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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 13:50:01 GMT -8
We may end up under 400 by end of the week with this action.
WS wants eps growth. Until then we are going no where.
Will need to change my signature. But never more confident about long term future.
2016 is the big year.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 13:52:47 GMT -8
Sounds like the 5" phone won't come if the trade offs exist on poorer quality (but doesn't sound like he ruled it out completely). ~ TC
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Post by tuffett on Apr 23, 2013 14:02:04 GMT -8
We may end up under 400 by end of the week with this action. WS wants eps growth. Until then we are going no where. Will need to change my signature. But never more confident about long term future. 2016 is the big year. What a farce. How did your conservative $45B+ and not seeing a big change in dividend/buyback work out for you? I guess I just don't get the stock right? |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 14:03:53 GMT -8
Hey - dd anyone catch what he (TC) was talking about when he said that it is "in its infancy stages"....was he talking about a product?
(Doorbell rang and 3 dogs started to bark and I missed it!)
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Post by vikesfaniv on Apr 23, 2013 14:08:02 GMT -8
Actually they beat guidance by 600 million. With enough supply of iPad Mini and iMacs they could have gotten an extra 2 billion. I would not surprised to hear they were short on iPHones as well again. Nope. In supply balance with all product categories. |
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Post by appledoc on Apr 23, 2013 14:10:36 GMT -8
Gosh, who were two of the three analysts most off on their EPS estimates? Sponge (11.28) and Gregg (11.50)! Only topped by Hendi Susanto, who calls himself a professional.
I already emailed PED requesting that he not publish your estimates for Q3. Your "fun" isn't helping share price.
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Post by macwire on Apr 23, 2013 14:12:00 GMT -8
Red.
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Post by fas550 on Apr 23, 2013 14:12:20 GMT -8
I am happy about the cash allocation. Timing could have been better but a least they are giving some back to support value and in the hands of the shareholders. There is STILL PLENTY of CASH to DO virtually ANYTHING ELSE they want to do.
The device numbers are good and demonstrate competition is not in fact taking over rapidly. A China mobile deal would be key or some other emerging market. Also NTT in Japan would be good.
This is a bit of a key moment as ANY OTHER QTR with such RESULTS would have BEEN PERCEIVED AS DISASTER. This is a definite change in expectations. Although AH is not a reliable gauge, so far so good.
We may go sub 400 in sometime in the next 3 months but that's expected. I think the perception is if it hits mid 300s it's one hell of a buy. Before today the bottom could have been anywhere, now IMHO somewhere between 350-400 as in 12 months the stock will be at least 100 above (and probably more). Along with the cash management its compelling to value and growth investors.
Only real risk is products obviously.
Just my .02 so believe what you like obviously.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 23, 2013 14:14:23 GMT -8
Hmm.
Well, I can tell you that if $9 really is the analyst consensus expectation for June quarter EPS, it'll be more like $6.75-$7 before long.
"Good thing" Apple threw in the divvy + expanded buyback. Second-half story may be something of an understatement.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 14:14:32 GMT -8
Apple going aggressive on margin ... The transition continues. Is consistent with focussing on Services. Need a bigger market size than the affordability luxury segment of 10-15%. I think someone in Apple needs to explain this new direction or Shamesung would seize the narrative. Steve Jobs, then Tim Cook, have both stated that Apple is a software company. Software, to function and be profitable, requires a hardware platform. I think Apple has started to grab HARDWARE (low margin) share in order to expand its SOFTWARE (high margin) share. Remember, because iOS is not fragmented, software upgrades immediately go out to a larger base than any two Android fragments combined, and this base represents 70+% of the online purchasing mobile base. Also, lower pricing starves competing low margin manufacturers of survival oxygen, although I don't see that as a goal of Apple management. |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 14:14:53 GMT -8
Because I know how big Cramer fans you all are - he just told everyone that without innovation - the better buys are McDonald's and Pepsico - they have good dividends, good buybacks, and they are innovating. AAPL right now offers the "hope of future innovation."
Naturally he cited as an example the new McMuffin (only egg whites/canadian bacon/cheese) under 250 calories!
(Sorry - I burst out laughing - it was amusing)
Here's the problem though as absurd as the comparisons are - chances are MCD and PEP have somewhat of a floor on their stocks....but AAPL languishes and drifts lower. The fall is a LONG time away.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 14:16:41 GMT -8
Remember, because iOS is not fragmented, software upgrades immediately go out to a larger base than any two Android fragments combined, and this base represents 70+% of the online purchasing mobile base. Gregg - that is exactly what TC said on the call. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2013 14:17:56 GMT -8
Way to much to digest in a single setting.
After doing so (over weekend?) I can see WS climbing on board starting Tuesday or Wednesday. This conference call has to rank at the top of the informative scale. Very pleased with it.
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 14:18:11 GMT -8
Gosh, who were two of the three analysts most off on their EPS estimates? Sponge (11.28) and Gregg (11.50)! Only topped by Hendi Susanto, who calls himself a professional. I already emailed PED requesting that he not publish your estimates for Q3. Your "fun" isn't helping share price. LOL I am still amazed how focused you two are on me. I don't affect the stock, but if you think I do I can't stop you from your madness. Like I said, my numbers reflected ample supply which was not there and margin at 39.5. It is costing Apple more the anticipated. So they announced buy back and dividend increase 6 months early. Not a big deal. They went into debt. That surprised me. Other then that we are doing just fine. |
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 23, 2013 14:21:46 GMT -8
Way to much to digest in a single setting. After doing so (over weekend?) I can see WS climbing on board starting Tuesday or Wednesday. This conference call has to rank at the top of the informative scale. Very pleased with it. Gregg - like many/most - I expect the stock to go lower and subsequently in the second half of the year to go higher (due mostly to product announcements). So why do you think that WS will buy now? Why not wait a bit. Doesn't make sense to me. |
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Post by fas550 on Apr 23, 2013 14:27:34 GMT -8
I was unable to listen to the CC. What was said that drove the AH action from +22 to -2?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 23, 2013 14:29:23 GMT -8
Tim Cook and Peter Oppenheimer spoke.
The words really aren't that important.
Also, WS narrative tinfoil theories aside, guidance is pretty damn lousy. You can do the math if you like.
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Post by fas550 on Apr 23, 2013 14:34:04 GMT -8
Thanks Mav. I expected with such a drop it might have been a single metric or item. They must be pretty bad but then again AH is fickle.
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 14:34:53 GMT -8
I was unable to listen to the CC. What was said that drove the AH action from +22 to -2? Hedge and tuffet sold because they were following my estimate.  |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 23, 2013 14:37:00 GMT -8
Well, no, it's not like Apple the company is failing, but the theme is now "trust us".
WS will decide short-term whether to give AAPL an AMZN-like benefit of the doubt until new product (categories?) arrive.
There's lots of whipsawing action in AH right now. I gotta say the action's pretty wild, even for an illiquid, volatile secondary market in a post-earnings session.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 23, 2013 14:39:50 GMT -8
We may end up under 400 by end of the week with this action. WS wants eps growth. Until then we are going no where. What happened to the people saying "WS wants cash return plans. Until we get that, we're going nowhere" ?? Now, ton of cash return and slightly beating analyst estimates = going nowhere or down. |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 23, 2013 14:42:16 GMT -8
I was unable to listen to the CC. What was said that drove the AH action from +22 to -2? Hedge and tuffet sold because they were following my estimate. Well, you did say yesterday that you were "never more sure about your numbers" so.... |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 23, 2013 14:47:43 GMT -8
Well, no, it's not like Apple the company is failing, but the theme is now "trust us". WS will decide short-term whether to give AAPL an AMZN-like benefit of the doubt until new product (categories?) arrive. There's lots of whipsawing action in AH right now. I gotta say the action's pretty wild, even for an illiquid, volatile secondary market in a post-earnings session. Frankly, I think this is all a very decided net positive. The uncertainty factor has been pretty much eliminated. We know the dividend and share buyback policies now...once a year for Divvy increase and 100 billion (net of divvy) for other returns to shareholders. We know that guidance is what Oppy says it is. Fine. We know June will be weak...but still highly profitable by any other measure. No five inch phone until technology supports it...maybe then. Software will be a continuous improving story and the ecosystem grows like Toppsy. Asia is great....elsewhere....slowish. Beginning in June/July the story shifts. New catagories of products, better existing product lines.... I think the stock begins to do better this week...and I think with Oppy buying for the Treasury stock fund as he sees fit the floor continues to build. I don't think we drift...more than a few days....if that. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 14:58:17 GMT -8
Ok here is what I got wrong. The 200 basis points in margin took .70 from eps. The lower Average iPhone price also cost me $1.2 billion in revenue and the 300K less Macs cost $400 billion in revenue.
1.6 billion + 43.6 = 45.2
Add an extra 400 million in Mini and we would have been on the mark.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 23, 2013 14:58:50 GMT -8
Like I said, my numbers reflected ample supply which was not there There you go again. TC distinctly said supply was fine throughout the quarter. |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 23, 2013 15:02:59 GMT -8
Ok here is what I got wrong. The 200 basis points in margin took .70 from eps. The lower Average iPhone price also cost me $1.2 billion in revenue and the 300K less Macs cost $400 billion in revenue. 1.6 billion + 43.6 = 45.2 Add an extra 400 million in Mini and we would have been on the mark. Sponge, with all due respect....almost everybody else missed by less and can make the same statements more easily about making a few adjustments and being "on the mark". I was at $10.45.....almost "on the mark".. Only missed by.....a lot. Now we get to look to 135 million shares being retired over the next 35 months. That new metric may make estimating in 2015/16 easier....or not. |
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mark
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Post by mark on Apr 23, 2013 15:05:14 GMT -8
Sounds like the 5" phone won't come if the trade offs exist on poorer quality (but doesn't sound like he ruled it out completely). ~ TC It sounded like a yes to me. At least a qualified yes. Basically, when they come out with a larger screen iPhone, TC will announce "we overcame the tradeoffs and shipped the best possible product" or something like that. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 15:08:34 GMT -8
Like I said, my numbers reflected ample supply which was not there There you go again. TC distinctly said supply was fine throughout the quarter. Go back and listen to conf call. They ended the 1stquarter with less then planned Mini in the channel. By the end they were in balance. |
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Post by sponge on Apr 23, 2013 15:10:31 GMT -8
Sounds like the 5" phone won't come if the trade offs exist on poorer quality (but doesn't sound like he ruled it out completely). ~ TC It sounded like a yes to me. At least a qualified yes. Basically, when they come out with a larger screen iPhone, TC will announce "we overcame the tradeoffs and shipped the best possible product" or something like that. Like I said. Bigger iPhone for fingerprint scanner next year. They need enough screens for the iPads lines this year. How many times have we heard about a shortage of yields on the screens. |
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Post by tuffett on Apr 23, 2013 15:11:19 GMT -8
Ok here is what I got wrong. The 200 basis points in margin took .70 from eps. The lower Average iPhone price also cost me $1.2 billion in revenue and the 300K less Macs cost $400 billion in revenue. 1.6 billion + 43.6 = 45.2 Add an extra 400 million in Mini and we would have been on the mark. So in other words, if you weren't completely wrong (on a conservative estimate, mind you) you would have been right. Good work, you should be proud of your stellar analysis. Do you want a cookie? |
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