Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 5:47:03 GMT -8
I feel pretty sanguine about today and the rest of the week.
Someone is going to have to tell me if CNBC puts on Colin Gillis, who was clearly upstaged by Apple results (and by other analysts), so he should be singing a more uplifting Apple tune.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 5:50:09 GMT -8
Yea that does look quite real. Love the engineering of the internal shell for shielding etc. I have to do that kind of stuff at my job, and our shell designs for much larger touchpanels are not nearly as awesome as those. Granted our products usually do 10k-20k EAU instead of millions for the iphones, so they likely can spend a lot more to tool up such an intricate design. They didn't have the top, but I'm hopeful they add the chamfer around the display, similar to the mockups we've seen earlier. Stuff a big battery in it and we have a "winna."
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 5:53:43 GMT -8
Yea that does look quite real. Love the engineering of the internal shell for shielding etc. I have to do that kind of stuff at my job, and our shell designs for much larger touchpanels are not nearly as awesome as those. Granted our products usually do 10k-20k EAU instead of millions for the iphones, so they likely can spend a lot more to tool up such an intricate design. They didn't have the top, but I'm hopeful they add the chamfer around the display, similar to the mockups we've seen earlier. Stuff a big battery in it and we have a "winna." Great video....terrific. The guy who posted it goes by DetroitBorg. Normally I don't trust anything to do with the Borg but I'll happily make an exception here. In multiple colors....big hit. Now, price it right!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 6:00:06 GMT -8
Not quite Mercel. Apple went to ranges for a time and they continued sailing over the bar. But I don't regard this "in line with guidance" bit as a huge deal because THIS shift in methodology seems truly different. "For a time...." being the operative phrase AND Peter O's narrative that accompanied using ranges THIS time around. Apple could have easily topped the sales guidance number in June by selling into the channel but chose not to. I think we can agree this isn't worthy of CNBC chatter, serving the "Apple is Doomed" meme. Just to clarify Mercel, this whole topic started yesterday in a response to a suggestion that we shouldn't expect Apple to beat max guidance going forward. My argument was that since Apple has beat it's highest guidance every quarter since 2005 (up until now), then it would be wrong to assume that apple will not beat max guidance in future. So I was pointing out the strong trend of previous revenue guidance beats in a positive Bullish light, with the possibility that the just reported quarter could just be an anomaly, rather than the norm going forward. Rather than trying to add fuel to the "apple is doomed" crowd, I'm much more likely to think of myself in The "apple is set for liftoff" crowd.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 6:10:25 GMT -8
Two idiots on CNBC NOW...IDIOTS. one claims we need a deal with China Unicom.
I swear, if you don't know the difference between Unicom and Mobile....GET OFF THE STAGE,
It's like confusing Romulans and Klingons....for God's sake...these guys get paid to do this !
I need coffee...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 6:13:49 GMT -8
"For a time...." being the operative phrase AND Peter O's narrative that accompanied using ranges THIS time around. Apple could have easily topped the sales guidance number in June by selling into the channel but chose not to. I think we can agree this isn't worthy of CNBC chatter, serving the "Apple is Doomed" meme. Just to clarify Mercel, this whole topic started yesterday in a response to a suggestion that we shouldn't expect Apple to beat max guidance going forward. My argument was that since Apple has beat it's highest guidance every quarter since 2005 (up until now), then it would be wrong to assume that apple will not beat max guidance in future. So I was pointing out the strong trend of previous revenue guidance beats in a positive Bullish light, with the possibility that the just reported quarter could just be an anomaly, rather than the norm going forward. Rather than trying to add fuel to the "apple is doomed" crowd, I'm much more likely to think of myself in The "apple is set for liftoff" crowd. Thanks for the context and clarification. I like the word "liftoff."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 6:18:03 GMT -8
Two idiots on CNBC NOW...IDIOTS. one claims we need a deal with China Unicom. I swear, if you don't know the difference between Unicom and Mobile....GET OFF THE STAGE, It's like confusing Romulans and Klingons....for God's sake...these guys get paid to do this ! I need coffee... And all this time I thought the Romulans were the offspring of Klingons.. ;D But yeah, get their names next time because there's something in the works for holding analysts accountable (and CNBC, etc.).
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 6:19:03 GMT -8
Bounced off 435.40. Solid. Moving in an organized fashion back to 440
Volume muuuuch better today.
This is how positive price action forms
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 24, 2013 6:38:37 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 6:41:40 GMT -8
Numerous posters on other boards rallying to the idea that Apple retired 33 million shares , not the 22 million noted early yesterday. Very aggressive....very positive.
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Post by mace on Jul 24, 2013 6:46:32 GMT -8
AAPL is now above ichimoku cloud (daily chart) and the resistance $422.32. Next would be $457.10.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 24, 2013 6:46:54 GMT -8
We climb to 444.
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Post by rob_london on Jul 24, 2013 6:48:21 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 6:50:38 GMT -8
I have my Pom Poms out and will wait for the official Whhheeeeeeeeeeeeee signal from Lovey.
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Post by rob_london on Jul 24, 2013 7:14:40 GMT -8
I have my Pom Poms out and will wait for the official Whhheeeeeeeeeeeeee signal from Lovey. I think it should be reserved until AAPL is north of $600 again Very pleasantly surprised by the price action so far today. I fully expected the gap up to be faded this morning...a pattern that has been repeated on so many occasions during the past 9 months.
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mark
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Post by mark on Jul 24, 2013 7:18:58 GMT -8
I have my Pom Poms out and will wait for the official Whhheeeeeeeeeeeeee signal from Lovey. I think it should be reserved until AAPL is north of $600 again And if that happens before Jan 2014, I might celebrate Thanksgiving twice that year! ;D
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 7:20:39 GMT -8
Numerous posters on other boards rallying to the idea that Apple retired 33 million shares , not the 22 million noted early yesterday. Very aggressive....very positive. Got a reply from Apple IR that confirmed things. YES! The shares are WEIGHTED for the quarter, which is why the Q3 EPS share count won't be reduced by the total amount of shares repurchased in the quarter. In other words, if the shares repurchased occurred on April 1 2013, we would have seen the extra 11M shares removed from the total share count.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 7:33:59 GMT -8
Numerous posters on other boards rallying to the idea that Apple retired 33 million shares , not the 22 million noted early yesterday. Very aggressive....very positive. Got a reply from Apple IR that confirmed things. YES! The shares are WEIGHTED for the quarter, which is why the Q3 EPS share count won't be reduced by the total amount of shares repurchased in the quarter. In other words, if the shares repurchased occurred on April 1 2013, we would have seen the extra 11M shares removed from the total share count. So, Apple is obviously not done here but we can use 33 million fewer shares as our starting point for estimating FURTHER buybacks in Q4. Very aggresive....and when you take this practice into account with Oppy's revenue guidance you can get your EPS estimate up another notch....sweet.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 7:38:01 GMT -8
Got a reply from Apple IR that confirmed things. YES! The shares are WEIGHTED for the quarter, which is why the Q3 EPS share count won't be reduced by the total amount of shares repurchased in the quarter. In other words, if the shares repurchased occurred on April 1 2013, we would have seen the extra 11M shares removed from the total share count. So, Apple is obviously not done here but we can use 33 million fewer shares as our starting point for estimating FURTHER buybacks in Q4. Very aggresive....and when you take this practice into account with Oppy's revenue guidance you can get your EPS estimate up another notch....sweet. Ignoring stock issuance to employees, reduce the 924M shares at June 30 by another 11M shares to start the Sept. quarter. It's possible we see sub 900M shares by the end of the Sept. quarter. I've sent my workup and reply from Apple to PED, who hopefully will report on it after getting corroboration (I'm publicity-shy).
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Post by nagrani on Jul 24, 2013 7:48:10 GMT -8
Awesome. Ichimoku clouds, wave three inside three outside three, golden crosses, bring it all baby.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 7:50:31 GMT -8
It's been too long that I've had to screw with measuring dilutive shares O/S. I'm sure this news will break open sometime later today or tomorrow that will save me the trouble of looking deeper.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jul 24, 2013 7:56:59 GMT -8
Congrats to Gregg re: PED poll. Didn't reach his "in the top 10" goal, but third among independents and just about matching Horace Dedieu is a performance to be proud of.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 24, 2013 7:58:45 GMT -8
Yes. Congrats Gregg.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 8:10:02 GMT -8
Indeed, congrats Gregg. You put a ton of time into your analysis.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 8:26:32 GMT -8
I have my Pom Poms out and will wait for the official Whhheeeeeeeeeeeeee signal from Lovey. I think it should be reserved until AAPL is north of $600 again Very pleasantly surprised by the price action so far today. I fully expected the gap up to be faded this morning...a pattern that has been repeated on so many occasions during the past 9 months. I don't think we're going to get a fade. True it's happened several times during the last 9 months, but you have to look at the sentiment environment between then and now. The best example is AAPL's trading post April earnings. Sentiment changed after that report to the positive. It was the first after PO browbeat WS with the fact that Guidance metrics had changed. After April earnings AAPL gained $50+ over a two week period. Earnings wasn't that strong and Guidance was actually bad. The deal was that Apple performed to Guidance in a very predictable way. Yesterday's report reinforced that Apple's Guidance is something that can be trusted (elimination of uncertainty), and the new Guidance shows the return of growth. While the Sept '12 to April '13 period was a falling knife, April '13 to July '13 went sideways (a definite improvement). With the return of trusted Guidance, and Guidance indicating growth I think AAPL is going to trade upward from these depressed levels. That will be partly due to the fall launch of seriously updated products (iOS 7) and the looming December quarter, but mostly because WS now trusts Apple's Guidance.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 8:49:16 GMT -8
Although I'm dubious about Miseks work, Jeffries also raising estimates as follows: "The firm raised Q4 EPS from $7.28 to $7.58, FY 2013 EPS from $38.67 to $39.10 and FY 2014 EPS from $36.60 to $38.78." Not spectacular numbers of course, but the fact we have estimates rising is positive of course. My FQ$ EPS estimate is $8.28. That puts F2013 EPS at $39.66. I haven't started on F2014 beyond FQ1 yet, but my sense that it's going to be much higher than Miseks' $38.78. I'm working on it now.
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Post by rickag on Jul 24, 2013 8:50:12 GMT -8
Wow, I just looked at volume (been in a meeting). Over 14 million, do my eyes deceive me?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2013 8:50:47 GMT -8
Although I'm dubious about Miseks work, Jeffries also raising estimates as follows: "The firm raised Q4 EPS from $7.28 to $7.58, FY 2013 EPS from $38.67 to $39.10 and FY 2014 EPS from $36.60 to $38.78." Not spectacular numbers of course, but the fact we have estimates rising is positive of course. If there's even a single quarter of EPS contraction in 2014, let alone the entire year, this will be a long haul. I don't believe for a second that EPS contracts next year. You and I are in total agreement on this.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 24, 2013 8:55:01 GMT -8
here comes the next wave..let's take out 444.50
I would be scared to short this stock...hmmmm
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 24, 2013 9:05:18 GMT -8
So Mercel, Apple is time-weighting its share repurchase?
Apple might buy back considerably more than 50M shares (net reduction) by the end of September, with a few million or so of that total that gets "carried over" to fiscal Q1. Staggering to think about.
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