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Post by fas550 on Jan 10, 2013 11:53:33 GMT -8
From Travis : 39% of all Apple's call open interest is on the Jan 19th (LEAP) expiry. 1M OI Jan 19 calls vs 2.5M all chains combined. This POS won't do anything until after earnings. 39% is that really accurate? If you don't mind me asking what was your source or how did you get that as that is very useful info in the future?
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Post by Plato on Jan 10, 2013 11:54:27 GMT -8
It was asking only because each post was pretty gloomy with terms like no hope, little hope, Couldn't even etc... It was about the tone of the notes and definitely not a direct reflection on you because obviously I don't know you. Sorry if you took offense. Thanks for the explanation - no offense taken. If you look at a daily chart - it looks pretty 'gloomy' - you have to admit. And the whole downward move this AM after pretty good news (hopes) about the China deal didn't look too good either. That's what I wanted to point out. However, the good news is that 505 is very good support and if we should hit that again, I'll buy in. Btw - someone that works in a hospice has to be very upbeat and optimistic, otherwise they wouldn't last too long in that job.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 10, 2013 11:54:45 GMT -8
Sometimes you just have to rant. i have been holding it together, but I think i have reached a limit. Forgive me or ignore me, but I want to get this out. First, given the 200 point drop when everything, EVERYTHING, points to a whole new level of profitability, makes me think there is a complete disconnect between fundamentals and stock price. We all know this and the cognitive dissonance is maddening, but given this, we STILL hold on to the hope of rational behavior. The historical fact is that this could be a blow out quarter for Apple and the stock can drop another 200 points. There is nothing sacred about a P/E of 11. If the stock can be manipulated from a P/E or 16 to a P/E of 11 with the kind of growth we have seen, it can be manipulated to a P/E of 6. The market is broken and there is no one who is going to fix it. Secondly, I am sick to death of watching Samsung and Amazon be rewarded. I have a modest proposal for Apple. Create a company to attack the low cost market. Build cheap phones and subsidize them to half the cost of anything by Samsung. Completely rip off everything Samsung does. Call the flagship product the Garaxy SIII. Let them sue, we can stall in the courts for years. If someone wants a real phone, we will give them a full tradein credit on a iPhone5. But give them the good software and get them hooked into the ecosystem. Since we are losing money on every phone, the Amazon logic should apply and improve the stock price. The only problem is we don't want to cheapen the brand, so we really should form a new company to do this with a different name....maybe something like Crapple. OK, there. I feel better. Preach my brother ... preach.
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Post by podboy on Jan 10, 2013 11:58:06 GMT -8
From Travis : 39% of all Apple's call open interest is on the Jan 19th (LEAP) expiry. 1M OI Jan 19 calls vs 2.5M all chains combined. This POS won't do anything until after earnings. 39% is that really accurate? If you don't mind me asking what was your source or how did you get that as that is very useful info in the future? As stated above from Travis Lewis, see third tweet down twitter.com/Aapl_pain
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 10, 2013 11:58:12 GMT -8
Technicals? There must've been a big volatility squeeze on certain shorter timeframes. Doesn't mean a move WILL happen, but a mini-move did. For now. seems like bounce across tech especially.
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Post by prazan on Jan 10, 2013 12:03:49 GMT -8
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Post by podboy on Jan 10, 2013 12:03:57 GMT -8
We dropped 9 on the cheap iphone news. After Schiller's comment can we go up 9?
Makes too much sense, sorry.
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Post by alice on Jan 10, 2013 12:05:53 GMT -8
From Travis : 39% of all Apple's call open interest is on the Jan 19th (LEAP) expiry. 1M OI Jan 19 calls vs 2.5M all chains combined. This POS won't do anything until after earnings. 39% is that really accurate? If you don't mind me asking what was your source or how did you get that as that is very useful info in the future? How can we validate the 39%?
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Post by fas550 on Jan 10, 2013 12:06:18 GMT -8
It was asking only because each post was pretty gloomy with terms like no hope, little hope, Couldn't even etc... It was about the tone of the notes and definitely not a direct reflection on you because obviously I don't know you. Sorry if you took offense. Thanks for the explanation - no offense taken. If you look at a daily chart - it looks pretty 'gloomy' - you have to admit. And the whole downward move this AM after pretty good news (hopes) about the China deal didn't look too good either. That's what I wanted to point out. However, the good news is that 505 is very good support and if we should hit that again, I'll buy in. Btw - someone that works in a hospice has to be very upbeat and optimistic, otherwise they wouldn't last too long in that job. Good last point. Yes things suck. I don't have a lot of faith for a China deal soon as the Chinese are very patient and China mobile can simply wait it out for the right terms.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 10, 2013 12:06:56 GMT -8
While China Telecom and China Unicom continue to nibble customers away?
The game isn't on in earnest until TD-LTE is for real and/or a big competitor makes a big fuss over a big TD-LTE compatible smartphone push.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 10, 2013 12:14:33 GMT -8
Hmm, why would AAPL be going up on a Thursday afternoon? Stk Calls Puts 515 3,188 6,677 520 6,411 7,331525 9,504 6,100 530 12,531 4,869
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 10, 2013 12:16:29 GMT -8
While China Telecom and China Unicom continue to nibble customers away? The game isn't on in earnest until TD-LTE is for real and/or a big competitor makes a big fuss over a big TD-LTE compatible smartphone push. China moble has over 15-20m iphones on their network already. Also, the iPhone is an aspirational brand in china. Like LV/Prada bag - so AAPL better be very careful how they position this product.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 10, 2013 12:20:30 GMT -8
Hmm, why would AAPL be going up on a Thursday afternoon? Stk Calls Puts 515 3,188 6,677 520 6,411 7,331525 9,504 6,100 530 12,531 4,869 You always manage to make me laugh out loud...you just crack me up!
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Post by mace on Jan 10, 2013 12:23:14 GMT -8
39% is that really accurate? If you don't mind me asking what was your source or how did you get that as that is very useful info in the future? How can we validate the 39%? You can verify yourself using public data . I won't bother because this is usually the case just by eyeballing.
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Post by alice on Jan 10, 2013 12:26:24 GMT -8
I know how to verify the data the hard way. Want a simple method. I can't do it eyeballing.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 10, 2013 12:28:59 GMT -8
Hmm, why would AAPL be going up on a Thursday afternoon? Stk Calls Puts 515 3,188 6,677 520 6,411 7,331525 9,504 6,100 530 12,531 4,869 Yep, as I said this morning, we seem to get Thursdays bookended by a move to weekly max pain in the PM and starting about 2.30pm ET in the afternoon.
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Post by mace on Jan 10, 2013 12:29:20 GMT -8
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Post by ibuyer on Jan 10, 2013 12:33:10 GMT -8
lol
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Post by terps530 on Jan 10, 2013 12:43:03 GMT -8
Hmm, why would AAPL be going up on a Thursday afternoon? Stk Calls Puts 515 3,188 6,677 520 6,411 7,331525 9,504 6,100 530 12,531 4,869 Forgive me if it's obvious or I'm missing something. I've been wondering this week each time I see the above #'s: Why is the 530 Call level not bolded? I thought the pain would be the 525/530 level because the 530C + 525P add up to more than the 525C + 520P. Thanks edit: I may have answered my own question just looking at the graph. Is the max pain where the Puts/Calls cross on the graph? This would be between 520 & 525. I guess that makes more sense haha.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2013 12:55:10 GMT -8
Lots of volume ever since the surge started this afternoon - can anyone see whether its a large buyer or many little buyers?
It seems like someone big stepped into the market all of a sudden...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 10, 2013 12:55:36 GMT -8
Rangebound hypothesis?
But UP, so that's good.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2013 12:58:38 GMT -8
From theverge.com:
In 2010, Mark Hurd resigned as CEO of HP after a sexual harassment scandal and pressure from the board of directors — but according to an HP profile by Bloomberg Businessweek, Apple CEO Steve Jobs tried to fight his decision to protect HP's legacy. Three days after Hurd's resignation, he "received an e-mail from Steve Jobs. The Apple founder wanted to know if Hurd needed someone to talk to." In a subsequent conversation, Jobs offered to call up HP's board of directors one by one to convince them to let Hurd return, urging him to reconcile.
We've heard previously that Hurd was one of the biggest champions of Palm and webOS, which was positioned as a possible major competitor to Apple's then overwhelmingly dominant iOS. His ouster, however, was similar to Jobs' own 1985 demotion from head of the Macintosh group, which led to his departure from Apple. Even so, his support wasn't primarily for personal reasons. Jobs apparently argued that HP was "essential to a healthy Silicon Valley," and Hurd would be best equipped to save the struggling company. Indeed, HP's performance dropped off sharply after Hurd's departure, for a variety of reasons. Hurd, meanwhile, moved to Oracle, where he remains today as president.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 10, 2013 13:02:26 GMT -8
And from Reuters: (Reuters) - Apple Inc's Chief Executive Tim Cook met with China Mobile's Chairman Xi Guohua on Thursday to discuss " matters of cooperation," a China Mobile spokesman said, raising hopes that a deal between the two tech giants may move forward. I was kind of hoping they'd be discussing matters of disagreement, but I'm no CEO, what do I know?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2013 13:03:04 GMT -8
Well, the first intraday thread that I am starting. Hopefully it turns out as a green day. I nominate Big Al as official intraday thread starter (until we have a red day, then....Off with his Head!)
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Post by fas550 on Jan 10, 2013 13:05:25 GMT -8
Well, the first intraday thread that I am starting. Hopefully it turns out as a green day. I nominate Big Al as official intraday thread starter (until we have a red day, then....Off with his Head!) Me too. If he has the guts he'll start tomorrow's (Friday). If you can hold up Friday then you have arrived.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 10, 2013 13:07:36 GMT -8
On OpEx Friday, it doesn't matter.
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Post by nkmho on Jan 10, 2013 13:08:17 GMT -8
I know how to verify the data the hard way. Want a simple method. I can't do it eyeballing. I just checked this myself by pulling an options chain for calls across all expiration dates and copying the table into Excel. Then, I just highlighted column for OI and read the sum. Did the same with just the Jan 13 calls. Only took a minute or two.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2013 13:15:11 GMT -8
I know how to verify the data the hard way. Want a simple method. I can't do it eyeballing. I just checked this myself by pulling an options chain for calls across all expiration dates and copying the table into Excel. Then, I just highlighted column for OI and read the sum. Did the same with just the Jan 13 calls. Only took a minute or two. Looking at the huge amounts of puts & calls at both 500 & 600, Max Pain looks like it could be anywhere between them???
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 10, 2013 13:21:15 GMT -8
I just checked this myself by pulling an options chain for calls across all expiration dates and copying the table into Excel. Then, I just highlighted column for OI and read the sum. Did the same with just the Jan 13 calls. Only took a minute or two. Looking at the huge amounts of puts & calls at both 500 & 600, Max Pain looks like it could be anywhere between them??? As I mentioned last night, I think 525 is a nice put floor.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 10, 2013 13:26:43 GMT -8
Good news is bad news No news is bad news Bad news is bad news Or more commonly known as a trend. Exactly! And when it's UP again, all of those will be good news! I thought it was good of the bulls to at least show up today -- that's diffferent. Usually, the bears steal our candy and we let them. Today we stole it back at least.
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