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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 2, 2013 3:04:13 GMT -8
AAPL is removed from Goldman's "Conviction List" - they still rate it as a buy but off the list. Could be a great contra-indicator!
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Post by rickag on Apr 2, 2013 3:41:57 GMT -8
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Post by prazan on Apr 2, 2013 4:27:23 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Apr 2, 2013 5:24:49 GMT -8
Don't worry about finding reasons for drops. It's largely a guessing game and not all that important unless it's a game changer over the long term.
I will say that there's still a chance the bottom was 419. Unlikely, but there's a chance.
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Post by terps530 on Apr 2, 2013 5:25:23 GMT -8
judging from the premarket bleed, it looks like testing the 419-420 level will be inevitable. if that breaks, does this freefall like some of the other 'support' breaks that broke over the past few months?
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Post by ongba on Apr 2, 2013 5:36:32 GMT -8
AAPL is removed from Goldman's "Conviction List" - they still rate it as a buy but off the list. Could be a great contra-indicator! I would tend to agree. If history is a guide, the vampire squid is buying AAPL and wants it lower. |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 2, 2013 5:36:59 GMT -8
judging from the premarket bleed, it looks like testing the 419-420 level will be inevitable. if that breaks, does this freefall like some of the other 'support' breaks that broke over the past few months? IMO, no. We're nearing the end, which can mean more sideways moving while trying to find the actual bottom. Now, I do think we could still trim 20% off the current price, but I don't think it will be a quick bleed. |
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Post by terps530 on Apr 2, 2013 5:41:25 GMT -8
hooray i was wrong as usual, for now.
i agree doc in the sense that the lower these levels stagger, the slower the bleed will be afterwards.
im hoping all the buyers right now end up being bottom winners, and not headfake x100 bagholders.
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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 6:11:28 GMT -8
No surprise. The moment I am forced to sell is the moment aapl goes up. Oh well. It's only numbers on some screen.
Glad we are moving up and I am hopeful we will close above 445 by Friday.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 2, 2013 6:43:44 GMT -8
hooray i was wrong as usual, for now. i agree doc in the sense that the lower these levels stagger, the slower the bleed will be afterwards. im hoping all the buyers right now end up being bottom winners, and not headfake x100 bagholders. In reality, most of the buyers this second will have sold their position a second later.  |
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Post by mjuarez on Apr 2, 2013 6:45:35 GMT -8
Back in with a few dollars I was able to scrape up. Some JAN14s, with "core" position being now on JUL13 420/400s, and small position in OCT13 500/480s.
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Post by seabiscuit on Apr 2, 2013 7:22:10 GMT -8
Despite GS Apple moved up thus far. Any thoughts on if the positive move is because of the strong market today, OR, PPS has buyers under 430?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2013 7:31:05 GMT -8
Despite GS Apple moved up thus far. Any thoughts on if the positive move is because of the strong market today, OR, PPS has buyers under 430? Until we get past earnings anything could happen. After the last three earnings reports, we need one that looks good to remove the doom and gloom. I'm looking for AAPL to trade sideways after earnings, with an upward bias. |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 2, 2013 7:35:12 GMT -8
Europe and parts of Asia are back today so action in many names is different. That may have a bit to do with some of the movement out there.
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Post by ongba on Apr 2, 2013 7:37:14 GMT -8
Gregg and appledoc,
What is your WAG for how long aapl could trade sideways for? Several more months or for the rest of 2013?
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Post by appledoc on Apr 2, 2013 7:52:02 GMT -8
Gregg and appledoc, What is your WAG for how long aapl could trade sideways for? Several more months or for the rest of 2013? Hard to say. I thought a few weeks back that we would have resolution by mid-April. I definitely don't think that anymore. If the bottom was not 419, I am expecting resolution over the next 3-6 months. I don't expect it to take into 2014. Time is tricky though, and not very important IMO. I'm not going long now, so I don't really care how long this takes. I'll just continue to short the big rallies so I can hedge my commons. |
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Post by bud777 on Apr 2, 2013 8:02:26 GMT -8
Can I get someone to talk me down from the ledge? Tell me why this is a bad idea. Here is the situation...I own my house outright and it is worth about $750,000. I can borrow $425,000 on a 7/1 ARM at 2.83% with about $3000 closing costs. Apple is paying dividends at 2.63% and is likely to raise the dividend. The bank has no problem loaning the money for investment purposes. Is there any reason not to mortgage the house and buy 1000 shares?
The dividend pays for the loan. For the purposes of this discussion, ignore the tax consequences.
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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 8:13:36 GMT -8
Can I get someone to talk me down from the ledge? Tell me why this is a bad idea. Here is the situation...I own my house outright and it is worth about $750,000. I can borrow $425,000 on a 7/1 ARM at 2.83% with about $3000 closing costs. Apple is paying dividends at 2.63% and is likely to raise the dividend. The bank has no problem loaning the money for investment purposes. Is there any reason not to mortgage the house and buy 1000 shares? The dividend pays for the loan. For the purposes of this discussion, ignore the tax consequences. I like the way you think. I took out $20K in 2005 and bought aapl. My house will be paid off in 6 years, but if my Jan550 Calls come thru I will pay it off in Jan. Afterward I will use part of the mortgage payment and just keep buying aapl. |
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Post by Lstream on Apr 2, 2013 8:14:20 GMT -8
Can I get someone to talk me down from the ledge? Tell me why this is a bad idea. Here is the situation...I own my house outright and it is worth about $750,000. I can borrow $425,000 on a 7/1 ARM at 2.83% with about $3000 closing costs. Apple is paying dividends at 2.63% and is likely to raise the dividend. The bank has no problem loaning the money for investment purposes. Is there any reason not to mortgage the house and buy 1000 shares? The dividend pays for the loan. For the purposes of this discussion, ignore the tax consequences. If Apple misses Q2 badly, then you will be in a world of hurt with this strategy. I feel that is a distinct possibility. |
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 2, 2013 8:15:22 GMT -8
Can I get someone to talk me down from the ledge? Tell me why this is a bad idea. Here is the situation...I own my house outright and it is worth about $750,000. I can borrow $425,000 on a 7/1 ARM at 2.83% with about $3000 closing costs. Apple is paying dividends at 2.63% and is likely to raise the dividend. The bank has no problem loaning the money for investment purposes. Is there any reason not to mortgage the house and buy 1000 shares? The dividend pays for the loan. For the purposes of this discussion, ignore the tax consequences. bud, please look at your asset allocation. Apple probably should not be too great a portion of your net worth. There are questions on industry profits and innovations. Think about how much you are willing to lose and how much your future income compares to your nest egg. Also, to hedge interest rate risk, why not have a 30 year fixed? Hope it helps. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 8:27:52 GMT -8
Volume is up compared to yesterday at this time. We did not retest the lows this morning like I was anticipating.
If we close above 440 today, we could see another bull run back to 460 by Monday.
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Post by bud777 on Apr 2, 2013 8:30:47 GMT -8
Can I get someone to talk me down from the ledge? Tell me why this is a bad idea. Here is the situation...I own my house outright and it is worth about $750,000. I can borrow $425,000 on a 7/1 ARM at 2.83% with about $3000 closing costs. Apple is paying dividends at 2.63% and is likely to raise the dividend. The bank has no problem loaning the money for investment purposes. Is there any reason not to mortgage the house and buy 1000 shares? The dividend pays for the loan. For the purposes of this discussion, ignore the tax consequences. bud, please look at your asset allocation. Apple probably should not be too great a portion of your net worth. There are questions on industry profits and innovations. Think about how much you are willing to lose and how much your future income compares to your nest egg. Also, to hedge interest rate risk, why not have a 30 year fixed? Hope it helps. Thanks ibuyer. The 7/1 ARM has a much lower rate and the rate is fixed for the first 7 years. I would sell the shares and get out of the position much sooner than that. As far as diversification goes, I am a follower of the Mark Twain method of investing. He said, "Put all your eggs in one basket, then WATCH THAT BASKET!" |
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Post by bud777 on Apr 2, 2013 8:36:51 GMT -8
Can I get someone to talk me down from the ledge? Tell me why this is a bad idea. Here is the situation...I own my house outright and it is worth about $750,000. I can borrow $425,000 on a 7/1 ARM at 2.83% with about $3000 closing costs. Apple is paying dividends at 2.63% and is likely to raise the dividend. The bank has no problem loaning the money for investment purposes. Is there any reason not to mortgage the house and buy 1000 shares? The dividend pays for the loan. For the purposes of this discussion, ignore the tax consequences. If Apple misses Q2 badly, then you will be in a world of hurt with this strategy. I feel that is a distinct possibility. That is what I have trouble seeing. I can essentially maintain the position for 7 years waiting for Apple to get above my purchase price. At the rate they are accruing cash, in seven years the cash alone would be more than $500 per share. An earnings miss and a drop to $200 would not be pleasant, but I just have to wait it out and probably at a positive cash flow. Tell me more about the world of hurt or I am jumping  |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2013 8:39:43 GMT -8
Gregg and appledoc, What is your WAG for how long aapl could trade sideways for? Several more months or for the rest of 2013? Until we get past the horrible YoY GM% compare I think AAPL will essentially trade sideways with a slight upward bias. FQ2/2012 GM% 47.37% That's an all time high for Apple, and should be considered an extreme outlier result. Excluding FQ1/2012 (another outlier) the previous 7 quarter average GM% is 39.94%. FQ3/2012 produced GM% of 42.81%. This is a much more realistic (although still not the best) compare. I'm expecting Apple to generate 40.0% GMs for the just completed quarter. There is good reason to believe that June quarter GMs will be slightly higher than that (41%?). FQ4/2012 produced GM% of 40.50%. This is inline with historical averages (sans outliers) and will be the first really good GM% compare. Its despicable that the talking heads (and WS "pros") don't point out that Apple's margins are not "falling", but rather just retreating from all time high (and industry leading by a factor of 2.3) results. APPL is being punished (to some extent) because it has been so efficient in the past. It will be September guidance that will cause AAPL to begin appreciating more consistently. |
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Post by ongba on Apr 2, 2013 8:41:47 GMT -8
Gregg and appledoc, What is your WAG for how long aapl could trade sideways for? Several more months or for the rest of 2013? Hard to say. I thought a few weeks back that we would have resolution by mid-April. I definitely don't think that anymore. If the bottom was not 419, I am expecting resolution over the next 3-6 months. I don't expect it to take into 2014. Time is tricky though, and not very important IMO. I'm not going long now, so I don't really care how long this takes. I'll just continue to short the big rallies so I can hedge my commons. Doc, Thanks for your opinion. Are you in commons exclusively at this point, or do you have any 2014 or 15 spreads? |
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Post by Lstream on Apr 2, 2013 8:48:12 GMT -8
If Apple misses Q2 badly, then you will be in a world of hurt with this strategy. I feel that is a distinct possibility. That is what I have trouble seeing. I can essentially maintain the position for 7 years waiting for Apple to get above my purchase price. At the rate they are accruing cash, in seven years the cash alone would be more than $500 per share. An earnings miss and a drop to $200 would not be pleasant, but I just have to wait it out and probably at a positive cash flow. Tell me more about the world of hurt or I am jumping All I can say is that nothing is forever. Not even Apple. Also, how certain are you that you could stomach the drop to $200 (your example) and have the conviction that the stock is coming back? For how long? People make bad decisions when they take a paper loss, and there is no certainty of that loss ever being recovered. I also agree on asset allocation. I am living this one now, and it is for a much more positive reason, since I have been in since 2002. I am way overweight on Apple, and wondering if I am ever going to see $700 again. It wears on you, and right now I still don't know if I should be selling everything. Part of the territory when you get overweight, and it is hugely stressful. I am not in the same reality distortion field as some here are, in that I think there is a real possibility that Apple's best days are behind it. If so, being overweight has huge opportunity cost. |
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 2, 2013 8:50:43 GMT -8
bud, please look at your asset allocation. Apple probably should not be too great a portion of your net worth. There are questions on industry profits and innovations. Think about how much you are willing to lose and how much your future income compares to your nest egg. Also, to hedge interest rate risk, why not have a 30 year fixed? Hope it helps. Thanks ibuyer. The 7/1 ARM has a much lower rate and the rate is fixed for the first 7 years. I would sell the shares and get out of the position much sooner than that. As far as diversification goes, I am a follower of the Mark Twain method of investing. He said, "Put all your eggs in one basket, then WATCH THAT BASKET!" It sounds like you are borrowing eggs and putting them in the same basket. Concentration in investing is good if you see something others do not. You are assuming the Apple future earnings are set. In reality, they are not, look 3 years ago. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2013 8:51:36 GMT -8
Volume is up compared to yesterday at this time. Volume has been an interesting watch these past several months. Last week's average daily volume was the lowest (10.9 Million daily) since the week ending December 28 2012. Daily average for the March quarter of 2012 was 23.9 million. That was the last quarter that the Market believed Apple met/exceeded expectations. I would like to see daily average exceed 20.0 million. To me that would be the strongest indication the the institutions are back in the hunt for shares. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 2, 2013 8:53:54 GMT -8
Part of reason that I think we will hit ATH by end of the year, is because the market tends to be backward looking in a way.
Last year we went from 350 to 700 in about 12 months. In that period eps grew 98%.
This year I anticipated eps to grow between 15-20%.
Add 15% to 705 post Oct earnings with solid guidance and new products for 1st quarter 2014 and you get 810. And that folks is based on a p/e of 16.
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Post by ibuyer on Apr 2, 2013 8:56:53 GMT -8
Part of reason that I think we will hit ATH by end of the year, is because the market tends to be backward looking in a way. Last year we went from 350 to 700 in about 12 months. In that period eps grew 98%. This year I anticipated eps to grow between 15-20%. Add 15% to 705 post Oct earnings with solid guidance and new products for 1st quarter 2014 and you get 810. And that folks is based on a p/e of 16. Are you assuming at huge buyback? say 15-20% of float? |
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