Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:34:27 GMT -8
OK, but you're using the numbers off Page 48 that show the exact share count...shouldn't you be using the numbers from Page 45 on that same filing? That's what Apple uses to give EPS numbers, which is the headline number that people care about. See above. Pretty self-explanatory. The 10k publishes the share count on page 1 of the 10K at the beginning of the quarter. NO ONE KNOWS what the diluted # for the Dec. quarter will be. I'm estimating 896M, net of weighting in the current quarter (and stock options and repurchases). I'm not trying to argue with you...I might be wrong, but I'm just trying to figure out an estimate for calculating EPS for next quarter. As of last quarter though, Apple had 931M shares outstanding that are used to calculate EPS. I personally don't care that they have 899M shares issued if that's not the number they're using to report EPS. I would estimate using around 925M shares to calculate EPS for January.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 23, 2013 12:34:50 GMT -8
Very happy with today's performance.
But can anybody explain WTF is going on with FB and TWTR today? Up 4.5% and up 6%. Did they just announce access to 750 million new customers or something?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:35:41 GMT -8
Or, you can just follow the quarterly earnings releases - that's the easiest way to keep track of share count on an at-a-glance level.
If you're not starting from 909M and reducing some number from there (I mean, buyback program still not over, after all), you need to be.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:36:54 GMT -8
Very happy with today's performance. But can anybody explain WTF is going on with FB and TWTR today? Up 4.5% and up 6%. Did they just announce access to 750 million new customers or something? Of course not. Super-high-beta social media/tech momo madness. Then again, TSLA For those who play those names (I do very occasionally), be careful, and be prepared to think in friggin' intraday terms.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:37:09 GMT -8
With that said, nice to see you again $570
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 23, 2013 12:40:21 GMT -8
So you agree it's 925M Basic and 931M Diluted? WRONG. I give up. Vitalogy was quoting the share count wrong. I gave him the easiest # to research on Page 1 of the 10K (basic, not diluted, as disclosed). Last post. You guys need to do your own homework. Merry Christmas to all! It was
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:42:24 GMT -8
See above. Pretty self-explanatory. The 10k publishes the share count on page 1 of the 10K at the beginning of the quarter. NO ONE KNOWS what the diluted # for the Dec. quarter will be. I'm estimating 896M, net of weighting in the current quarter (and stock options and repurchases). I'm not trying to argue with you...I might be wrong, but I'm just trying to figure out an estimate for calculating EPS for next quarter. As of last quarter though, Apple had 931M shares outstanding that are used to calculate EPS. I personally don't care that they have 899M shares issued if that's not the number they're using to report EPS. I would estimate using around 925M shares to calculate EPS for January. Last post +1: The diluted share count was 909M at FQ4. There's a relationship between diluted (909) and basic (904), so you should care. Apple reported 899M in October (see the link). If the same relationship held, then Apple was close to 904M near the beginning of FQ1 14. 925M shares at the end of FQ1 2014 is going the OPPOSITE direction of both basic and diluted shares. It's more likely to be less than 904M diluted, not higher, at end of FQ1 2014. Cheers to the LOOOOONGS.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:42:58 GMT -8
IGNORE the 10-k. Look at the quarterly release.
On a for-the-year basis, Apple HAS to blend/average fiscal-quarter-end share counts. Because they were higher in Q1 and lower in Q4.
It'll be the same for the 2014 annual report, as long as net share settlement continues (and I think the buyback program may be expanded). The "diluted shares in 2014" will be lower than Q1 count, but higher than Q4 count. Bank on it.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:43:45 GMT -8
September 2013
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:44:46 GMT -8
September 2013 +909M. Start from there, home gamers. That's all there is to it.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:45:48 GMT -8
AAPL's shown it can break above 570 today. Feeling lucky...bears...?
I figure their best opportunity is Wednesday or whenever pricing is announced - of course, it's not a given pricing will be "too expensive" (cough what happened in Japan with 5S promotions cough).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:46:09 GMT -8
September 2013 +909M. Start from there, home gamers. That's all there is to it. Yep.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 23, 2013 12:54:19 GMT -8
Best part Mercel, "I don't care much" about share count boosting EPS, now that sheer revs/earnings growth power will be the theme for 2014. Good, because neither does WS or analysts, since Apple's share buyback scheme is the most publicized in history. It's not as if WS and all the ANALists don't know its effect on EPS...they will reward organic EPS growth, and punish its decline. Hopefully we are done with that decline part. Anyway, cheers to the longs. Not sure why we are up today though, since CM has been "priced in" for some time.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:56:06 GMT -8
IGNORE the 10-k. Look at the quarterly release. On a for-the-year basis, Apple HAS to blend/average fiscal-quarter-end share counts. Because they were higher in Q1 and lower in Q4. It'll be the same for the 2014 annual report, as long as net share settlement continues (and I think the buyback program may be expanded). The "diluted shares in 2014" will be lower than Q1 count, but higher than Q4 count. Bank on it. Ahhh then this is where I made my mistake. I was using the Annual 10K, not the quarterly. I didn't realize there was a difference. Thanks for clearing it up guys
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 12:56:12 GMT -8
See above. Pretty self-explanatory. The 10k publishes the share count on page 1 of the 10K at the beginning of the quarter. NO ONE KNOWS what the diluted # for the Dec. quarter will be. I'm estimating 896M, net of weighting in the current quarter (and stock options and repurchases). I'm not trying to argue with you...I might be wrong, but I'm just trying to figure out an estimate for calculating EPS for next quarter. As of last quarter though, Apple had 931M shares outstanding that are used to calculate EPS. I personally don't care that they have 899M shares issued if that's not the number they're using to report EPS. I would estimate using around 925M shares to calculate EPS for January. I think you are using the average weighted amount for the fiscal YEAR ended September, whereas the quarterly end is what you need to be looking at for the closest likely share count to the December quarter.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 12:58:57 GMT -8
Just a WAG ;D - that decline part is pretty much a non-factor after the first part of fiscal 2014. "ASP" compares are much better even with the higher deferrals. Good enough that iPad ASP decline may start reversing itself YOY.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 13:01:08 GMT -8
570 close. Baby.
|
|
|
Post by pauls on Dec 23, 2013 13:02:29 GMT -8
It's all good. Great even. Lovely holiday week so far. Xmas started Sunday night.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,189
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 23, 2013 13:05:07 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 23, 2013 13:09:55 GMT -8
Really solid day.... And I stand by my estimated share count. I believe Apple was in the market strongly this quarter because they knew more than any of us....about....what is coming.....
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 13:23:32 GMT -8
What was your estimated share count, Red?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 13:23:41 GMT -8
I think I'm a bit aggressive at 896M (diluted) for FQ1 14, so we'll see.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 23, 2013 13:25:04 GMT -8
Vaulting over the daily SMA-20 is an excellent start. iPad - Standard Gap rules still apply with fundamental news of this magnitude? IMHO, yes. Mainly, if they can't close the gap in first 90 min, expect continuation (up). I expect more up...
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2013 13:25:49 GMT -8
Well:
24M >> 15M net share settlement
909M (diluted) end of last quarter
So it depends. Though I'm at 900M and feeling _that_ might be "a bit aggressive".
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 23, 2013 13:26:28 GMT -8
Vaulting over the daily SMA-20 is an excellent start. Pre market reject of 575! First test of resistance / support usually holds. Let's see what happens on the retest.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 23, 2013 13:27:52 GMT -8
Bought at 570. Nice action today.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 23, 2013 13:28:43 GMT -8
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!! About friggin time too. (I hate when the market / other tech goes up, and AAPL goes down. Other way around works just fine, however. ;D ) In the car en route to in-laws. On my iPad. Have I mentioned that I love my iPad?
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 23, 2013 13:32:52 GMT -8
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!! About friggin time too. (I hate when the market / other tech goes up, and AAPL goes down. Other way around works just fine, however. ;D ) In the car en route to in-laws. On my iPad. Have I mentioned that I love my iPad? 4,957 times to be exact.....
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2013 13:33:32 GMT -8
Well: 24M >> 15M net share settlement 909M (diluted) end of last quarter So it depends. Though I'm at 900M and feeling _that_ might be "a bit aggressive". Again, effective Oct 18, 2013, we know that Apple repurchased another 4M basic shares (904 EOQ - 900 Oct. 18), so the starting point is probably more like 905M (909 EOQ - 4) for diluted share count near the beginning of the quarter. This isn't going to make the rocket go THAT much higher, but 57+ iPhones and FQ2 guidance will.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 23, 2013 13:36:52 GMT -8
What was your estimated share count, Red? I'm shooting for 890 million...but I know its aggressive
|
|