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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2013 9:44:19 GMT -8
Strong, strong numbers. If we use Verizon's typical split of global sales (9-13%) that's a total of 30M to 43M. Much likely closer to 30, but this is great news. I've never been concerned about North America though - its the rest of the world that troubles me. I'm in at 27.8 million with EPS at $7.75. 30.0 million increases EPS by 25¢. Everyday I feel more and more confident in my estimates. I am looking at 31 million.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 9:48:42 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 9:52:04 GMT -8
I'll believe it when Apple announces, and not before. Its a rumor for christ's sake. You can get a pretty good idea of upcoming product without waiting for Apple to officially announce them. Most of us had a good idea of the iPad and iPad Mini, for example. This was largely based on rumours - the evidence starts to mount as they pile up. With Apple's hiring spree of biometric/sensor/low power chip experts along with Tim Cook's comments, I'm 95% certain an iWatch is on the horizon, and don't need to wait for the announcement to believe it. A TV set is not so certain. Something will happen with TV based on Cook's comments, but at this point it's hard to determine if it's only an Apple TV software or a full panel to go along with it. In my gut I feel some sort of wrist device is on its way, and that it will be called an iWatch. But, I do all this to enhance my trading, ergo, I don't BELIEVE it until Tim says so.
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Post by rickag on Jul 18, 2013 10:00:31 GMT -8
Good to see green, but being the beat down pessimist I am, volume still seems weak. Maybe the Verizon numbers will wake up some of the big funds to goose up volume. Guidance, Grasshopper, Guidance. chirr -or- chirr chirr chirr chirr or the English translation guidance
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Post by rickag on Jul 18, 2013 10:18:04 GMT -8
LOD = $430.61 Previous close = $430.31 I hope 30¢ doesn't count as a gap. you know there are some people here, I won't say who, that think gaps are almost always filled edit: corrected LOD
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 10:22:47 GMT -8
Not trying to be a Debbie Downer on an up day, but I imagine Verizon marketing knew full well it had to move more iPhones to get a leg up on its commitment to Apple. Not sure how this filtered down to the retail floor, if it did. Perhaps the low cost iPhones this year did the trick -- any color on this from Verizon commentary?
But I would not use one data point (VZ #'s) as a proxy for overall iPhones sold in the June quarter. Sadly, the next major data point is AT&T in the U.S. market and they announce the same time as Apple next Tuesday.
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Post by Lstream on Jul 18, 2013 10:25:30 GMT -8
Perhaps the low cost iPhones this year did the trick -- any color on this from Verizon commentary? No - all I heard was the 51% iPhone number.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 10:26:30 GMT -8
Guidance will be very interesting but some here are betting too heavily on it IMO. Apple is not going to announce through guidance the launch date of the next iPhone. We may see a larger range of sales guidance, but don't expect Oppie to pre-announce new product next Tuesday, which is what some of you are suggesting.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2013 10:27:46 GMT -8
Monthly OE wins?
Anyway, encouraging data point. It's all about earnings.
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Post by rickag on Jul 18, 2013 10:30:27 GMT -8
Monthly OE wins? Anyway, encouraging data point. It's all about earnings. chirr -or- chirr chirr chirr chirr
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 10:41:21 GMT -8
Monthly OE wins? Anyway, encouraging data point. It's all about earnings. Yeah probably...but I have less heartburn with monthlies than those G**damn weeklies. Next week could be the green light the institutions have been waiting for. They've been in park for too long -- some of it is pure herd mentality.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 18, 2013 10:50:28 GMT -8
Mercel - no products will be announced next week but if apple is going to unveil and sell two new types of iPhones before quarter ends in sept - that fact will have to be reflected in the guidance provided.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 18, 2013 10:56:12 GMT -8
Mercel - no products will be announced next week but if apple is going to unveil and sell two new types of iPhones before quarter ends in sept - that fact will have to be reflected in the guidance provided. PLEASE correct me if I am wrong. APPLE NEVER PROVIDES GUIDANCE ON UNANNOUNCED NEW PRODUCTS.NEVER
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 10:56:59 GMT -8
Mercel - no products will be announced next week but if apple is going to unveil and sell two new types of iPhones before quarter ends in sept - that fact will have to be reflected in the guidance provided. I'm saying that guidance can reveal both new product and the timing of it and I don't believe Apple is going to make this "announcement" inside sales guidance. If we get a EPS outside of range next Tuesday (on the upper end), it will tell us that Apple's guidance is only that, not the holy grail. In other words, Apple is going to reserve upside beats but protect on the downside.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2013 10:57:27 GMT -8
Mercel, maybe next week Tuesday AH or Wednesday. When volume is lower than it's been but price action isn't horrible (not at all, actually), my WAG is the market is in full-on wait-and-see mode. Post-earnings is what you meant, not Monday, right?
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2013 11:00:24 GMT -8
For me the big story will be how the market reacts to goog numbers in an hour and how aapl will be impacted.
I think if they go up we go down tomorrow and vias vs.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2013 11:01:41 GMT -8
Mercel - no products will be announced next week but if apple is going to unveil and sell two new types of iPhones before quarter ends in sept - that fact will have to be reflected in the guidance provided. I'm saying that guidance can reveal both new product and the timing of it and I don't believe Apple is going to make this "announcement" inside sales guidance. If we get a EPS outside of range next Tuesday (on the upper end), it will tell us that Apple's guidance is only that, not the holy grail. In other words, Apple is going to reserve upside beats but protect on the downside. I think the three of us agree more than we think we do. IF Apple really plans to release a bunch of new iPhones in September, AND Oppenheimer's current methodology really _is_ a change from the past, then it will be impossible to fully hide any future product transitions from guidance. _Especially_ if the long-term goal of the new methodology is to reduce upside surprise and keep analysts focused on the top end of a range at most. I think both revs and EPS will just see wider ranges for quarters like these. And it'll be explained with "future product transitions", etc. as usual.
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 18, 2013 11:08:09 GMT -8
I'm saying that guidance can reveal both new product and the timing of it and I don't believe Apple is going to make this "announcement" inside sales guidance. If we get a EPS outside of range next Tuesday (on the upper end), it will tell us that Apple's guidance is only that, not the holy grail. In other words, Apple is going to reserve upside beats but protect on the downside. I think the three of us agree more than we think we do. IF Apple really plans to release a bunch of new iPhones in September, AND Oppenheimer's current methodology really _is_ a change from the past, then it will be impossible to fully hide any future product transitions from guidance. _Especially_ if the long-term goal of the new methodology is to reduce upside surprise and keep analysts focused on the top end of a range at most. I think both revs and EPS will just see wider ranges for quarters like these. And it'll be explained with "future product transitions", etc. as usual. Call me CRAZY, but I think Oppie "changed his current methodology" just to HIDE the forthcoming quarter's miss of the ANALyst's estimates.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2013 11:24:28 GMT -8
And what would be new about Apple "missing" consensus guidance, exactly?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 11:26:14 GMT -8
Guidance will be very interesting but some here are betting too heavily on it IMO. Apple is not going to announce through guidance the launch date of the next iPhone. We may see a larger range of sales guidance, but don't expect Oppie to pre-announce new product next Tuesday, which is what some of you are suggesting. Apple has never announced a launch when giving Guidance. What they do do is give "reasonable" expectations of Revenue. I'm going to be watching/listening to Guidance for indications that Apple EXPECTS YoY Revenue growth, and by what degree. Along those lines, looking back at how AAPL traded just before and immediately after April Earnings/Guidance, I see that (excepting three sharply down days) trading volume was flat to down. Then Apple exceeded consensus (albeit by a small degree), but they Guided LOWER Revenue and Earnings. AAPL traded up 7+% Friday before to Friday after. Volume nearly doubled. Until April Earnings AAPL was in free fall. Since then it has essentially traded flat (a definite improvement from the prior 7 months). Will AAPL trade up 7% again? That's tomorrow, and I don't know what is going to happen tomorrow. But AAPL, right now is priced for YoY declining Earnings (which we are going to get, and got in April) so the implications from good guidance (which I believe we are going to get) is positive. Now what happens to AAPL should management Guide YoY Revenue and Earnings growth? That is the question. Frankly, WS has been saying that AAPL is a second half story for quite some time. If WS believes that, and AAPL Guides positively for the beginning of that second half, then I think a 7% pop could be reasonably expected (although nobody can guarantee it).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 11:29:19 GMT -8
Mercel - no products will be announced next week but if apple is going to unveil and sell two new types of iPhones before quarter ends in sept - that fact will have to be reflected in the guidance provided. I'm saying that guidance can reveal both new product and the timing of it and I don't believe Apple is going to make this "announcement" inside sales guidance. If we get a EPS outside of range next Tuesday (on the upper end), it will tell us that Apple's guidance is only that, not the holy grail. In other words, Apple is going to reserve upside beats but protect on the downside. Yes, Yes and YES
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 11:30:51 GMT -8
Monthly OE wins? Anyway, encouraging data point. It's all about earnings. It's all about FUTURE earnings.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 11:34:14 GMT -8
Call me CRAZY, but I think Oppie "changed his current methodology" just to HIDE the forthcoming quarter's miss of the ANALyst's estimates. OK You're CRAZY. : )
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 18, 2013 11:35:50 GMT -8
Meanwhile, let's close about the 50 day today, please...
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2013 11:42:03 GMT -8
Meanwhile, let's close about the 50 day today, please... What is that number?
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Post by pauls on Jul 18, 2013 11:59:21 GMT -8
Regarding guidance-- I'm inclined to think that new product sales and transition will be included in the 'new' post-sandbag era, at least to some conservative degree. Otherwise, the whole exercise of coming in within a 'range' will be for naught, and we'll be back to crazy 'analysis'. I have no idea what will be said, only that I suspect the numbers will be somewhat reflective of reality and hopefully catalyst for upside.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2013 12:02:11 GMT -8
AAPL did finish above _a_ 50-day SMA (StockCharts has it at 431.46).
If AAPL trades +/- 10 from here to earnings, it'll be fine by me since earnings/guidance will set the tone anyway.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 12:05:47 GMT -8
Microsoft & Google both tanking in after hours after poor results.
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Post by po1nt on Jul 18, 2013 12:06:11 GMT -8
Glad I bought those Aug 900 GOOG puts before the close ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2013 12:06:55 GMT -8
Way to go, po1nt.
Aw, poor Google.
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