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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 8:57:22 GMT -8
Volume is up compared to yesterday at this time. Volume has been an interesting watch these past several months. Last week's average daily volume was the lowest (10.9 Million daily) since the week ending December 28 2012. Daily average for the March quarter of 2012 was 23.9 million. That was the last quarter that the Market believed Apple met/exceeded expectations. I would like to see daily average exceed 20.0 million. To me that would be the strongest indication the the institutions are back in the hunt for shares. I agree. We need to be over 600 to see that because I think the little guys will start to jump in at that time. July is a good timeframe to see more volume as new products come out. I think the iPad Mini with Retina will be a monster hit this fall. I can't tell you how many people I saw in Vegas using the big ass iPads as video cameras and for picture taking. I also think the iPHone 5S and a new rebranded cheaper iPhone (repackaged iPhone 4S) will sell very well in 2nd half of the year. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 9:01:34 GMT -8
Part of reason that I think we will hit ATH by end of the year, is because the market tends to be backward looking in a way. Last year we went from 350 to 700 in about 12 months. In that period eps grew 98%. This year I anticipated eps to grow between 15-20%. Add 15% to 705 post Oct earnings with solid guidance and new products for 1st quarter 2014 and you get 810. And that folks is based on a p/e of 16. Are you assuming at huge buyback? say 15-20% of float? No. I see a 25% increase in dividend and an increase of another $10Billion over 3 years in buy backs. Apple will look even stronger with solid growth and massive cash pile come Dec. I think Dividend funds who have yet to really buy the stock want to see a pattern of dividend increases with a stable stock price and growing market share in smartphones and tablets. Samsung will be in big trouble by this fall and WS will start give Apple credit for keeping Samsung at bay. I think WS is afraid of Android more then anything else, that is why Google gets a p/e of 25 and we get a p/e of 10 right now. Give it time and we will be rewarded. |
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 2, 2013 9:09:09 GMT -8
Part of reason that I think we will hit ATH by end of the year, is because the market tends to be backward looking in a way. Last year we went from 350 to 700 in about 12 months. In that period eps grew 98%. This year I anticipated eps to grow between 15-20%. Add 15% to 705 post Oct earnings with solid guidance and new products for 1st quarter 2014 and you get 810. And that folks is based on a p/e of 16. What are willing to wager on that? |
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 2, 2013 9:16:39 GMT -8
That is what I have trouble seeing. I can essentially maintain the position for 7 years waiting for Apple to get above my purchase price. At the rate they are accruing cash, in seven years the cash alone would be more than $500 per share. An earnings miss and a drop to $200 would not be pleasant, but I just have to wait it out and probably at a positive cash flow. Tell me more about the world of hurt or I am jumping  All I can say is that nothing is forever. Not even Apple. Also, how certain are you that you could stomach the drop to $200 (your example) and have the conviction that the stock is coming back? For how long? People make bad decisions when they take a paper loss, and there is no certainty of that loss ever being recovered. I also agree on asset allocation. I am living this one now, and it is for a much more positive reason, since I have been in since 2002. I am way overweight on Apple, and wondering if I am ever going to see $700 again. It wears on you, and right now I still don't know if I should be selling everything. Part of the territory when you get overweight, and it is hugely stressful. I am not in the same reality distortion field as some here are, in that I think there is a real possibility that Apple's best days are behind it. If so, being overweight has huge opportunity cost. I think lots of us are in that position. How do you manage this trapped long and "isn't in the price" feelings? What are looking at to bail or feel more comfortable to hold? |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 2, 2013 9:22:29 GMT -8
Hard to say. I thought a few weeks back that we would have resolution by mid-April. I definitely don't think that anymore. If the bottom was not 419, I am expecting resolution over the next 3-6 months. I don't expect it to take into 2014. Time is tricky though, and not very important IMO. I'm not going long now, so I don't really care how long this takes. I'll just continue to short the big rallies so I can hedge my commons. Doc, Thanks for your opinion. Are you in commons exclusively at this point, or do you have any 2014 or 15 spreads? Most of my AAPL positions are commons. I have April bull spreads that are trash. I have October bull spreads that are likely to end up being trash, but they at least have a shot if we rebound soon. Last time I added any bull positions was December (I wanted to in January pre-earnings, but iPad convinced me otherwise ;D). I'm not in the business of trying to perfectly time the bottom anymore. That did nothing but get me in trouble since October. Rather, I'll wait for confirmation of a bottom. While missing out on probably 50-100 points, I get the comfort of having a much safer entry, while still catching the majority of the up wave. What's confirmation for me? It'll depend on how the future plays out, but at the very least we have to recapture the weekly SMA100 and have a decisive break of the log-scale weekly downtrend line. I will not even consider adding positions until then. |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 2, 2013 9:31:16 GMT -8
How do you manage this trapped long and "isn't in the price" feelings? What are looking at to bail or feel more comfortable to hold? I sold 3/4 of my commons at 455 on the bounce off 435. They were sold for a loss of <10%. I lost money that I couldn't believe I ever could lose. But you know what? It gave me my sanity back. I am damn near certain that over the next few years we will see a new ATH. But taking that loss was worth avoiding the day to day anxiety that I was having over watching the stock get creamed. At the end of the day, this has been an incredible learning experience, and will only help me to make money in the future. |
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 2, 2013 9:42:16 GMT -8
How do you manage this trapped long and "isn't in the price" feelings? What are looking at to bail or feel more comfortable to hold? I sold 3/4 of my commons at 455 on the bounce off 435. They were sold for a loss of <10%. I lost money that I couldn't believe I ever could lose. But you know what? It gave me my sanity back. I am damn near certain that over the next few years we will see a new ATH. But taking that loss was worth avoiding the day to day anxiety that I was having over watching the stock get creamed. At the end of the day, this has been an incredible learning experience, and will only help me to make money in the future. Thanks for sharing |
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Post by cbingle on Apr 2, 2013 9:48:58 GMT -8
AAPL is now the JC Penny of tech. Wow. Chide Cramer all you want, but perception is reality.
To go from top company in the world to a comment like that in 6 months is...I do not even have a word. That perception is on AAPL management, I don't care what you say. Steve Balmer is laughing at Timmy. Amazing.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2013 10:01:01 GMT -8
Part of reason that I think we will hit ATH by end of the year, is because the market tends to be backward looking in a way. Last year we went from 350 to 700 in about 12 months. In that period eps grew 98%. This year I anticipated eps to grow between 15-20%. Add 15% to 705 post Oct earnings with solid guidance and new products for 1st quarter 2014 and you get 810. And that folks is based on a p/e of 16. You see Apple almost doubling in less than 9 months? We've missed earnings 4 of the past 5 and all expectations are for another tough report in April, at least comparing it to the April of 2012. |
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Post by mace on Apr 2, 2013 10:03:17 GMT -8
Can I get someone to talk me down from the ledge? Tell me why this is a bad idea. Here is the situation...I own my house outright and it is worth about $750,000. I can borrow $425,000 on a 7/1 ARM at 2.83% with about $3000 closing costs. Apple is paying dividends at 2.63% and is likely to raise the dividend. The bank has no problem loaning the money for investment purposes. Is there any reason not to mortgage the house and buy 1000 shares? The dividend pays for the loan. For the purposes of this discussion, ignore the tax consequences. Is ok so long your almanac said AAPL would be up . Can't advise since I don't have an almanac. Had been selling AAPLs over the year to pay back mortgage of the owner-occupied residence. After fully paid back, had since bought an additional SFH. Personally, I don't like to be in debt. So I won't borrow $ against my house to invest no matter juicy is the potential return of the investment. |
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Post by rob_london on Apr 2, 2013 10:09:52 GMT -8
Not sure what has caused the slump in the past hour, other than the WSJ reporting that Apple will begin production of a new model “similar in size and shape” to the current iPhone 5 in Q2.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 2, 2013 10:15:56 GMT -8
Not sure what has caused the slump in the past hour, other than the WSJ reporting that Apple will begin production of a new model “similar in size and shape” to the current iPhone 5 in Q2. Cramer slamming Apple on CNBC is not helpful. |
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Post by joel90069 on Apr 2, 2013 10:18:02 GMT -8
Not sure what has caused the slump in the past hour, other than the WSJ reporting that Apple will begin production of a new model “similar in size and shape” to the current iPhone 5 in Q2. Cramer slamming Apple on CNBC is not helpful. That happened hours ago. Is there something else going on? |
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Post by mace on Apr 2, 2013 10:20:07 GMT -8
Part of reason that I think we will hit ATH by end of the year, is because the market tends to be backward looking in a way. Last year we went from 350 to 700 in about 12 months. In that period eps grew 98%. This year I anticipated eps to grow between 15-20%. Add 15% to 705 post Oct earnings with solid guidance and new products for 1st quarter 2014 and you get 810. And that folks is based on a p/e of 16. I hope you've been preparing for the worst and hoping for the best outcome. Is possible that AAPL is still below $500 at the end of the year. Now is too early to talk about ATH because the possibility of Apple best days may indeed be over. The earliest bullish news (other than dividends/share buyback) from Apple is during WWDC. Market and Apple is still adjusting to post-SJ era. I believe the next BIG thing would come from services (e.g. mobile payment) and cloud computing. Going forward, growing revenue from hardware would be painfully difficult, and the market knows it. I'm with appledoc's strategy. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 2, 2013 10:21:01 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Apr 2, 2013 10:24:09 GMT -8
Cramer slamming Apple on CNBC is not helpful. That happened hours ago. Is there something else going on? Then the only explanation is my earlier post saying that Apple's best days may be behind it. Market mover that I am.  |
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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 10:25:41 GMT -8
Here comes red.
Not sure why other then delayed reaction to GS downgrade on price target.
GOOG is up, no surprise there.
I do think we will close green today and tomorrow.
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Post by mace on Apr 2, 2013 10:26:00 GMT -8
The takeaway is the bottom would be there when nobody like AAPL, there are still people likes AAPL. Can you all turn to AAPL bears now, especially sponge. Follow me, AAPL is a loser stock, short it hard. Don't buy till sponge is a bear. |
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Post by mace on Apr 2, 2013 10:29:00 GMT -8
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Post by joel90069 on Apr 2, 2013 10:31:06 GMT -8
I agree. Cramer wasn't really slamming AAPL. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 10:31:54 GMT -8
I will never be a bear. I know too much to care how WS prices the stock.
Mace
EW shows big movement in the coming months. Don't get too bearish on us.
Cramer by the way is actually Bullish and just being a sarcastic entertainer by sounding bearish.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 2, 2013 10:32:20 GMT -8
I agree. Cramer wasn't really slamming AAPL. Ya, but there are lots of stories spinning it as a slam. |
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Post by ongba on Apr 2, 2013 10:32:43 GMT -8
Last time I added any bull positions was December (I wanted to in January pre-earnings, but iPad convinced me otherwise ;D). I'm not in the business of trying to perfectly time the bottom anymore. That did nothing but get me in trouble since October. Rather, I'll wait for confirmation of a bottom. While missing out on probably 50-100 points, I get the comfort of having a much safer entry, while still catching the majority of the up wave. What's confirmation for me? It'll depend on how the future plays out, but at the very least we have to recapture the weekly SMA100 and have a decisive break of the log-scale weekly downtrend line. I will not even consider adding positions until then. Doc, Thanks again for your insight. I have some Jan 14 & 15 spreads. Looks like I will need to reposition the Jan 14s at the least. Will wait for confirmation of low as well as this tape has been truly wicked over the last month. |
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Post by joel90069 on Apr 2, 2013 10:43:05 GMT -8
I agree. Cramer wasn't really slamming AAPL. Ya, but there are lots of stories spinning it as a slam. I still find it hard to believe that we could fall $8, that quickly, based on anything connected to Jim Cramer. |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 2, 2013 10:45:51 GMT -8
EW shows big movement in the coming months. No it doesn't. |
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 2, 2013 10:57:29 GMT -8
I will never be a bear. I know too much to care how WS prices the stock. homer: Someone who shows blind loyalty to a team or organization, typically ignoring any shortcomings or faults they have. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 10:59:42 GMT -8
EW shows big movement in the coming months. No it doesn't. Talk to mace. Yes we may visit 390 but we are about to go very bullish. Just read the WS report on 5S. Great news since they usually confirm things. Sooner then I anticipated Lots of folks ready to upgrade this summer and more Android defections patiently waiting for the 5S. Think 4S all over again. The cheaper phone is also great news. Looks like CM in Oct. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 11:01:58 GMT -8
I will never be a bear. I know too much to care how WS prices the stock. homer: Someone who shows blind loyalty to a team or organization, typically ignoring any shortcomings or faults they have. You are new here. Same thing people said to me 3 years ago at $200. Get back to me in 3 years and then again in 3 more. Apple best days are in the future not now.iOS products are part of a mobile revolution that is just getting started. |
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Post by ongba on Apr 2, 2013 11:05:57 GMT -8
Gregg and appledoc, What is your WAG for how long aapl could trade sideways for? Several more months or for the rest of 2013? Until we get past the horrible YoY GM% compare I think AAPL will essentially trade sideways with a slight upward bias. FQ2/2012 GM% 47.37% That's an all time high for Apple, and should be considered an extreme outlier result. Excluding FQ1/2012 (another outlier) the previous 7 quarter average GM% is 39.94%. FQ3/2012 produced GM% of 42.81%. This is a much more realistic (although still not the best) compare. I'm expecting Apple to generate 40.0% GMs for the just completed quarter. There is good reason to believe that June quarter GMs will be slightly higher than that (41%?). FQ4/2012 produced GM% of 40.50%. This is inline with historical averages (sans outliers) and will be the first really good GM% compare. Its despicable that the talking heads (and WS "pros") don't point out that Apple's margins are not "falling", but rather just retreating from all time high (and industry leading by a factor of 2.3) results. APPL is being punished (to some extent) because it has been so efficient in the past. It will be September guidance that will cause AAPL to begin appreciating more consistently. Gregg, Thanks for your thoughts. If you are correct, it looks like it is going to be a long summer for AAPL bulls. |
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 2, 2013 11:09:16 GMT -8
homer: Someone who shows blind loyalty to a team or organization, typically ignoring any shortcomings or faults they have. You are new here. Same thing people said to me 3 years ago at $200. Get back to me in 3 years and then again in 3 more. Apple best days are in the future not now.iOS products are part of a mobile revolution that is just getting started. homer: Someone who shows blind loyalty to a team or organization, typically ignoring any shortcomings or faults they have. Aparently you know how Apple will be like in 6 years. #blindfaith |
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