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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 13:46:28 GMT -8
This was not managed well. I don't think it's up to aapl to telegraph exactly what it is doing but there's a few things that are clear post jobs. One being that there are no more surprises. From the managing of realistic eps guides to lack of whiz bang one more thing...that was all Steve. It doesn't exist anymore. TC is not doing a bad job. But he's obviously not magnetic and obviously not a visionary. Not that anyone should expect him to be but the Steve effect on the stock is gone. His ability to bend reality (antenna gate?) does not exist. If you're trading on that expectation you need to reframe (or trade TSLA). Which is to say this is the same company while simultaneously NOT the same trading vehicle that it was au contraire mon ami, I think the next month or so will prove that it was INDEED managed well. Remember folks, Apple still isn't finished it's stock buy backs. That's all that's important to them (right now) or else they wouldn't have borrowed $50B in the first place. This whole thing smacks of an another Apple Corp. Officer (oppourtunity) to lower stock price for more buybacks (the deliberate ommision of CM announcement). Savin' it for (or to induce) the rebound. I know I sound like a broken record, but the tone of the press is so (typically) idiotic that it reaks of suspicion. Sit tight everybody, and buy if ya got the cash flow. A China Mobile announcement might be an interesting addition to the iPad event, which will undoubtedly see the same expansion of LTE options that the iPhone is getting.
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Post by tuffett on Sept 11, 2013 13:57:32 GMT -8
Heh, I thought racist comments were only reserved for US politics. ;D This board gets better all the time. C'mon, Gregg. Racism isn't limited to feelings of superiority based on color of skin, etc, etc. It can also be racist to assume inferior financial means based on Country or region. I think a lot of that goes on here, and like any racist view, they are based on ignorance. Ignorance? I live in Richmond, BC, one of the most densely populated Chinese areas in North America. My girlfriend is Mainland Chinese - she lived there for the first 15 years of her life. I have visited the country a handful of times over the past few years. I have many friends from here who now live in China, and have made friends of many native Chinese in China. Suffice to say I know a little bit about their culture and their financial situation. Racist, my ass. Assumptions, my ass. You're the ignorant one, so kindly shut the fuck up.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 14:03:01 GMT -8
For consideration, on Nike:
"Pricing Strategies ...Nike targets the consumers who embrace product intimacy and thus care less about the product. This has enables Nike to set relatively higher prices than its competitors. This is a strategy that calls for higher pricing points so as to push the perceived product value. It has been established that consumers who consider a product to be of high quality are likely to pay the high price more often and consistently. Once consumers develop product intimacy, they come to associate their person with the product and will pay whatever price quoted on the product provided it has the Nike logo on it. Another very important thing to note is the fact that Nike uses the vertical integration pricing strategy in which they take ownership of the participants at channel levels that differ and they also engage in multifarious channel level operations both in a bid to control costs and thus influence pricing function (Goldman S, 2000, pp154)"
I thinks Its not a coincidence that Tim Cook is also on the Nike board of directors. The product positioning strategy is so similar.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 14:08:39 GMT -8
I'm kicking myself that I sold my weekly Put spreads "insurance" for a small profit before the close of trade yesterday, lesson learned.
I am however happy that I purchased some more 2015 LEAPs today. This was a good buying opportunity.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 14:16:47 GMT -8
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 11, 2013 14:18:38 GMT -8
From the fly on the wall site Survey: After Apple announced that its iPhone 5C would cost a minimum of about $730 in China, only 2.6% of Chinese respondents to a survey are considering buying the device, and 89.4% said it was too expensive, popular Chinese news portal Sina reported, according to China Daily. New iPhones a dud in China, so farOnly? That's 31.2 MILLION people ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 14:21:20 GMT -8
If I asked 1000 Americans if they would pay even $500 for x iPhone, I bet 90% say no.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 11, 2013 14:23:31 GMT -8
I'm kicking myself that I sold my weekly Put spreads "insurance" for a small profit before the close of trade yesterday, lesson learned. I am however happy that I purchased some more 2015 LEAPs today. This was a good buying opportunity. I wish the 2016 LEAPs were already out! Another week (or month)?
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 11, 2013 14:25:08 GMT -8
If I asked 1000 Americans if they would pay even $500 for x iPhone, I bet 90% say no. Americans don't pay $500 for any phone, they pay $0 to $200 with the subsidy and then get locked in for 2 years. That is slowly beginning to change (T-Mobile, for example), but it will make it more difficult for smartphone makers to sell their products because of the perceived high upfront cost.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 14:34:56 GMT -8
If I asked 1000 Americans if they would pay even $500 for x iPhone, I bet 90% say no. Americans don't pay $500 for any phone, they pay $0 to $200 with the subsidy and then get locked in for 2 years. That is slowly beginning to change (T-Mobile, for example), but it will make it more difficult for smartphone makers to sell their products because of the perceived high upfront cost. The high subsidy model is very good business for the major carriers (Verizon and AT&T) - I think they may not be rushing to copy the t-mobile efforts.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 14:36:07 GMT -8
Good time for Apple to go back to the bond markets. I wish they would pull the trigger and just borrow another $100 billion.
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aapldamus
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Post by aapldamus on Sept 11, 2013 14:55:11 GMT -8
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Post by cbingle on Sept 11, 2013 15:10:18 GMT -8
I think Apple is going to sell a butt load of 5s and 5c phones to the world markets. The 5s is a major upgrade and the 5c is a fun phone for the younger generation.
I do not understand the fascination for third world markets with no money. When they develop, and have more income, they can buy an IPhone if they wish. Giving one to them does not seem like a good idea to me. I think Tim feels the same way.
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Post by appledoc on Sept 11, 2013 15:30:28 GMT -8
I agree. But it can always get worse.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 15:33:34 GMT -8
If I asked 1000 Americans if they would pay even $500 for x iPhone, I bet 90% say no. Americans don't pay $500 for any phone, they pay $0 to $200 with the subsidy and then get locked in for 2 years. That is slowly beginning to change (T-Mobile, for example), but it will make it more difficult for smartphone makers to sell their products because of the perceived high upfront cost. Which was my point. Apple will forever be torn between prepaid and postpaid worlds - unless one really starts winning, but the handset market is massive so I doubt there will be any one dominant segment overall. "MSRP" isn't the only way to get an iPhone. Even in China. And the Chinese consumers are savvy enough to know this. Several million China Mobile customers not only don't have subsidies, they don't care, in some cases probably overpaying on the grey market. China Mobile subs aren't all prepaid. A small fraction equating to over 100M subscribers are on postpaid. So obviously, if a CM deal is struck, it'll include carrier subsidies. Meaning that for those willing to put up with an evil contract, their upfront iPhone 5C cost won't be $730+.
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Post by yellowhandman on Sept 11, 2013 15:38:49 GMT -8
The market's reaction is completely brainless. IIRC Apple's "problem" last quarter was that they sold more 4/4Ses than most anticipated, so they ended up selling more iPhones than projected - however, because of the mix, margins were lower. But the results clearly showed that there IS demand at this lower-but-not-cheap price point.
So now Apple has a brand new phone at that price point, that common sense dictates would increase demand. But the market doesn't see it that way.
As for China Mobile, it's obvious a deal IS on the way. And despite all the talking heads saying the 5C is priced too high, the fact is that Apple doesn't need to sell to every single CM customer to increase their China numbers. Even if a few percentage points' worth of CM customers buy iPhone 5Cs, that's millions of additional sales for Apple. Add DoCoMo to that.
I've been long for a loooong time. Quite happy to just sit on what I have.
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Post by rezonate on Sept 11, 2013 16:42:31 GMT -8
Remember that Apple is driven by just two things: customer experience and the long-term customer relationship. They want to incentivize as many customers to adopt the most recent hardware. Existing customers retain a high quality user experience far into the future. This allows Apple to drop support for obsolete hardware and software.
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Post by geraci on Sept 11, 2013 16:42:42 GMT -8
Americans don't pay $500 for any phone, they pay $0 to $200 with the subsidy and then get locked in for 2 years. That is slowly beginning to change (T-Mobile, for example), but it will make it more difficult for smartphone makers to sell their products because of the perceived high upfront cost. Carrier subsidies are just another way of saying carrier financing. There are a lot of ways to skin this cat.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 11, 2013 16:46:25 GMT -8
From the fly on the wall site Survey: After Apple announced that its iPhone 5C would cost a minimum of about $730 in China, only 2.6% of Chinese respondents to a survey are considering buying the device, and 89.4% said it was too expensive, popular Chinese news portal Sina reported, according to China Daily. New iPhones a dud in China, so farThat should tell Apple everything they need to know. For a company that goes out of it's way to tell us how important China is to it's future they sure seemed to drop the ball on pricing. Those are terrible numbers and I can't believe people would not be concerned about it ... I sure as hell am.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 17:07:35 GMT -8
Re-read this page discussion.
Run the survey in the US. $730 iPhone, WILL YOU BUY IT? I GUARANTEE you get similar results.
But that's skewed. You present a person with a price and ask if they'll pay it.
Heck, ask an on-contract smartphone owner "will you pay $2000 to run your smartphone with service for two years" and see what they say.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 11, 2013 17:12:27 GMT -8
IMHO, the retrace was coming, after the move from 388 to 515. Has nothing to do with the content at the two events. Just the pendulum swinging. Saying that on a -5% day. Careful iPad. It sounds more knowing than anyone here could be. I defy anyone to say with a straight face this reverse train day was foreseen. This too shall pass, or not I'm always surprised by train days, even though I shouldn't be, because we all know when this stock moves, it moves. That said, I've been posting my thoughts in the technical threads, so it's all there for review. I'm not saying anything new here.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 17:13:53 GMT -8
This is the divide, right there. I think I can speak from experience a bit here since I'm trying to bridge the gap.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 17:14:49 GMT -8
So does anyone actually have the Chinese subsidized iPhone pricing on the current Chinese carriers?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 11, 2013 17:24:13 GMT -8
IMHO, the retrace was coming, after the move from 388 to 515. Has nothing to do with the content at the two events. Just the pendulum swinging. Seriously Lovey? Clearly, WS is not buying Apple's plan of re-branding a year-old phone in plastic as their flagship device. Hopefully, Apple's strategy will be proven correct with sales and margins, but to chalk up this tanking to the random ebbs and flows of TA? Nonono. I'm chalking it up to the pendulum of sentiment. After a 130 point run, it's normal and natural to give back 23-38% before going higher. I sure shit didn't expect 25 points in one day. But these support levels... IMHO, retracing the Icahn move was inevitable. (REMEMBER when I said we were coming back here and threatened to lock you out of your account to keep you from buying dips in the high 490s?!) So now, after the pullback, once we resume the upside, we'll have some new catalyst for an explanation... Maybe this same news recycled with a positive spin. Me, I chalk everything up to sentiment. Greed and fear. Nothing else. Just a pendulum.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 11, 2013 17:35:07 GMT -8
From the fly on the wall site Survey: After Apple announced that its iPhone 5C would cost a minimum of about $730 in China, only 2.6% of Chinese respondents to a survey are considering buying the device, and 89.4% said it was too expensive, popular Chinese news portal Sina reported, according to China Daily. New iPhones a dud in China, so farThat should tell Apple everything they need to know. For a company that goes out of it's way to tell us how important China is to it's future they sure seemed to drop the ball on pricing. Those are terrible numbers and I can't believe people would not be concerned about it ... I sure as hell am. Some pack of link baiters who seek out sensationalist headlines and declare a product a dud before it even hits the market have nothing of value to teach or say to Apple. That survey and the dud conclusion are a total joke. If you want to fret about something this is not the one that merits your attention.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 17:35:51 GMT -8
So does anyone actually have the Chinese subsidized iPhone pricing on the current Chinese carriers? I thought the 5C started at $730. Sorry, couldn't help myself. Nuance, people. Nuances like the one burgess mentioned.
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Post by capablanca on Sept 11, 2013 17:42:53 GMT -8
And boy does he get it. I really like his final line. Thanks, Greg.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 11, 2013 17:45:26 GMT -8
I suspect there might be some Elliott Wave baked into that thinking, perhaps subconsciously. YES!! Consciously even. When we're in "positive sentiment" mode, all news is good news. When we're in "negative sentiment" mode, all news is bad news. I suspect today's exact same news will be recycled with a positive spin shortly. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 17:46:15 GMT -8
Ben's laying out what he thinks Apple's MO is. I think he's right, generally, but it will be very, very easy to see if potential oversimplification is in play based on the next three quarters of gross margins (subject to the usual "other" factors that might affect GM by a percent at the most).
My theory is Apple's margins aren't in the 40s any longer by design. I'm not looking to see much if _any_ margin recovery by Apple going forward, but who knows.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 17:47:33 GMT -8
I suspect there might be some Elliott Wave baked into that thinking, perhaps subconsciously. YES!! Consciously even. When we're in "positive sentiment" mode, all news is good news. When we're in "negative sentiment" mode, all news is bad news. I suspect today's exact same news will be recycled with a positive spin shortly. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. That's the problem, though. I actually kind of understand, and I'm still not happy with it. Maybe I'm just weird and hypersensitive. Though again, I say this as someone who, yes even before today's hellish selloff, had more in trades in XOM/NFLX/TBT than AAPL. So it's not entirely like I went in all-in weekly calls plus margin to run into this buzzsaw.
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