Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 12:39:05 GMT -8
appledoc, I cast my lot today so to speak. Though that could also mean impending retrace. I'm terrible at timing that way. Here's a much better copy of that first photo for meme generation purposes.
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coma
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Post by coma on Sept 23, 2013 12:41:15 GMT -8
This is too good not to post. Thanks to a StockTwitter: was he laughing at analysts expecting low sales, the Microsoft announcement, or the BBRY buyout? All three . . .
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Post by appledoc on Sept 23, 2013 12:46:46 GMT -8
appledoc, I cast my lot today so to speak. Though that could also mean impending retrace. I'm terrible at timing that way. Here's a much better copy of that first photo for meme generation purposes. Will work out for you, I'm sure. Maybe some retrace here, but 513+ is in the horizon.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2013 12:47:00 GMT -8
Attention! Attention ! Peter Misek please report down to the Principal's Office immediately !!! LOL!!
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Post by doublerainbow on Sept 23, 2013 12:51:20 GMT -8
shoot didn't have time to pull the trigger today. ): tomorrow (whatever the case may be), I'm buying!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2013 12:54:30 GMT -8
What's with the sudden sell off? Some is profit-taking. There will be those who have been underwater since around this level who swore if they ever reached break even, they would never get back on the roller coaster again.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2013 12:56:56 GMT -8
AAPL losing a lot of steam .... if THIS doesn't move the shares I'm out of ideas as to what will ... : ( Back of napkin rule of thumb: as long as you don't give up more than 61.8% of the rope, you are still winning the Tug of War.
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aapldamus
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"Miss Cleo ain't got NOTHING on me!"
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Post by aapldamus on Sept 23, 2013 12:58:44 GMT -8
True. This pop sure feels like AAPL actually earned it and got a thumbs up from everyone including WS. I see us around 525-530 by earnings if the positivity prevails and news of an iPad event kicks in soon. I see us at 525 NEXT week. Ground Control to Major Tom. hahaha awesome avatar! GOLD IS BEST!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 12:59:42 GMT -8
AAPL losing a lot of steam .... if THIS doesn't move the shares I'm out of ideas as to what will ... : ( Back of napkin rule of thumb: as long as you don't give up more than 61.8% of the rope, you are still winning the Tug of War. For _now_, AAPL doing extremely well by that metric. 38.2% Fib level held.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2013 13:01:56 GMT -8
A little surprised by the fading so far I guess the FED whatever might be at fault. Okay, I'm reading these posts in order and haven't read all of them, only up to here ^^ at this point, but I'm seeing a recurring theme. AAPL goes up 30 points in one day, then retraces 50%, and people wonder why?!? It's normal ebb and flow. We don't go straight up; we don't go straight down. There is always retrace. Measure it, and you can tell who is winning in Tug of War at any given time. Retrace only went to 50%...couldn't get to 61.8%. Means retest of HOD comes next.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2013 13:03:27 GMT -8
Back of napkin rule of thumb: as long as you don't give up more than 61.8% of the rope, you are still winning the Tug of War. For _now_, AAPL doing extremely well by that metric. 38.2% Fib level held. And 50% of today's move...I thought that was impressive. Bears couldn't retake 61.8% of lost rope. And yes, for now. Always for now.
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Post by terps530 on Sept 23, 2013 13:10:23 GMT -8
I will return mine in about three weeks. The buttons are a little lose and it rattles when it vibrates. Will hope to exchange it for a gold color. ? The buttons loose? I think Sponge just wants a gold one to match the gold chain around his neck... actually i'm with sponge here. it's a minor minor issue, but my top button does rattle slightly (there is some play in it from side-to-side). i'm sure it will disappear with a case, but it is noticeable when i touch it. i googled it earlier and it seems it was somewhat common on the 5 as well.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2013 13:11:30 GMT -8
Oh, right, pro gap. Trader-speak for "a gap up that holds and may indicate higher prices; a day to take notice; a power move that favors bulls". See also: Breakaway gap, gap-and-go. Bear in mind that while I understand the term and its syntax, you're asking me to define something that iPad and other more experienced technical traders are much better qualified to define. Gold star!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2013 13:19:19 GMT -8
Hubby and I are moving this week. The packers are here, and I'm surrounded by boxes, with only my iPad for entertainment. Times like this, I loooooooove my iPad more than ever! Oh, and: WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!
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Post by Plato on Sept 23, 2013 13:22:10 GMT -8
Only 2 things to say:
1. WOW Apple - FANTASTIC!!!!! 2. To Gene Munster - Please do 2 things asap 1. Apologize to the Apple investors for your AGAIN completely f*cked up call, and 2. Please NEVER EVER make ANY calls on Apple whatsoever, and resign your analyst job - you SUCK!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 13:36:34 GMT -8
Well done Apple!
(Agree with Mercel, highly likely the kicker was the iPhone 5c channel fill).
I'll be happy when this quarter is over and done with. A slight increase in revenue over last year despite a big iPhone shipment increase means iPads are going to again be disappointing this quarter (for a good reason - last year in Sep quarter we still had a fresh iPad 3 selling, whereas this year the iPads are getting stale in their 4th quarter of release). Macs and iPods will also be down y-o-y.
December quarter will be the first true year on year comparison with the same product cycle. We should get more units of iPhones & iPads, growing software & accessory sales, & ok mac sales (due to forthcoming Mac Pro & MacBook Pro releases alongside the mavericks release).
All up December should be: increased revenue, similar margins, less share count = decent EPS increase year on year.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 23, 2013 14:13:32 GMT -8
Only 2 things to say: 1. WOW Apple - FANTASTIC!!!!! 2. To Gene Munster - Please do 2 things asap 1. Apologize to the Apple investors for your AGAIN completely f*cked up call, and 2. Please NEVER EVER make ANY calls on Apple whatsoever, and resign your analyst job - you SUCK! Munster has always been an Apple enthusiast .... too bad he's been so wrong lately and yes his "Analyst" skills Suck. Your #2 could be applied to almost EVERY firm that covers Apple. Imagine how Karen Finerman feels as she held and held and finally sold a few days ago. She said her team spotted some squiggly lines doing some funny things and that was that. For the record I like her and find her to be reasonable ... and quite intelligent. Just goes to show you how hard this stuff is to get right ... Apple killed it .... I was worried ... good thing I'm long and don't touch my position ... that's why I'm sitting here typing this and Tim Cook is where he is Should be a very fine end to the year ....
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Post by joel90069 on Sept 23, 2013 14:21:03 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Sept 23, 2013 14:25:03 GMT -8
Mav - you should use your blog and write a post calling this guy out. You will get thousands of hits.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 14:54:10 GMT -8
Nah. Even if that was possible, not worth the effort. Not even PED can move the needle much on shining the spotlight on the chronically wrong.
Also, nothing against Finerman. But she was a capitulation data point. Bet she regrets not holding the shares.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 23, 2013 15:02:23 GMT -8
Why is everyone picking on Gene Munster? He was wrong on estimates but he has been an AAPL bull all along. He had faith in the company but has gotten burned so he erred to the side of being conservative. If you want to torch someone and hand them over to the rioting villagers, try Peter Misek or Colin Gilles or a myriad of other idiots that are not only consistently wrong but then go on to speak negatively of the brand ALL THE TIME. THEY are the true pusillanimous reprobates! Gene's biggest crime was that he was too conservative but come on...think of all the downgrades and PT adjustments that occurred after the iPhone 5S was introduced. Those are the guys who should be torched! Useless...they are all useless I tell ya!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 15:12:18 GMT -8
I hate all crappy analysts.
I don't have an especially big issue with GM relative to other bad analysts. But 45M iPhones in 2009...wow.
Let's change the analyst then. I bet Zabitsky's having a really great day, phoebear! ;D
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 23, 2013 15:16:26 GMT -8
Why is everyone picking on Gene Munster? He was wrong on estimates but he has been an AAPL bull all along. He had faith in the company but has gotten burned so he erred to the side of being conservative. If you want to torch someone and hand them over to the rioting villagers, try Peter Misek or Colin Gilles or a myriad of other idiots that are not only consistently wrong but then go on to speak negatively of the brand ALL THE TIME. THEY are the true pusillanimous reprobates! Gene's biggest crime was that he was too conservative but come on...think of all the downgrades and PT adjustments that occurred after the iPhone 5S was introduced. Those are the guys who should be torched! Useless...they are all useless I tell ya! +1000 .... Gene has been a friend to Apple .... Misek, Gilles and Rabitsky deserve your wrath ... throw Adami and basically the entire "Fast Money" crowd in there too ! Edit: Misspelled Rabitsky .... don't care ... screw him.
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SomeJuan
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Taking a nap…
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Post by SomeJuan on Sept 23, 2013 15:17:04 GMT -8
Why is everyone picking on Gene Munster? He was wrong on estimates but he has been an AAPL bull all along. He had faith in the company but has gotten burned so he erred to the side of being conservative. If you want to torch someone and hand them over to the rioting villagers, try Peter Misek or Colin Gilles or a myriad of other idiots that are not only consistently wrong but then go on to speak negatively of the brand ALL THE TIME. THEY are the true pusillanimous reprobates! Gene's biggest crime was that he was too conservative but come on...think of all the downgrades and PT adjustments that occurred after the iPhone 5S was introduced. Those are the guys who should be torched! Useless...they are all useless I tell ya! It makes one wonder, who is it, that listens to these folks, and why? And what value do they bring to the table for their respective firms. I know a bunch of rich folks that listen to none of them.
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Post by rickag on Sept 23, 2013 15:29:01 GMT -8
Yikes, made me use the dictionary.
Well done phoebear611, need to raise my vocabulary.
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Post by macoz on Sept 23, 2013 15:31:45 GMT -8
Apple is proving it is a responsible company. No more significant surprises (upside or downside) in the future. Apple will pre-announce any significant changes. I am confident another pre-announcement will be made before the release of the 4Q results. Between 22 Sept to 28 Sept Apple can easily sell another 2 million iPhones.
Apple now has the luxury of whether to take more sales into the 4Q or into 1QFY2014. We know there is a significant number of 5s on back order. Assuming a 3 day delivery time for sales to US and Europe and a 1 day delivery time to HK, Japan and China Apple can defer sales to 1Q by fulfilling the back orders from the US and Europe first. Conversely Apple can boost sales in the 4Q before fulfilling the orders from HK, Japan and China first.
What will Apple do? Only they know. All we can do is speculate and just relax and be a long shareholder.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 15:47:21 GMT -8
You realize you're extrapolating from 2-3M of channel fill with the 5c. THIS is the reason behind the 9M, an aberration because the 4s was already in the channel September 2012. Apple reports the number and I extrapolate using historical relationships. The 80 Million number is actually greatly reduced from historical comparisons. You don't want to know what the pure relationship result is.
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coma
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Post by coma on Sept 23, 2013 16:23:02 GMT -8
Yikes, made me use the dictionary. Well done phoebear611, need to raise my vocabulary. I too had to use the dictionary as I don't use such obscure words in everyday conversation. . . . and I am always looking for the thumbs up button for such occasions as rickag posted.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 16:27:29 GMT -8
80M iPhones in fiscal Q1? I didn't just hear that did I?
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Post by jmolloy on Sept 23, 2013 16:58:33 GMT -8
Munster's moronic musings gaining traction at Business Insider… Quelle Surprise...
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