|
Post by phoebear611 on Sept 23, 2013 17:13:35 GMT -8
Yikes, made me use the dictionary. Well done phoebear611, need to raise my vocabulary. I too had to use the dictionary as I don't use such obscure words in everyday conversation. . . . and I am always looking for the thumbs up button for such occasions as rickag posted. Funny story about those words....I had a client early in my career who was seemingly always on the "right" side of a trade and when I was about to trade my third or fourth time with him - my trader who was a saavy Brit started yelling at me and called my client a "pusillanimous reprobate." I turned and found several sales people reaching for their dictionaries to look it up...(we didn't have internet at the time...I'm dating myself) ... it was pretty funny. We did the trade -- my client was definitely a shady character - the Brit trader on the other hand, was "brilliant."
|
|
SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
|
Post by SomeJuan on Sept 23, 2013 17:15:55 GMT -8
BI is a hit whore, next musing please.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Sept 23, 2013 17:16:57 GMT -8
Munster's moronic musings gaining traction at Business Insider… Quelle Surprise... Jay Yarow and Blodget are pumping it. Did AAPL suddenly change the definition of a sale? It is irrelevant that there were 2 products this time. Isn't the meaning the same? Do they really think the company is using smoke and mirrors? Where does it all end...ugh.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 17:22:22 GMT -8
actually i'm with sponge here. it's a minor minor issue, but my top button does rattle slightly (there is some play in it from side-to-side). i'm sure it will disappear with a case, but it is noticeable when i touch it. i googled it earlier and it seems it was somewhat common on the 5 as well. Ok. I checked the iPhones on display of the 5s and they all have a bit of a wiggle to the top button. Didn't notice any rattle -- how does that manifest itself, singing loud in the shower off key? You're right though, cases remove the issue and I PREFER wearing protection (the new leather case Apple makes is an excellent value and feels great in the hand).
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Sept 23, 2013 17:23:10 GMT -8
This is basically what BI is stating re Munster's comments: "Munster believes 3.5 million iPhone 5Cs accounted for channel fill and that the real iPhone sales number for Apple was 5.5 million. He says Apple sold a lot of iPhone 5Cs to partners who did not sell the 5C to consumers."
I am not attaching the link - that is the premise of the article.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 17:28:04 GMT -8
This is basically what BI is stating re Munster's comments: "Munster believes 3.5 million iPhone 5Cs accounted for channel fill and that the real iPhone sales number for Apple was 5.5 million. He says Apple sold a lot of iPhone 5Cs to partners who did not sell the 5C to consumers." I am not attaching the link - that is premise of the article If Gene can overlook the 5c channel fill, why should we have any confidence in his 3.5M number? In his attempts to shore up his shaky reputation of late, he's not helping the bull case, not that it will make any difference.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 17:30:16 GMT -8
Mercel, I think you'll agree with a technical trader today - Redler's calling for Munster to get his walking papers.
Munster's channel-stuffing-esque theory flies right out the window when a certain megacarrier inevitably decides it's time to launch the iPhone 5C + 5S on its network.
|
|
|
Post by cbingle on Sept 23, 2013 17:35:57 GMT -8
Gene needs to find his life's work, as Chuck Noll used to say. Cause he is just now guessing his way through each day. Safe to say, he may have been historically correct (or close), for all the wrong reasons. Now he is floundering without a foundation of understanding.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 17:40:50 GMT -8
80M iPhones in fiscal Q1? I didn't just hear that did I? Let me be very clear on this, I am NOT calling 80 Million. I said, if 1st Weekend sales history holds true to its past, then 9 Million units foretells 80 Million during FQ1/2014. For the record, until we get Apple's FQ1/2014 Guidance I am modeling 64 Million units.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 17:43:28 GMT -8
I'm watching the Munster video on Bloomberg. Let's put it this way - it's not worth your time, and my pre-watch "channel-stuffing-esque" hypothesis was, depressingly, right on the friggin' money.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 17:45:46 GMT -8
Mercel, I think you'll agree with a technical trader today - Redler's calling for Munster to get his walking papers. Munster's channel-stuffing-esque theory flies right out the window when a certain megacarrier inevitably decides it's time to launch the iPhone 5C + 5S on its network. I like Gene, but yeah, he's hit a rough patch. I read recently that he really doesn't have much in the way of credentials to do what he's doing. The bar is low, and he's merely living down to it. It doesn't surprise me. Now, I'd be surprised if half of the analysts can read a balance sheet, much less a 10-K.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 17:56:18 GMT -8
You can learn, you can adapt. Gene hasn't. Unfortunate.
Time to change the subject. I _like_ AAPL's prospects going into earnings! Absent some crazy shift, 31M iPhones is looking more and more like the low-end base case.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 17:57:23 GMT -8
Now, Apple has set a very high bar for itself next year, but all they have to do is have more iPhones available on launch weekend next year and they'll be fine, unless we get two new iPhones again next year (4" and 5" perhaps). I had some thoughts on what Apple could do next year, but I'm not going to open that can of worms, period.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Sept 23, 2013 18:00:05 GMT -8
This is basically what BI is stating re Munster's comments: "Munster believes 3.5 million iPhone 5Cs accounted for channel fill and that the real iPhone sales number for Apple was 5.5 million. He says Apple sold a lot of iPhone 5Cs to partners who did not sell the 5C to consumers." I am not attaching the link - that is premise of the article If Gene can overlook the 5c channel fill, why should we have any confidence in his 3.5M number? In his attempts to shore up his shaky reputation of late, he's not helping the bull case, not that it will make any difference. EXACTLY! Furthermore, isn't it convenient that the number sold then ends up being Gene's number! This is stupid already. Always some sort of controversy...ugh.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Sept 23, 2013 18:02:35 GMT -8
Question for anyone..is the October 15th date for iPads just rumor or was it announced somewhere? I don't recall seeing it. Was that date just picked out of the air or is there some significance?
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Sept 23, 2013 18:02:38 GMT -8
I'm watching the Munster video on Bloomberg. Let's put it this way - it's not worth your time, and my pre-watch "channel-stuffing-esque" hypothesis was, depressingly, right on the friggin' money. I completely Agree with my fellow MINNESOTAN Gene Munster!!! You can watch it below. www.bloomberg.com/video/iphone-has-legs-after-9m-unit-debut-munster-mtxyzWY2TaeLVuQlO2wuBw.html1) Almost every 5S was Sold AND activated. There were very few 5S sitting on a carrier's shelf Monday morning. 2) There were very few 5C Sold AND activated. There were many 5C sitting on a carrier's shelves Monday morning. This what we call channel inventory. Channel inventory is mentioned in every earnings call transcript where an analyst asks OPPIE why they did not sell as many iPads or iPhones. My last 10 posts today cover this subject in detail. Even Horace's chart shows it. (just click on my name in the avatar box and a page will appear so you can read my last 10 posts)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 18:07:33 GMT -8
Apple is proving it is a responsible company. No more significant surprises (upside or downside) in the future. Apple will pre-announce any significant changes. I am confident another pre-announcement will be made before the release of the 4Q results. Between 22 Sept to 28 Sept Apple can easily sell another 2 million iPhones.Average daily sales volume during F2013 will be ~417,000. Including today, Apple will easily sell/deliver 2.5 Million iPhones. More likely 5 Million.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 18:10:25 GMT -8
In that case, AAPL _should_ correct a whole bunch tomorrow, because it has no business being up so much with so much channel fill.
Bear in mind, 5C may have had a better reception elsewhere in the world. Here's a possible tell - if 5C is really juicing the numbers, Apple could report that iPhone is within the target range of channel inventory and/or Q1 guidance will be affected because of it.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Sept 23, 2013 18:12:55 GMT -8
Twitter conversation just now....boy this is getting comical:
Walter Piecyk Yes. All 9 million iPhones will be recognized as revenue this quarter. Those suggesting otherwise are wrong.
Jay Yarow @jyarow who is suggesting otherwise?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 18:14:51 GMT -8
Question for anyone..is the October 15th date for iPads just rumor or was it announced somewhere? I don't recall seeing it. Was that date just picked out of the air or is there some significance? Rumor.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 18:16:23 GMT -8
Twitter conversation just now....boy this is getting comical: Walter Piecyk Yes. All 9 million iPhones will be recognized as revenue this quarter. Those suggesting otherwise are wrong. Jay Yarow @jyarow who is suggesting otherwise? Yes. 9M iPhones "sold" will count. This figure does NOT include the 5c models in Apple's inventory, however.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 18:21:14 GMT -8
Not that well-circulated a rumor yet, either. That should change very soon if Apple has an October update in the works.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 23, 2013 18:22:25 GMT -8
Nothing in Apple's own retail inventory counts, of course. But with only 400ish stores, that's not likely to be a giant number of units. And it's highly doubtful any new iPhone sits on a Foxconn shelf for long.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 18:28:43 GMT -8
I completely Agree with my fellow MINNESOTAN Gene Munster!!! All he had to do was read AFB2 when it was first speculated channel fill might juice the numbers. I just underestimated the degree to which it occurred, given Apple's normally conservative practices. As I said at the time, Samsung may get away with reporting shipments, but Apple is at least reporting GAAP sales numbers.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 18:33:55 GMT -8
In that case, AAPL _should_ correct a whole bunch tomorrow, because it has no business being up so much with so much channel fill. Bear in mind, 5C may have had a better reception elsewhere in the world. Here's a possible tell - if 5C is really juicing the numbers, Apple could report that iPhone is within the target range of channel inventory and/or Q1 guidance will be affected because of it. I never thought of the 5C as a serious western demographic iPhone. I saw/see it as a second (lower cost) iPhone for the world's largest carrier, China Mobile, when it goes live. When China Mobile goes live you will see significant channel fill (740,000,000 subscribers). I wouldn't be surprised if it were upwards of 3 Million units over a 2 month period.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2013 19:08:06 GMT -8
I think the 5c will do much better than the old 5 would have done on its own; It's very viable as an alternative to the 5s. Hell, I'm tempted to buy one as a second phone. The 5s is consuming all the oxygen because it's really the new one with the sexy features.
However, it could play out like the tortoise and the hare....
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Sept 23, 2013 20:47:26 GMT -8
That's a damn good question for Investor Relations! I should ask! That aside, channel inventory increase is related to sell-in, right Mercel? After all, Apple reports sell-in numbers for GAAP purposes each quarter (though the sell-through data is a huge help). BEST avatar, a4k. Best. Best. Best. ;D That avatar is actually a pic of my favorite poster: Spongie Too funny. I am actually losing weight. ;D
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 23, 2013 21:22:29 GMT -8
Well, I saw my first two 5c's on the streets of Rome yesterday. Two beautiful fashionable young ladies ( Mercel, you should have been here..) one with a yellow version, one green. They looked fantastic and the phones looked fantastic...needless to say, colors all worked well with attire.
I could peek over their shoulders and see ios7 t work...
Head home today. Glad everyone is having a good couple of days here on AFB2. Lets keep it going!
Red in Roma
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Sept 23, 2013 22:03:50 GMT -8
Well, I saw my first two 5c's on the streets of Rome yesterday. Two beautiful fashionable young ladies ( Mercel, you should have been here..) one with a yellow version, one green. They looked fantastic and the phones looked fantastic...needless to say, colors all worked well with attire. I could peek over their shoulders and see ios7 t work... Head home today. Glad everyone is having a good couple of days here on AFB2. Lets keep it going! Red in Roma A colleague at work was very excited to show me her new Blue 5C. She was showing it to everyone. Verizon gave her $100 for 8 gig iPhone 4. These trade in programs will be gold mines for Apple.
|
|
|
Post by yellowhandman on Sept 23, 2013 23:19:03 GMT -8
RBC raises price target from $525 to $550. Hopefully a couple more upgrades at least this week.
|
|