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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 14:18:03 GMT -8
Apple is going up because new shit is on the horizon and sentiment is turning positive Oh, you mean FUNDAMENTALS. No. Sentiment. There was nothing wrong with AAPL's fundamentals when we crashed. Sentiment is a fickle bitch.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 14:24:07 GMT -8
Oh, you mean FUNDAMENTALS. There was nothing wrong with AAPL's fundamentals when we crashed. Oh yes there was. We just didn't see the change because we were debating processors, low cost iPhones, TA and other diversionary topics (aka "evil overlords"). We were not paying enough attention to Apple's 10Qs, and comparing/charting the information therein with prior periods.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 14:25:24 GMT -8
iPad...did I just make a huge mistake hedging AAPL today? (Luckily, at this point I'm still trading with "gains" for the year.)
Also, whew NFLX. It helped buffer my account against FSLR's surge, IBM (went up) and TBT (went down) surprisingly well, though not entirely. Also, I'm using short-dated calls for NFLX WHY DO I NEVER LEARN
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 14:27:12 GMT -8
I don't believe in TA either. Guys like zaky who have traded on it have lose millions of dollars. People who use it in discussions often hedge TA so they are right either way. If someone believes that TA works - post price predictions and your trades. That's the best scale on its effectiveness. Apple is going up because new shit is on the horizon and sentiment is turning positive nagrani, did you read my philosophical thoughts on technicals recently? And if you all want to have a little fun about no technicals application being useful at my expense (which should be easy, because I'm a kindergarten technicals student)? Check out today's post over at the Tree if you like. I've thrown in my micro thesis so by tomorrow, you'll know if the signs I saw were mirages, or just not that useful. On Zaky: He suffered from overly strong opinions (as did I). Unfortunately, the difference was the type of capital at risk. I've got my own dollars at risk, which is bad enough. Zaky ran a fund. Also, at the risk of exuding tremendous hubris, Zaky may not have been objective enough in his technical reads. I'm trying to be objective to a fault, despite my enduring net positive sentiment for Apple and the stock's absurd valuation and consistent disrespect.
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Post by nagrani on Aug 20, 2013 14:28:05 GMT -8
LOL. I still stand by what I say. Respectfully, of course.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 14:30:32 GMT -8
C'mon nagrani, I need the ego boost, I mean traffic. Give my post a few minutes if you like and we'll see if my micro bearish thesis kinda sorta played out tomorrow. I did try to be very clear with my reasons.
The quick version - my read of the instrumentation I use shows red on two shorter timeframes. My interpretation is, they're pointing to short-term continuation to the downside.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 14:35:37 GMT -8
LOL. I still stand by what I say. Respectfully, of course. N, my post was not at all meant as a reply to you specifically, as the issues are continuous ones.
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Post by nagrani on Aug 20, 2013 14:37:11 GMT -8
Ok. TA says down tomorrow/short term. I say up tomorrow based on sentiment positive stuff happening in market. Lets circle back after market closes tomorrow.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 14:37:52 GMT -8
iPad...did I just make a huge mistake hedging AAPL today? (Luckily, at this point I'm still trading with "gains" for the year.) Daily MACD-h put in the first lower bar today.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 14:38:28 GMT -8
Ok. TA says down tomorrow/short term. I say up tomorrow based on sentiment positive stuff happening in market. Lets circle back after market closes tomorrow. TA does not say anything about tomorrow!!! Only TODAY!!! I can extrapolate from waning momentum (objective), continuation (subjective): down. Someone else can extrapolate from a support level (objective), a second wind (subjective): up. The only thing TA says is: waning momentum and xxx level is support. The next step is all yours. And the "forecast" should be the same every time: break one support/resistance level, target the next. Fail to break, turn around and go the other way. Rinse and repeat.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 14:41:09 GMT -8
Sentiment is a fickle bitch. On a day to day, week to week basis, Sentiment certainly is fickle. But over extended periods Sentiment is driven by fundamentals and the expectation (or lack thereof) of Revenue/Net Income growth. We saw limited Revenue growth with decreasing GMs and Net Income, for the past 4 quarters. This quarter will be the 5th, and last, in that line of weak performances. It is that expectation that has investors like Icahn buying into AAPL today. Icahn may talk about the value of stock buy backs, but his real interest is a return to growth. Whether that comes through a new management team, streamlining operations, or organic emergence from a slump, he doesn't care (although he knows what the cure is before he buys).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 14:42:56 GMT -8
Ok. TA says down tomorrow/short term. I say up tomorrow based on sentiment positive stuff happening in market. Lets circle back after market closes tomorrow. TA does not say anything about tomorrow!!! Only TODAY!!! I can extrapolate from waning momentum (objective), continuation (subjective): down. Someone else can extrapolate from a support level (objective), a second wind (subjective): up. The only thing TA says is: waning momentum and xxx level is support. The next step is all yours. Calm down, iPad. Technicals' last readings were crappy as of market close. You can't trade without conviction, at least not without wildly unpredictable/amusing? consequences. ;D So, those of us who use technicals for trading (remember, I'm still very much a fundamentals guy) have to make a call based on history. The blurred line between leap of faith and educated guess. Sure, "pattern recognition" isn't anywhere near 100% reliable, but hey! Sell/short the weak/weakening and buy the strong/definitively recovering isn't the worst way to approach the market, right?
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Post by nagrani on Aug 20, 2013 14:44:06 GMT -8
iPad. Love u
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 14:45:02 GMT -8
iPad...did I just make a huge mistake hedging AAPL today? (Luckily, at this point I'm still trading with "gains" for the year.) Daily MACD-h put in the first lower bar today. C'mon, AAPL! I want some nachos to go with my lunchtime value burrito tomorrow! And maybe even a medium drink! ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 14:48:18 GMT -8
Sentiment is a fickle bitch. On a day to day, week to week basis, Sentiment certainly is fickle. But over extended periods Sentiment is driven by fundamentals and the expectation (or lack thereof) of Revenue/Net Income growth. We saw limited Revenue growth with decreasing GMs and Net Income, for the past 4 quarters. This quarter will be the 5th, and last, in that line of weak performances. It is that expectation that has investors like Icahn buying into AAPL today. Icahn may talk about the value of stock buy backs, but his real interest is a return to growth. Whether that comes through a new management team, streamlining operations, or organic emergence from a slump, he doesn't care (although he knows what the cure is before he buys). Gregg, I don't purport to know WHY sentiment changes, beyond the pendulum of fear and greed.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 14:51:03 GMT -8
Steve Jobs once said you can only connect the dots looking backwards, or something like that. AAPL should ALWAYS have had a multiple over 20 IMHO as far as fair, objective value, but sentiment overrides all. It is what it is.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 14:52:29 GMT -8
Technicals' last readings were crappy as of market close. You can't trade without conviction, at least not without wildly unpredictable/amusing? consequences. ;D So, those of us who use technicals for trading (remember, I'm still very much a fundamentals guy) have to make a call based on history. The blurred line between leap of faith and educated guess. Sure, "pattern recognition" isn't anywhere near 100% reliable, but hey! Sell/short the weak/weakening and buy the strong/definitively recovering isn't the worst way to approach the market, right? Mav, YOU know how to use your instrument panel. And I am sure you always have some confirmation and invalidation criteria for whatever hypothesis. Before, you used your gut. Now, you have an instrument panel to back up your gut. Short term composure took a dive. Now, we watch to see where it recovers. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 14:53:53 GMT -8
My gut needs something more organic than Rolaids. Know of any not-too-exotic home remedies? I tell you, momoing NFLX "on a lark" "saved" my trading day.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 20, 2013 14:55:09 GMT -8
On Zaky: He suffered from overly strong opinions (as did I). Unfortunately, the difference was the type of capital at risk. I've got my own dollars at risk, which is bad enough. Zaky ran a fund. Also, at the risk of exuding tremendous hubris, Zaky may not have been objective enough in his technical reads. I'm trying to be objective to a fault, despite my enduring net positive sentiment for Apple and the stock's absurd valuation and consistent disrespect. Zaky was at the top of his form forecasting Apple's earnings. He confused that with forecasting price targets, and like myself, did not see the change in Apple's fundamentals, attributing AAPL's downdraft to the likes of CNBC talking heads, Doug Kass, et al. We both used Apple's fundamentals to forecast earnings. Neither of us used Apple's fundamentals to identify looming problems. Kass was correct, but we labeled him an ass (because of his demeanor), focusing on Kass instead of his message. There is a lot of that still happening on the boards. If we aren't careful messengers will become an endangered species. Fundamentals. Fundamentals. Fundamentals. Fundamentals.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 14:58:45 GMT -8
Was Zaky any more accurate than the rest of us home gamers when growth and revenue slowed? I can't remember.
I don't hate Zaky and I feel bad about his fund situation, but there's a heuristic that has actually served me decently well over the years - always watch out for people with opinions that are too strong. I've been guilty of that myself, and I "proudly" own my mistakes, hopefully to learn from and not repeat them.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 15:00:14 GMT -8
I do have confirmation/invalidation criteria, iPad!
Confirmation: My trade's going green! WOOHOO!
Invalidation: My trade's going red! OMG PANIC WHAT NOW
Add in me being a more active trader, and you get a small sense of the hilarity that ensues many trading days. ;D
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Post by Lstream on Aug 20, 2013 15:00:34 GMT -8
Absolutely everyone who reads this board should know this: TA DOES NOT PREDICT!!! TA is informative, not predictive. Got it? IMHO, people who cite it and don't "hedge their bets" with some if/then criteria are just making wild ass guesses because NO ONE knows for sure what happens next. Be highly suspect of anyone who presents any forecast based on TA as a definitive gonna happen, as there are NO guarantees. What you do with the information TA provides (given you know how to read the instrument panel) is subjective. For example, Andy Zaky kept expecting imminent reversals (down AND up) when, in fact, oscillators will embed during particularly strong trends. Divergences can go on and on and on with a particularly strong trend. So, saying someone lost money because of TA is plain wrong. Charts don't lie or make excuses; they tell it like it is, and that landscape can change any time, with or without notice. If you don't see any value in TA and/or don't want to use it, no problemo. Don't. But please, PLEASE stop spreading misinformation ON THIS BOARD about what it is and what it is not. If you don't know, and you don't want to know, then kindly STFU. Well then, in some ways TA is predictive. Bash it, and I predict iPad will kick our ass again.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 15:01:12 GMT -8
ROFLMAO!!! (That is for both Mav and LStream!)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 15:05:28 GMT -8
Lstream, you're not itching for a fight with iPad, right? Isn't your beef with Northern Dakota?
First principles. Technicals themselves IS NOT PREDICTIVE. Anyone who says otherwise is LYING or inaccurate.
Second principles. The most honest technical analysis practitioners use their own mix of favorite indicators and GUESS WHAT'LL HAPPEN NEXT. The technicals don't guess, the trader does. It's the same with any trade. The difference is that technicals practitioners use different ways of looking at the markets (averages, trendlines, derivatives of price action etc.) to try and arrive at an educated guess based on interpretation of the gauges and headings and dials. Again, anyone who says the gauges and headings and dials themselves predict is a LIAR or just plain wrong.
That's all it is, and why technical traders like iPad get annoyed when technicals gets equated to being a predictive system. The predictive system is the traders' own guess on what'll happen next. We can all debate market edge, but there IS NO scientific method to the stock market. If there was we'd all be millionaires by now. Well those of us who figured the scientific method out anyway.
(EW and predictions, that's a totally different story.)
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Post by rickag on Aug 20, 2013 15:18:34 GMT -8
Ok. TA says down tomorrow/short term. I say up tomorrow based on sentiment positive stuff happening in market. Lets circle back after market closes tomorrow. Respectfully, no. TA does not say down tomorrow. TA is not predictive. TA gives past trends and levels. A tool if you will to plan your strategy and potentially hedge. One day I hope to understand better. For example, the trend was up when I bought @ 500.81 and again @ 511.25. As a hedge in case the trend failed I cost averaged and place a stop limit @ 507.25 to salvage a little. The trend was up until it wasn't, it was past history not predictive. Someone more eloquent than me can better explain tha this senile old fool called rickag. Edit: I forgot to add that with the potential for 2 iPhones being introduced I believe the macro trend is indeed up hence my trades above. I also bought @ 434.60 and 442.94, I planned on holding, there is this micro downtrend so I upped my stop limit to 500 today. Tomorrow is another day of decisions.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 15:24:34 GMT -8
Thinking about it a little more, maybe it's the "analysis" part of technicals analysis that leads to misunderstandings. Since analysis necessarily leads to making a judgment call (read: prediction).
Separating the art from the instruments themselves would hopefully clear things up a bit. Eh, tired of typing about this, I just wanna get some trades right tomorrow.
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Post by lovemyipad on Aug 20, 2013 15:31:56 GMT -8
rickag: GOLD STAR!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 20, 2013 15:36:10 GMT -8
If you're holding common from say 450 and below? And you're more buying and holding? Non-advice, but about the current volatility...
FUGGEDABOUTIT (/Brooklyn accent?)
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Post by appledoc on Aug 20, 2013 15:56:57 GMT -8
I don't believe in TA either. Guys like zaky who have traded on it have lose millions of dollars. People who use it in discussions often hedge TA so they are right either way. If someone believes that TA works - post price predictions and your trades. That's the best scale on its effectiveness. Apple is going up because new shit is on the horizon and sentiment is turning positive I post all of my trades. I post all of my predictions. I've been saying for weeks that once we got above 465 we'd see 484 then 514 quickly. That's EXACTLY what happened. I said last week and all weekend that we'd close the gap to 514 and then retrace. I was off by less than 1.5 points. Now I'm saying retrace to upper 470s/low 490s. You can choose if you want to believe that or not.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 20, 2013 15:58:44 GMT -8
If anyone thinks AAPL was in single digit P/E, and is trading right now at half the P/E of Google because of fundamentals, please hand me the crack pipe.
Anyone who could foresee the few quarters of negative growth would also know that in all likelihood growth would quickly turn positive again in 2014. Sentiment is not solely based on fundamentals, or plenty of other companies would have tanked far harder than AAPL based on their "fundamentals".
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