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Post by mbeauch on Oct 5, 2012 11:49:11 GMT -8
From Jason Schwarz“Here’s a copy of my latest public article: Which Stock to Own? Apple or Google? In other words, Google’s revenue comes from something we all try to avoid while 96% of Apple’s revenue comes from something we’re willing to wait in line for. Quote of the year. Agree, Jason always seems to be on top of things. One of my favorites even though he called for this drop, he was right. Saved his followers a lot of money at the bare minimum, will make them even more when he tells them to get back in.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 5, 2012 11:59:31 GMT -8
So we're not going to hold 665. Did we break the trendline? Are we back in a downtrend? Is this is repeat of April 10? And what about the H&S?
Or, do the hedgies just want our shares at a cheap price for the slingshot?
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Post by highway2heel on Oct 5, 2012 12:01:05 GMT -8
By no means am I trying to espouse this as investment advice, but I have a friend at Morgan Stanley (no, he's not managing a cent of my money) who admitted to me today that he's starting to recommend buying AAPL for his clients.
By Monday, we're 26 days removed from the product release...take that FWIW if you've seen the historic trends and behavior around earnings season and product releases...
Me? I'm buying...and glad I had some powder dry to do so.....normally I'm the knucklehead who's already fully invested.....
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 5, 2012 12:04:21 GMT -8
Spent the last of my cash buying 10 Oct 12 705 @ 1.45. I am all in - mostly Apr 13 600 and 700 and Jan 14 630 with a very small Oct 12 655 and 705 bet. Hunting for the rally monkey! Edited to add pic
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Post by joel90069 on Oct 5, 2012 12:06:10 GMT -8
My gut says there were lots of EO's on the grassy knoll and we're riding in the motorcade. I'm hoping things change next week... but what do I know?
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 5, 2012 12:09:58 GMT -8
From Jason Schwarz“Here’s a copy of my latest public article: Which Stock to Own? Apple or Google? In other words, Google’s revenue comes from something we all try to avoid while 96% of Apple’s revenue comes from something we’re willing to wait in line for. Quote of the year. I hate the expression, but Schwarz just "gets it." Anyone have a link to this BTW? Always post links, s'il te plait. Different title, but same article www.thestreet.com/comment/investing/11729486.html
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Post by davidcv100 on Oct 5, 2012 12:10:29 GMT -8
Spent the last of my cash buying 10 Oct 12 705 @ 1.45. I am all in - mostly Apr 13 600 and 700 and Jan 14 630 with a very small Oct 12 655 and 705 bet. Hunting for the rally monkey! Added a small amount of Feb 650s today
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Post by blueox on Oct 5, 2012 12:14:29 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 12:17:35 GMT -8
Bought 1 share @ market for Steve.
(And other stuff for me.)
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 5, 2012 12:21:07 GMT -8
Bought 1 share @ market for Steve. (And other stuff for me.) Sniff. Don't have enough cash to buy one tribute share in any account or maybe it will be
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Post by prazan on Oct 5, 2012 12:22:17 GMT -8
I also couldn't stop from buying shares today, betting (hoping, praying) that the 50 day would hold. The final hour didn't fill me with confidence.
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 5, 2012 12:24:08 GMT -8
Articles like this make me think we will see an further acceleration of manufacturing jobs back to the US. Maybe not Apple, but others.
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Post by roni on Oct 5, 2012 12:25:29 GMT -8
Came reasonably close to the closing price on two of three buys today, the other not so much, but could have been worse $1.55 higher tha the close on an April $700 buy.
Have. Good weekend everyone
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 5, 2012 12:34:13 GMT -8
Agree, Jason always seems to be on top of things. One of my favorites even though he called for this drop, he was right. Saved his followers a lot of money at the bare minimum, will make them even more when he tells them to get back in. He told his followers of the drop on 8-21-12 (two Fridays ago). However, this past week, he got back in after the Red Dog Reversal on Tuesday, and had to ride this 20 point drop down with 55% of his cash invested. One of his more memorable quotes in today's edition of his update: "I can handle a low portfolio when AAPL is near a low, but I cannot handle a low portfolio when AAPL is near a high."
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 5, 2012 12:47:06 GMT -8
So we're not going to hold 665. Did we break the trendline? Are we back in a downtrend? Is this is repeat of April 10? And what about the H&S? Or, do the hedgies just want our shares at a cheap price for the slingshot? No. Yes. Since 705. Maybe. In play. Always.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2012 12:47:16 GMT -8
iPad Mini won't have much of an impact for a while in my opinion. It should add roughly $2.00 in EPS in its first year though. It won't be until everyone sees just how huge the Mini (and overall) iPad market will be before the value of it is reflected in the stock price. If aapl has not been able to roll out the ipod refresh yet, doesn't that give you concern about supplies for ipad mini? There isn't going to be an iPad mini.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 5, 2012 12:51:50 GMT -8
If aapl has not been able to roll out the ipod refresh yet, doesn't that give you concern about supplies for ipad mini? There isn't going to be an iPad mini. Haha. Best joke of the day.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2012 12:52:23 GMT -8
iPod is whatever. A "mere" $1B or so in quarterly revenue until the holiday season. Not directed at you, Mav. For any other Company, the iPod would be a MAJOR contributor to revenue. For Apple it is an entry point to the iTunes ecosystem and beyond. Concerns about iPod updates/revenue are misplaced.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 5, 2012 12:56:18 GMT -8
They pulled out the big guns today. I am really disgusted that the RSI for AAPL is still in the 40's after today's drop. We have formed the right shoulder and broken the neck. Not much good to see. Totally disheartening.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2012 13:03:05 GMT -8
Stutterers should be treated as you would want to be treated, primarily not making a big deal about it, no way or the other. At the same time stutterers should not put themselves in a position where they cannot deliver a time constrained message, just as someone without command of the English language shouldn't address an English only audience. Frankly I suspect CNBC knew of the speaker's speech pattern/difficulty and went ahead anyway. That way CNBC looks like it presents both sides without bias, while one side isn't really being presented at all. Makes the crap they spew look better. There is no disrespect in expecting a communicator to be able to communicate.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 5, 2012 13:07:03 GMT -8
They pulled out the big guns today. I am really disgusted that the RSI for AAPL is still in the 40's after today's drop. We have formed the right shoulder and broken the neck. Not much good to see. Totally disheartening. Where is the next level assuming 650 doesn't hold?
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Post by Rupert on Oct 5, 2012 13:12:09 GMT -8
Agree, Jason always seems to be on top of things. One of my favorites even though he called for this drop, he was right. Saved his followers a lot of money at the bare minimum, will make them even more when he tells them to get back in. For what it's worth, he rolled some Jan options into Nov. 640 and now has Jan & Nov options. 55% in and 45% cash. Not sure of exact prices, since I'm working off my iPhone, remotely.
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Post by rosie on Oct 5, 2012 13:13:18 GMT -8
Having spent a lot of years in special ed I have to tell you that the excitement of going from non verbal to verbalization or from speech impairments of any kind to speech that communicates is a very exciting experience for everyone, but most of all for the person who can now share thoughts and feelings out loud . Sometimes it takes years to get to that point and any word uttered that can be comprehended by friends, families, and support systems is a huge thing. But I'm sure you're all aware of that and if the person who didn't speak as fast as many of us do deserves a bit of extra admiration and respect.
And if the speedy mind of the investor with the slower speech got him in a great financial position I think that is an excellent human interest story.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2012 13:18:46 GMT -8
From Jason Schwarz“Here’s a copy of my latest public article: Which Stock to Own? Apple or Google?With both stocks trading near all time highs, the Apple vs. Google debate has become Wall Street’s latest obsession. Which stock has a brighter future? Which company will produce the next hit product? Discovering a sense of conviction within the context of this debate can lead to serious wealth creation if one invests correctly. At EconomicTiming.com we’ve demonstrated what can happen when an investor is in tune with a market leading stock like Apple. That being said, we know there will come a time when Apple’s tenure as leader of the pack will end. Has that moment arrived? Is it time to abandon Apple in favor of Google? Let’s consider the following five elements: 1- Lines. I’m still waiting to see a line for an Android phone. Apple’s ability to initiate global pandemonium is unparalleled. Every Apple store, no matter its geographical location, experienced long lines and shortages for the iPhone 5. The lines and delays will remain one month after launch and might even extend into the holidays. These consumers aren’t a group of crazed kids lined up for the latest Harry Potter movie. Apple lines are filled with successful businesspeople who can’t wait to get their hands on the best consumer product in the world. No competitor can generate consumer demand like Apple. 2- Clicks. I don’t click on online ads. Ever. I don’t know anybody who clicks on online ads. When I watch television, I use Dish’s hopper to skip every commercial I can. According to a recent Ad Age study I’m not alone. Less than 1% of people click on digital ads. We avoid them like the plague. So how did Google earn $2.8 billion last quarter? In their own words it was because of ‘refinements to the company’s Internet search technology that lured more Web surfers to click on revenue-producing ads.‘ Do you want to know what that really means? It means they became more sophisticated at tricking users. By making the ‘close x‘ button even smaller it increases the number of accidental clicks. By placing ads over text it increases the number of accidental clicks. By relaxing ethical standards of the software it can increase the number of fraudulent clicks by greedy websites and competitors looking to drive up the cost for advertisers. I have been suckered into clicking on ads because of their placement more times than I can count. It’s even worse when I’m web browsing on my mobile device. Google has become a master at leveraging the inefficiency of fat finger. 96% of Google’s revenue come from advertising. In other words, Google’s revenue comes from something we all try to avoid while 96% of Apple’s revenue comes from something we’re willing to wait in line for. As Google’s price per click rate drops because of confirmed click fraud, Apple maintains premium pricing power because its products are best on planet. Inside the bowels of Google and Facebook they’re asking themselves how much longer the pay per click honeymoon will last. In a recent report issued by Trademob it was revealed that at least 40% of mobile ad clicks are fraudulent or accidental. It’s no wonder that both Facebook and Google are trying so desperately to expand their business models. The Apple envy is apparent with each and every attempt to launch competing products. 3- Innovation. Jim Dalrymple at LoopInsight has done a great job of putting the Samsung/Apple patent case into proper perspective. Among the multitude of great posts, my favorite is the 31 second clip of Steve Jobs at the iPhone introduction in which he concisely lays the foundation of Apple’s homegrown innovation. Most people have forgotten that a keyboard or stylus were the technologies of choice prior to Apple’s multi-touch. Apple changed the entire industry. Purchasing a Samsung Galaxy and its stolen IP is in essence choosing South Korean copycats over America’s finest. If you want American innovation, buy Apple. Android is a free version of Apple’s innovation that originated during Eric Schmidt’s time as one of Apple’s board of directors. He saw where Apple was about to take the industry and knew that Google would be a victim unless they copied Apple’s game plan. Unfortunately for Google investors, Android is a zero margin product with a singular purpose of generating mobile ad clicks. Being two steps behind and unable to catch up has become Google’s identity. As soon as an alternative ad platform is developed to eliminate the fraud of clicks, Google will be left naked.  4- Mobile. The Apple ecosystem is the gold mine of technology. In a mind blowing report released two weeks ago, Onswipe claims that the iPad accounts for 98.1% of all mobile tablet browsing. Google’s recent stock action is performing as if it was added into the Apple ecosystem, not taken out. Losing the native app for maps and youtube in iOS6 is a major blow to Google’s mobile future. The data that they had access to via Google maps on iPhone’s was invaluable. On September 12th GOOG stock was priced at $680, the day of the iPhone 5 event. Since that time, the stock has risen $88. Such a big run in the aftermath of getting booted from Apple’s ecosystem looks more like a short covering rally than anything else. As apps continue the trend of replacing websites, Google advertising will suffer. I’ll repeat, you’d rather be getting in the Apple ecosystem than getting out. Google’s mobile future is dependent upon Android and fat fingers. Apple’s mobile future is dependent upon the profits of iPhone, iPad, and iPad mini sales. 5-China. I’d rather be experiencing growth in China than be out of China. Another win for Apple. Google has no excuse for not staying in China. The evolution of open news flow will take time and Google should be part of it. Instead, they quit. Lines, clicks, innovation, mobile, and China. Apple beats Google 5-0. The case is closed.” Thanks for posting the article Rupert. I saw references to it, but no links. Jason's commentary is right inline with Zaky's. After being intimately involved in the market for 8+ years, there is no way I'd trust my money to WS.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 5, 2012 13:23:28 GMT -8
They pulled out the big guns today. I am really disgusted that the RSI for AAPL is still in the 40's after today's drop. We have formed the right shoulder and broken the neck. Not much good to see. Totally disheartening. Where is the next level assuming 650 doesn't hold? There are so many it is hard to post all. 644 is our April high that we broke above. Don't think that one much matters. As bad as today was, the EO's know there is more blood to be had. The weekly gamblers will load up again and try again. I knew the weekly options were a bad idea. Grrrrrrrrrrr Outlaw them now dang it!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 5, 2012 13:37:05 GMT -8
Agree, Jason always seems to be on top of things. One of my favorites even though he called for this drop, he was right. Saved his followers a lot of money at the bare minimum, will make them even more when he tells them to get back in. For what it's worth, he rolled some Jan options into Nov. 640 and now has Jan & Nov options. 55% in and 45% cash. Not sure of exact prices, since I'm working off my iPhone, remotely. He did that for a bigger bang for the buck, which works ways both up and down. So apparently, whatever technicals he's looking at says that this downtrend is short-lived, and we will be back up in the next few weeks.
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Post by mtjs on Oct 5, 2012 13:38:20 GMT -8
There isn't going to be an iPad mini. Haha. Best joke of the day. No one knows. You can act like you know, but it is a belief, not a knowledge. Time will tell. Some believe (like I) there won't be one. Other believe that there will be one. Yet we don't know.
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Post by Rupert on Oct 5, 2012 13:43:40 GMT -8
From Jason Schwarz“Here’s a copy of my latest public article: Which Stock to Own? Apple or Google?With both stocks trading near all time highs, the Apple vs. Google debate has become Wall Street’s latest obsession. Which stock has a brighter future? Which company will produce the next hit product? Discovering a sense of conviction within the context of this debate can lead to serious wealth creation if one invests correctly. At EconomicTiming.com we’ve demonstrated what can happen when an investor is in tune with a market leading stock like Apple. That being said, we know there will come a time when Apple’s tenure as leader of the pack will end. Has that moment arrived? Is it time to abandon Apple in favor of Google? Let’s consider the following five elements: 1- Lines. I’m still waiting to see a line for an Android phone. Apple’s ability to initiate global pandemonium is unparalleled. Every Apple store, no matter its geographical location, experienced long lines and shortages for the iPhone 5. The lines and delays will remain one month after launch and might even extend into the holidays. These consumers aren’t a group of crazed kids lined up for the latest Harry Potter movie. Apple lines are filled with successful businesspeople who can’t wait to get their hands on the best consumer product in the world. No competitor can generate consumer demand like Apple. 2- Clicks. I don’t click on online ads. Ever. I don’t know anybody who clicks on online ads. When I watch television, I use Dish’s hopper to skip every commercial I can. According to a recent Ad Age study I’m not alone. Less than 1% of people click on digital ads. We avoid them like the plague. So how did Google earn $2.8 billion last quarter? In their own words it was because of ‘refinements to the company’s Internet search technology that lured more Web surfers to click on revenue-producing ads.‘ Do you want to know what that really means? It means they became more sophisticated at tricking users. By making the ‘close x‘ button even smaller it increases the number of accidental clicks. By placing ads over text it increases the number of accidental clicks. By relaxing ethical standards of the software it can increase the number of fraudulent clicks by greedy websites and competitors looking to drive up the cost for advertisers. I have been suckered into clicking on ads because of their placement more times than I can count. It’s even worse when I’m web browsing on my mobile device. Google has become a master at leveraging the inefficiency of fat finger. 96% of Google’s revenue come from advertising. In other words, Google’s revenue comes from something we all try to avoid while 96% of Apple’s revenue comes from something we’re willing to wait in line for. As Google’s price per click rate drops because of confirmed click fraud, Apple maintains premium pricing power because its products are best on planet. Inside the bowels of Google and Facebook they’re asking themselves how much longer the pay per click honeymoon will last. In a recent report issued by Trademob it was revealed that at least 40% of mobile ad clicks are fraudulent or accidental. It’s no wonder that both Facebook and Google are trying so desperately to expand their business models. The Apple envy is apparent with each and every attempt to launch competing products. 3- Innovation. Jim Dalrymple at LoopInsight has done a great job of putting the Samsung/Apple patent case into proper perspective. Among the multitude of great posts, my favorite is the 31 second clip of Steve Jobs at the iPhone introduction in which he concisely lays the foundation of Apple’s homegrown innovation. Most people have forgotten that a keyboard or stylus were the technologies of choice prior to Apple’s multi-touch. Apple changed the entire industry. Purchasing a Samsung Galaxy and its stolen IP is in essence choosing South Korean copycats over America’s finest. If you want American innovation, buy Apple. Android is a free version of Apple’s innovation that originated during Eric Schmidt’s time as one of Apple’s board of directors. He saw where Apple was about to take the industry and knew that Google would be a victim unless they copied Apple’s game plan. Unfortunately for Google investors, Android is a zero margin product with a singular purpose of generating mobile ad clicks. Being two steps behind and unable to catch up has become Google’s identity. As soon as an alternative ad platform is developed to eliminate the fraud of clicks, Google will be left naked.  4- Mobile. The Apple ecosystem is the gold mine of technology. In a mind blowing report released two weeks ago, Onswipe claims that the iPad accounts for 98.1% of all mobile tablet browsing. Google’s recent stock action is performing as if it was added into the Apple ecosystem, not taken out. Losing the native app for maps and youtube in iOS6 is a major blow to Google’s mobile future. The data that they had access to via Google maps on iPhone’s was invaluable. On September 12th GOOG stock was priced at $680, the day of the iPhone 5 event. Since that time, the stock has risen $88. Such a big run in the aftermath of getting booted from Apple’s ecosystem looks more like a short covering rally than anything else. As apps continue the trend of replacing websites, Google advertising will suffer. I’ll repeat, you’d rather be getting in the Apple ecosystem than getting out. Google’s mobile future is dependent upon Android and fat fingers. Apple’s mobile future is dependent upon the profits of iPhone, iPad, and iPad mini sales. 5-China. I’d rather be experiencing growth in China than be out of China. Another win for Apple. Google has no excuse for not staying in China. The evolution of open news flow will take time and Google should be part of it. Instead, they quit. Lines, clicks, innovation, mobile, and China. Apple beats Google 5-0. The case is closed.” Thanks for posting the article Rupert. I saw references to it, but no links. Jason's commentary is right inline with Zaky's. After being intimately involved in the market for 8+ years, there is no way I'd trust my money to WS. Gregg, from his newsletter this afternoon. No links as of then.
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Post by Rupert on Oct 5, 2012 13:49:30 GMT -8
For what it's worth, he rolled some Jan options into Nov. 640 and now has Jan & Nov options. 55% in and 45% cash. Not sure of exact prices, since I'm working off my iPhone, remotely. He did that for a bigger bang for the buck, which works ways both up and down. So apparently, whatever technicals he's looking at says that this downtrend is short-lived, and we will be back up in the next few weeks. Banking heavily on EO manipulation, invites for iPad mini, run-up to iPad mini event and of course run-up to earnings.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 5, 2012 13:51:41 GMT -8
Articles like this make me think we will see an further acceleration of manufacturing jobs back to the US. Maybe not Apple, but others. Not unless it is robots, manufactured to replace the Foxconn workers. They'll be sorry China Labor Watch "helped" them when they are back behind a plow. Too bad he's a cynical, sarcastic ass. Makes it hard to have any sympathy or respect for him. I agree, and I'm a sarcastic Libertarian. Stossel doesn't exactly win hearts and minds. For those that do and are having a tough day I am sincerely sorry. For me, I am so glad I don't play weekly's. I'm sorry for my own portfolio going down today, but I am not sorry when an arsonist gets his hands burned. Weekly calls are the fire that burns. Speaking of which, it will be interesting to see the final open interest numbers. I might be out before the OTM get wiped to zero. Can someone check around 6-7PST? Finally, a quote for some people here: Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose. -- Bill Gates.
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