Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 12:09:33 GMT -8
Wait, Robert kicked people off Braeburn? Really?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 12:35:29 GMT -8
Wait, Robert kicked people off Braeburn? Really? I think Robert was doing a little pruning of members who stopped posting. I don't think he's kicking anyone out. But I'll defer to Robert for the full 411. In case you haven't already heard: There's a real s**t-storm at Apple 2.0 over Samsung trolling the site with down votes targeting PED's article covering Samsung's scurrilous marketing efforts.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 12:37:57 GMT -8
The more certain you are in your estimations, the more accountable you'll be if you turn out wrong. So I hope it turns out well. (I just post my humble home game estimates to AFB to participate in discussions, to learn, to grow, because I feel as an AAPL trader/investor I need to better understand the company. Never as anything authoritative.) C'mon Mav. There's clearly no accountability on the independent end. It's unfortunate that the same people on this board complaining about WS's lofty expectations are doing the exact same thing. I'm anticipating a lot of disappointed independents on Wednesday. Quit setting the ceiling so high.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 12:39:57 GMT -8
I am surprised to read that. You always seemed to have Ballmerish appeal .,, For that, I must share a less flattering pic of Red if you're thinking of having drinks with him. Note the small arms when the check comes...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 12:41:11 GMT -8
C'mon, hedge. I'm trying to be as polite as possible talking sponge's estimates here.
Just curious, you think I'm being irresponsible/delusional/whatever with my estimation work here? (Not that I can do much harm, no one hangs out at Fundamentals anyway.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 12:43:05 GMT -8
Wait, Robert kicked people off Braeburn? Really? I think Robert was doing a little pruning of members who stopped posting. I don't think he's kicking anyone out. But I'll defer to Robert for the full 411. In case you haven't already heard: There's a real s**t-storm at Apple 2.0 over Samsung trolling the site with down votes targeting PED's article covering Samsung's scurrilous marketing efforts. Samsung doesn't need that kind of, er, "social campaign". It doesn't need to have its subsidiaries imitate Chinese state-run media attacks on Apple. That's just completely stupid.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 12:59:26 GMT -8
C'mon, hedge. I'm trying to be as polite as possible talking sponge's estimates here. Just curious, you think I'm being irresponsible/delusional/whatever with my estimation work here? (Not that I can do much harm, no one hangs out at Fundamentals anyway.) Your estimates aren't being posted on CNNMoney for the whole world to see. I can disagree with what you post, but it won't bother me. Not saying I even do disagree since I haven't looked in the fundamentals section. Looking at that chart, you'd think Sponge and Gregg were on equal footing with Horace. We may know that isn't the case, but the casual observer doesn't. They're just two guys on a message board. I'm wondering if PED read this board if he would even add those two in. Gregg still thinks a massive buyback is a gimmick, yet he has his earnings estimates published? That's not even an attack. It's the truth. Maybe I'm the only one who thinks that the published high expectations of the independents have contributed to the perceived "misses" of the past three quarters and hurt share price. But you can't certainly say they've helped.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 13:05:17 GMT -8
Zero disagreement on that last part. Some have yet to recalibrate enough. On the other hand, their credibility is pretty much shot right now as a group, even though the more "bearish" independents are often in-line with the WS analysts.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 21, 2013 13:40:46 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Apr 21, 2013 14:04:08 GMT -8
Hedge
I have only started to estimate quarterly earnings last year in Oct. However I take issue with your shots at Gregg and I. We are all different in our own way, but I am very comfortable with the fact that Gregg, Horace, and I understand Apple on an equal footing.
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Post by sponge on Apr 21, 2013 14:14:08 GMT -8
Wait, Robert kicked people off Braeburn? Really? He actually does not kick you out, just bans you from posting. He banned me because I was posting too much here. The group claims to have 345 members, but in reality it is more like 10 who post regularly. If he was fair he should remove everyone who does not post. But to each his own. One interesting observation about the list on Apple 2.0, is that Gregg and I may be the only ones who are not affiliated with some money making website or business.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 21, 2013 15:07:50 GMT -8
Hedge I have only started to estimate quarterly earnings last year in Oct. However I take issue with your shots at Gregg and I. We are all different in our own way, but I am very comfortable with the fact that Gregg, Horace, and I understand Apple on an equal footing.If that is indeed true, then there is one person among the three that proves his understanding an order of magnitude better than the other two.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 15:42:56 GMT -8
Hedge I have only started to estimate quarterly earnings last year in Oct. However I take issue with your shots at Gregg and I. We are all different in our own way, but I am very comfortable with the fact that Gregg, Horace, and I understand Apple on an equal footing. Horace understands this industry better than anyone else I can think of off the top of my head. His analysis is thorough and thruthful. The three of you are not equals.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 15:55:46 GMT -8
[Asymco does have estimates this quarter, whoops]
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Post by sponge on Apr 21, 2013 16:05:50 GMT -8
Actually he has 42.80 in revenue with 10.60 for eps.
And muller has 42.80 and 10.69
Mav you need to look at Apple 2.0
Deagol took this quarter off.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 16:10:08 GMT -8
My bad, I stand corrected!
Horace didn't update his website, and neither did Turley. I didn't notice them on PED's chart right away.
Both Horace and Turley may be a tiny bit more optimistic on GM than I am, it depends on their OpEx estimates. Less than 2 days to go...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 16:20:59 GMT -8
Actually he has 42.80 in revenue with 10.60 for eps. And muller has 42.80 and 10.69 Mav you need to look at Apple 2.0 Deagol took this quarter off. Turley is really the one to beat among the analysts, particularly the amateurs. I'm surprised Daniel is taking the quarter off, but he was there at the beginning of this quarterly event and was always in the hunt. In the early days of the iPhone, he was tracking unit sales like nobody else, until Apple switched it up and blocked his ability to count. Horace is known more for his analysis of the mobile industry than his EPS estimates.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 21, 2013 16:53:13 GMT -8
The range between aggressive and bearish is about what should be expected given Oppy's pretty clear guidance on the revenue range. Yeah, they could beat it but what happened this quarter to make one think that? Better Mac production? Nah. No new big carriers added. China better be really good! iPad mini did sell a lot of units... But I see nothing to take me above 37million phones and $10.43
Wish I did.. Go GM!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 17:03:56 GMT -8
The range between aggressive and bearish is about what should be expected given Oppy's pretty clear guidance on the revenue range. Yeah, they could beat it but what happened this quarter to make one think that? Better Mac production? Nah. No new big carriers added. China better be really good! iPad mini did sell a lot of units... But I see nothing to take me above 37million phones and $10.43 Wish I did.. Go GM! I'm at 36.5M iPhones. You're the new Bull+ ;D I think Apple will report at least a 1% improvement from FQ1 2013 to FQ2, despite the decline in iPhone unit sales. The last time they didn't was FQ1 10 to FQ2 10 (just under 1% then).
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 21, 2013 17:11:42 GMT -8
I'm counting on Straighttalk and the rest of the mom and pops to push enough iPhone 4S to close the gap. Grandma saves the quarter. Attachments:
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 21, 2013 17:16:36 GMT -8
What is the consequence of not doing so? Apple would bankrupt? Apple would be taken private? Apple would be bought over by Samsung? Traders who long would go belly up? Traders who short would be very rich? Obviously none of those. But hey, if Apple just wants to continue to use it's cash in the least effective way possible, I'm sure they'll continue to drive away current shareholders like myself. I'd like to understand this a bit more. If Apple had, say, only $40B in cash, and all else was the same - 9.X TTM P/E, margins in high 30s/low 40s, growth 10-20%, etc, would you also be driven away?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 17:25:08 GMT -8
I'm not hedge, but I'd be way scared. UNLESS the reason for the $40B was due to more aggressive dividends and buybacks.
Then again, that might be going in the direction of "perceived desperation".
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 21, 2013 17:27:47 GMT -8
I'm not hedge, but I'd be way scared. UNLESS the reason for the $40B was due to more aggressive dividends and buybacks. Then again, that might be going in the direction of "perceived desperation". So where would you invest otherwise? (i.e. instead of a company as described above)
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 17:33:44 GMT -8
Obviously none of those. But hey, if Apple just wants to continue to use it's cash in the least effective way possible, I'm sure they'll continue to drive away current shareholders like myself. I'd like to understand this a bit more. If Apple had, say, only $40B in cash, and all else was the same - 9.X TTM P/E, margins in high 30s/low 40s, growth 10-20%, etc, would you also be driven away? I'd have been long gone already. I'm counting on something big with that cash. Beyond just a dividend hike and huge increase in the buyback.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 17:37:41 GMT -8
I'm not hedge, but I'd be way scared. UNLESS the reason for the $40B was due to more aggressive dividends and buybacks. Then again, that might be going in the direction of "perceived desperation". So where would you invest otherwise? (i.e. instead of a company as described above) Like I am at this moment: nowhere. I'm a trader right now (except for my small AAPL core that I've been stubbornly holding on too). I'll let the volatility cool off before making evaluations for entering long term positions again. I'm hoping AAPL is one of them.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 17:38:16 GMT -8
If it's a large acquisition you're looking for, I'm not sure you'll ever get it. And I mean even a "mere" $10B in a single buy.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 17:38:53 GMT -8
China launch being in Q1 this fiscal year concerns me for Wednesday. Still have the Chinese New Year to help the quarter though.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 21, 2013 17:40:52 GMT -8
If it's a large acquisition you're looking for, I'm not sure you'll ever get it. And I mean even a "mere" $10B in a single buy. Doesn't have to be an acquisition. But I am thinking that. More so rights to streaming media (live sports PLEASE) and mobile payment infrastructure. I'd be elated if that's where the cash went.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2013 18:14:21 GMT -8
Doesn't have to be an acquisition. But I am thinking that. More so rights to streaming media (live sports PLEASE) and mobile payment infrastructure. I'd be elated if that's where the cash went. Use the cash to get rights to live sports streaming. hmm, now there's an idea, but how do you propose to get that from ESPN, without paying so much that you lose no matter what you do? Just because you have the cash to make someone filthy rich doesn't make the deal a good one. I have my thoughts, based on current and under development Apple technology, that will revolutionize the credit card industry. But a service that involves handling customer monies has to be perfect on the day of launch. I'm not looking for it until 2014, at the earliest, and will happily wait for it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 21, 2013 19:00:26 GMT -8
Ah, the tremendous potential of mobile payments...
Pay wirelessly with a fingerprint when running iPay or after receiving a push notification, with ultra-secure auto-detect Wi-Fi/lo-power BT 4.0 subbing for NFC...
Man, and I thought the iPad was ambitious. It's easy to dream up these elegantly simple transactions, but the implementation could well be a friggin' nightmare. You currently have NFC, with its range and security issues (aka Wave 'N PrayPay, in more than one sense). Sure, every smartphone has a 'Net connection in place of NFC, but you'd want to use local-area for the most part for everyday purchases. Is NFC something Apple can bridge with newer-generation technologies? Do I really have to point my iPhone at sensors? And I don't see Apple just slapping on NFC, updating Passbook (never mind those rumors about the "scattered" team) and calling it a day.
The very first step is built-in biometric identification for making online purchases easier. Still quite a ways to go after that...and who knows if iPhone 5S will even _have_ that? (I'd have to guess it will, but integrating new technology on the iPhone platform probably isn't a walk in the park.)
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