregg, your published EPS estimate is higher than most... Given new info that has come out, would you lower it now? I, too, greatly appreciate your contributions to AFB!
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 15:16:35 GMT -8
Apple has demonstrated on several occasions that they do not manage the Company to enhance the stock. You got that right, but I think times are a changing. Maybe the times have changed, Mark, but not Apple... not in this case, as well as not in general... I think that even if it was that big a deal to the people there who would make this decision, they've got too much else to do. Saying that, I will have to admit I was wrong in expecting that the iPad Mini would bring something new to the table, do a new job or existing job better. But maybe I just haven't seen it yet..
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Post by BillH on Oct 24, 2012 15:23:26 GMT -8
Very sad as a Minnesotan and former BBY shareholder As a fellow Minnesotan I'm happy to see them go! Honestly, (which they never have been) it's the only company I can think of that I'm embarrassed to call local. I would have loved to watch the store video cams the first time an unsuspecting customer discovered the $60.00 HDMI cable was available for $10.00 online. They got caught running parallel websites (internal and external) to convince customers that they were wrong about a price they "thought" they saw at home. They should have all been sent to jail. Crooks!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 24, 2012 15:38:27 GMT -8
Futures have a shade of green. This is what I call a vote of meh confidence.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 24, 2012 15:45:46 GMT -8
Tomorrow is the day. I am rather nervous right now and I am going to have trouble sleeping tonight. I am going to stay in for earnings and not selling 1 share. I could be regretting my decision come 130pm tomorrow.
So much bearish sentiment right now. Maybe that works in our favor as it may be easier to beat?
If earnings are bad I suppose I will just continue to hold and maybe it takes a little longer to reach 700 again.
Does anyone know why apple is currently down over .3 percent in afterhours?
We have been in a downtrend for a little over a month now.
Are most people here bullish long term still? I am but I am having my doubts each day that apple struggles to go up.
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Post by spindo on Oct 24, 2012 15:46:18 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Oct 24, 2012 15:53:30 GMT -8
I read this stuff and I gotta wonder:
Global Equities' Trip Chowdhry: Quick Take. "Key take aways: Innovation at Apple is over... Just incremental improvements, nothing ground breaking. The best is over for Apple. iPad mini is playing catch up to Google Android, probably will have a mediocre customer adoption."
Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey: iPad Mini: Fresh, but Not Wild. "We think the new products are exciting on a standalone basis, but all could also be described as incremental improvements. We see limited impact on earnings estimates, as both the nature and price of the product announcements broadly met expectations..."
Of course the new products are incremental! Gosh, the iPad mini does NOT have magnetic levitation so it's NOT hands-free - boo hoo. The new iPad can't project holographic images like R2D2 - it's only incremental! I wonder, do these people really expect Apple's products to radically change with every new model? Aren't desktop computers, TVs, cars, planes, etc. all slowly improving? Why isn't Apple allowed to iterate, hone, refine, improve its products like everybody else without Chowdhry-heads making dumb comments about Apple not reinventing the wheel every six months? Anyone? Pardon the rant - just tired of inane commentary, I guess.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 24, 2012 15:54:25 GMT -8
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Post by calvinav on Oct 24, 2012 16:17:20 GMT -8
Excellent article, thanks for sharing. Makes a lot of sense. Though his calculations are rough & estimates of 32nm tech vs 45nm tech are uncertain, $700 million in savings is substantial enough to warrant an early change.
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