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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 23, 2013 13:37:55 GMT -8
Ditto+ Google is up another $8 on no news, trading above $1,100; It's obscene. Watch for rotation in early January, if not before. Obscene. Obnoxious. Other undesirable O-words. Where are all the articles on the Law of Large Numbers?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 23, 2013 13:38:37 GMT -8
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!! About friggin time too. (I hate when the market / other tech goes up, and AAPL goes down. Other way around works just fine, however. ;D ) In the car en route to in-laws. On my iPad. Have I mentioned that I love my iPad? 4,957 times to be exact..... Heehee. I see what you did there.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 13:40:55 GMT -8
, if they can't close the gap in first 90 min, expect continuation (up). I expect more up... Woohoo! In all seriousness, technicals, fundamentals, news/story are all aligned and bullish. I almost can't remember the last time that happened, though I have a short memory. Nothing's ever guaranteed, but I have to say I like these odds.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 13:41:54 GMT -8
BigPhone in May? They never stop trying. Apple could break the "iOS before iPhone religion" - but it has yet to do it. Just my opinion, but rumors of very early iPhone refreshes/new model releases are the worst possible negative for demand of the current iPhone, and are the worst type of FUD (despite the positivity of the rumor). Unsubstantiated early iPhone rumors should be burned with fire on first sight.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 23, 2013 13:43:02 GMT -8
I can't wait for the ridiculous range of estimates for iphone sales for next quarter. The april earnings release is going to be SPECULATION-NATION.
The sad reality is all analysts will predict (aka randomly guess based on joke supply checks) 50million iphones from china mobile alone, so then when Apple falls short, the stock will tank.
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Post by rickag on Dec 23, 2013 13:43:59 GMT -8
Really solid day.... And I stand by my estimated share count. I believe Apple was in the market strongly this quarter because they knew more than any of us....about....what is coming..... +1
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 13:44:20 GMT -8
I wouldn't worry about that. Digitimes has highly questionable credibility, and that's on a good day. Not much you can do about those reports.
Those reports of super-constrained iPad mini retina displays has proven all kinds of LOL. Only 2.2M shipments in this quarter. Sure.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 13:45:19 GMT -8
I can't wait for the ridiculous range of estimates for iphone sales for next quarter. The april earnings release is going to be SPECULATION-NATION. The sad reality is all analysts will predict (aka randomly guess based on joke supply checks) 50million iphones from china mobile alone, so then when Apple falls short, the stock will tank. Uh what There should be plenty of signals that short-dated trades aren't a very wise idea by then Besides, look at analyst guesses now...not exactly 50M tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/12/23/apple-china-mobile-iphone-4/
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 23, 2013 13:45:37 GMT -8
Very happy with today's performance. But can anybody explain WTF is going on with FB and TWTR today? Up 4.5% and up 6%. Did they just announce access to 750 million new customers or something? Of course not. Super-high-beta social media/tech momo madness. Then again, TSLA For those who play those names (I do very occasionally), be careful, and be prepared to think in friggin' intraday terms. ROFL!! Love it!!
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 23, 2013 14:00:21 GMT -8
Obscene. Obnoxious. Other undesirable O-words. Obamacare? C'mon, had to take that opening. This!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 14:08:41 GMT -8
Not the biggest fan of Ben Reitzes, esp. that $585 target (subject to change, I bet), but he does make a good point here: (emphasis mine) Ben also mentioned that in the Q4 2013 CC. It's an important point. Growing in China is quite the accomplishment. tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/12/23/apple-china-mobile-analysts/
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Post by wildguess on Dec 23, 2013 14:08:55 GMT -8
Letter to employees
Team,
This holiday season, tens of millions of people around the world, from all walks of life, are experiencing Apple products for the first time. Those moments of surprise and delight are magical, and they’re all made possible by your hard work. As many of us prepare to celebrate the holidays with our loved ones, I’d like to take a moment to reflect on what we’ve achieved together over the past year.
First and foremost, we introduced industry-leading products in each of our major categories in 2013, showing the breadth and depth of innovation at Apple. We extended our lead in the smartphone market with iPhone 5s; launched iOS 7, an extraordinarily ambitious project; released OS X Mavericks for free to our customers; introduced the iPad Air and the iPad mini with Retina display; and this week began shipping the Mac Pro from a manufacturing facility in Austin, Texas. We also marked our 50 billionth download on the App Store – a milestone no one could have predicted we would reach so quickly.
Together we’ve shown the world that innovation at Apple goes beyond our products to the way we do business and how we give back to our community. This year, Apple raised and donated tens of millions of dollars for important charities and relief efforts like Red Cross aid to typhoon victims in the Philippines, and we continue to be the largest contributor to (PRODUCT)RED, supporting the Global Fund in its fight against the spread of AIDS in Africa. Just a few weeks ago, Jony Ive led an unprecedented effort that brought money and awareness to eliminating the transmission of AIDS from mother to child.
And finally, Apple is standing up for what we believe is right. We know that equality and diversity make our company and our society stronger, so we’ve urged the U.S. Congress to support workplace protections against discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. We are also laser focused on our contribution to several environmental initiatives and we will increase our efforts even more in this area in the future.
We have a lot to look forward to in 2014, including some big plans that we think customers are going to love. I am extremely proud to stand alongside you as we put innovation to work serving humankind’s deepest values and highest aspirations. I consider myself the luckiest person in the world for the opportunity to work at this amazing company with all of you.
Happy Holidays,
Tim
– Rex Crum
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 14:17:12 GMT -8
Nice to see that Tim is laser focused...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 23, 2013 14:21:55 GMT -8
Nice to see that Tim is laser focused... Laser focused on that North Star!
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Post by terps530 on Dec 23, 2013 14:52:20 GMT -8
I can't wait for the ridiculous range of estimates for iphone sales for next quarter. The april earnings release is going to be SPECULATION-NATION. The sad reality is all analysts will predict (aka randomly guess based on joke supply checks) 50million iphones from china mobile alone, so then when Apple falls short, the stock will tank. Uh what There should be plenty of signals that short-dated trades aren't a very wise idea by then Besides, look at analyst guesses now...not exactly 50M tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/12/23/apple-china-mobile-iphone-4/Mav you are the king of figurative posts, but you take everything else so literally! 50million is an exaggeration hehe, but as you linked you can see my point of how drastic the range of estimates is.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 14:55:39 GMT -8
As it relates to C2014 unit sales to CM we don't KNOW anything, but we can make serious estimates with historical numbers derived from competitor performance. Horace did an excellent job with his MOQ analysis. If we apply the lower of his range to CM's 3G subscriber base we get ~17,000,000 iPhones for C2014. Using Apple's 10K I estimated China Unicom's and China Telecom's consumption of iPhones at ~12 million per year. China Mobile is larger than Unicom and Telecom combined. This implies that China Mobile will consume at least 12 million iPhones during C2014. I think 17 million units is the upper limit of sales. PED's analyst consensus is at 19 million. I think it very reasonable to estimate between 3 million and 5 million units per quarter. The point isn't to be closer to actual than others, but to arrive at estimates from which you develop a Guidance estimate. The variance between your estimate and Apple's Guidance should tell you volumes about the ensuing quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 15:09:26 GMT -8
Well: 24M >> 15M net share settlement 909M (diluted) end of last quarter So it depends. Though I'm at 900M and feeling _that_ might be "a bit aggressive". Again, effective Oct 18, 2013, we know that Apple repurchased another 4M basic shares (904 EOQ - 900 Oct. 18), so the starting point is probably more like 905M (909 EOQ - 4) for diluted share count near the beginning of the quarter. This isn't going to make the rocket go THAT much higher, but 57+ iPhones and FQ2 guidance will.I agree. I can't understand the infatuation with share count and EPS. Apple's Net Income is going to be essentially FLAT YoY. That metric is far more important than EPS. Guidance will alert us to Apple's Net Income expectations for FQ2/2014, and THAT is what will drive AAPL. I'm modeling FQ2/2014 YoY Net Income growth of 30%. We haven't seen Net Income growth higher than that since FQ2/2012.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 15:11:45 GMT -8
The $64,000 question for fiscal Q2 guidance: Will Oppenheimer find a way to minimize China Mobile iPhone sales in the guidance? We're in that gray area between "dude, you've gotta be dialed into the pre-order numbers, not to mention your carrier agreement" and "technically, iPhone 5S and 5C only began selling to China Mobile customers in fiscal Q2, so Oppenheimer can use the cover of 'uncertainty' one last time."
Long-term AAPL longs have no real need to care about this, but as a trader, I care a heck of a lot. ;D
Well, I'll just try my best to track estimates as I go. Need to start pre-forecasting fiscal Q2 ASAP.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 15:20:38 GMT -8
Again, effective Oct 18, 2013, we know that Apple repurchased another 4M basic shares (904 EOQ - 900 Oct. 18), so the starting point is probably more like 905M (909 EOQ - 4) for diluted share count near the beginning of the quarter. This isn't going to make the rocket go THAT much higher, but 57+ iPhones and FQ2 guidance will.I agree. I can't understand the infatuation with share count and EPS. Apple's Net Income is going to be essentially FLAT YoY. That metric is far more important than EPS. Guidance will alert us to Apple's Net Income expectations for FQ2/2014, and THAT is what will drive AAPL. I'm modeling FQ2/2014 YoY Net Income growth of 30%. We haven't seen Net Income growth higher than that since FQ2/2012. I think most investors invest based on EPS or PE (which is based on EPS). In my opinion, the most important metric is EPS and EPS growth.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 15:20:41 GMT -8
I ventured over at Stocktwits today (I know, scary) and came upon the following post. I've emailed CNBC producers with a similar message. Melissa Lee gets the prize for JD's dumb bunny Lifetime Achievement Award.
PhoenixPhlair9 $AAPL Jeez does M Lee, who better find a salad bar, think by dissing AAPL her ratings wiil increase? No wonder show likely off air in 2014
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 23, 2013 15:24:49 GMT -8
Nice to see that Tim is laser focused... Laser focused on that North Star! Also really cool that TC considers us part of the "team" and posts here!
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Post by sponge on Dec 23, 2013 15:28:32 GMT -8
Laser focused on that North Star! Also really cool that TC considers us part of the "team" and posts here! LOL I am part of the team. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 15:30:49 GMT -8
Took the ten minutes to sketch out fiscal Q2.
Can Oppenheimer bring himself to guide within a range that includes $50B? Hmm...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 15:33:41 GMT -8
Early close tomorrow, trading's done by 1PM Eastern. Last-minute Christmas shopping for AAPL? ;D
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 23, 2013 15:42:33 GMT -8
Early close tomorrow, trading's done by 1PM Eastern. Last-minute Christmas shopping for AAPL? ;D Other than that really mini-slip to 563 and change we showed no signs of weakness today. Anybody who wanted to pull us down could not do it...and then 2:14 P.M. EST came along and we pushed to 570 ;D So do YOU want to be short Apple on December 25 when China Mobile pre-orders begin? Maybe a crashing server or two? ;D Better buy tomorrow......
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Post by sponge on Dec 23, 2013 17:11:48 GMT -8
I would feel bullish if we can close above 575 tomorrow.
No confident we will however.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 17:16:23 GMT -8
Need to start pre-forecasting fiscal Q2 ASAP. YES !!!!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 17:21:15 GMT -8
I think most investors invest based on EPS or PE (which is based on EPS). In my opinion, the most important metric is EPS and EPS growth. EPS is Net Income sided by Share Count. Why would you think a metric, that fluctuates based on stock/option grants or share buybacks, is the most important? Its wide use is nothing more than a reflection of how easy it is to calculate. I dare say, most have no idea why the metric was even created. It most definitely was not to measure the value of a Company.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 17:23:18 GMT -8
Took the ten minutes to sketch out fiscal Q2. Can Oppenheimer bring himself to guide within a range that includes $50B? Hmm... Napkins must be plentiful in your house.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 18:56:02 GMT -8
I think most investors invest based on EPS or PE (which is based on EPS). In my opinion, the most important metric is EPS and EPS growth. EPS is Net Income sided by Share Count. Why would you think a metric, that fluctuates based on stock/option grants or share buybacks, is the most important? Its wide use is nothing more than a reflection of how easy it is to calculate. I dare say, most have no idea why the metric was even created. It most definitely was not to measure the value of a Company. If a company issues 20% more shares but only increases net income by 10% that's worse than a company that only increases net income by 5% but reduces share count by 10%. I'll add that the reason I feel this is true is because with a decreasing share count, I own a larger piece of the company and my earnings per share are higher in the second case
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