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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 9, 2013 2:53:19 GMT -8
Good morning all...green in PM but is it ever about PM? It's always about the close which is hours away. Nonetheless, hope springs eternal.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 9, 2013 3:03:07 GMT -8
By the way - all that talk these last few days on the thread of wanting to short AMZN...I've gotten burned so many times and this is why - WS has an irrational love affair with this stock and continues to give Bezos a free pass. I don't know if any of you shorted but this is what you wake up to today: GS restarts AMZN coverage with Buy rating and a twelve month price target of $315 -- AND -- ML raises $AMZN target to $300
How do they value this? With a hope and a dream but NOT profitability. Unreal.
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Post by flyonthewall on Jan 9, 2013 3:24:37 GMT -8
Good morning! AAPL is 428 US on the Frankfurt Borse Best to all AFB'ers and to a profitable day.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 9, 2013 3:26:05 GMT -8
I could use a good laugh these days...this made me laugh and realize how much FUD there is in the world and how some of these people are in positions where others listen to their advice and get slaughtered. It reminds me to always do my own homework and to surround myself with others I find truly insightful like most on this board. Take a look at this nonsense from a blog - THESE are the types that CNBC prances in front of the camera: » How’s that going?
BGR in May of 2011 stated:
Late last week, BGR wrote about a recent report suggesting Microsoft’s share of the global smartphone market would overtake Google’s share in 2015, and Windows Phone would become the best-selling smartphone platform in the world at that point. On Tuesday, the Pyramid Research analyst responsible for the report published a follow up explaining that her findings were misinterpreted. Pyramid’s Senior Analyst Stela Bokun explains that Windows Phone is poised to overtake Android’s massive market share much earlier than that — as soon as 2013, in fact.
Windows Phone is apparently going to have a huge year.
“Sorry, Stela, we need to get our name out there and it’s your turn to say something completely insane.”
One last note - and to demonstrate how corrupt CNBC is and how it's all about the ratings especially if the big ratings come when they are negative on AAPL: /photo/1
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 9, 2013 3:34:19 GMT -8
A positive note from the QCOM CES:
A million smartphones are activated per day.
More smartphones are being SOLD in China TODAY than any other country.
Over 500 million Android devices in use today. (that is not the big number from GOOGLE we are used to hearing. GOOGLE usually tells us activations.)
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Post by rob_london on Jan 9, 2013 3:42:49 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jan 9, 2013 3:48:45 GMT -8
As most people on this board probably know, the first iPhone was launched six years ago today. The share price that day closed at $92.57, with nearly 120 million shares traded.
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 9, 2013 4:49:45 GMT -8
As most people on this board probably know, the first iPhone was launched six years ago today. The share price that day closed at $92.57, with nearly 120 million shares traded. Yes, announced almost 6 months prior to release. I think that helped to cool the rumor mill leading up to the release. How far ahead of the TV release will the announcement be?
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 5:03:45 GMT -8
By the way - all that talk these last few days on the thread of wanting to short AMZN...I've gotten burned so many times and this is why - WS has an irrational love affair with this stock and continues to give Bezos a free pass. I don't know if any of you shorted but this is what you wake up to today: GS restarts AMZN coverage with Buy rating and a twelve month price target of $315 -- AND -- ML raises $AMZN target to $300 How do they value this? With a hope and a dream but NOT profitability. Unreal. The other day Bezos stated he is more than willing do sacrifice margins for revenue (and I believe they price rallied on that day). Basically AMZN is not valued on a EPS basis. Wall Street does not expect profits and Bezos has done a masterful job training people to expect a low EPS because supposedly its all about he long game. This may seem odd but PE does not matter in the case of AMZN. Crazy isn't it? IMHO AMZN is rewarded because of their dominance with online shopping: their is no equal. Until that perception is threatened or Bezos is out of the next idea on their conference calls the type of valuation they have will continue. However their are times when the euphoria peaks and they are primed for a pullback. if you look at the EPS estimates for the next year, given they have embarked on a path to sell hardware at less than cost it is easy to see they aren't going to make those estimates. The questions are: will those estimates be significantly lowered and will they still be rewarded even if they miss BUT the EPS is at least positive? IF I were to short them I would not do it for the upcoming earnings release. The est EPS for this earnings is quite high but the next one is probably not achievable at all. If this earrings is mediocre and if by the next earrings most of the TA points to overbought, I may put a small (small like if I loose it it does not matter) short position in. If you don't to take any risk just watch the stock and see what happens if you had. The P/C ratio is quite telling for which way the future may be going.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 5:20:11 GMT -8
I could use a good laugh these days...this made me laugh and realize how much FUD there is in the world and how some of these days... One last note - and to demonstrate how corrupt CNBC is and how it's all about the ratings especially if the big ratings come when they are negative on AAPL: /photo/1 I was in my car yesterday listening to CNBC and could not believe the amount of misinformation put out in 1 minute. I don't think Melissa Lee cares about facts at all, she just regurgitates portions of crap she has read without any care of order of the number or context. One thing I am really getting annoyed by across the board of many analysts, commentators is they are creating a notion that apples stock cannot rise until the next got to have product is released. This concerns me two fold: first the numbers don't matter and second it creates an undefined and therefore probable unachievable bar.
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Post by podboy on Jan 9, 2013 5:54:08 GMT -8
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Post by chasmac on Jan 9, 2013 6:00:10 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 9, 2013 6:03:41 GMT -8
Scott Redler, this morning... "Meet the demand... have the iPad mini in the store... split the stock... the management team needs to start executing better..."
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Post by podboy on Jan 9, 2013 6:06:32 GMT -8
" Verizon says that smartphone sales growth was stimulated by “higher mix of Apple smartphones.” so possibly higher %
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Post by rob_london on Jan 9, 2013 6:09:41 GMT -8
" Verizon says that smartphone sales growth was stimulated by “higher mix of Apple smartphones.” so possibly higher % The last estimate I saw for 4Q12 Verizon iPhone sales was for 4.6 million units (from a total of 8.97 million smartphones. i.e. 51.7% share).
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Post by Lstream on Jan 9, 2013 6:11:33 GMT -8
Scott Redler, this morning... "Meet the demand... have the iPad mini in the store... split the stock... the management team needs to start executing better..." All this from a guy who stares at charts all day and likely has zero clue or foundation to be advising Apple management on a single thing. Funny how almost everyone fancies themselves as some kind of expert. No matter how unqualified they are.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 6:22:36 GMT -8
Some good news: after reading all the reports on CES but admittedly I am not there, the competition failed to show up with anything of a threat. Lots of little things and some novel features. Panasonic has one big thing in the form of a huge tablet weighing in at over 5lbs that sort of flies in the face of portability along with a 2 hour (marketing number) battery life. This is good news in that purely from a hardware perspective there is no threat for at least 9 months. IMHO the only perceived threats are in no particular order: Facebook phone. They are having a big news/media event next Tuesday I believe. However they have had a stab at something like this before and the success was, well not so much. Unbreakable screen in the next Samsung phone. This is the most intriguing and could be big. A phone where the display and interface is unbreakable is a compelling feature. Well see what unbreakable actually means and if it sacrifices anything else in the platform to make it so. Also I can't see why Apple could not have this in an iPhone.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 9, 2013 6:23:09 GMT -8
I thought 5.5m would be pretty good VZ #. That's a 28% YoY increase.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 6:26:22 GMT -8
Scott Redler, this morning... "Meet the demand... have the iPad mini in the store... split the stock... the management team needs to start executing better..." All this from a guy who stares at charts all day and likely has zero clue or foundation to be advising Apple management on a single thing. Funny how almost everyone fancies themselves as some kind of expert. No matter how unqualified they are. I'll take a WAG that his timeframe focus could be a little different from that of Apple Mgt.
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Post by mcharliem on Jan 9, 2013 6:26:26 GMT -8
" Verizon says that smartphone sales growth was stimulated by “higher mix of Apple smartphones.” so possibly higher % I think 9.8M is a great number. It's a much bigger jump YoY than AT&T had and I think it's because of the LTE iPhone effect. I predict Verizon iPhones easily surpass 6M for the quarter.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 9, 2013 6:35:15 GMT -8
That is in fact a good number by Verizon.
If the iPhone mix is higher than last year (55%) it would not be too bold to assume that Verizon sold something like 5.5 or even 6 mil. iPhones in the Dec quarter.
Using the low estimate of 5.5 million and adding the assumed 8 mil. iPhones AT&T might have sold I get to the following potential total sales:
AT&T and Verizon represent 31.9% of all sales (max. in the last few quarters): 42.4 million iPhones
AT&T and Verizon represent 21.4% of all sales (min. in the last few quarters): 63.2 million iPhones
Alternative scenarios (AT&T and Verizon share = total sales): 23% = 58.7 mil. 24% = 56.3 mil. 25% = 54.0 mil. 26% = 51.9 mil. 27% = 50.0 mil. 28% = 48.2 mil. 29% = 46.6 mil. 30% = 45.0 mil.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 9, 2013 6:39:16 GMT -8
Good data Al. Thanks.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 9, 2013 6:40:06 GMT -8
If I use the 6 mil. number for Verizon (plus 8 mil. from AT&T) I get to the following numbers:
AT&T and Verizon represent 31.9% of all sales (max. in the last few quarters): 43.9 million iPhones
AT&T and Verizon represent 21.4% of all sales (min. in the last few quarters): 65.5 million iPhones
Alternative scenarios (AT&T and Verizon share = total sales): 23% = 60.9 mil. 24% = 58.3 mil. 25% = 56.0 mil. 26% = 53.8 mil. 27% = 51.9 mil. 28% = 50.0 mil. 29% = 48.3 mil. 30% = 46.7 mil.
This doesn't look too bad.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 9, 2013 6:41:59 GMT -8
some more typical against-the-market trading...
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Post by Rupert on Jan 9, 2013 6:45:29 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Wednesday 01/09/2013
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Post by fas550 on Jan 9, 2013 6:47:11 GMT -8
Interesting yesterday I thought we did rather well vs the market but I guess the drop was being saved for today. Two weeks before earnings.
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Post by lance on Jan 9, 2013 6:51:54 GMT -8
These are the annoying days when you can't find a single justification for a dip other than cconstant downtrend. Is it just me or is the competition argument about Apple make no sense. Apple sells every single product it makes and that is irrespective of Samsung or whoever else. Of course there is competition but the competition to me isn't hindering Apple's sales. If Apple wanted to sell 100million phones this quarter it could sell 100 million phones this quarter similar to Samsung.
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Post by Plato on Jan 9, 2013 7:11:07 GMT -8
Scott Redler, this morning... "Meet the demand... have the iPad mini in the store... split the stock... the management team needs to start executing better..." All this from a guy who stares at charts all day and likely has zero clue or foundation to be advising Apple management on a single thing. Funny how almost everyone fancies themselves as some kind of expert. No matter how unqualified they are. He is a day trader and HAS to stare at charts all day .. Duh!! Do you know Scott? Do you follow him on Twitter and read his thoughts about AAPL and how he trades it??? I assume not! However, you insult a person you have no idea about! He knows very well about Apple's fundamentals, its business model and long term opportunities. However, he makes money by swing/day trading these stocks and shares his insights and thoughts, which by the way, are very good and helpful for a lot of day traders. He called short term bottoms and tops very precisely and made money off of it. Reading your comment made me believe you're just an unhappy and moping share holder that lashes out on everyone that has anything critical to say about Apple.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 9, 2013 7:12:18 GMT -8
If I use the 6 mil. number for Verizon (plus 8 mil. from AT&T) I get to the following numbers: AT&T and Verizon represent 31.9% of all sales (max. in the last few quarters): 43.9 million iPhones AT&T and Verizon represent 21.4% of all sales (min. in the last few quarters): 65.5 million iPhones Alternative scenarios (AT&T and Verizon share = total sales): 23% = 60.9 mil. 24% = 58.3 mil. 25% = 56.0 mil. 26% = 53.8 mil. 27% = 51.9 mil. 28% = 50.0 mil. 29% = 48.3 mil. 30% = 46.7 mil. This doesn't look too bad. Yes, but looking at: img841.imageshack.us/img841/3707/aapliphonesales.pngto get to 50mil, International would have to jump to 68% (assuming 2mil from Sprint). Historically, Q1 has been lowest % for International.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 9, 2013 7:12:57 GMT -8
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