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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 15:19:37 GMT -8
Ok here is what I got wrong. The 200 basis points in margin took .70 from eps. The lower Average iPhone price also cost me $1.2 billion in revenue and the 300K less Macs cost $400 billion in revenue. 1.6 billion + 43.6 = 45.2 Add an extra 400 million in Mini and we would have been on the mark. So in other words, if you weren't completely wrong (on a conservative estimate, mind you) you would have been right. Good work, you should be proud of your stellar analysis. Do you want a cookie? LOL You are more upset at my numbers then me.  Just wanted to show my mistakes that's all. You may want to take a nice long walk and take hedge with you.  |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 15:25:22 GMT -8
For those of you saying that the stock should be doing better over the next few days / week. What is the rationale? I think (WAG) that the stock needs to seek a level that it can hold....and I haven't seen it yet. Drifting and staying below $400 for an extended period of time is not an impossibility and if there are lack of bids, quite probable. So I don't see what the rush is - not mine - not any institution - to deploy more cash to this position just yet. But feel free to explain what you may be seeing that I might be missing. Thanks!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 23, 2013 15:27:32 GMT -8
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Post by rmhe1999 on Apr 23, 2013 15:29:31 GMT -8
For those of you saying that the stock should be doing better over the next few days / week. What is the rationale? I think (WAG) that the stock needs to seek a level that it can hold....and I haven't seen it yet. Drifting and staying below $400 for an extended period of time is not an impossibility and if there are lack of bids, quite probable. So I don't see what the rush is - not mine - not any institution - to deploy more cash to this position just yet. But feel free to explain what you may be seeing that I might be missing. Thanks! Phoebear: I could be speaking out my rear, but the stock market is obviously forward looking. Many times, it does the unexpected. I wonder if the big boys will begin positioning themselves early for the second half of the year sooner rather than later simply because not many will be expecting them to do so. You ask the obvious question, why now? I'd say because everyone expects a move later in the year; so position now way ahead of the rest of the pack. |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 15:32:28 GMT -8
For those of you saying that the stock should be doing better over the next few days / week. What is the rationale? I think (WAG) that the stock needs to seek a level that it can hold....and I haven't seen it yet. Drifting and staying below $400 for an extended period of time is not an impossibility and if there are lack of bids, quite probable. So I don't see what the rush is - not mine - not any institution - to deploy more cash to this position just yet. But feel free to explain what you may be seeing that I might be missing. Thanks! Phoebear: I could be speaking out my rear, but the stock market is obviously forward looking. Many times, it does the unexpected. I wonder if the big boys will begin positioning themselves early for the second half of the year sooner rather than later simply because not many will be expecting them to do so. You ask the obvious question, why now? I'd say because everyone expects a move later in the year; so position now way ahead of the rest of the pack. Often the institutions and hedge funds sell in may and go away -- I'm not suggesting to wait till fall but one could easily wait till June earnings. No rush on my part (I am still long some so no need to add just yet)....because I think I can buy at lower prices. |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 23, 2013 15:40:08 GMT -8
Sub 390 or 420+ thats where we will be tomorrow all depandant on TC and guidance. I won't be shocked if we trade flat. The expectations for movement after earnings remind me a lot of October, where Goldman was basically saying buy straddles because the movement is going to be huge. Ended up closing the day down less than 1%. Nailed it. Expecting to be around flat at the end of tomorrow. |
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 23, 2013 15:46:41 GMT -8
The bull case is weak right now. I know because I was one of the biggest bulls around, still preaching to anyone who would listen that AAPL is a screaming buy at these levels, and I feel a bit hopeless after this report.
I was hoping for an upside surprise a la Deagol ($11), and we got a middling meet. Right now, the biggest thing in the bull's favor is the rock-bottom low valuation. But if earnings continue to contract, the PE will correct itself without much share price increase.
I am happy they focused on buyback instead of dividend, but I have long thought that the cash return stuff was a sideshow, and the only thing that is important for share price is belief in future earnings growth.
I don't think this report did anything to make investors believe in future earnings growth. The AH reaction seems to have been initial excitement at the cash return plans, followed by a slow realization that earnings growth is unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Like Phoebear, I don't see any signs that WS will believe in future earnings growth in the near term. So, while anything's possible, it seems like the most likely outcome is more sideways. Let's say 360-460, until a new product launch is imminent. New products get people excited, but let's be honest -- the best phone ever (5) and coolest portable computing device ever (ipad mini) simply got us back to earnings levels of the previous year. Revenue growth, decent. But no earnings growth. Will this fall's products lead to the same static earnings picture? I hope not, and I think not, but it's possible.
So even new products that Apple releases could be in a show-me purgatory until their ability to grow earnings is proven.
Because I was one of the last bulls standing, I had been holding all my Jan 14s. Now I fear we could still be under 500 come January. Pretty ridiculous year.
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 15:47:52 GMT -8
I think WS smells blood after selling the stock and forcing a bigger buyback then originally planned. Now they will bitch about a bigger dividend the. Just 15% increase that they got.
One part that concerns me is that Apple really has no big plans for their cash pile other then making it slowly bigger over the next 5 years.
The one positive about the buyback is that it will really create a floor in the stock at $400 regardless of what the numbers are next quarter.
The challenge is moving the stock over 550 after Oct.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 15:51:00 GMT -8
So I don't see what the rush is - not mine - not any institution - to deploy more cash to this position just yet. I think the institutions are going into accumulate mode as a result, not of earnings, or even guidance, but of the implied 2nd half story. At one point TC mentioned "fall" schedule for updates. This will allow the institutions to accumulate on a gradual basis so as not to pressure AAPL upward right away. I'm going to start looking further out (and in greater numbers), than I have been, starting in June. Until then I'm going to nibble. |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 15:55:35 GMT -8
From Seeking Alpha - David Einhorn made a comment re: AAPL this evening:
"We applaud Apple's decision to borrow money and return excess capital to shareholders, an idea that was off the table only months ago. This positive development represents a more shareholder friendly capital allocation policy and demonstrates the conviction of Apple's management and board in the Company's future."
I guess he's feeling somewhat responsible is my assumption.
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Post by bud777 on Apr 23, 2013 15:57:16 GMT -8
I'm right back out on the ledge again.
15 year fixed mortgages are available for 2.5% Apple is paying 3%. Explain why I would not want to refinance and take $400,000 cash out and buy 1000 shares? I net about $3000 a year in interest the first year and it gets better after that because of amortization.
Does ANYONE believe that Apple will not be above 500 sometime in the next 15 years? Does anyone believe that the dividend will not increase?
If we see an end to easy money and interest rates rise, I am locked into 2.5% so who cares? If the current situation continues, great. If we see a period of massive deflation and the stock and market tanks, I have 15 years to recover. Really, this started out as a wild hair, but
I am getting more and more serious. The bank seems to be willing to consider it, what am I missing?
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Post by seabiscuit on Apr 23, 2013 16:01:45 GMT -8
I'm right back out on the ledge again. 15 year fixed mortgages are available for 2.5% Apple is paying 3%. Explain why I would not want to refinance and take $400,000 cash out and buy 1000 shares? I net about $3000 a year in interest the first year and it gets better after that because of amortization. Does ANYONE believe that Apple will not be above 500 sometime in the next 15 years? Does anyone believe that the dividend will not increase? If we see an end to easy money and interest rates rise, I am locked into 2.5% so who cares? If the current situation continues, great. If we see a period of massive deflation and the stock and market tanks, I have 15 years to recover. Really, this started out as a wild hair, but I am getting more and more serious. The bank seems to be willing to consider it, what am I missing? Not worth the trouble or the risk. |
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Post by rmhe1999 on Apr 23, 2013 16:02:03 GMT -8
I'm right back out on the ledge again. 15 year fixed mortgages are available for 2.5% Apple is paying 3%. Explain why I would not want to refinance and take $400,000 cash out and buy 1000 shares? I net about $3000 a year in interest the first year and it gets better after that because of amortization. Does ANYONE believe that Apple will not be above 500 sometime in the next 15 years? Does anyone believe that the dividend will not increase? If we see an end to easy money and interest rates rise, I am locked into 2.5% so who cares? If the current situation continues, great. If we see a period of massive deflation and the stock and market tanks, I have 15 years to recover. Really, this started out as a wild hair, but I am getting more and more serious. The bank seems to be willing to consider it, what am I missing? Taxes on your dividends....? |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 23, 2013 16:02:49 GMT -8
For those of you saying that the stock should be doing better over the next few days / week. What is the rationale? I think (WAG) that the stock needs to seek a level that it can hold....and I haven't seen it yet. Drifting and staying below $400 for an extended period of time is not an impossibility and if there are lack of bids, quite probable. So I don't see what the rush is - not mine - not any institution - to deploy more cash to this position just yet. But feel free to explain what you may be seeing that I might be missing. Thanks! Right on phoebes. IMO there's no need to buy now when we're facing at least another quarter, maybe two, of rough earnings. I would rather buy at 400 on the way up than the way down. |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 23, 2013 16:06:45 GMT -8
The one positive about the buyback is that it will really create a floor in the stock at $400 I bet you're wrong before the week ends. |
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Post by nwjade on Apr 23, 2013 16:18:39 GMT -8
I'm right back out on the ledge again. 15 year fixed mortgages are available for 2.5% Apple is paying 3%. Explain why I would not want to refinance and take $400,000 cash out and buy 1000 shares? I net about $3000 a year in interest the first year and it gets better after that because of amortization. Does ANYONE believe that Apple will not be above 500 sometime in the next 15 years? Does anyone believe that the dividend will not increase? If we see an end to easy money and interest rates rise, I am locked into 2.5% so who cares? If the current situation continues, great. If we see a period of massive deflation and the stock and market tanks, I have 15 years to recover. Really, this started out as a wild hair, but I am getting more and more serious. The bank seems to be willing to consider it, what am I missing? I just retired and I'm rolling my 401K to an IRA to buy more aapl. It won't fund until another week. It's a big chunk of money which will buy approx 1000 shares putting me well over 3000 shares. The divvy and long term appreciation potential make the risk worth taking to me. I like where the price is now for adding more shares while being paid for holding them. Not the same as a mortgage though and I wouldn't do it in my situation but maybe you're a lot younger and the risk works for you? |
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Post by lance on Apr 23, 2013 16:24:04 GMT -8
Apple no new products till fall. Good luck over the next 6 months we will be providing bad earnings and no product catalysts. But we increased the dividend and buy back. This is the sum up on what Tc said. So the question is how does this Impact the stock. To me not much. Earnings are shit. But now there is capital allocation plan. So to me if you looking to make more than a few percent apple isn't looking like a good investment for the next 6 months.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 16:43:26 GMT -8
For those of you saying that the stock should be doing better over the next few days / week. What is the rationale? I think (WAG) that the stock needs to seek a level that it can hold....and I haven't seen it yet. Drifting and staying below $400 for an extended period of time is not an impossibility and if there are lack of bids, quite probable. So I don't see what the rush is - not mine - not any institution - to deploy more cash to this position just yet. But feel free to explain what you may be seeing that I might be missing. Thanks! Phoebear: I could be speaking out my rear, but the stock market is obviously forward looking. Many times, it does the unexpected. I wonder if the big boys will begin positioning themselves early for the second half of the year sooner rather than later simply because not many will be expecting them to do so. You ask the obvious question, why now? I'd say because everyone expects a move later in the year; so position now way ahead of the rest of the pack. This is the most I can muster for optimism. Tim pretty much erased the product pipeline penciled on the summer calendar. So between now and Aug/Sept., we're left with: WWDC, stock repurchase, (starting this month), solid reports of new product (iPhone 5s w/NFC & fingerprint sensor) and what ^ rmhe said. Does this fill the glass half-full? Let's see how AAPL behaves tomorrow. I'm pretty let down by the gross margin -- that would have put us into orbit. The slack GM probably had more to do with transitioning out of Samsung's universe than it did to any iPad mini mix. I don't know if the green AH turned red from Tim and Peter's performance or from the IDIOTS on CNBC. Both? |
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 23, 2013 16:45:41 GMT -8
I'm right back out on the ledge again. 15 year fixed mortgages are available for 2.5% Apple is paying 3%. Explain why I would not want to refinance and take $400,000 cash out and buy 1000 shares? I net about $3000 a year in interest the first year and it gets better after that because of amortization. Does ANYONE believe that Apple will not be above 500 sometime in the next 15 years? Does anyone believe that the dividend will not increase? If we see an end to easy money and interest rates rise, I am locked into 2.5% so who cares? If the current situation continues, great. If we see a period of massive deflation and the stock and market tanks, I have 15 years to recover. Really, this started out as a wild hair, but I am getting more and more serious. The bank seems to be willing to consider it, what am I missing? Not worth the trouble or the risk. If I were you, I would do it. BUT, I don't think any member of Apple management or BOD would do it. Apple is not going to use their own money to buy back stock AGGRESSIVELY THIS year. Apple is going to use Future CASH FLOW to pay for Future buybacks. |
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Post by montegn on Apr 23, 2013 16:46:10 GMT -8
Sponge, I'd like the floor to be 400. Under 400 bothers me. Folks more knowledgeable than I see 350/ 320 as a possible floor. How did you ascertain 400? No, I'm not from Missouri (the "show me" state). Just askin'. Thank you
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Post by appledoc on Apr 23, 2013 16:50:15 GMT -8
So 4 million shares total have been retired since the buyback began.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 17:01:16 GMT -8
The share buy back over the lengthy period of time will not make a dent in stock price whatsoever. It will, in years to come, help EPS but we are years out. By the way - NO CORPORATE - buys their company stock back aggressively. As a matter of fact if I am not mistaken - I don't believe they are able to buy it on a plus tick in the market place - has to be a minus or a zero (it's been a while - not positive my memory serves me right on the rules). So I guess it can help in stabilizing the stock at times....but it won't make a difference because it's spread out over such a lengthy period of time.
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Post by fas550 on Apr 23, 2013 17:08:10 GMT -8
The bull case is weak right now. I know because I was one of the biggest bulls around, still preaching to anyone who would listen that AAPL is a screaming buy at these levels, and I feel a bit hopeless after this report. I was hoping for an upside surprise a la Deagol ($11), and we got a middling meet. Right now, the biggest thing in the bull's favor is the rock-bottom low valuation. But if earnings continue to contract, the PE will correct itself without much share price increase. I am happy they focused on buyback instead of dividend, but I have long thought that the cash return stuff was a sideshow, and the only thing that is important for share price is belief in future earnings growth. I don't think this report did anything to make investors believe in future earnings growth. The AH reaction seems to have been initial excitement at the cash return plans, followed by a slow realization that earnings growth is unlikely in the foreseeable future. Like Phoebear, I don't see any signs that WS will believe in future earnings growth in the near term. So, while anything's possible, it seems like the most likely outcome is more sideways. Let's say 360-460, until a new product launch is imminent. New products get people excited, but let's be honest -- the best phone ever (5) and coolest portable computing device ever (ipad mini) simply got us back to earnings levels of the previous year. Revenue growth, decent. But no earnings growth. Will this fall's products lead to the same static earnings picture? I hope not, and I think not, but it's possible. So even new products that Apple releases could be in a show-me purgatory until their ability to grow earnings is proven. Because I was one of the last bulls standing, I had been holding all my Jan 14s. Now I fear we could still be under 500 come January. Pretty ridiculous year. +100 level headed post. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 17:20:53 GMT -8
Well, no, it's not like Apple the company is failing, but the theme is now "trust us". WS will decide short-term whether to give AAPL an AMZN-like benefit of the doubt until new product (categories?) arrive. There's lots of whipsawing action in AH right now. I gotta say the action's pretty wild, even for an illiquid, volatile secondary market in a post-earnings session. Frankly, I think this is all a very decided net positive. The uncertainty factor has been pretty much eliminated. We know the dividend and share buyback policies now...once a year for Divvy increase and 100 billion (net of divvy) for other returns to shareholders. We know that guidance is what Oppy says it is. Fine. We know June will be weak...but still highly profitable by any other measure. No five inch phone until technology supports it...maybe then. Software will be a continuous improving story and the ecosystem grows like Toppsy. Asia is great....elsewhere....slowish. Beginning in June/July the story shifts. New catagories of products, better existing product lines.... I think the stock begins to do better this week...and I think with Oppy buying for the Treasury stock fund as he sees fit the floor continues to build. I don't think we drift...more than a few days....if that. Excellent post Red. I've put together some preliminary numbers, based entirely on guidance/results ratios since last July's results. This is what I'm getting: Revenue: $35.200 Billion. Up slightly ~$150,000,000. GM%: Flat at 37.50% OpEx: $3.900 Billion OI&E: $370 Million Tax Rate: 26.25% SHARE COUNT (estimated): 943,000,000Resulting in EPS: $7.70 On the surface this looks bad, but the reality is that it is not. Market share numbers from multiple sources show iPhone and iPad growing share. The reduced numbers are the result of Apple reducing ASP on iPhones and iPads by introduction of prior year models at steep discounts to original pricing and smaller iPad form factor. The result of these two moves have reduced ASPs (from September quarter) as follows: iPhone: From $636.xx to $613.xx iPad: From $535.xx to $449.xx. These moves have reduced the price umbrella, that Apple controls, on manufacturers struggling to remain profitable. Not only did Apple reduce their profitability, but Apple also reduced their unit sales. Sounds like a left jab followed by a right cross to me. The reduction in ASP contributed greatly in my revenue miss. It was far greater than I estimated. My miss on GM% was driven by the lower ASPs (one miss fed the other). I think these moves by Apple are driving Samsung's smear campaign (I think it is real, Samsung's mobility division is hurting). Now, if the mobile market/economy could support September quarter ASPs, Apple would handily beat FQ3/2012 results. The important thing to keep in mind is that, this is not an Apple problem. To the contrary, it is a problem for all other copycat manufacturers. They are losing share despite lower prices, and have no where to go with even lower prices (iPhone 4 and 4S both outsold Galaxy IIIS after iPhone 5 launch). |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 17:26:45 GMT -8
First day of Fall is September 22, 2013. That's a long stretch without new products.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 23, 2013 17:27:32 GMT -8
Revenue: $35.200 Billion. Up slightly ~$150,000,000. GM%: Flat at 37.50% OpEx: $3.900 Billion OI&E: $370 Million Tax Rate: 26.25% SHARE COUNT (estimated): 940,000,000Resulting in EPS: $7.20 So you're estimating that they will buy back 6 million shares plus the RSUs in this quarter? |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 17:28:27 GMT -8
The share buy back over the lengthy period of time will not make a dent in stock price whatsoever. It will, in years to come, help EPS but we are years out. By the way - NO CORPORATE - buys their company stock back aggressively. As a matter of fact if I am not mistaken - I don't believe they are able to buy it on a plus tick in the market place - has to be a minus or a zero (it's been a while - not positive my memory serves me right on the rules). So I guess it can help in stabilizing the stock at times....but it won't make a difference because it's spread out over such a lengthy period of time. Apple is going to use $60 Billion to buy back between now and end of calendar year 2015. That's (spread out evenly) ~$1.8 Billion per quarter, or at $500/share about 3.6 million shares. That's a lot, especially over such an extended time frame. Still, I have never thought Apple was buying to reduce share count as much as it was to reduce share creep. |
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 23, 2013 17:30:56 GMT -8
By my count, that would be a 29% y-o-y reduction in earnings. And this quarter was a 18% reduction in earnings.
So what PE is fair for a company that has a -20% growth rate?
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 17:36:39 GMT -8
The share buy back over the lengthy period of time will not make a dent in stock price whatsoever. It will, in years to come, help EPS but we are years out. By the way - NO CORPORATE - buys their company stock back aggressively. As a matter of fact if I am not mistaken - I don't believe they are able to buy it on a plus tick in the market place - has to be a minus or a zero (it's been a while - not positive my memory serves me right on the rules). So I guess it can help in stabilizing the stock at times....but it won't make a difference because it's spread out over such a lengthy period of time. Apple is going to use $60 Billion to buy back between now and end of calendar year 2015. That's (spread out evenly) ~$1.8 Billion per quarter, or at $500/share about 3.6 million shares. That's a lot, especially over such an extended time frame. Still, I have never thought Apple was buying to reduce share count as much as it was to reduce share creep. 3.6 million shares per quarter - if we assume 20 business days a month - is approximately 60k per day. It will not make a dent in share price for sure. It's just not aggressive enough. Won't even put floor on stock IMHO. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 17:58:34 GMT -8
Apple is going to use $60 Billion to buy back between now and end of calendar year 2015. That's (spread out evenly) ~$1.8 Billion per quarter, or at $500/share about 3.6 million shares. That's a lot, especially over such an extended time frame. Still, I have never thought Apple was buying to reduce share count as much as it was to reduce share creep. 3.6 million shares per quarter - if we assume 20 business days a month - is approximately 60k per day. It will not make a dent in share price for sure. It's just not aggressive enough. Won't even put floor on stock IMHO. I think your expectations might have been a little of line if you think a $60B buyback over 2.5 years is not aggressive enough. While I would have liked it to be larger, it's actually larger than I thought Apple would make it. |
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