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Post by po1nt on Dec 23, 2013 9:13:44 GMT -8
All this CM stuff is great, but we still haven't gotten an earnings revision.... makes me wonder....
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Post by Lstream on Dec 23, 2013 9:17:16 GMT -8
All this CM stuff is great, but we still haven't gotten an earnings revision.... makes me wonder.... CM has no impact on this quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 9:20:04 GMT -8
All this CM stuff is great, but we still haven't gotten an earnings revision.... makes me wonder.... I really don't know if we will...we're just now getting into a timeframe where Apple has caught up on iPhone backorders. I would imagine that TC and PO knew almost exactly how many iPhones they could build in this quarter and realized that every single one of them would be sold or in channel inventory. Unless Apple was able to produce more than expected, I don't see a major earnings revision coming. Producing and selling this many iPhones in a quarter is not easy to do.
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 23, 2013 9:23:53 GMT -8
Aren't those all unknowns?
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Post by po1nt on Dec 23, 2013 9:41:40 GMT -8
All this CM stuff is great, but we still haven't gotten an earnings revision.... makes me wonder.... CM has no impact on this quarter. Wasn't really referring to that, but people are looking for a big earning beat on record iPhone, ipad and holiday sales, but if we fall within guidance, it definitely wont be a blowout. Of course I agree that next Q guidance will trump all.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 23, 2013 9:49:54 GMT -8
Aren't those all unknowns? There are some pundits who claim to know some of them. I don't know......
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Post by doublerainbow on Dec 23, 2013 9:52:55 GMT -8
omgoose, gonna have a good Christmas this year (myself and apple)!! yay!! (:
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 23, 2013 10:01:05 GMT -8
CM has no impact on this quarter. Wasn't really referring to that, but people are looking for a big earning beat on record iPhone, ipad and holiday sales, but if we fall within guidance, it definitely wont be a blowout. Of course I agree that next Q guidance will trump all. Actually, depending on what you consider a blowout, it could be done. I agree that if we come in above the high end of revenues by say, two billion, it won't deserve a revision....And that is a really good number! But the secret sauce might be GM. If we come in at 37.5 or (gasp) 38% we could really goose the earnings...helped as always by a somewhat lower share count. The GM "beat" should be helped by the second year of the 5s form factor, the ease of production of the 5c, the apparent better than hoped production of the Ipad mini retina, the enormous success of the Ipad Air, what seems to be gravitation to higher memories and more profitable form factors across the board, a good if not great Mac season (unlike last year) and the supply chain efficiency in general. Everything seems to be "working as hoped" right now....best of all worlds. So, at 59 billion in revenues, a GM of 37.75.....share count of 890 million....?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 10:39:25 GMT -8
Wasn't really referring to that, but people are looking for a big earning beat on record iPhone, ipad and holiday sales, but if we fall within guidance, it definitely wont be a blowout. Of course I agree that next Q guidance will trump all. Actually, depending on what you consider a blowout, it could be done. I agree that if we come in above the high end of revenues by say, two billion, it won't deserve a revision....And that is a really good number! But the secret sauce might be GM. If we come in at 37.5 or (gasp) 38% we could really goose the earnings...helped as always by a somewhat lower share count. The GM "beat" should be helped by the second year of the 5s form factor, the ease of production of the 5c, the apparent better than hoped production of the Ipad mini retina, the enormous success of the Ipad Air, what seems to be gravitation to higher memories and more profitable form factors across the board, a good if not great Mac season (unlike last year) and the supply chain efficiency in general. Everything seems to be "working as hoped" right now....best of all worlds. So, at 59 billion in revenues, a GM of 37.75.....share count of 890 million....? On year end numbers as of September 28, 2013 Apple had 931M shares still outstanding, at least according to the Diluted Shares. I realize the actual share count is lower than the Diluted Shares, but isn't EPS based off of the Diluted number? I doubt AAPL is going to purchase 40M shares in the current quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 10:59:55 GMT -8
900M, rounded. I'm using 896M for my FQ1 2014 EPS # Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 11:12:00 GMT -8
900M, rounded. I'm using 896M for my FQ1 2014 EPS # Where do you get that from though? Apple's 10K filed at the end of September shows "Shares Used In Computing Earnings Per Share" as 925M Basic 931M Diluted
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 23, 2013 11:24:20 GMT -8
Making a run thru the highs of the day. Come on 570!
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Post by macwire on Dec 23, 2013 11:26:48 GMT -8
Boom. Short covering shall commence
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 11:30:07 GMT -8
Congrats to the longs!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 11:38:25 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 11:40:07 GMT -8
Congrats to the longs! Yes, indeed! CM + Price upgrades + Positive Sentiment + Earnings + Guidance + Tim's Letter to Employees = Green Apples
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Post by terps530 on Dec 23, 2013 11:53:23 GMT -8
570 is being stubborn but its days (or minutes) are numbered.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 11:54:04 GMT -8
OK, but you're using the numbers off Page 48 that show the exact share count...shouldn't you be using the numbers from Page 45 on that same filing? That's what Apple uses to give EPS numbers, which is the headline number that people care about.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:00:40 GMT -8
Looks like another Mercel mistake. ;D I kid, I kid. Here's the share count to use: www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/10/28Apple-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-Results.htmlIt was 909M diluted shares as of Q4 end. Buyback still in progress, so that # will continue to decrease over the next year or so, not exceptionally quickly without a bond issue (who knows) or corporate tax/cash repatriation reform (haha no, as they say)
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 23, 2013 12:06:55 GMT -8
Ok, we got a bump today. Now the question is how does the stock react going forward? I just can't see sellers outnumbering buyers as we move forward from here.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:10:31 GMT -8
Looks like another Mercel mistake. ;D I kid, I kid. Here's the share count to use: www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/10/28Apple-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-Results.htmlIt was 909M diluted shares as of Q4 end. Buyback still in progress, so that # will continue to decrease over the next year or so, not exceptionally quickly without a bond issue (who knows) or corporate tax/cash repatriation reform (haha no, as they say) Come on, guys I gave you the 899M share count near the beginning of the quarter per the 10k on PAGE 1. It's a basic, not diluted number.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:12:16 GMT -8
I know, but I go with diluted shares. Official is official.
Not sure how much $40B-ish domestic cash reserve AAPL is comfortable using on buybacks. There's obviously cash flow before decreasing the cash balance (it should be substantial) but Apple's probably used all $17B in bond financing by now.
Anyone expecting Apple to net purchase anything close to the 15M shares it did last quarter?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:14:08 GMT -8
OK, but you're using the numbers off Page 48 that show the exact share count...shouldn't you be using the numbers from Page 45 on that same filing? That's what Apple uses to give EPS numbers, which is the headline number that people care about. See above. Pretty self-explanatory. The 10k publishes the share count on page 1 of the 10K at the beginning of the quarter. NO ONE KNOWS what the diluted # for the Dec. quarter will be. I'm estimating 896M, net of weighting in the current quarter (and stock options and repurchases).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:16:16 GMT -8
Best part Mercel, "I don't care much" about share count boosting EPS, now that sheer revs/earnings growth power will be the theme for 2014. ;D
It'll be refreshing to see iOS product growth rate have a roughly 1:1 relationship (or better) with revs growth and net income growth. Happy days Fair compares are here again!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:18:28 GMT -8
At this stage, I think Apple will use the balance of cash budgeted for share buyback to mitigate impact from stock options. I do not expect anything like FQ3 share reduction. FQ4 share count change was the clue.
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stub
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Post by stub on Dec 23, 2013 12:18:42 GMT -8
Looks like another Mercel mistake. ;D I kid, I kid. Here's the share count to use: www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/10/28Apple-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-Results.htmlIt was 909M diluted shares as of Q4 end. Buyback still in progress, so that # will continue to decrease over the next year or so, not exceptionally quickly without a bond issue (who knows) or corporate tax/cash repatriation reform (haha no, as they say) but hold it, this was dated back in Oct 2013. A lot could have changed since then. My guess is, the buybacks are all done. I could be jumping the gun on this, but... I sincerely believe the general trend is all UP from here on out. Call me an foolish optimist.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 23, 2013 12:21:11 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:21:45 GMT -8
Apple said $100B capital return. $60B buyback (though the original $10B program is probably finished).
So far, Apple may have expended $20-25B max of the $50B program on buybacks. Apple doesn't _have_ to get to $50B, but I suspect it will "look like it's trying", unless there's a sudden share price spike.
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Post by twrx on Dec 23, 2013 12:30:08 GMT -8
Congrats to the longs! +1 Anyone sell on news today?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:31:26 GMT -8
So you agree it's 925M Basic and 931M Diluted? WRONG. I give up. Vitalogy was quoting the share count wrong. I gave him the easiest # to research on Page 1 of the 10K (basic, not diluted, as disclosed). Last post. You guys need to do your own homework.
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