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Post by tuffett on Jan 9, 2013 22:06:48 GMT -8
Don't take it personally. Anyone who disagrees with Gregg is threatened to be put on his ignore list or accused of being intellectually/analytically inferior. Yeahhhh, maybe. I enjoy explaining my positions/thoughts as long as the questioner listens. I am not a patient person, and although I will give the eager my time, I don't suffer fools. Agreeing is not a prerequisite, although it eliminates a lot of problems ;D Don't get me wrong, you bring some great unique insight to this board. Like everyone else, though, you are sometimes wrong and people who disagreed with you have been right. I think it's important to acknowledge and understand all sides of a topic. There's little value to a board where everyone agrees with one another and has the same opinion. The key is being able to assert an opinion and back it up with relevant and logical information and/or assumptions. There are points to be made both in favour and against a low-cost iPhone for lower income nations. I don't you should classify somebody who thinks a low-cost iPhone is a good idea as a "fool", if that's what you meant.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 22:11:51 GMT -8
Not all who wander are lost. Lurking mostly. I said back in October that I didn't like the feel of the market/fiscal cliff/can't even remember the third. I haven't changed my mind entirely but it's starting to feel a LOT better. Loved the way the tax thing shook out and am even a bit bullish that the spending side may get some rational behavior as well. Since I'm here and haven't joined in the fray re: the iPhone number I might at well get in my 2cents. Remember Horace saying that iPhone production was doubling with each new iteration? I still believe that it may be happening. The new iPhone design (while clearly challenging) eliminated the need for the low speed/volume machining of the stainless antenna band if I'm not mistaken. (Pat's?) If that's true it would explain the early expansion into many more markets this go around. Meanwhile, Peter is free to give his low ball guidance hiding behind the difference between believing your ability to ramp to scale and knowing it. In short, I believe we'll have a repeat of last years holiday surprise. (followed shortly by the fudsters claiming an even larger coming demand fall off as consumers wait for the next generation) Hi Bill. For each of the last 4 Decembers iPhone unit sales doubled YoY. This year's most aggressive estimates reflect ~70% YoY growth, consensus (50 million) reflects 35% growth. I think we need to reconsider WHAT is too high? I'm at 56.78 million because that fits guidance vs actual.
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Post by BillH on Jan 9, 2013 22:18:59 GMT -8
Not all who wander are lost. Lurking mostly. I said back in October that I didn't like the feel of the market/fiscal cliff/can't even remember the third. I haven't changed my mind entirely but it's starting to feel a LOT better. Loved the way the tax thing shook out and am even a bit bullish that the spending side may get some rational behavior as well. Since I'm here and haven't joined in the fray re: the iPhone number I might at well get in my 2cents. Remember Horace saying that iPhone production was doubling with each new iteration? I still believe that it may be happening. The new iPhone design (while clearly challenging) eliminated the need for the low speed/volume machining of the stainless antenna band if I'm not mistaken. (Pat's?) If that's true it would explain the early expansion into many more markets this go around. Meanwhile, Peter is free to give his low ball guidance hiding behind the difference between believing your ability to ramp to scale and knowing it. In short, I believe we'll have a repeat of last years holiday surprise. (followed shortly by the fudsters claiming an even larger coming demand fall off as consumers wait for the next generation) Hi Bill. For each of the last 4 Decembers iPhone unit sales doubled YoY. This year's most aggressive estimates reflect ~70% YoY growth, consensus (50 million) reflects 35% growth. I think we need to reconsider WHAT is too high? I'm at 56.78 million because that fits guidance vs actual. Since my forecasting ability is nonexistent I'm willing to consider just about everything. My real point was that the folks that forecast 65 million aren't crazy and Peter's guidance often has been. Last couple of quarter (or is it a few now) have been rough on the independent forecaster I know...,but...,they're still batting about 700 vs. the Pro's 225. I'm sticking with the amateurs.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2013 22:22:06 GMT -8
Yeahhhh, maybe. I enjoy explaining my positions/thoughts as long as the questioner listens. I am not a patient person, and although I will give the eager my time, I don't suffer fools. Agreeing is not a prerequisite, although it eliminates a lot of problems ;D Don't get me wrong, you bring some great unique insight to this board. Like everyone else, though, you are sometimes wrong and people who disagreed with you have been right. I think it's important to acknowledge and understand all sides of a topic. There's little value to a board where everyone agrees with one another and has the same opinion. The key is being able to assert an opinion and back it up with relevant and logical information and/or assumptions. There are points to be made both in favour and against a low-cost iPhone for lower income nations. I don't you should classify somebody who thinks a low-cost iPhone is a good idea as a "fool", if that's what you meant. I do not subscribe to consensus by committee or compromise. Feel good attitudes like that are what has brought our economy /fiscal issues to the point they are. Gingrich was abrasive, but he was right to shut government down in order to stop proposed runaway spending. If Clinton's proposed spending had not been checked (in '94), there never would have been a budget surplus in fiscal 2000. Compromising what is right is making a pact with the devil.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 9, 2013 23:06:12 GMT -8
To me, I feel a lot like I did during 2008/2009 financial crisis. So you mean you're buying hand over fist? IF APPLE WERE TO LOWER ASP ON ITS TWO FLAGSHIP PRODUCTS (IN SEARCH OF MORE SHARE), THE MOVE WOULD DESTROY HTC, NOKIA, MOTOROLA, AND RIMM. Aren't those companies already (creatively) destroyed? I too classify this incessant clamouring from all of these characters who have never even operated a lemonade stand as total BS noise. Easy now, no politics in the intraday. Any reference to the President is off-topic. It makes quite a bit of sense. The MMs are set on destroying all calls prior to monthly OE. It's quite possible they may be aiming for everything 500 and above now that they smell blood. I dunno, I assume all writes are by MR's (Market Rapers), and that includes puts (actually I wrote 10 of those 525's). If one looks at 1/19, there are >31K puts @ 520 and 525. That's a big backstop. I tend to concur on this, assuming we don't already have a big run-up starting Monday.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jan 9, 2013 23:16:22 GMT -8
Note that Apple's competitors RAISED their prices to match Apple's their sales would come to a complete halt. That's because, no matter what the buyer of a competing product says, they are buying price, not value. That's what killed so many PC manufacturers. They innovated nothing, they differentiated nothing. The ONLY thing they had to compete with was price, and in the end the customer suffered. This is not entirely true. I'll give one example*. Some of the other smartphone makers, most notably Samsung, have taken advantage of a gap in Apple's product line, and that is the large-screen segment. The Samsung Note 2, for example, is specifically sought out by many buyers (including many who like to combine the functionality of a phone and a small tablet, and others that like very long battery life), and those many buyers willingly pay a substantial premium (>$700) for that product. * And this is one area in which I believe Apple is making a mistake and is paying for it by not participating in a specific and lucrative segment of the market.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 9, 2013 23:16:30 GMT -8
We know he liked to drive them, often without a license plate. Do we ever. "Park Different." The question is, where does an 800-lbs gorilla park?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 10, 2013 0:01:17 GMT -8
On top of intransigent non-iPhone-carrying carriers until they say "I give".
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 10, 2013 0:12:05 GMT -8
Oh, and about the Apple prepaid phone: Seems like Tim Cook is neither confirming nor denying. Good news is, Apple's looking into prepaid markets its own way, so it doesn't have to be "low-cost/cheap iPhone" at all: www.loopinsight.com/2011/02/28/report-apple-may-be-working-on-prepaid-iphone/I could've sworn I actually heard Tim Cook talk about this, can't remember if it was an earnings call or some analyst conference.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2013 2:37:59 GMT -8
Oh, and about the Apple prepaid phone: Seems like Tim Cook is neither confirming nor denying. Good news is, Apple's looking into prepaid markets its own way, so it doesn't have to be "low-cost/cheap iPhone" at all: www.loopinsight.com/2011/02/28/report-apple-may-be-working-on-prepaid-iphone/I could've sworn I actually heard Tim Cook talk about this, can't remember if it was an earnings call or some analyst conference. I remember him saying on a earnings call that prepaid in china as 90% Marketshare, and he said something to the effect that apple was was considering all options.
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