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Post by capablanca on Sept 11, 2013 18:05:48 GMT -8
I will agree to disagree on all of this. In my view the tail is wagging the dog with any suggestion that what we are seeing today is not almost entirely driven by yesterday's event. Technicals have nothing to do with it. The "world" has decided that Apple has screwed up and the stock is paying the price for it. We can absolutely agree to disagree. That said, I think some of what we're saying is the same thing. IMHO, sentiment is a pendulum. Usually when there's a big vertical move well into a run, that tends to be the end of the move. People start getting antsy about protecting profits or cutting losses. As we go sideways, chopping around, doubts set in for both sides. Are we going up or down? Am I on the right side or the wrong side? Then, a catalyst comes along. It could be good or bad. It always makes more sense when good news makes the stock go up and bad news makes the stock go down, but I think it's more a case of where are we in the arc of the pendulum, and at the tail end, it's going to swing the other way no matter what. I know it is too late to join the argument, but I must at least observe that I disagree with both of you. 1) Technicals matter a lot. 2) But I don't buy the pendulum thing. Where fundamentals (which also matter) break down is where we, as a group, start thinking we can forecast the future. The pendulum thing breaks down likewise. In fact it is an extreme example of believing we can predict the future. A pendulum is nothing if not regular and predictable. Now if one substitutes varying tides and non-linear trends, I could maybe get on board.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 11, 2013 18:06:26 GMT -8
The last time we had a gap down like this, it was after Jan earnings. That presaged 8 months of down trading. As I said on Monday night, if the iPhone 5c is priced at $499 or above (as gruber was guessing), we have stock doldrums ahead. I wouldn't be surprised to see 400 again in the next few months. Make sure your roller coaster grab bar is secure. In JAN'13, we gapped down 79 points, then retraced 50 points (63.2%) over the next 10 days. Though the horrid drop from 705 *felt* as though it was straight down, there was periodic retrace along the way. THIS drop should minimally retrace 38%. And that is if it's the shrimpiest retrace all year! See chart: AAPL 1H CHART: So, anyone who wants off the roller coaster, sell or hedge into the retrace towards 480-ish.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 11, 2013 18:08:54 GMT -8
I know it is too late to join the argument, but I must at least observe that I disagree with both of you. 1) Technicals matter a lot. 2) But I don't buy the pendulum thing. Where fundamentals (which also matter) break down is where we, as a group, start thinking we can forecast the future. The pendulum thing breaks down likewise. In fact it is an extreme example of believing we can predict the future. A pendulum is nothing if not regular and predictable. Now if one substitutes varying tides and non-linear trends, I could maybe get on board. I love you, Capa!! I think I'd need to borrow Bud's brain to understand varying tides and non-linear trends. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 18:40:48 GMT -8
Ben Thompson of Stratechery is a very good commentator, but his comments like "Net engagement (number of users x engagement per user) drives app quality/quantity" are puzzlers sometimes. I mean, Windows! Mega users, engagement by captivity. And yet the empire's fading.
Quality of engagement is more important than many realize, I think. Massive numbers of users leading to less aggregate app revenue doesn't look like the end-all be-all advantage. Supposedly iOS generates 2.3x revs, TOTAL, compared to Google Play as of July 2013. So why would iOS developers drop iOS, again?
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 11, 2013 18:42:49 GMT -8
Re-read this page discussion. Run the survey in the US. $730 iPhone, WILL YOU BUY IT? I GUARANTEE you get similar results. But that's skewed. You present a person with a price and ask if they'll pay it. Heck, ask an on-contract smartphone owner "will you pay $2000 to run your smartphone with service for two years" and see what they say. I agree with you 100% . I even stated what you did earlier regarding the price in the U.S. Thankfully most subscribers of cell phones in this country don't even understand their handset is subsidized so it works .... Unfortunately in Asia and Europe the game is quite different ... price is even more important and the iPhone 5C is MUCH more expensive than the alternative. I also don't think it's a matter of if the person is WILLING to pay it ... most would be they simply can not. There are a lot of people saying that they are glad Apple does not do cheap .... yes I get it but this is not a black or white issue ... their are shades of grey. $549 sounds really high ... how about if Apple removed the retina display and used most of the "OLD" iPhone 5 guts and tried to come in around $429 ..... that is still not cheap and the phone would still be very nice. It's not all or nothing but Apple's $549 is simply too high in my book to make a significant dent in market penetration. Of course they will still sell but this is not going to to much in the way of stopping Android's dominance in those markets.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 18:47:09 GMT -8
One thought that I haven't been able to shake is the iPad upgrade cycle.
Is it clear, apart from the runor mills, that Apple will be upgrading the iPad any time soon?
If upgraded, what's the likelihood that it will get the hardware/software bells and whistles of the iPhone 5S?
I'm particularly interested in the camera, A7 processor and fingerprint reader.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 11, 2013 18:49:39 GMT -8
I would not be surprised at all, to learn that many (5%?) of these jail broke hiPhones aren't replaced by the 5C and/or 5S during the December quarter. Think ~2 Million units without an official announcement. Interesting thought, would they need to jailbreak their new iPhone if it is in fact compatible with the CM network?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 18:51:36 GMT -8
gtrplyr -
Carriers incentivized to sell iPhones (which is most every carrier) will help with that. I'm certainly not blind to Apple's strategy (which is partially constrained by its own market power) and the risks it entails. The point is, one of Apple's available moves on the 3-D chess board is to change attitudes and move the needle in favor of postpaid.
It's not the only move, it might not be the best move, I'm not even sure if Apple is leaning that way, but it IS a natural move Apple could make. The greater the price parity or the less the upfront cost, the slightly closer Apple gets to a US market situation.
China Telecom has 7-8x times the 3G smartphone subscribers it had in 2010. That's one example of a megatheme. You can bet that situation didn't come about by consumers spending less money.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 18:53:12 GMT -8
One thought that I haven't been able to shake is the iPad upgrade cycle. Is it clear, apart from the runor mills, that Apple will be upgrading the iPad any time soon? If upgraded, what's the likelihood that it will get the hardware/software bells and whistles of the iPhone 5S? I'm particularly interested in the camera, A7 processor and fingerprint reader. Updated iPads most definitely coming soon - slimmed down retina 9.7" & a updated mini (hopefully with a retina option). Next month, november at the latest. the iPads wont get the 5S camera, but the 9.7" will get the A7 (maybe an A7x version), and hopefully the fingerprint sensor.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 18:57:22 GMT -8
Re-read this page discussion. Run the survey in the US. $730 iPhone, WILL YOU BUY IT? I GUARANTEE you get similar results. But that's skewed. You present a person with a price and ask if they'll pay it. Heck, ask an on-contract smartphone owner "will you pay $2000 to run your smartphone with service for two years" and see what they say. I agree with you 100% . I even stated what you did earlier regarding the price in the U.S. Thankfully most subscribers of cell phones in this country don't even understand their handset is subsidized so it works .... Unfortunately in Asia and Europe the game is quite different ... price is even more important and the iPhone 5C is MUCH more expensive than the alternative. I also don't think it's a matter of if the person is WILLING to pay it ... most would be they simply can not. There are a lot of people saying that they are glad Apple does not do cheap .... yes I get it but this is not a black or white issue ... their are shades of grey. $549 sounds really high ... how about if Apple removed the retina display and used most of the "OLD" iPhone 5 guts and tried to come in around $429 ..... that is still not cheap and the phone would still be very nice. It's not all or nothing but Apple's $549 is simply too high in my book to make a significant dent in market penetration. Of course they will still sell but this is not going to to much in the way of stopping Android's dominance in those markets. Its much easier to lower the price on the 5C (if it proves too expensive), than it is to raise the price if its too low (and not being able to meet demand as well as cannibalizing the 5S sales). likewise, if need be it would also be easy for apple to replace the 4S in 6 months with a gimpier 5C (A5, 8GB, no LTE).
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 11, 2013 19:05:37 GMT -8
From the fly on the wall site Survey: After Apple announced that its iPhone 5C would cost a minimum of about $730 in China, only 2.6% of Chinese respondents to a survey are considering buying the device, and 89.4% said it was too expensive, popular Chinese news portal Sina reported, according to China Daily. New iPhones a dud in China, so farThat should tell Apple everything they need to know. For a company that goes out of it's way to tell us how important China is to it's future they sure seemed to drop the ball on pricing. Those are terrible numbers and I can't believe people would not be concerned about it ... I sure as hell am. Some random "survey" done after the release of the iPhone 5C should tell Apple everything they need to know? I'm going with "false." No accurate, scientific polling could be done this quickly in a country as large as China. Even Gallup takes like 2 days to spit out its numbers for public consumption. If you think Apple didn't do its own China pricing market research the past 2 years, then I have a brand new Mac IIfx I'd like to sell you for $10,000. You might disagree with Apple's approach, but let's not pretend that it's an ad hoc one.
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Post by applemuncher on Sept 11, 2013 19:06:17 GMT -8
One thought that I haven't been able to shake is the iPad upgrade cycle. Is it clear, apart from the runor mills, that Apple will be upgrading the iPad any time soon? If upgraded, what's the likelihood that it will get the hardware/software bells and whistles of the iPhone 5S? I'm particularly interested in the camera, A7 processor and fingerprint reader. Updated iPads most definitely coming soon - slimmed down retina 9.7" & a updated mini (hopefully with a retina option). Next month, november at the latest. the iPads wont get the 5S camera, but the 9.7" will get the A7 (maybe an A7x version), and hopefully the fingerprint sensor. I wonder if the new iPad Mini of 2013 will be the iMac of 2012? I had hope that Apple had learned from the product availability issues of 2012. I'm worried now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 19:07:51 GMT -8
iPhone 5 was born with LTE, burgess. An 8GB 5C in 2014, maybe, but not without LTE.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 19:09:18 GMT -8
If you like THAT survey JD, you'll LOVE the survey of seven people that led a Businessweek article to declare, "In Beijing, the New IPhone Gets a Resounding 'Meh'" (why link to it?)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 19:34:56 GMT -8
Downloaded with my ATT rep today. He's fielding massive interest over the 5s. Not as much with the 5c. However, he said that the 5 over the past year outsold the 4s by around 10 to 1. The model 4 sold fewer quantities than the 4s.
I'm convinced Apple will do better selling the 5c than they would have sold the old 5, AND Apple realizes higher margin (lower cost plastic, easier to build, fewer returns from scuffs, etc.) in the process.
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Post by mace on Sept 11, 2013 19:39:29 GMT -8
... re-branding a year-old phone in plastic as their flagship device ... iPhone 5 needs to be replaced because its LTE chip doesn't support all LTE bands. From Apple's site, 7 (2600 MHz), 8 (900 MHz), 20 (800 DD) and 26 (800 MHz), 38 (TD 2600), 39 (TD 1900) and 40 (TD 2300) were not supported. iPhone 5C/5S support these bands. Back to Top Logged
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 11, 2013 20:01:42 GMT -8
Americans don't pay $500 for any phone, they pay $0 to $200 with the subsidy and then get locked in for 2 years. That is slowly beginning to change (T-Mobile, for example), but it will make it more difficult for smartphone makers to sell their products because of the perceived high upfront cost. Carrier subsidies are just another way of saying carrier financing. There are a lot of ways to skin this cat. And that is, indeed, what T-Mobile has been doing. $50/mo for the unlimited plan plus $20/mo for the phone with $200 down or something like that. The difference is that the $20 stops after two years, not so with postpaid like AT&T and Verizon typical plans.
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Post by macziggy on Sept 11, 2013 20:23:18 GMT -8
For a while now, Apple has maintained that the 4 and 4s have been big sellers....bigger than they ever expected in the last year, in the US at least. So, it's easy to see that is the reason they think the 5C will sell well.
But, I have a hard time imagining that Steve Jobs would have ever approved of the 5C. It's so garish and so unlike Apple....and the plastic...wow. It seems like it's Jony Ive, uncensored. And, that is too bad. Because I think he needs someone to say when he goes too far. And, Tim Cook is not that man. But, Steve Jobs probably was.
I could be wrong.
I happened to watch the horrible, beast Cramer this afternoon and as much as I hate his approach, I have to say that I agree very much with what he had to say about Tim Cook. He said Cook stoked the flames of expectation...from his interview many months ago when he said there would be great products coming in the fall of 2013...and that is not what a CEO should do. He said a CEO should under promise and over deliver (UPOD) and I absolutely agree. Cook could have stopped some of the rampant rumors and he didn't. He's just in over his head.
I'm disappointed in Tim Cook. Apple could have taken the 4S and retooled it to fill the bottom of the line-up in plastic instead of the iPhone 5 at a much lower price. The lower price is really important.
I think the subsidized model is on the decline in a major way. I won't ever agree to a two-year contract again. After six years of contracts, I'm looking forward to ditching them forever. I'm still happy with my Verizon 4S, but, it seems pretty difficult to find a new, contract-free carrier for this particular model of iPhone 4S. And, that's really bad.
I sold most of the shares I bought in 2002 today. Sad. This whole decline has been absolutely unbelievable and I'm out until I see someone "thinking different." Not holding my breath for that. Many wrong steps in the last year. And, probably more ahead.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 11, 2013 20:50:53 GMT -8
iPhone 5 needs to be replaced because its LTE chip doesn't support all LTE bands. Right, but mostly nip-and-tuck, nothing major. iPhone 5 with a couple freq's added. The difference is that the $20 stops after two years, not so with postpaid like AT&T and Verizon typical plans. Which is why I left those ATT pricks the *day* my iPhone 4 contract expired, and went with T-Mobile. Monthly bill dropped from $84 to $50. But, I have a hard time imagining that Steve Jobs would have ever approved of the 5C. Considering the length of Apple's pipeline (3-5 years), it is hard to believe that SJ did not approve at least a prototype of the 5C. But I agree that Cramer is a horrible beast.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 20:53:57 GMT -8
I watched the media event on my Sony XBR in HD. Wow. And I'll admit to being wrong about the white front on the 5c -- black fronts work on all the colors (seeing it in HD for the first time). But an all white phone would have been sublime. I think the 5c is a sleeper hit. Of course, the 5s is going to queue lines at the carriers and Apple stores in a very big way.
I'm excited and am convinced Apple made the right marketing decisions here.
If you haven't yet, I encourage everyone to watch in on Apple TV. Very impressive in HD.
Looking to buy more AAPL here, probably Friday or Monday, nothing short term.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 21:01:54 GMT -8
I would not be surprised at all, to learn that many (5%?) of these jail broke hiPhones aren't replaced by the 5C and/or 5S during the December quarter. Think ~2 Million units without an official announcement. Interesting thought, would they need to jailbreak their new iPhone if it is in fact compatible with the CM network? No, they would not.
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Post by mace on Sept 11, 2013 21:02:26 GMT -8
The 5s is a major upgrade and the 5c is a fun phone for the younger generation. Exactly. 5C should be hot with the girls, they would probably buy all the six cases too for matching with their clothes.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 21:04:53 GMT -8
That should tell Apple everything they need to know. For a company that goes out of it's way to tell us how important China is to it's future they sure seemed to drop the ball on pricing. Those are terrible numbers and I can't believe people would not be concerned about it ... I sure as hell am. Some random "survey" done after the release of the iPhone 5C should tell Apple everything they need to know? I'm going with "false." No accurate, scientific polling could be done this quickly in a country as large as China. Even Gallup takes like 2 days to spit out its numbers for public consumption. If you think Apple didn't do its own China pricing market research the past 2 years, then I have a brand new Mac IIfx I'd like to sell you for $10,000. You might disagree with Apple's approach, but let's not pretend that it's an ad hoc one. Bravo.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 21:09:04 GMT -8
Downloaded with my ATT rep today. He's fielding massive interest over the 5s. Not as much with the 5c. However, he said that the 5 over the past year outsold the 4s by around 10 to 1. The model 4 sold fewer quantities than the 4s. I'm convinced Apple will do better selling the 5c than they would have sold the old 5, AND Apple realizes higher margin (lower cost plastic, easier to build, fewer returns from scuffs, etc.) in the process. Accompanied my sister to the local Apple Store this evening. When asked, the sales queried us asking, "have you been to a launch before?" When told we were there (I slept on sidewalk) opening day, he responded, "this is going to be bigger than that".
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 21:12:54 GMT -8
... re-branding a year-old phone in plastic as their flagship device ... iPhone 5 needs to be replaced because its LTE chip doesn't support all LTE bands. From Apple's site, 7 (2600 MHz), 8 (900 MHz), 20 (800 DD) and 26 (800 MHz), 38 (TD 2600), 39 (TD 1900) and 40 (TD 2300) were not supported. iPhone 5C/5S support these bands. Back to Top Logged Exactly. Most importantly, the 5 did not support China Mobile's TD-SCDMA protocol. If anything, the 5C represents a low cost (in relation to the 5S) iPhone that supports China Mobile's TD-SCDMA network.
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Post by macziggy on Sept 11, 2013 21:23:31 GMT -8
I apologize to everyone on this forum for such a negative post. I've used Apple everything for most of my life but, emotionally, the last year has taken a huge toll on me. It was so hard to sell. But, I feel better now. And....I hope it soars for all of you!
And, yes, I'll be buying the 5S just because of the amazing camera! But without a contract from now on.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2013 21:24:34 GMT -8
I predict on Sep 20th, Slo-mo videos shot with the new 5S 120fps camera are going to become a huge Internet Fad. Especially on Facebook/twitter/vine.
I'm looking forward to seeing the lines in the media coverage. If apple didn't allow pre-orders solely due to wanting big lines - I approve, the cynical media need to be shown what iPhone demand really looks like in person (since being told in a press release 5 million+ units were sold over a weekend doesn't seem to impress them.)
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Post by sponge on Sept 11, 2013 21:40:06 GMT -8
Apple is on 30 more carriers this year compared to last year. Lack of pre orders for the 5S I think is due to lack of supply to meet China and the extra carriers in the first 6 weeks. I will be in line for the first time in two years at my local ATT store. Hope they have a gold one left for the Sponge.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 11, 2013 21:44:18 GMT -8
I predict on Sep 20th, Slo-mo videos shot with the new 5S 120fps camera are going to become a huge Internet Fad. Especially on Facebook/twitter/vine. I'm looking forward to seeing the lines in the media coverage. If apple didn't allow pre-orders solely due to wanting big lines - I approve, the cynical media need to be shown what iPhone demand really looks like in person (since being told in a press release 5 million+ units were sold over a weekend doesn't seem to impress them.) Agree 100%. The lines will be great publicity. We had this discussion last year when the lines in China were subdued due to the reservation system. Nothing else like seeing those lines on launch day.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 11, 2013 21:48:58 GMT -8
I predict on Sep 20th, Slo-mo videos shot with the new 5S 120fps camera are going to become a huge Internet Fad. Especially on Facebook/twitter/vine. I'm looking forward to seeing the lines in the media coverage. If apple didn't allow pre-orders solely due to wanting big lines - I approve, the cynical media need to be shown what iPhone demand really looks like in person (since being told in a press release 5 million+ units were sold over a weekend doesn't seem to impress them.) It's going to be a supply constrained mess for a while, unless ship times don't slip after the launch window, similar to how the 4S had ample supply (how spoiled we all were then). As far as me as an iPhone owner, stupid AT&T has locked me out until October. As an AAPL long, my current base case is another month to muddle through.
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