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Post by tuffett on Sept 10, 2013 15:29:14 GMT -8
The "no I don't" was a response to your last question about if I want Apple to become a profitless pile of doodoo. I read your link, don't worry.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 10, 2013 15:53:10 GMT -8
I had to work through all the excitement today but if the seminar I was at is any indication, there will be a lot of 5s sales coming soon....
The lack of presales hints at supply constraints but guarantees long lines on the 20th.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2013 15:57:09 GMT -8
Im not saying this in a bad way, but the 5C pricing indicates to me that the iPhone in many markets is addicted to carrier subsidies crack.
Introduced at $550 wholesale, the iPhone 5C is a "new" device that will still receive the maximum $450 US carrier subsidy for 2 years.
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Post by Iceage on Sept 10, 2013 16:11:41 GMT -8
I had to work through all the excitement today but if the seminar I was at is any indication, there will be a lot of 5s sales coming soon.... The lack of presales hints at supply constraints but guarantees long lines on the 20th. Well, my first reaction was I wasn't upgrading my 5 to the 5S. Actually, I had the same reaction for the 4 to 4S. Watched the video on the 5S, read a few reviews, ... I will do the upgrade. I showed my wife the 5C video and she loves the colors and the fact it's in plastic. She'll probably upgrade her 4S. Hr reaction was the 5C will be extremely popular with women and teenagers. I'm using the ios 7 GM right now and it's ready to go. From a personal point of view, I love it. Lots of new wallpapers and ringtones! My iPhone 5 feels like a new phone! As for the reaction today, it's quite overblown. If Apple would have priced the 5C lower, there would have been concerns about the margins and the sell off would still have happened. Apple will sell everything they can make for the next little while anyway.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 10, 2013 16:13:29 GMT -8
I had to work through all the excitement today but if the seminar I was at is any indication, there will be a lot of 5s sales coming soon.... The lack of presales hints at supply constraints but guarantees long lines on the 20th. AAPL could be in for a short-term hit, due to iPhone 5S supply constaints. Note how Apple spoke in terms of the newest iPhone last year: www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/09/24iPhone-5-First-Weekend-Sales-Top-Five-Million.htmlOh well, with any trade comes risk. Depending on tomorrow I may scale things down some because of this one particular checkpoint.
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Post by osx10 on Sept 10, 2013 16:13:35 GMT -8
Is there a link floating around to somebody in China covering the event there (in English)?
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Post by Iceage on Sept 10, 2013 16:18:48 GMT -8
I had to work through all the excitement today but if the seminar I was at is any indication, there will be a lot of 5s sales coming soon.... The lack of presales hints at supply constraints but guarantees long lines on the 20th. AAPL could be in for a short-term hit, due to iPhone 5S supply constaints. Note how Apple spoke in terms of the newest iPhone last year: www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/09/24iPhone-5-First-Weekend-Sales-Top-Five-Million.htmlOh well, with any trade comes risk. Depending on tomorrow I may scale things down some because of this one particular checkpoint. Constraints on the iPhone 5S but the 5C will be very popular plus China from the start should make up for it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 10, 2013 16:27:00 GMT -8
I'm thinking like a pessimist (for trading purposes). People will focus on iPhone 5S, and Apple, "ignorant" as it is, will give out (1) initial iPhone 5C+5S sales combined, (2) total initial iPhone sales, or not give out any iPhone initial sales data at all. All scenarios will be questioned to death, and Apple could easily be lambasted for the old supply chain/production ramp difficulties canard for the 5S.
China Mobile is the most effective antidote, but we might not see that for some weeks yet.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2013 16:33:15 GMT -8
The 5c is available for preorder this Friday and delivery on the 20th. The 5s can be preordered on the 20th with no delivery date yet published.
Edited: The 5c and 5s can both be purchased Sept. 20th but the latter can't be preordered before then. Interesting.
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Post by Iceage on Sept 10, 2013 16:37:34 GMT -8
The 5c is available for preorder this Friday and delivery on the 20th. The 5s can be preordered on the 20th with no delivery date yet published. Edited: The 5c and 5s can both be purchased Sept. 20th but the latter can't be preordered before then. Interesting. The 5s is available on the 20th at Apple retail stores and for on-line orders. No pre-orders.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 10, 2013 16:42:20 GMT -8
Like I said - potential numbers, or perception problem. Maybe not so much numbers by adding China as a launch partner, but this ridiculous notion that Apple can never make enough of the newest iPhone won't go away (the only time people stopped worrying about this was the 4S in recent memory). They usually fix the supply problem within 2-3 months; no one cares.
That is the danger for AAPL bulls, but we know what we're getting into.
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Post by Iceage on Sept 10, 2013 16:53:09 GMT -8
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 10, 2013 16:53:10 GMT -8
While the two products are nice, and while iOS7 is awesome, overall it ain't much.
Apple has plenty of good engineers (and some great ones too), and there is no way that all their engineers were working on these two products. Combine that fact with Tim Cooks statement during previous earnings calls about "... fall and continuing into 2014 ...", and the statement "... new product categories ...", I fully expect more product announcements sooner rather than later. Any idea of upcoming events or hints to the timing of such events?
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Post by zzmac on Sept 10, 2013 17:01:20 GMT -8
Isn't the 5C a better phone than the 5? What can be the difference in cost between the current cover and a cool looking (by the way) plastic one??? $5 per phone? Ok the cover cost $5 less so let's reduce the price of the phone another $100 to keep everyone happy. There's a lot of nonsense going on. I think Apple knows what they're doing. Thought that was interesting too.... Not too sure what Apple's game plan is with the 5C at that price... other than padding GM..... That's my problem with it too... it feels like a money-grab because it feels like a cheaper product than the iphone 5, and its being sold for the same price. Ok, so that might be "good for margins" for the company, but not if they turn off customers. I really don't understand why someone would want to buy one of those instead of a 5s or a refurb 5 if they can find one.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 10, 2013 17:11:25 GMT -8
Why would Apple concede margin when it will sell all it can make for the next two quarters, particularly if DoCoMo and CM are both added? Apple doesn't have to chase the bottom like the Winblows phones nor the Androids. When Apple is done selling all it can to approx. 850M new subscribers, then it starts to make more sense to focus more on pricing. But $299? Apple is a premium brand. Do you see Porsche facing similar doom and gloom arguments, in effect pooh-poohing Porsche because it doesn't make a $25,000 911 Mercel, all of the advocates for a cheaper/lower cost iPhone were dismissed today by no less than Apple itself. Continuing to argue with the likes of Tuffet or Vitalogy on this subject just clogs the forum and flattens that portion of your forehead that is beating a wall of ignorance. Rational arguments like selling everything that can be produced, at a premium price, means nothing to the intellectually challenged. I'd be surprised if there was a high school diploma between them, certainly there is zero business management experience or expertise (outside of a lawn care business). Bait taken. Can't help it. Masters degree here. No real business experience but I do know what a buyback is and it took me about a minute to grasp the concept back when I was just getting that high school diploma. I have also not completely and utterly embarrassed myself by publicizing piss-poor estimates that had absolute zero grounding in reality, despite warnings from people on this board including the ones you denigrate. I can't find an entry point between OI and Thurman Reversals...must be doing something wrong. BTW, Mercel, you do make some good points. We'll see if this price can be maintained past the initial mania.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 10, 2013 17:14:43 GMT -8
While the two products are nice, and while iOS7 is awesome, overall it ain't much. Just 50% of Apple's revenues, give or take a few percent iPads, Macs, nothing else of note I'm guessing for 2013
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Post by appledoc on Sept 10, 2013 17:17:15 GMT -8
The 5c is available for preorder this Friday and delivery on the 20th. The 5s can be preordered on the 20th with no delivery date yet published. Edited: The 5c and 5s can both be purchased Sept. 20th but the latter can't be preordered before then. Interesting. The 5s is available on the 20th at Apple retail stores and for on-line orders. No pre-orders. Apple is looking to drive more foot traffic in their stores. Want a 5S on release day? Your best bet is now an Apple Store. I'm just surprised they kept pre-orders for the 5C. Personally, it pisses me off because I'm going to have a hard time securing a 5S on release day. But I'll live.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2013 17:25:20 GMT -8
I'm thinking like a pessimist (for trading purposes). People will focus on iPhone 5S, and Apple, "ignorant" as it is, will give out (1) initial iPhone 5C+5S sales combined, (2) total initial iPhone sales, or not give out any iPhone initial sales data at all. All scenarios will be questioned to death, and Apple could easily be lambasted for the old supply chain/production ramp difficulties canard for the 5S.China Mobile is the most effective antidote, but we might not see that for some weeks yet. I like your thrust. If you examine iPhone unit sales chart, ending inventory, combined with TC's statements regarding backlog satisfaction, it becomes apparent (at least to me) that Apple is contracting for full year capacity, not launch quarter capacity. By that I mean Apple expects to satisfy December quarter demand with production commencing in late August/early September through the end of January, a five month period. Production capacity thereafter is sufficient to satisfy demand for the final 7 months of the fiscal year, taking 2 months off to reconfigure production lines, test and begin stockpiling the new model/s. Maintaing production capacity to satisfy peak December quarter demand means maintaining unused capacity for 8 months of the year. What a waste of resources. Read "The Goal" (I've recommended it before) available on Amazon. TC is the supply chain king. I trust the supply chain/strategy he has built and manages over the ignorance displayed by some here. It is that static production capacity that causes me to believe (and I have posted) that, China Mobile will not launch until after the December quarter demand surge is satisfied in January, and production capacity is freed up. This is one reason why I am more bullish on FQ2 (March quarter) than I am on FQ1 (December quarter).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2013 17:27:09 GMT -8
While the two products are nice, and while iOS7 is awesome, overall it ain't much. Just 50% of Apple's revenues, give or take a few percent And well over half Apple's Gross Margin.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2013 17:33:49 GMT -8
I had to work through all the excitement today but if the seminar I was at is any indication, there will be a lot of 5s sales coming soon.... The lack of presales hints at supply constraints but guarantees long lines on the 20th. AAPL could be in for a short-term hit, due to iPhone 5S supply constaints. Note how Apple spoke in terms of the newest iPhone last year: www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/09/24iPhone-5-First-Weekend-Sales-Top-Five-Million.htmlOh well, with any trade comes risk. Depending on tomorrow I may scale things down some because of this one particular checkpoint. Mav, I think I'm modeling about the same number for December quarter iPhone sales as you are (60 Million to 65 Million) On the low side, that represents 28% YoY growth (which is higher than industry growth). In that scenario, how can "supply constraints" be viewed as a bad thing?
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 10, 2013 17:35:27 GMT -8
I looked at the China prices posted above and like most of you am scratching my head on the price...finding it seemingly too high. I refuse to believe that AAPL priced the 5C based on a random game of throwing spaghetti against the wall. They MUST have researched this and we are possibly missing something here, no? CM subsidy!
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Post by firestorm on Sept 10, 2013 17:40:32 GMT -8
It became abundantly clear leading up to this iPhone launch that there is no way that Apple can surprise us any more; there are simply too many leaks in the supply chain. For a decade or so we could trade around product launch days; today, the only real surprise this time was in pricing of one plastic-clad phone, so that little nugget of information becomes the one fulcrum upon which traders decide the future. I liked the old days better, when there was always the possibility of "one more thing."
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Post by sponge on Sept 10, 2013 17:43:00 GMT -8
I looked at the China prices posted above and like most of you am scratching my head on the price...finding it seemingly too high. I refuse to believe that AAPL priced the 5C based on a random game of throwing spaghetti against the wall. They MUST have researched this and we are possibly missing something here, no? Nope, Apple has no pricing strategy in China. It's all ad hoc. If only Tim Cook read this board. LOL
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Post by infohunter on Sept 10, 2013 17:45:30 GMT -8
What if TC has made a deal with China Mobile and they are going to subsidies like here in the states?
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 10, 2013 17:58:34 GMT -8
While the two products are nice, and while iOS7 is awesome, overall it ain't much. Just 50% of Apple's revenues, give or take a few percent iPads, Macs, nothing else of note I'm guessing for 2013 I was referring to "in the engineering" sense. I should've been more clear. I definitely know how important the category is to the company! I think I agree with your guess ... maybe some new product announcements later this fall, but the new CATEGORY/IES announcement will be in the spring of 2014.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2013 17:59:59 GMT -8
It became abundantly clear leading up to this iPhone launch that there is no way that Apple can surprise us any more; there are simply too many leaks in the supply chain. For a decade or so we could trade around product launch days; today, the only real surprise this time was in pricing of one plastic-clad phone, so that little nugget of information becomes the one fulcrum upon which traders decide the future. I liked the old days better, when there was always the possibility of "one more thing." They can still surprise when its not hardware related (eg, pricing, software, services) - as its all controlled by apple itself. For instance look at the only unknown items from today's event: Pricing, iWork & iLife apps being bundled free, New carriers, launch dates & countries - all non hardware announcements.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2013 18:02:49 GMT -8
I'm not an Android fan by any means, but if I wasn't on a subsidized contract like everyone else in North America, you can bet I'd look at the Nexus 4 for $249 well before I'd consider an iPhone that's 4 generations old now and still selling for $423. I'm sure the majority of the chinese market will think this way as well...would they rather have an iPhone, of course...but would they be willing to pay 3 or 4 times as much? I would have loved to see the 5C at $399, even just in emerging markets to gain some market share at the cost of margins. There are about 35,000,000 iPhones on China Mobile's unsupported network. Grey market iPhones cost in excess of $1,000 each, and on the China Mobile network only 12% get 3G service. So it would appear that your point of view has been out voted by at least 35,000,000 to 1. Not enough. Coming from the guy who was estimating FY2013 at around $60 and 2014 at probably $75, this insult really doesn't mean much. If there's anyone here who has been worse with estimates and knowledge of Apple, I have yet to see him. It's just sad that you talk down to everyone who disagrees with anything that Apple does or even hints at the possibility that Apple might not grow as fast as you think and yet your own knowledge is so limited. You didn't even understand how share buybacks work, one of the most basic tools to increase share price and EPS.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2013 18:02:53 GMT -8
Well Apples pricing scheme has already boosted ASP from at least one purchase decision.
I was going to consider getting a 5C if it was the new entry level phone, but since it isn't and the iPhone 5S is so much better for only a little extra, I am going to be spending upwards of $700 instead of $450.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 10, 2013 18:07:14 GMT -8
Well Apples pricing scheme has already boosted ASP from at least one purchase decision. I was going to consider getting a 5C if it was the new entry level phone, but since it isn't and the iPhone 5S is so much better for only a little extra, I am going to be spending upwards of $700 instead of $450. Ah burgess...maybe the last laugh is really on us...this may have ultimately been AAPL's strategy all along
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Post by hellojapan on Sept 10, 2013 18:07:15 GMT -8
It's 10am in China right now. Isn't that when the event is supposed to start?
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